Market Briefing: Commitments of Traders

yardeni.com

Market Briefing: Commitments of Traders

Market Briefing:

Commitments of Traders

Yardeni Research, Inc.

July 25, 2014

Dr. Edward Yardeni

516-972-7683

eyardeni@yardeni.com

Mali Quintana

480-664-1333

aquintana@yardeni.com

Please visit our sites at

www.yardeni.com

blog.yardeni.com

thinking outside the box


Table Of Contents

Table Of Contents

Commitments of Traders:

Large Speculators 3-6

Currencies:

US Dollar Index 7

Australian Dollar 8

Canadian Dollar 9

Euro 10

Yen 11

Energy:

Crude Oil 12

Gasoline 13

Heating Oil 14

Natural Gas 15

Grains:

Corn 16

Soybeans 17

Soybean Meal 18

Soybean Oil 19

Wheat 20

Interest Rates:

Eurodollar 21

Fed Funds Rate 22

Treasury Notes (10-Year) 23

Treasury Notes (2-Year) 24

Metals:

Copper 25

Gold 26

Silver 27

Stocks:

Nikkei 28

S&P 500 29

July 25, 2014 / Market Briefing: Commitments of Traders

Yardeni Research, Inc.

www.yardeni.com


80000

60000

Figure 1.

S&P 500

(number of positions X $250)

Large Speculators

80000

60000

40000

20000

Large Speculators

40000

20000

0

7/22

0

-20000

-20000

-40000

-40000

-60000

-60000

-80000

96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Source: Haver Analytics.

-80000

800000

Figure 2.

10-YEAR US TREASURY NOTES

(contracts of $100,000 face value)

800000

600000

600000

400000

Large Speculator

400000

200000

200000

0

7/22

0

-200000

-200000

-400000

96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Source: Haver Analytics.

yardeni.com

-400000

Page 3 / July 25, 2014 / Market Briefing: Commitments of Traders

Yardeni Research, Inc.

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60000

Figure 3.

COPPER GRADE

(contracts of 25,000 lbs)

Large Speculators

60000

40000

Large Speculator

40000

20000

20000

7/22

0

0

-20000

-20000

-40000

89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Source: Haver Analytics.

yardeni.com

-40000

300000

Figure 4.

GOLD

(contracts of 100 Troy oz)

300000

200000

Large Speculator

200000

7/22

100000

100000

0

0

-100000

96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Source: Haver Analytics.

yardeni.com

-100000

Page 4 / July 25, 2014 / Market Briefing: Commitments of Traders

Yardeni Research, Inc.

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Large Speculators

60000

Figure 5.

US DOLLAR INDEX

(US dollar index x $1,000)

POUND STERLING

(contracts of 62,500 Pound Sterling)

125000

100000

40000

75000

20000

7/22

7/22

50000

25000

0

0

-25000

-20000

-50000

-75000

-40000

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

-100000

200000

150000

EURO FX

(contracts of 125,000 Euros)

CANADIAN DOLLAR

(contracts of 100,000 Canadian Dollars)

125000

100000

100000

75000

50000

50000

0

7/22

25000

-50000

0

-100000

7/22

-25000

-150000

-50000

-200000

-75000

-250000

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

-100000

100000

50000

JAPANESE YEN

(contracts of 12,500,000 Japanese Yen)

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR

(contracts of 100,000 Australian Dollars)

125000

100000

75000

0

-50000

7/22

7/22

50000

25000

0

-100000

-25000

-150000

-50000

-75000

-200000

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

yardeni.com

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

-100000

Source: Haver Analytics.

Page 5 / July 25, 2014 / Market Briefing: Commitments of Traders

Yardeni Research, Inc.

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500000

450000

400000

350000

300000

250000

200000

150000

100000

50000

0

-50000

-100000

100000

Figure 6.

LIGHT SWEET CRUDE OIL (WTI)

(contracts of 1,000 barrels)

89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

GASOLINE

(contracts of 42,000 US gallons)

Large Speculators

7/22

500000

450000

400000

350000

300000

250000

200000

150000

100000

50000

0

-50000

-100000

100000

50000

7/22

50000

0

0

-50000

350000

300000

250000

200000

150000

100000

50000

0

-50000

-100000

-150000

-200000

89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

SOYBEANS

(contracts of 5,000 bushels)

89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Source: Haver Analytics.

