Scenario Development - Conference Planning and Management

ucs.iastate.edu

Scenario Development - Conference Planning and Management

Interagency Transportation,

Land Use, and Climate

Change Pilot Project

Cape Cod

Transportation Planning, Land Use, and Air Quality Conference

May 10, 2011

San Antonio, TX


Overview

• Purpose

• Partnerships

• Tasks

• Site description

• Focus areas

Scenario development

Scenario assessment

• Outcomes

• Conclusion

• Q & A

2


Purpose

• Initiative of the Federal Interagency Working Group on

Transportation, Land Use, and Climate Change

– Integrated regional planning and development

– Intermodal gateway mobility planning

• Goals

– Climate change planning at local level

• GHG mitigation

• Adaptation to SLR

Scenario planning

– Interagency coordination

– Replicability

3


Partnerships

• Participants

– Federal funding sponsors and supporting federal agencies

– State agencies

– Regional and local agencies / governments

• Barnstable County and 15 towns

– Private and academic entities

4


Tasks

• Tasks

– Project definition and site selection

– Partnerships, resources, and data collection

– Identification of strategies to reduce transportation related GHG emissions

– Identification of vulnerable areas to inform land use and transit planning

decisions

Scenario development and assessment

– Outputs and next steps

5


Site: Cape Cod

• 15 towns, 412 square miles, and

approximately 65 miles long

• Strong regional government

• Significant summer population and

visitation

• Vulnerable to hurricanes,

nor’easters, sea level rise

Sources: MassGIS / Place Matters

6


Cape Cod: community and natural and

recreational resource

Sources: Cape Cod National Seashore and Volpe Center

7


Focus: GHG Mitigation

• Research

– Moving Cooler: An Analysis of Transportation Strategies for Reducing

Greenhouse Gas Emissions

• Policy strategies

– Pricing strategies

– Land use and smart growth strategies

– Non-motorized transportation strategies

– Public transportation strategies

– Regional ride-sharing, car-sharing, and commuting strategies

– Operational and intelligent transportation system (ITS) strategies

– Vehicle efficiency and alternative fuel strategies

Scenario evaluation: change in density and transit access

8


Focus: Adaptation to SLR

• Expert elicitation identified

“Areas of Concern”

– Elevation

– Exposure to storm surge

– Erosion

– Flooding history

– Lack of redundant

transportation access

– Potential SLR impacts

• Areas of concern incorporated

into scenario development

9


Scenario Development

2030

• Pre-run scenarios

• Workshop

• Refined scenario

Dispersed

?

Transportation

Standard

Enhanced

Development

Targeted

Transportation

Standard

Enhanced

10


Scenario Development

• Workshop

– Interactive, GIS-based decision-support technology

– Placement of chips for housing and employment

– Real-time updating of indicators

Source: Volpe Center (November 2010)

11


12

Workshop Input


13

Trend – Housing


14

Dispersed – Housing


15

Targeted – Housing


16

Refined – Housing


Scenario Assessment

• Assessment indicators

– Greenhouse gas emissions

– Vehicle miles traveled

– Percent of new population in vulnerable areas

– Percent of population in priority habitats, undeveloped lands,

conservation areas

– Percent of population in historic preservation areas, water

resource/wellhead protection areas

– Percent of new population and employees served by transit

17


0

-1

Scenario

Assessment

0 0

Trend

Percent Change from Trend in Regional GHG

Dispersed Targeted -

- Standard Standard

50

45

40

35

30

25

20

15

10

5

0

28.3

29.7

Trend Dispersed -

Standard

Table A Table B Table C Table D Refined

Percent of New Population in Vulnerable Areas

44.0

Targeted -

Standard

37.5

19.1

15.0

24.9

20.4

Table A Table B Table C Table D Refined

-2

-3

-4

-5

-4.9

-4.6 -4.5

-4.8

-4.4 -4.4

-6

18


Scenario Assessment

Indicator Trend Dispersed - Targeted -

Table A Table B Table C Table D Refined

Standard Standard

Population Served by Transit

7.2 16.7 43.1* 44.9 18 24.1 31.1 24.7

New Jobs Served by Transit

Population in Critical Habitat Areas

Land Area Developed

New Population in Undeveloped

Lands

Population in Other High Priority

Conservation Area

Population in Historic Preservation

Areas

Population in Water Resource

Areas

Population in Water Resource

Areas in Low Density Areas

Population in Wellhead Protection

Areas

Population in Wellhead Protection

Areas in Low Density Areas

24.7 21.7 46.3* 47.1 11.6 13.9 26.4 33.3

49.6 49.6 20.9 25.7 40.6 31.6 20.7 14.2*

33.3 29.9 0.0* 1.9 1.7 0.0* 2.8 4.5

41.1 36.4 31.1 15.1 35.7 28.6 15.6 12.4*

64.4 62.1 31.4 31.5 54 38.2 29.9 25.2*

4.8 5.1 6.4 8 0.4 0.2 1.7 0.1*

47.9 41.4 39.9 21.5* 52.4 43.1 32 47.8

41.1 36.4 31.1 15.1 35.7 28.6 15.6 12.4*

33.4 30.1 36.4 15.5 32.6 32.9 28.1 42

33.3 29.9 0.0* 1.9 1.7 0.0* 2.8 4.5

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Outcomes and Next Steps (in progress)

• Tangibles

– “Guidebook” – documentation, evaluation, recommendations

– “Action Plans”

• Cape Cod Commission

• National Park Service

– Cape Cod National Seashore

– Northeast Region / Washington Office

• US Fish & Wildlife Service (national/regional)

• Intangibles

– New partnerships

– Technology exposure/adoption

– Issue awareness

20


Preliminary Conclusions

• Pilot project

• Engagement of players

• Data collection, assumptions, and verification or vetting

• Many options at each step in process

• Difficulty in estimating impact of GHG emissions reduction policies

• Challenge of forecasting the impact of sea level rise

• Competing priorities and tradeoffs

• Partnership / coordination benefits

21


Q&A

• Contact information

– Ben Rasmussen, Community Planner, USDOT Volpe Center,

benjamin.rasmussen@dot.gov, 617-494-2768

Visit http://www.volpe.dot.gov/publiclands/projects/capecod5_interag.html

for the latest updates on the project, including final products

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