state of the economy mar 2013.pdf - City of St. John's

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state of the economy mar 2013.pdf - City of St. John's

State of the Economy

St. John's Metro


Published by:

Department of Economic Development, Tourism & Culture

City of St. John's

Email: business@stjohns.ca

Although every effort has been made to ensure the completeness and accuracy of the information

contained in this publication, the City of St. John’s does not guarantee, warrant or make any

representations, express or otherwise, that the information contained herein is complete and

correct. All numbers are nominal unless otherwise stated.

Publication date: April 2013


St. John's is an economic driver.

St. John's CMA’s 1 share of

total provincial GDP is about

50%.

50.0%

St. John's CMA Share of

Provincial GDP - 2012

CMA

Other NL

50.0%

In 1992, 32.1% of the NL

population lived in the

St. John's CMA. By

2012, that had risen to

39.1%

1 St. John’s Census Metropolitan Area (CMA) is a geographic area defined by Statistics Canada that includes St. John’s and several neighbouring

communities. St. John’s CMA may also be referred to as St. John’s metro throughout this document. Please refer to the following website for a map of

St. John’s CMA http://stats.gov.nl.ca/Maps/

Source: Department of Finance (Economic Research and Analysis Division)


St. John's metro economic indicators positive

2011 2012e

Retail trade +6.5% +6.9%

Labour force +3.2% +4.3%

Employment +4.5% +3.6%

Unemployment rate 6.6% 7.2%

Personal income +7.7% +7.8%

Real GDP (2007$M) +1.1% -0.4%

Table shows change from previous year. 2012 data is a preliminary estimate

Source: Department of Finance (Economic Research and Analysis Division)


Economic growth and oil production

Real GDP growth in the St. John’s CMA is more sensitive to changes in oil

production. The majority of oil industry activity is resident in the area,

therefore most of the province’s oil-related Real GDP is allocated to the

CMA.

Source: Department of Finance (Economic Research and Analysis Division)


Source:

CNLOPB

Oil production is projected to decline in the long

term, impacting local and provincial economies.


Millions of dollars in proposed and ongoing

projects for St. John's.

Project

≥ $20 M

Henry Bell Developments - two condo projects including

parking garage, Duckworth/Henry St.

$150

Long term care facility, Pleasantville $100

Convention Centre expansion, New Gower St. * $53

Fortis office building, New Gower St./Springdale St. $50

Eastport Properties office building, Water St. $46

Deacon Investments office building, Job St. $40

Hotels (Water St., Kenmount Rd., Stavanger Dr.) $38

St. John's International Airport, Cat 3 Landing System $26

Note: Table is not a complete list of all projects.

* Value of Convention Centre expansion – main building

Source: City of St. John's


Major projects in the province are making

significant investments and boosting the

local economy.

• Hebron Offshore Oil Development, $14 B

• Vale Long Harbour Nickel Processing Facility, $4.25 B ($US)

• Hibernia Southern Extension Unit, $1.7 B

• Lower Churchill Phase 1, Muskrat Falls, $6.2 B

• Iron Ore Company of Canada Mine Expansion, $828 M

• Suncor Energy / Terra Nova Expenditures, $254 M

• Husky Energy / South White Rose Extension, $1.2 B

• Tata Steel Direct Shipping Iron Ore Project, $630 M

• Alderon Iron Ore Corp. Kami Project, $1.273 B

Note : This is not a complete list of Major Projects.

Source: Government of Newfoundland and Labrador, Department of Finance (Economic Research and Analysis Division)


In 2012, the CMA recorded its 11 th consecutive

annual population increase.

210

Population - St. John's CMA

1986 - 2012

200

201,038

Thousands

190

180

170

173,258

160

Source: Population estimates, Department of Finance (Economic Research and Analysis Division)


The population of the St. John’s CMA increased 13.9% between

the 2001 and 2011 census years. During this time period the

population of the communities surrounding the capital city grew

by 23.1% while the population of the City of St. John’s increased

7.0%.

Source: Statistics Canada


Young Children, Young Adults and Seniors in St.

John's CMA had a faster population growth rate than

Canada between 2006 and 2011

25

20

15

10

Population Growth Rates by Age Category, St. John's CMA

Compared to National Level, 1996-2011 (%)

CMA

16.5

Can

11.0

9.2

7.1

20.7

14.1

5

0

0-4 20-34 65+

Age Category

Source: Statistics Canada


Approximately one in four (26.9%) students enrolled at MUN in 2012 were

from out of province (4,905 out of 18,236). The number of other Canadian

students enrolled at MUN doubled since 2003. Meanwhile, the number of

international students increased by 195% during the same time period and

increased 19.0% in 2012.