7/22

yardeni.com

-50000

350000

300000

250000

200000

150000

100000

50000

0

-50000

-100000

-150000

-200000

Page 6 / July 25, 2014 / Market Briefing: Commitments of Traders

Yardeni Research, Inc.

www.yardeni.com


US Dollar Index

10000

8000

6000

4000

2000

0

-2000

-4000

-6000

-8000

-10000

-12000

Figure 7.

US DOLLAR INDEX

(US dollar index x $1,000)

Total Reportable Net Position

(Long position minus short position)

89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

7/22

10000

8000

6000

4000

2000

0

-2000

-4000

-6000

-8000

-10000

-12000

40000

40000

20000

Commercial Hedger

20000

0

0

-20000

-40000

7/22

-20000

-40000

-60000

89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

-60000

60000

60000

40000

40000

20000

Large Speculator

7/22

20000

0

0

-20000

-20000

-40000

89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

-40000

12000

10000

8000

6000

4000

2000

0

-2000

-4000

-6000

7/22

Small Trader

yardeni.com

89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Source: New York Board of Trade, Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

12000

10000

8000

6000

4000

2000

0

-2000

-4000

-6000

Page 7 / July 25, 2014 / Market Briefing: Commitments of Traders

Yardeni Research, Inc.

www.yardeni.com


Australian Dollar

30000

20000

Figure 8.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR

(contracts of 100 Australian Dollars)

Total Reportable Net Position

(Long position minus short position)

30000

20000

10000

10000

0

0

-10000

-20000

-30000

93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

7/22

-10000

-20000

-30000

150000

100000

50000

0

-50000

-100000

-150000

Commercial Hedger

93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

7/22

150000

100000

50000

0

-50000

-100000

-150000

125000

100000

75000

50000

25000

0

-25000

-50000

-75000

-100000

Large Speculator

93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

7/22

125000

100000

75000

50000

25000

0

-25000

-50000

-75000

-100000

40000

30000

20000

10000

0

-10000

-20000

-30000

-40000

Small Trader

7/22

yardeni.com

93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Source: Chicago Mercantile Exchange, Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

40000

30000

20000

10000

0

-10000

-20000

-30000

-40000

Page 8 / July 25, 2014 / Market Briefing: Commitments of Traders

Yardeni Research, Inc.

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Canadian Dollar

30000

20000

10000

Figure 9.

CANADIAN DOLLAR

(contracts of 100 Canadian Dollars)

Total Reportable Net Position

(Long position minus short position)

30000

20000

10000

0

-10000

-20000

-30000

-40000

89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

7/22

0

-10000

-20000

-30000

-40000

100000

50000

Commercial Hedger

100000

50000

0

-50000

7/22

0

-50000

-100000

-100000

-150000

89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

-150000

125000

100000

75000

50000

25000

0

-25000

-50000

-75000

-100000

Large Speculator

89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

7/22

125000

100000

75000

50000

25000

0

-25000

-50000

-75000

-100000

40000

30000

20000

10000

0

-10000

-20000

Small Trader

7/22

yardeni.com

89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Source: Chicago Mercantile Exchange, Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

40000

30000

20000

10000

0

-10000

-20000

Page 9 / July 25, 2014 / Market Briefing: Commitments of Traders

Yardeni Research, Inc.

www.yardeni.com


Euro

60000

40000

Figure 10.

EURO FX

(contracts of 125,000 Euros)

Total Reportable Net Position

(Long position minus short position)

7/22

60000

40000

20000

20000

0

0

-20000

-20000

-40000

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

-40000

300000

250000

200000

150000

100000

50000

0

-50000

-100000

-150000

Commercial Hedger

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

7/22

300000

250000

200000

150000

100000

50000

0

-50000

-100000

-150000

150000

100000

50000

0

-50000

-100000

-150000

-200000

-250000

-300000

Large Speculator

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

7/22

150000

100000

50000

0

-50000

-100000

-150000

-200000

-250000

-300000

40000

40000

20000

20000

0

0

-20000

-40000

-60000

Small Trader

7/22

yardeni.com

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Source: Chicago Mercantile Exchange, Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

-20000

-40000

-60000

Page 10 / July 25, 2014 / Market Briefing: Commitments of Traders

Yardeni Research, Inc.

www.yardeni.com


60000

50000

40000

30000

20000

10000

0

-10000

-20000

-30000

-40000

Figure 11.

