Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global Mobile Data

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Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global Mobile Data

Cisco Visual Networking Index

(VNI) Global Mobile Data Traffic

Forecast Update

March 2012

© 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.

Cisco Public 1


Cisco ® VNI Forecast research is an ongoing initiative to predict

global traffic growth. This study focuses on consumer and

business mobile data traffic and its key drivers.

Global Forecast

Data

Global Mobile

Speed Data

Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2011–2016

© 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Public 2


More Mobile Connections

Faster Mobile Speeds

More Mobile Users

More Mobile Video

Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2011–2016

© 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Public 3


By 2016, global mobile

data traffic will reach an

annual run rate of 130

exabytes per year.

130 Exabytes

is equal to:

• 130X More than all IP traffic generated in 2000

• 33 Billion DVDs

• 813 Quadrillion SMS text messages

Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2011–2016

© 2012 2011 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Public 4


Exabytes per Month

12

78% CAGR 2011–2016

10

10.8 EB

per mo

8

6

4

2

0

0.6 EB

per mo

1.3 EB

per mo

2.4 EB

per mo

4.2 EB

per mo

6.9 EB

per mo

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2011–2016

© 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Public 5


Exabytes per Month

12

10

78% CAGR 2011–2016

10.8

8

6

6.3

6.9

4

2

0

0.6 0.6

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2011–2016

© 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Public 6


Exabytes per Month

12

10

Business

78% CAGR 2011–2016

Consumer 23.1%

8

6

4

76.9%

2

0

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2011–2016

© 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Public 7


Exabytes per Month

*

12

10

8

6

Middle East and Africa (MEA)

Central and Eastern Europe (CEE)

Latin America (LATAM)

North America (NA)

Western Europe (WE)

Asia Pacific (APAC)

78% CAGR 2011–2016

5.88%

6.54%

6.83%

18.18%

22.56%

4

2

40.01%

0

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

* Includes Japan

Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2011–2016

© 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Public 8


In 2011, global mobile

data traffic more than

doubled (2.3X growth) for

the fourth year in a row,

despite economic

uncertainty, continued

traffic offload, and the

broader adoption of

tiered pricing.

Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2011–2016

© 2012 2011 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Public 9


100%

90%

80%

70%

45%

54%

61%

66% 69% 71%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

55%

46%

39%

34% 31% 29%

10%

0%

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Mobile Non-Cloud Traffic

Mobile Cloud Traffic

© 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Public 10


Exabytes per Month

16

14

Offload Traffic from Mobile Devices

Cellular Traffic from Mobile Devices

12

22%

10

8

6

78%

4

2

0

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2011–2016

© 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Public 11


Exabytes per Month

45

40

35

Cellular Traffic from Mobile Devices

Offload Traffic from Mobile Devices

Fixed/Wi-Fi Traffic from All Portable Devices

16%

4%

30

25

20

80%

15

10

5

0

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2011–2016

© 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Public 12


By 2016, 60 percent of

mobile users (3 billion

people) will belong to

the Gigabyte Club,

generating more than

one gigabyte of mobile

data traffic per month.

In 2011, 0.5 percent of

mobile users belonged

to the Gigabyte Club.

Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2011–2016

© 2012 2011 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Public 13


2011

2016

92 MB

Traffic/month

3 Video Clips

5 Audio tracks

1 Video call

5 App Downloads

1.2 GB

Traffic/month

10 Video Clips

5 Videos

50 Audio tracks

3 Video calls

10 App Downloads

© 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Public 14


Percentage of top 1 percent

to total MB/mo

60%

50%

Top 1 percent

40%

30%

52%

20%

10%

24%

0%

Month 1 Month 21

Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2011–2016

© 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Public 15


Gigabytes per Month

14

12

10

8

0.6

1.1

1.3

2.0

3.0

Top 20%

(102% Y/Y)

Top 10%

(81% Y/Y)

6

1.8

Top 5%

(64% Y/Y)

4

2

5.0

6.9

Top 1%

(37% Y/Y)

0

2010 2011

Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2011–2016

© 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Public 16


Percentage of Users

45%

40%

35%

30%

Month 10

Month 21

25%

20%

15%

10%

5%

0%

Greater than

5 GB

Greater than

2 GB

Greater than

200 MB

Greater than

20 MB

Greater than

1 MB

Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2011–2016

© 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Public 17


Gigabytes per Month

3.0

2.5

2.0

Month 21

Month 20

Month 19

1.5

1.0

0.5

0.0

Android Apple Windows Blackberry Proprietary Symbian

Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2011–2016

© 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Public 18


By 2016, there will be

1.4 mobile connections

(devices and M2M) for

every member of the

world’s population.

Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2011–2016

© 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Public 19


100%

90%

8% 12% 15% 19% 22% 25%

80%

70%

60%

50%

40%

92% 88% 85% 81% 78% 75%

30%

20%

10%

0%

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

One Mobile Device

2 or More Mobile Devices

© 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Public 20


Exabytes per Month

12

10

8

6

Other Portable Devices (2.2%)

M2M (4.7%)

Home Gateways (4.8%)

Non-Smartphones (5.7%)

Tablets (10.0%)

Laptops and Netbooks (24.2%)

Smartphones (48.3%)

78% CAGR 2011–2016

4

2

0

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

(Figures in

legend refer

to traffic

share in

2016.)

Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2011–2016

© 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Public 21


Smartphone

=

35 X

(monthly basic mobile

phone data traffic)

Handheld

Gaming Console

Tablet

Mobile Phone

Projector

= 60 X

= 121 X

= 300 X

(monthly basic mobile

phone data traffic)

(monthly basic mobile

phone data traffic)

(monthly basic mobile

phone data traffic)

Laptop

=

498 X

(monthly basic mobile

phone data traffic)

Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2011–2016

© 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Public 22


2011

MBs per Month

2016

MBs per Month

Non-Smartphone

4.3 108

M2M 71 266

Smartphone 150 2,576

E-Book Reader 750 2,880

Tablet 517 4,223

Laptop 2,131 6,942

© 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Public 23


Petabytes per Month

600

86% CAGR 2010–2015

500

400

508 PB

per mo

300

200

100

0

23 PB

per mo

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2011–2016

© 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Public 24


By 2016, the amount

of mobile data traffic

generated by tablets

(13 EBs) will be nearly

2X the total amount of

global mobile data

traffic generated in

2011 (7 EBs).

Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2011–2016

© 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Public 25


Exabytes per Month

12

10

8

6

Mobile VoIP (0.3%)

Mobile Gaming (1.1%)

Mobile File Sharing (3.3%)

Mobile M2M (4.7%)

Mobile Web/Data (20.0%)

Mobile Video (70.5%)

78% CAGR 2011–2016

4

2

0

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

(Figures in

legend refer

to traffic

share in

2016.)

Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2011–2016

© 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Public 26


Megabytes per Month

400

350

300

353 MB

Netflix

109

250

200

150

149 MB

Facebook

40

Pandora

55

Facebook

40

Pandora

55

Facebook

40

100

Web

89

Web

89

Web

89

Web

89

50

0

Email

60

Email

60

Email

60

Email

60

Email+Web +Facebook +Pandora +Netflix

Source: Arbitron Mobile, 2012

© 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Public 27


By 2016, nearly threefourth’s

(71%) of the

world’s mobile data

traffic will be video.

Mobile video traffic

will double every

year between 2011

and 2016.

Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2011–2016

© 2012 2011 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Public 28


(kbps) 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

CAGR

2011-2016

Global

Global Speed –

Avg. Mobile Connection

Global Speed –

Avg. Smartphone Connection

315 504 792 1,236 1,908 2,873 56%

1,344 1,829 2,425 3,166 4,102 5,244 31%

By Region

Middle East & Africa 89 206 434 850 1,555 2,618 97%

Central & Eastern Europe 205 396 739 1,316 2,228 3,476 76%

Latin America 125 227 396 673 1,082 1,627 67%

Western Europe 667 1,196 1,967 2,960 4,163 5,549 53%

Asia-Pacific 337 497 732 1,101 1,697 2,608 51%

North America 1,138 1,712 2,485 3,531 4,923 6,785 43%

Source: Cisco Global Internet Speed Test (GIST) results and other independent speed test findings

© 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Public 29


Exabytes per Month

12

10

8

4G Traffic

Non-4G Traffic

36%

6

4

64%

2

0

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2011–2016

© 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Public 30


In 2011, a 4G

connection generated

2.4 GB/mo, 28X higher

than the 86 MB/mo for

non-4G connections.

Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2011–2016

© 2012 2011 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Public 31


Number of Devices (B)

2.0

42% CAGR 2011–2016

1.5

1.62B

1.0

0.5

280M

0.0

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2011–2016

© 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Public 32


Number of Devices (B)

4.5

4.0

3.5

43% CAGR 2011–2016

4.03B

3.0

2.5

2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

0.0

662M

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2011–2016

© 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Public 33


Global Mobile Data Traffic

By 2016, mobile data traffic will reach 10.8 EBs/month (130 EBs annually).

Global Mobile Traffic Offload

In 2011, 11% of mobile traffic was offloaded; by 2016, 22% will be offloaded.

Global Mobile Cloud

In 2011, cloud was 45% of mobile data traffic; will be 71% by 2016.

Global Mobile Video

By 2016, over 70% of the world’s mobile data traffic will be video.

Global Mobile Network Speeds

Mobile connection speeds will increase 9-fold from 2011 - 2016.

Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2011–2016

© 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Public 34


Public VNI Content:

www.cisco.com/go/vni

• News / press releases

• White papers

• FAQs

• Free application

• Traffic modeling tools

• Additional resources

Send questions to VNI team: traffic-inquiries@cisco.com

Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2010–2015

© 2012 2011 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Cisco Confidential Public 35


Thank you.

© 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Public 36

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