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4 years ago

polskA - Tauron

polskA - Tauron

power Copenhagen will

power Copenhagen will not bring final solutions From the latest issue we recommend the interview with Krzysztof Żmijewski from the Warsaw University of Technology, Secretary General of the Council for the National Program of Emissions Reduction. “There is little chance that the Copenhagen Summit should bring the final agreement on climate policy, unless the United States makes a clear statement of its priorities and implements the American Clean Energy and Security Act. The summit will probably end with the adoption of a general declaration instead of particular solutions. The scenario is all the more probable as the European Union has not prepared a final plan for the division of means to be appropriated to the implementation of modern energy technologies in developing countries. The two sides in negotiations over the reduction of carbon dioxide emissions are the developed and developing countries. But the developed countries have not yet come up with a unified strategy, as the European Union and the United States have not reached agreement on its basic principles. The United States is responsible for major part of carbon dioxide emissions among developed countries; as long as it has not worked out a strategy for the reduction of its own emissions, it is difficult to expect it to agree on a unified policy for all developed countries. The next summit is due Six strategic aims for Poland’s energy policy On 10 November, the Cabinet adopted the resolution “Poland’s energy policy before the year 2030”, outlining long term strategy for the development of Poland’s energy sector, prognoses of demand for fuels and electric power, and delineating actions to be taken in the energy sector before the year 2012. As it has been explained by the authors of the document, the strategy addresses all main challenges standing before Poland’s energy industry. It defines the six priorities for future development of the sector; improvement of efficiency, stronger emphasis on securing energy and fuel supplies, diversification of energy production (with particular emphasis placed on the development of nuclear energy), development of energy production from renewable sources (RES), enhancement of competition on the fuel market and, finally, the reduction of harmful effects of the energy sector on the natural environment. Politicians expect a steady increase of demand for electric power, from the level of about 111 TWh in 2006 to about 172 TWh in 2030, which will be a 55 percent rise. in December 2010. It will take place in Mexico. If the developed countries reach agreement by that time, there will be a chance to push the negotiations forward in terms of global policy. For our country, the important thing is that countries endowed with greater power to influence decisions within the EU argue that Poland should pay for its emissions. But this claim is apparently based on erroneous assumptions. Poland must prove that large part of its industrial output is consumed in the Western European countries – so, why should our country bear all the costs of carbon dioxide emissions? Why should the contribution for the reduction of emissions depend on emissions and industrial output and not consumption? And why has it been so quickly forgotten that before they reduced their emissions to the present level, the Western European countries have released much more carbon dioxide per citizen than Poland is releasing now? The only fair measurement of carbon dioxide emissions is the calculation of the amount of CO 2 per citizen and definitely not per every EUR1,000 of the national GDP. The latter formula is advantageous for wealthy countries, at the expense of weaker economies. But if we adopt the former formula, Poland turns out to be at the level equal to EU average and below EU-15. But the leading EU economies are, obviously, strongly opposed to this manner of calculating the emissions, as it uncovers their hypocritical approach to the issue. Copenhagen will not bring final solutions, Jacek Michalski, p. 6-7. PhOTO: PAP Demand for peak power is expected to rise from 23.5 MW to about 34.5 MW in 2030. The gross demand for electric power in the same period is expected to increase from about 151 TWh to about 217 TWh. The first nuclear energy block in Poland is expected to be made available in the year 2020. By 2030, three nuclear blocks are to be in use, with collective net capacity of 4,500 MW. It is expected that by the end of 2010, new energy blocks of the capacity of 1778 MW will be opened in the existing coal fueled power plants. In the years 2011-2015 new and recreated powers of coal powered plants will reach 1980 MW and in the years 2016-2020 rise to 2,600 MW. The production capacity of gas powered plants is expected to increase by 200 MW by the year 2015 and by another 400 MW in the years 2016-2020. The strategy adopted by Grupa Tauron at the end of last year is compatible with the aims outlined in the resolution. Six strategic aims for Poland’s energy policy, Emil Różański, p. 10-11. Assumptions for European strategy for energy sector. The main purpose of the conference organized by the Polish Committee for Electric Power and Eurelectric on 5 November was the presentation of results of analyses conducted as part of Project 2050, whose aim is to predict the development of the situation in European energy sector in the first half of the century with the assumption that carbon dioxide emissions are to be reduced by 75 percent in relation to the levels from the year 1990. For