JAPANESE YEN

(contracts of 12,500,000 Japanese Yen)

Yen

Total Reportable Net Position

(Long position minus short position)

86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

7/22

60000

50000

40000

30000

20000

10000

0

-10000

-20000

-30000

-40000

250000

210000

170000

130000

90000

50000

10000

-30000

-70000

-110000

-150000

Commercial Hedger

86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

7/22

250000

210000

170000

130000

90000

50000

10000

-30000

-70000

-110000

-150000

100000

50000

0

-50000

-100000

-150000

-200000

Large Speculator

86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

7/22

100000

50000

0

-50000

-100000

-150000

-200000

40000

20000

0

-20000

-40000

-60000

Small Trader

7/22

yardeni.com

86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Source: Chicago Mercantile Exchange, Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

40000

20000

0

-20000

-40000

-60000

Page 11 / July 25, 2014 / Market Briefing: Commitments of Traders

Yardeni Research, Inc.

www.yardeni.com


Crude Oil

60000

40000

20000

0

-20000

-40000

-60000

Figure 12.

LIGHT SWEET CRUDE OIL (WTI)

(contracts of 1,000 barrels)

Total Reportable Net Position

(Long position minus short position)

86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

7/22

60000

40000

20000

0

-20000

-40000

-60000

150000

100000

50000

-50000 0

-100000

-150000

-200000

-250000

-300000

-350000

-400000

-450000

-500000

-550000

Commercial Hedgers

86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

7/22

150000

100000

50000

0

-50000

-100000

-150000

-200000

-250000

-300000

-350000

-400000

-450000

-500000

-550000

465000

405000

345000

285000

225000

165000

105000

45000

-15000

-75000

Large Speculators

86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

7/22

465000

405000

345000

285000

225000

165000

105000

45000

-15000

-75000

60000

40000

20000

0

-20000

-40000

-60000

7/22

Small Traders

yardeni.com

86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Source: New York Mercantile Exchange, Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

60000

40000

20000

0

-20000

-40000

-60000

Page 12 / July 25, 2014 / Market Briefing: Commitments of Traders

Yardeni Research, Inc.

www.yardeni.com


20000

15000

10000

5000

0

-5000

-10000

-15000

-20000

Figure 13.

GASOLINE BLENDSTOCK

(contracts of 42,000 US gallons)

Gasoline

Total Reportable Net Position

(Long position minus short position)

86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

7/22

20000

15000

10000

5000

0

-5000

-10000

-15000

-20000

30000

10000

-10000

-30000

-50000

-70000

-90000

-110000

-130000

Commercial Hedgers

86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

7/22

30000

10000

-10000

-30000

-50000

-70000

-90000

-110000

-130000

100000

50000

Large Speculators

7/22

100000

50000

0

0

-50000

86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

-50000

25000

20000

15000

10000

5000

0

-5000

-10000

-15000

Small Traders

7/22

yardeni.com

86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Source: New York Mercantile Exchange, Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

25000

20000

15000

10000

5000

0

-5000

-10000

-15000

Page 13 / July 25, 2014 / Market Briefing: Commitments of Traders

Yardeni Research, Inc.

www.yardeni.com


Heating Oil

20000

10000

0

Figure 14.

#2 HEATING OIL: NY HARBOR

(contracts of 42,000 US gallons)

Total Reportable Net Position

(Long position minus short position)

7/22

20000

10000

0

-10000

-10000

-20000

-20000

-30000

-30000

-40000

86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

-40000

0

Commercial Hedgers

7/22

0

-50000

-50000

-100000

86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

-100000

56000

46000

36000

26000

16000

6000

-4000

-14000

-24000

-34000

-44000

Large Speculators

86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

7/22

56000

46000

36000

26000

16000

6000

-4000

-14000

-24000

-34000

-44000

40000

30000

20000

10000

0

-10000

-20000

Small Traders

7/22

yardeni.com

86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Source: New York Mercantile Exchange, Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

40000

30000

20000

10000

0

-10000

-20000

Page 14 / July 25, 2014 / Market Briefing: Commitments of Traders

Yardeni Research, Inc.

www.yardeni.com


20000

10000

0

-10000

-20000

-30000

-40000

-50000

-60000

Figure 15.