Number of International Students and Other Canadian

Students Enrolled at MUN 2003 - 2012

4000

3500

3000

2500

2000

1500

1000

500

0

Other Canadian

International

1598 1797 1991 2602

2852 2861

2373

3021

3196 3211

1694

574 689 797 864

978 948 1143 1273 1423

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Source: Memorial University of Newfoundland and Labrador (MUN).


We have strengths in several areas.

Offshore Energy

Fueling local economy, St. John's main service centre.

Ocean Technology

One of the fastest growing segments of the provincial

economy, based largely in the metro area.

Tourism

Iconic tourism destination, growth sector.

Arts & Culture

A cultural capital.


We are a city of small business. Half of our

businesses have less than 5 employees.

Source: Statistics Canada


Increasing labour force participation key

component in long term economic growth.

72.3%

64.7%

66.7%

63.4%

Source: Statistics Canada


Annual unemployment rate in the St. John's CMA

shows steady decline since 1996. The 2012

unemployment rate is half of the rate reported in 1996.

16

Annual Unemployment Rate (%)

St. John's CMA 1996 - 2012

14

14.0

13.5 12.2 10.2

12

10

8

9.5

9.2

9.2 9.9 9.0

8.8

8.1

7.8

8.3

7.7

7.2

6

6.9

6.6

4

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

Source: Statistics Canada


Total employment in the St. John’s CMA increased by 10,000+ over the past

three years and almost 30,000 since 1996. The majority of employment growth

over the past three years was full-time (97.1%).

The number employed as a percentage of the total labour force increased from

86% in 1996 to 92.8% in 2012.

Thousands

115

110

105

100

95

90

85

Total # of People Employed in

St. John's CMA

109.2

80

75

80.6

70

Source: Statistics Canada


Incomes are on the rise, increasing 51% since

January 2005, 13.4% over the past two years

and 6.2% in the past year.

Average January Weekly Earnings

St. John's CMA

2005 - 2012

$1,000

$900

$913

$800

$700

$658

$748

$781

$805

$860

$600

$605

$640

$500

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Source: CMHC, adapted from Statistics Canada (CANSIM)


St. John’s had the largest increase in median family incomes

among major Canadian cites between 2006 and 2010. The median

family income in the St. John’s CMA rose by $15,110 or 23.9%

compared to the Canadian average increase of $6,260 or 9.8%.

Source: Statistics Canada

Median total income, all census families, by metropolitan area

$

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

$ Change % Change

Year 2006 2008 2010 06 to10 06 to10

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Ottawa 84,000 90,990 94,700 10,700 12.7%

Calgary 83,500 91,570 89,490 5,990 7.2%

Edmonton 79,300 88,190 87,930 8,630 10.9%

Regina 72,200 81,480 84,890 12,690 17.6%

Saskatoon 68,300 77,740 80,570 12,270 18.0%

St. John's 63,100 72,120 78,210 15,110 23.9%

Halifax 67,600 74,040 76,500 8,900 13.2%

Quebec 67,100 73,780 76,450 9,350 13.9%

Winnipeg 64,700 70,510 72,050 7,350 11.4%

Toronto 63,800 68,120 68,110 4,310 6.8%

Vancouver 62,900 68,670 67,090 4,190 6.7%

Montreal 60,800 65,660 67,010 6,210 10.2%

Canada 63,600 68,860 69,860 6,260 9.8%


Driven by gains in personal income and high levels

of consumer confidence, retail sales have

increased by $1.72 billion over the past 10 years

(+86.7%).

Retail Sales - St. John's CMA

2002 - 2012

Billions $

4.2

4.0

3.8

3.6

3.4

3.2

3.0

2.8

2.6

2.4

2.2

2.0

1.8

1.6

1.4

3.70

3.25

3.03

3.44

3.12

2.61

2.76

2.27

2.53

2.28

1.98

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Source: Department of Finance (Economic Research and Analysis Division)


The average MLS ®1 housing price more than doubled

over the last 6 years (+104.7%), and increased 6.3%

in 2012.

325

Average MLS Housing Price in St. John's

2005 - 2012

300

Thousands $

275

250

225

200

218.9

251.2

268.6

285.5

175

150

125

141.2

139.5

157.0

178.5

100

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

1

MLS ® (Multiple Listing Service) is a registered trademark of the Canadian Real Estate Association.

Source: CMHC, adapted from MLS ® data.


St. John's CMA housing starts increased 167% since 1999 and

increased 12.0% to 2,153 units in 2012.

Meanwhile, housing starts in the City of St. John’s increased 5.5% in

2012 to a record 1,001 starts.

Housing Starts - St. John's and CMA

1999 - 2012

2500

CMA

St. J ohn's

2153

2000

1500

1350

1604

1834

1534

1480

1863

1703

1816

1923

1000

500

807

579

935

713

1029

398

585

751

932

783

1275

579

713

670

751

701

949

1001

0

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Note: CMA housing starts include St. John's housing starts.

Source: Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation.


