Chapter 7 - Ensemble methods.pdf
Chapter 7 - Ensemble methods.pdf
Chapter 7 - Ensemble methods.pdf
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Calibration of ensembles<br />
• Calibration is a post-processing step that removes the bias<br />
from the first and possibly the higher moments.<br />
• Calibration is important because it:<br />
– provides greater accuracy in the ensemble mean,<br />
– provides improved estimates of the probabilities of extreme<br />
events,<br />
– represents ensemble spread in terms of quantitative measures<br />
of the uncertainty in the forecast of the ensemble mean.<br />
• A history of observations and ensemble forecasts is needed<br />
to perform the calibration.<br />
• Historical archives of operational forecasts are not ideal for<br />
this. WHY?
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