Food security in the face of climate change - DairyTas

Achieving food security in the face of
climate change
Challenges and Opportunities
Dr Bronwyn Harch| Deputy Director
21 March 2012
SUSTAINABLE AGRICULTURE FLAGSHIP

Food security exists when all people, at all times, have physical, social & economic
access to sufficient, safe & nutritious food to meet their dietary needs & food
preferences for an active & healthy life.
United Nations Food & Agriculture Organisation
Food Security in the face of climate change| Dr Bronwyn Harch| Page 2

Key Challenges
Growing from 7 billion people
today to 9 billion by 2050
1.5 billion overweight
1.3 billion tonnes
of food wasted
each year
1.5 billion depend
on degrading land
12 million ha of additional
agricultural land degraded/year
1 in 6 undernourished
200+ million more
hungry after 2007/8
price spikes
1.4 billion live on

Photo: International Rice Research Institute (IRRI)
Key Elements to Food Insecurity
• Converging threats from
climate change, population
growth & unsustainable
resource use
• Resource competition, land
degradation & greenhouse
gas emissions
• Food price volatility &
conflicts associated with
food shortages
Food Security in the face of climate change| Dr Bronwyn Harch| Page 4

Commission on Sustainable Agriculture
& Climate Change
• Established by the Consultative Group on
International Agricultural Research (CGIAR)
• Program on Climate Change, Agriculture &
Food Security (CCAFS) with support from the
Global Donor Platform for Rural
Development (GDPRD)
• 13 eminent natural and social scientists
from around the world
• Evidence-based policy recommendations:
A ‘road map’ for policy makers
Released in November 2011
• Full Report being released 28 th March 2012
http://ccafs.cgiar.org/commission/
Food Security in the face of climate change| Dr Bronwyn Harch| Page 5

Photo: International Rice Research Institute (IRRI)
Major Findings
•Business as usual will not bring
food security & environmental
sustainability
•Need to simultaneously address
global agriculture within the
context of the food system &
climate change
•The interconnected nature of
these challenges demands an
integrated management
approach
•The world’s poor are less resilient
Food Security in the face of climate change| Dr Bronwyn Harch| Page 6

Seven Recommendations
1. Integrate food security & sustainable agriculture
into global & national policies
2. Significantly raise the level of global investment in sustainable agriculture &
food systems in the next decade
3. Target populations & sectors most vulnerable to climate change & food
insecurity
4. Reshape food access & consumption patterns to ensure basic nutritional
needs are met & foster sustainable eating habits worldwide
5. Reduce loss & waste in food systems – particularly from infrastructure,
farming practices, processing, distribution & household habits
6. Sustainably intensify agricultural production while reducing greenhouse gas
emissions & other negative environmental impacts
7. Create comprehensive, shared, integrated information systems that
encompass human & ecological dimensions
Food Security in the face of climate change| Dr Bronwyn Harch| Page 7

Key insights related to
Australia’s interest in food
security
Food Security in the face of climate change| Dr Bronwyn Harch| Page 8

Australia’s interests in food security
• Australia has a high level of food security
o export ~60% of food production
o produce 1% of world’s food; 3% of traded food
• Share same health/diet issues with higher income countries
• Land and water are increasingly contested
o food, fibre, fuel and carbon sinks
• Droughts and floods constrain ag outputs
• Strong population growth is fuelling community debate on
“sustainability”
• National policy related developments and dialogue
• International engagement around food security
DAFF 2012. FOODmap. An analysis of the Australian food supply chain
Food Security in the face of climate change| Dr Bronwyn Harch| Page 9

Action in needed on three fronts
1) reducing demand
2) sustaining existing productivity
3) filling the production gap
Food Security in the face of climate change| Dr Bronwyn Harch| Page 10

Global Food Demand (Petacal/day)
Food Demand Scenarios 1960 to 2050
45
40
35
30
Plus 20 % wastage
loss in value chain
Plus 6 or 12 %
diversion to biofuels
9B people + consumption
increase in developing
countries
25
20
9B people
8B people , no
consumption increae
15
10
5
0
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Year

Global Food Demand (Petacal/day)
A ‘Mega-wedge’ of Food Demand
45
40
35
Filling the
Production
Demand
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Year
Food Security in the face of climate change| Dr Bronwyn Harch| Page 12

Global Food Demand (Petacal/day)
Other “Mega-wedges” of Food Demand ?
45
40
35
30
Filling the
Production
Demand
25
20
15
Avoiding
losses of
productive
capacity
10
5
0
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Year
Food Security in the face of climate change| Dr Bronwyn Harch| Page 13

Global Food Demand (Petacal/day)
Other “Mega-wedges” of Food Demand ?
45
40
35
Reducing
the
Demand
30
25
20
15
10
Filling the
Production
Demand
Avoiding
losses of
productive
capacity
5
0
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Year
Food Security in the face of climate change| Dr Bronwyn Harch| Page 14

Global Food Demand (Petacal/day)
Pathways to Address the Food Security Challenge ?
Reducing the demand trajectory
• Reduce waste along the food value
chain
• Reducing over-consumption in
human diets
• Rebalancing livestock component of
future diets
• Develop “smart biofuel” policies &
technologies
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Year
Food Security in the face of climate change| Dr Bronwyn Harch| Page 15

Pathways to Address the Food Security Challenge?
Global Food Demand (Petacal/day)
Avoiding losses of productive capacity
• Maintaining pest & disease resistance
& biosecurity
• Avoiding further soil & water
degradation
• Climate change mitigation without
loss of food security
• Adapting to unavoidable climate change
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Year
Food Security in the face of climate change| Dr Bronwyn Harch| Page 16

Pathways to Address the Food Security Challenge?
Global Food Demand (Petacal/day)
Filling the production shortfall
• Net expansion of the land footprint
• Net expansion of irrigation footprint
• Expanding aquaculture based
production
• Increasing production intensity
• Closing yield gaps
(including raising eco-efficiency)
• Raising yield ceilings through new
technologies
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Year
Food Security in the face of climate change| Dr Bronwyn Harch| Page 17

More from less
a world of limited
resources
i World
Digital and
natural
convergence
A personal touch
Personalisation of
products and services
On the
move
Urbanising and
increased
mobility
Divergent
demographics
Older, hungry and
more demanding

Pathways ahead for the Tasmanian Dairy Industry?
◦ innovation ◦ partnerships ◦ knowledge services
Food Security in the face of climate change| Dr Bronwyn Harch| Page 19

Thank you
Sustainable Agriculture Flagship
Dr Bronwyn Harch
Deputy Director
t +61 7 3833 5631
e bronwyn.harch@csiro.au
w www.csiro.au/SAF