Anna Scothern - Constructing Excellence

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Anna Scothern - Constructing Excellence

The UK Housing Market

- an overview

Professor Anna Scothern FRSA

Director, BRE

scotherna@bre.co.uk

Part of the BRE Trust


The housing market

• New build

• Refurbishment

• Legislative landscape

• Summary

Source: NHBC Housing Market Report Number 226


New Build

• Number of homes registered broadly static, but 85,000 fewer homes than

registered in 2007 – indicating level of new build well below predicted need.


New Build

• Percentage house types in total registrations – all sectors


New Build

• NHBC Registrations and Completions

• Gov’s National Affordable Homes Programme tempered the decrease in

affordable housing 2008 – 2011

• Outlook uncertain due to Localism Act, implementation of Housing Strategy

and recent low levels of planning approvals.


New Build

• Outlook uncertain due to

• Localism Act,

• Implementation of Housing Strategy

• Low levels of planning approvals

• Uncertainty of mortgage approvals

• But – demand is still high..


Refurbishment

• UK homes are some of the oldest and least efficient in Europe

• All Buildings account for 45% UK CO2 emissions

• Housing energy use is responsible for 27% of UK CO2 emissions

• UK housing stock amounts to 26 million dwellings

Annual new-build rate


The Refurbishment opportunity

• The retrofit programme could be worth £200 billion to the UK economy

between now and 2050.

• Approximately 23 million homes need retrofitting between now and 2050.

That’s 600,000 retrofits per year.

• An overhaul of the UK housing stock could save approximately 48 million

tonnes of CO 2 and reduce householders' fuel bills by as much as £8.7billion


But…

there is still a significant gap between potential and reality in the retrofit market

“To meet 2050 targets, we should already be retrofitting 600,000 homes a

year, while in fact we are not approaching 10% of that number.”

- Dr Neil Johnston, Director of Delivery, Institute For Sustainability

…. how do we meet this challenge?

….. how can industry exploit the opportunity to deliver real business value, lower

energy bill and greater levels of comfort for homeowners and improved

environmental performance for the UK?


The Legislative Landscape

• Code for Sustainable Homes

• Increasingly demanding building regulations

• Allowable solutions linking new build and refurbishment

• The Energy Bill which includes provision for

• GreenDeal finance

• Energy Company Obligations

• Accreditation of GD assessors and installers

• Private sector landlord requirements


GreenDeal

• Framework to enable private firms to offer EE improvements to householders

recouping payment through energy bill:-

• Installed measures worth up to £10,000 saving possibly £400 per year

• Expected savings > costs (Golden Rule)

• Measures accredited and claimed savings approved

• Installed measures those recommended by accredited independent adviser

• Measures installed by accredited installer

• GD provider take account of consumer and give advice within terms of CCA

• GD to be disclosed to subsequent occupiers with energy performance

information

• Suppliers collect GD within existing safeguards, including protection of

vulnerable customers


Cumulative SWI installations

GreenDeal Opportunities

• DECC estimates:

o 5,000 refurbishments per day

o Insulation jobs rise from 27,000 to 100,000 by 2015, rising to 250,000 by

2030

o £7 billion private sector investment per year

o 2 million solid wall insulations by 2020

• Government funding for 1,000 GD apprentices

• Employers and Sector Skills Councils to design new apprenticeship

frameworks

• Are concerns that small builders may miss out

8,000,000

7,000,000

6,000,000

5,000,000

4,000,000

3,000,000

2,000,000

1,000,000

0

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

DECC Low estimate DECC High estimate Business as Usual


In Summary

• New build housing regularly goes through cycles of boom and bust and has

done for past 40 years

• Both new build and refurbishment of homes in the UK provides an opportunity

for Constructing Excellence and it’s members.

• Sectors currently fragmented and pulling innovation through can be challenging

• Solutions which deliver certainty and reduce waste will be attractive

• Dealing with the scandal of empty homes would be welcome

• Encouraging certainty in financial fluidity would be welcome

• Helping link Green Homes to Green Mortgages is a possibility

• Opportunities to share risk and reward through collaborative research


The UK Housing Market

- an overview

Professor Anna Scothern FRSA

Director, BRE

scotherna@bre.co.uk

Part of the BRE Trust

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