study

miamiherald.typepad.com

study

Dario Moreno, Ph.D.

Commissioned by Cuba Democracy Public Advocacy


• Marco Rubio and David Rivera both received

over 70% of the Cuban-American Vote in the

2010 election

• The data shows strong support for the

continuation of U.S. sanctions policy toward

the Cuban regime

• Including strong opposition to lifting

restrictions on travel


• Marco Rubio’s analysis was based on a

homogeneous analysis of 179 traditionally

Cuban precincts in Miami-Dade County. The

analysis was also supplemented by two statewide

surveys of Hispanic voters.

• David Rivera’s analysis was based on a

homogeneous analysis of 38 traditionally

Cuban precincts in District 25 and four district

polls.


• A majority of Cuban-Americans support David

Rivera’s efforts to impose tougher restrictions

on travel to the island.

• 50% of likely Cuban-American voters are

more likely to vote for Rivera after hearing

that he restricted travel of state university

employees to the island and imposed new

restrictions on travel agencies that sell travel

to Cuba


More Incline Less Incline Don’t Believe

Total 50% 24% 8%

Republicans 66% 15% 6%

Democrats 31% 34% 9%

Independents 46% 28% 7%

Cubans 66% 14% 8%

Non-Cuban

Latins

34% 30% 7%

Anglos 44% 30% 8%

Blacks 28% 32% 6%

Over 60 56% 21% 8%

Under 60 45% 26% 7%

Cubans Under 60 63% 15% 8%

Cubans Over 60 69% 14% 8%


• Rivera enjoyed strong support among

Cuban-Americans throughout the

campaign.

• His support was consistent between 64%-

72%.

• Rivera benefited from his strong support

for the embargo and maintaining the

travel restrictions.


Rivera

Garcia

Total 72% 17%

Republicans 85% 6%

Democrats 31% 59%

Independents 6% 16%

Under 60 61% 22%

Over 60 81% 12%

Cuban Male 74% 16%

Cuban Female 71% 17%


Rivera

Garcia

Cubans 66% 13%

Republicans 78% 6%

Democrats 17% 55%

Independents 37% 20%

Under 60 64% 18%

Over 60 67% 9%

Cuban Males 66% 12%

Cuban Females 66% 14%


• Rubio support was consistent

throughout the election cycle.

• Rubio had 69% of the Cuban –

American vote on September 1

compared to 68% at the end of

October.


Rubio Crist Meek Undecided

Cubans 69% 12% 10% 9%

Cubans over 60 74% 10% 9% 7%

Cubans under 60 61% 15% 11% 14%

Cuban GOP 80% 8% 5% 7%

Cuban NPA 59% 20% 12% 9%

Cuban Dems 36% 19% 28% 12%

Cuban Males 75% 9% 11% 4%

Cuban Females 67% 12% 9% 11%


Rubio Crist Meek Undecided

Cubans 68% 12% 13% 8%

Cubans over 60 71% 10% 5% 6%

Cubans under 60 60% 18% 17% 13%

Cuban GOP 85% 6% 2% 6%

Cuban NPA 61% 21% 5% 7%

Cuban Dems 33% 16% 43% 12%

Cuban Males 72% 16% 5% 8%

Cuban Females 66% 10% 17% 7%


A homogeneous precinct analysis of election

results confirms the findings from the public

opinion data:

• A review of the 179 traditionally Cuban –

American precincts in Miami-Dade county

shows Marco Rubio winning those areas

with 72% of the vote

• While an analysis of the 39 Cuban precincts

in Congressional District 25 shows Rivera

winning those areas with 69% of the vote


• Cuban-American voters supported Rivera and

Rubio in overwhelming numbers.

• A majority of Cuban-Americans continue to

support candidates that favor maintaining all

current U.S. sanctions on the Cuban regime.

• Polling data and vote outcome does not

support the theory of a generational divide

among younger Cuban-American voters.

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