NATURAL GAS

(contracts of 10,000 MMBTUs)

Natural Gas

Total Reportable Net Position

(Long position minus short position)

90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

7/22

20000

10000

0

-10000

-20000

-30000

-40000

-50000

-60000

250000

200000

150000

100000

50000

0

-50000

-100000

Commercial Hedgers

90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

7/22

250000

200000

150000

100000

50000

0

-50000

-100000

75000

25000

-25000

-75000

-125000

-175000

-225000

-275000

Large Speculators

90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

7/22

75000

25000

-25000

-75000

-125000

-175000

-225000

-275000

60000

50000

40000

30000

20000

10000

0

-10000

Small Traders

7/22

yardeni.com

90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Source: New York Mercantile Exchange, Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

60000

50000

40000

30000

20000

10000

0

-10000

Page 15 / July 25, 2014 / Market Briefing: Commitments of Traders

Yardeni Research, Inc.

www.yardeni.com


400000

300000

200000

100000

0

-100000

-200000

-300000

Figure 16.

CORN

(contracts of 5,000 bushels)

Corn

Total Reportable Net Position

(Long position minus short position)

86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

7/22

400000

300000

200000

100000

0

-100000

-200000

-300000

600000

400000

200000

0

-200000

-400000

-600000

Commercial Hedger

86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

7/22

600000

400000

200000

0

-200000

-400000

-600000

800000

600000

400000

200000

0

-200000

-400000

Large Speculator

86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

7/22

800000

600000

400000

200000

0

-200000

-400000

300000

200000

100000

0

-100000

-200000

-300000

-400000

Small Trader

7/22

yardeni.com

86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Source: Chicago Board of Trade, Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

300000

200000

100000

0

-100000

-200000

-300000

-400000

Page 16 / July 25, 2014 / Market Briefing: Commitments of Traders

Yardeni Research, Inc.

www.yardeni.com


Soybeans

200000

100000

Figure 17.

SOYBEANS

(contracts of 5,000 bushels)

7/22

200000

100000

0

0

-100000

-200000

Total Reportable Net Position

(Long position minus short position)

-100000

-200000

-300000

87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

-300000

200000

0

7/22

200000

0

-200000

Commercial Hedger

-200000

-400000

-400000

-600000

87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

-600000

300000

200000

100000

0

-100000

-200000

Large Speculator

87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

7/22

300000

200000

100000

0

-100000

-200000

300000

300000

200000

200000

100000

Small Trader

100000

0

-100000

yardeni.com

7/22

87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Source: Chicago Board of Trade, Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

0

-100000

Page 17 / July 25, 2014 / Market Briefing: Commitments of Traders

Yardeni Research, Inc.

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Soybean Meal

20000

10000

Figure 18.

SOYBEAN MEAL

(contracts of 100 tons)

Total Reportable Net Position

(Long position minus short position)

20000

10000

0

0

-10000

-20000

-30000

-40000

86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

7/22

-10000

-20000

-30000

-40000

50000

50000

0

0

-50000

-100000

Commercial Hedger

7/22

-50000

-100000

-150000

86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

-150000

150000

150000

100000

Large Speculator

100000

50000

0

7/22

50000

0

-50000

86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

-50000

40000

30000

20000

10000

0

-10000

Small Trader

7/22

yardeni.com

86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Source: Chicago Board of Trade, Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

40000

30000

20000

10000

0

-10000

Page 18 / July 25, 2014 / Market Briefing: Commitments of Traders

Yardeni Research, Inc.

www.yardeni.com


Soybean Oil

20000

10000

0

Figure 19.

SOYBEAN OIL

(contracts of 60,000 lbs)

Total Reportable Net Position

(Long position minus short position)

7/22

20000

10000

0

-10000

-10000

-20000

-20000

-30000

-30000

-40000

89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

-40000

100000

50000

0

-50000

-100000

-150000

Commercial Hedger

89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

7/22

100000

50000

0

-50000

-100000

-150000

100000

50000

0

Large Speculator

7/22

100000

50000

0

-50000

-50000

-100000

89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

-100000

50000

40000

30000

20000

10000

0

-10000

-20000

Small Trader

7/22

yardeni.com

89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Source: Chicago Board of Trade, Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

50000

40000

30000

20000

10000

0

-10000

-20000

Page 19 / July 25, 2014 / Market Briefing: Commitments of Traders

Yardeni Research, Inc.

www.yardeni.com


Wheat

150000

100000

Figure 20.

WHEAT

(contracts of 5,000 bushels)

Total Reportable Net Position

(Long position minus short position)

150000

100000

50000

50000

0

-50000

-100000

86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

7/22

0

-50000

-100000

100000

100000

Commercial Hedger

7/22

0

0

-100000

-100000

-200000

86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

-200000

200000

200000

100000

Large Speculator

100000

0

-100000

86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

7/22

0

-100000

100000

50000

Small Trader

100000

50000

0

-50000

-100000

7/22

yardeni.com

86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Source: Chicago Board of Trade, Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

0

-50000

-100000

Page 20 / July 25, 2014 / Market Briefing: Commitments of Traders

Yardeni Research, Inc.

www.yardeni.com


Eurodollar

800000

600000

400000

Figure 21.