the energy sector, it implies a reduction of carbon dioxide emissions to less than 100 kg per every 1 MWh of energy. The CEO declaration, signed by all leading European energy concerns in March 2009, assumes that by the year 2050, they will achieve the level of carbon dioxide emissions causing no further harmful effects for the environment, which is less than 100 kg of carbon dioxide per every 1 MWh of energy. No energy concern in Poland has obliged itself to achieve this goal. The strategy assumes that about 38 percent part of energy production should rely on renewable sources, mostly wind (56 percent). The next main source would be power plants powered by coal, gas and oil, equipped with CCS (carbon capture system) installations. They will account for 30 percent of energy production. Nuclear power plants will be responsible for the next 27 percent in the target energy mix, and the last 5 percent will be allocated to other sources. The most profound reductions in carbon dioxide emissions are scheduled to take place in the years 2025-2040. It is expected that in 2050, total CO 2 emissions in the entire EU will amount to 128m tons. The reductions imply extra expenses on the part of EU energy sector amounting to EUR2bn. If some EU member states opt out from the program for nuclear energy development, the plan stands no chance of success. The achievement of these goals will require enormous investments, to be distributed unequally among EU member states. A discussion of the actual possibilities of implementing the strategy must be preceded by agreement on the aims of energy policy on national level. The division of responsibilities should follow the assumption that all member states should contribute equal percentage parts of their GDP. Assumptions for European strategy for energy sector. Project 2050 results announced in Warsaw, Stanisław Tokarski, Jerzy Janikowski, p. 18-19. Global energy markets – China Every year, China expands its energy production powers by two times more than the entire production powers currently available in Poland. Despite the all pervasive bureaucracy in China, the country is making progress in liberalizing its energy market and has already entered the path of reforms aiming at the creation of free energy exchange. In the year 2020, the total energy production power in China will amount to 1080 GW. But the dynamic expansion of China’s economy still causes energy shortages, which remain acute in some regions. The sector is dominated by coal fueled power plants (78 percent) and water plants (20 percent). Nuclear energy accounts for no more than one percent of the total energy output, and the other sources (natural gas, oil, wind) make up the remaining one percent. Government plans assume a gradual reduction of the use of coal and increase of the share of nuclear energy, gas and renewable sources in energy production. The main consumer of electric power in China is industry, responsible for as much as 75 percent of the total demand. Other commercial clients consume 9 percent of the national output, private households account for the next 11 percent, and the remaining 4 percent is used by agriculture. The decision to transform China’s economy from centralised to free market economy was made in 1978. First steps to improve infrastructure and increase production efficiency were made only after 1986. Energy transfer lines are still underdeveloped and prevent efficient distribution. The turning point for China’s energy sector was the year 2002, when energy production was separated from transfer and distribution. This marked the end of the unquestionable domination of monopolist company State Power Corporation (SPC), which was split into five state controlled holdings; Huaneng Group, Huadian Power, Guodian Power, Datang Power Group and China Power Investment Company. Each received a 20 percent share in the national production powers. Currently, they make up 50 percent of the market. The other 50 percent belongs to independent producers, many of which are associated with the state controlled holdings. The institution in charge of the Chinese energy market is the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), which is a government agency responsible for long term strategic planning for the energy sector. It decides about strategic investments, sets up investment funds to finance infrastructural projects, controls prices and enforces government pricing strategies. In recent time, industrial clients have been granted more freedom in the choice of energy supplier. In August 2008, China implemented the first Anti-Monopoly Act, which may contribute to the liberalisation of the energy market. The new pricing strategy assumes a correlation between wholesale energy prices and the prices of fuels. Retail prices are still centrally regulated, however, there are plans to liberate them after the final separation of energy sale and distribution. In December 2007, the Chinese Government declared that full liberation of energy prices will be the final goal of its energy policy. Meanwhile, the Chinese energy market continues to develop, which requires new investments and adjustments in currently holding legal regulations. The country will soon have 900 MW of installed power capacity and which has produced 1644 TWh of electric power in the first half of the year (two times more than Poland will have produced over the entire 2009), is still facing acute energy shortages. Global energy markets – China, Wojciech Kwinta, p. 20-21. 2 polska EnerGIA nr 11 (13)/2009 polska EnerGIA nr 11 (13)/2009 3

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