Although vacancy rates have increased

slightly the last few years, the rate remains

low from a historical perspective.

20

Vacancy Rates - St. John's (%)

1995 - 2012

18

16.6

16

15.4

15.4

14

12

10

8

6

4

2

0

10.8

9.2

3.8

2.5

2.7

2.0

3.1

4.5

5.1

2.6 0.8 0.9 1.1

2.8

1.3

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

Source: Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation


The value of permits in the City of St. John's increased 12.1% to $432.4 million

in 2012. The increase was lead by commercial permits, up 116% or $118.3

million to $220.1 million. Meanwhile, the value of Government permits

declined 54.5% to $16.3 million and the value of residential permits declined

21.0% to $196.0 million.

Source: City of St. John's

Com = Commercial Permits, Res = Residential Permits; Gov = Government Permits


Office vacancy rates have declined substantially

since 2005. Class A* vacancy is currently at 0%.

1st Quarter Office Market Vacancy - St. John's CMA (%)

2005 - 2012

14

12

11.7

Class A

Overall

10

8

6

4

2

0

8.5

5.7

3.9

4.6

4.1

2.6

2.4

3.7

1.1

0.8

2.3

0.1 0.4

0.0

0.0

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

* Class A buildings in St. John's are: Baine Johnson Building, Fort William Building, Cabot Place, and Scotia Centre.

Source: Cushman Wakefield Atlantic


Total port cargo has increased 3.5% over the last

ten years while vessel arrivals have increased by

29.7%.

Note: vessel arrivals exclude non-commercial, e.g., Department of National Defence and small commercial vessels entering the Port of St. John’s.

Source: St. John's Port Authority


Passenger traffic reaches record high at St. John's

International Airport. The number of passenger movements

increased 5.5% in 2012 to approximately 1.45 million.

Thousands

1600

1500

1400

1300

1200

1100

1000

900

800

700

Airline Passenger Movements at

St. John's International Airport 1999 - 2012 (000's)

802

852

922

869

950

1083

1175

1243

1185

1223

1224

1319

1371

1447

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

PAST 10 YEARS

St. John's 66.6%

PAST 3 YEARS

St. John's 18.2%

PAST YEAR

St. John's 5.5%

Source: St. John's International Airport Authority and Transport Canada


Tourism revenues in the St. John's CMA rise

65.5% over the past 10 years.

Source: Provincial Department of Tourism Culture and Recreation and City of St. John's


St. John's had the 3 rd highest hotel occupancy rate

(72.5%) in Canada in 2012. The St. John's rate increased

0.7 percentage points from 71.8% in 2011.

Saskatoon

Regina

St. John's

Calgary

Thunder Bay

Ottawa

Vancouver

Edmonton

Toronto

Winnipeg

Montreal

Halifax

Victoria

Canada

Quebec City

Moncton

Alberta Resorts

Whistler

Hotel Occupancy Rates (%)

Major Canadian Destinations - 2012

56.4

55.0

74.3

72.7

72.5

70.5

70.3

67.1 69.5

66.5

66.4

66.0

65.1

62.2 64.0

61.8

61.5

59.3

30 40 50 60 70 80

Note: Occupancy rates reflect all rooms sold for all purposes including tourism, conventions, business etc.

Source: Destination St. John’s and PKF Consulting Inc.


Number of convention delegates remained stable

in 2012 with 22,149 delegates.

40

# Convention Delegates - St. John's

2003 - 2012

30

25.1

Thousands

20

20.0

19.0

22.2

17.5

22.9 22.7 22.1

10

15.5

16.0

0

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Source: Destination St. John's.


St. John's CMA has a higher percentage of its

labour force in arts occupations (0.98%) than the

Canadian average (0.77%). The St. John's labour

force also has a higher percentage of cultural

workers (3.9%) than Canada (3.3%).

Source: Analysis by Hill Strategies Research based on a 2006 census custom data request


Perceptions are changing.

“[St. John’s]….feverish activity in the oil

and gas sector has helped lift St. John’s

onto the “A” list of cities…St. John’s

record-high productivity has recently

outpaced that of Calgary and

Edmonton.”

City Magnets ll: Benchmarking the Attractiveness of 50 Canadian

Cities Conference Board of Canada, January 2010

"As a have-not, there was a lot of

psychological baggage. Now, a

positive change is starting to take

place in the perception of ourselves

as a distinct society. What was

despair, not knowing what’ll happen

because of the fishery closing, has

turned to hope.”

Curtis Andrews in Up! Magazine

“…and St. John's

Newfoundland where they

have initiated world class

educational programs to

support their offshore energy

development.”

Jack B. Moore, CEO, Cameron

St. John’s…has begun to rival

Halifax as Atlantic Canada’s

hipster nexus thanks to a

network of artists, musicians

and entrepreneurs.”

Steven English, Arrival Magazine, 2009


www.stjohns.ca

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