3-MONTH EURODOLLARS

(contracts of $1,000,000 Face Value)

Total Reportable Net Position

(Long position minus short position)

7/22

800000

600000

400000

200000

200000

0

0

-200000

-200000

-400000

90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

-400000

3000000

3000000

2000000

Commercial Hedger

7/22

2000000

1000000

1000000

0

0

-1000000

-1000000

-2000000

90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

-2000000

2000000

1000000

Large Speculator

2000000

1000000

0

0

-1000000

-2000000

90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

7/22

-1000000

-2000000

400000

200000

0

-200000

-400000

-600000

-800000

-1000000

7/22

Small Trader

yardeni.com

90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Source: Chicago Mercantile Exchange, Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

400000

200000

0

-200000

-400000

-600000

-800000

-1000000

Page 21 / July 25, 2014 / Market Briefing: Commitments of Traders

Yardeni Research, Inc.

www.yardeni.com


Fed Funds Rate

100000

50000

Figure 22.

30-DAY FEDERAL FUNDS

(contracts on interest on

$5,000,000 Fed Funds)

Total Reportable Net Position

(Long position minus short position)

100000

50000

0

7/22

0

-50000

-50000

-100000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

-100000

200000

150000

100000

50000

0

-50000

-100000

-150000

-200000

-250000

-300000

-350000

Commercial Hedger

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

7/22

200000

150000

100000

50000

0

-50000

-100000

-150000

-200000

-250000

-300000

-350000

400000

300000

200000

100000

0

-100000

-200000

Large Speculator

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

7/22

400000

300000

200000

100000

0

-100000

-200000

60000

40000

20000

0

-20000

-40000

-60000

Small Trader

7/22

yardeni.com

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Source: Chicago Board of Trade, Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

60000

40000

20000

0

-20000

-40000

-60000

Page 22 / July 25, 2014 / Market Briefing: Commitments of Traders

Yardeni Research, Inc.

www.yardeni.com


Treasury Notes (10-Year)

400000

300000

Figure 23.

10-YEAR US TREASURY NOTES

(contracts of $100,000 face value)

400000

300000

200000

100000

Total Reportable Net Position

(Long position minus short position)

7/22

200000

100000

0

0

-100000

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

-100000

800000

600000

400000

200000

0

-200000

-400000

-600000

-800000

Reportable Commercial

Net Long Position

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

7/22

800000

600000

400000

200000

0

-200000

-400000

-600000

-800000

800000

600000

400000

200000

0

-200000

-400000

Reportable Noncommercial

Net Long Position

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

7/22

800000

600000

400000

200000

0

-200000

-400000

100000

0

-100000

100000

0

-100000

-200000

-300000

Total Nonreportable

Net Long Position

7/22

-200000

-300000

-400000

-500000

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

Source: Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

yardeni.com

-400000

-500000

Page 23 / July 25, 2014 / Market Briefing: Commitments of Traders

Yardeni Research, Inc.

www.yardeni.com


200000

100000

Figure 24.

2-YEAR US TREASURY NOTES

(contracts of $200,000 face value)

Treasury Notes (2-Year)

200000

100000

0

7/22

0

-100000

Total Reportable Net Position

(Long position minus short position)

-100000

-200000

96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

-200000

238000

178000

118000

58000

-2000

-62000

-122000

-182000

-242000

-302000

Commercial Hedger

96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

7/22

238000

178000

118000

58000

-2000

-62000

-122000

-182000

-242000

-302000

300000

200000

100000

0

-100000

-200000

-300000

Large Speculator

96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

7/22

300000

200000

100000

0

-100000

-200000

-300000

150000

100000

50000

0

-50000

-100000

-150000

Small Trader

7/22

yardeni.com

96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Source: Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

150000

100000

50000

0

-50000

-100000

-150000

Page 24 / July 25, 2014 / Market Briefing: Commitments of Traders

Yardeni Research, Inc.

www.yardeni.com


15000

10000

5000

0

-5000

-10000

-15000

-20000

Figure 25.

COPPER

(contracts of 25,000 lbs)

Copper

Total Reportable Net Position

(Long position minus short position)

89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

7/22

15000

10000

5000

0

-5000

-10000

-15000

-20000

20000

-30000

Commercial Hedger

7/22

20000

-30000

-80000

89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

-80000

60000

40000

20000

0

-20000

-40000

-60000

Large Speculator

89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

7/22

60000

40000

20000

0

-20000

-40000

-60000

30000

20000

10000

0

-10000

-20000

Small Trader

7/22

yardeni.com

89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Source: Commodity Exchange Inc., Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

30000

20000

10000

0

-10000

-20000

Page 25 / July 25, 2014 / Market Briefing: Commitments of Traders

Yardeni Research, Inc.

www.yardeni.com


60000

40000

20000

0

-20000

-40000

-60000

-80000

Figure 26.

GOLD

(contracts of 100 Troy oz)

Gold

Total Reportable Net Position

(Long position minus short position)

89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

7/22

60000

40000

20000

0

-20000

-40000

-60000

-80000

200000

100000

0

200000

100000

0

-100000

-200000

-300000

Commercial Hedger

7/22

-100000

-200000

-300000

-400000

89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

-400000

300000

300000

200000

Large Speculator

200000

7/22

100000

100000

0

0

-100000

89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

-100000

80000

60000

40000

20000

0

-20000

-40000

Small Trader

7/22

yardeni.com

89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Source: Commodity Exchange Inc., Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

80000

60000

40000

20000

0

-20000

-40000

Page 26 / July 25, 2014 / Market Briefing: Commitments of Traders

Yardeni Research, Inc.

www.yardeni.com


20000

10000

0

-10000

-20000

-30000

-40000

-50000

Figure 27.

SILVER

(contracts of 5,000 Troy oz)

Silver

Total Reportable Net Position

(Long position minus short position)

89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

7/22

20000

10000

0

-10000

-20000

-30000

-40000

-50000

20000

0

-20000

-40000

-60000

-80000

-100000

Commercial Hedger

89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

7/22

20000

0

-20000

-40000

-60000

-80000

-100000

75000

75000

60000

45000

30000

15000

0

Large Speculator

7/22

60000

45000

30000

15000

0

-15000

89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

-15000

45000

40000

35000

30000

25000

20000

15000

10000

5000

0

-5000

Small Trader

7/22

yardeni.com

89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Source: Commodity Exchange Inc., Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

45000

40000

35000

30000

25000

20000

15000

10000

5000

0

-5000

Page 27 / July 25, 2014 / Market Briefing: Commitments of Traders

Yardeni Research, Inc.

www.yardeni.com


30500

26000

21500

17000

12500

8000

3500

-1000

-5500

-10000

Figure 28.

NIKKEI

(# of positions of Nikkei Index X $5)

Nikkei

Total Reportable Net Position

(Long position minus short position)

93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

7/22

30500

26000

21500

17000

12500

8000

3500

-1000

-5500

-10000

50000

40000

30000

20000

10000

0

-10000

-20000

Commercial Hedger

93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

7/22

50000

40000

30000

20000

10000

0

-10000

-20000

25000

15000

5000

-5000

-15000

-25000

-35000

-45000

Large Speculator

93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

7/22

25000

15000

5000

-5000

-15000

-25000

-35000

-45000

13000

8000

3000

-2000

-7000

-12000

-17000

-22000

-27000

7/22

Small Trader

yardeni.com

93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Source: Chicago Mercantile Exchange, Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

13000

8000

3000

-2000

-7000

-12000

-17000

-22000

-27000

Page 28 / July 25, 2014 / Market Briefing: Commitments of Traders

Yardeni Research, Inc.

www.yardeni.com


100000

50000

Figure 29.

S&P 500

(# of positions of S&P 500 X $250)

S&P 500

100000

50000

0

-50000

-100000

-150000

Total Reportable Net Position

(Long position minus short position)

93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

7/22

0

-50000

-100000

-150000

150000

100000

50000

0

-50000

-100000

-150000

Commercial Hedger

93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

7/22

150000

100000

50000

0

-50000

-100000

-150000

100000

100000

50000

0

Large Speculator

7/22

50000

0

-50000

-50000

-100000

93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

-100000

150000

150000

100000

50000

Small Trader

100000

50000

0

-50000

7/22

yardeni.com

93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Source: Chicago Mercantile Exchange, Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

0

-50000

Page 29 / July 25, 2014 / Market Briefing: Commitments of Traders

Yardeni Research, Inc.

www.yardeni.com


Copyright (c) Yardeni Research, Inc. 2014. All rights reserved. The information

contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not

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