Assessing the North-central Coast's Vulnerability to Climate Change ...

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Assessing the North-central Coast's Vulnerability to Climate Change ...

Vermeer and Rahmstorf, PNAS 2009


NOAA, 2011


G. Griggs, UCSC


Why not just raise the sea level in GIS to obtain flood level / inundation extents?

• SLR is part of the equation, but inundation consists of several other

components as well.

• Water
levels
include
phenomena
that
are
both
determinis4c
and
stochas4c.



Determinis4c


astronomical
4des
that
result


from
the
influence
of
the

sun
and
moon
on
the
earth



Stochas4c


effects
of
storm
surge,


climate
cycles
and
nearshore


processes
are
variable
and
vary


from
year
to
year


Components
of
sea
inunda4on



swash zone

breaker zone

H decreases rapidly due to

breaking

waves increase in height towards

breaking zone (shoaling)

wave run-up

wave set-up

wind set-up

h R

h wv

h wn

H br

barometric set-up

tide difference

sea level rise

h Δp

h tide

h slr

d br

MSL (datum)

(adapted
from
Frisby
and
Goldberg,
1981)


Delft3D FLOW

XBEACH with forcing from

Delft3D FLOW & WAVE (SWAN)


WW3


CGCM*
atmospheric


scenarios
for
years
2010


through
2100



FLOW
with
coarse


basin
grid


wave
stats
@


outer
boundary


of
SWAN
grid


joint
prob.
of
extreme,


median
and
R T

100


wave
&
wl


condi4ons
due
to
slp
and


winds
for
90
yr
4me
period


wl
stats
@
outer


boundary
of


shelf
domain


trend
analyses
of


measurements


select
scenarios
for
each


decade
&/or
90
yr
period


WAVE


[system
of
nested


grids
from
cont.
shelf


to
and
inc
study
focus


site]
[for
calc
of
swell


propaga4on
and


wind‐sea
genera4on]


FLOW



[system
of
domain


decomposi4on
grids


including
S.F.
Bay]
[for


hydro‐dynamic
calcs

inc


wave‐current
interac4ons]


(h slr ,
h 'de ,
h Dp ,h wn )


SLR
scenario


4dal


cons4tuents


Extreme,
median,
and


R T

100


trends
at
MOP


sta4ons)
for
given
90
yr


4me
period
and
CC


scenario


h R 
and
h wv 
with


XBEACH


Inunda4on


extents


GIS


*
CGCM:
coupled
global
climate
model



Why should we consider CGCMs in the equation?

Climate is a result of the complex interactions between the

• atmosphere, cryosphere (ice),

• hydrosphere (oceans),

• lithosphere (land), and

• biosphere (life),

fueled by the non-uniform spatial distribution of incoming solar radiation.

Climate models are essential tools for understanding current climate and the only means to

estimate the effects of increasing greenhouse gases on future global climate (NOAA, 2011).


• If we consider fixed greenhouse gas

concentrations and aerosol loadings into

the next century, we can use statistical

methods to estimate future atmospheric

and ocean conditions

• Past wave climate has been shown to

behave in a non-stationary manner (e.g.,

Caires and Sterl, 2005; Ruggiero et al, 2010)

• Realization that the wave climate is nonstationary

also implies that the current

climate alone can not be used to estimate

future wave climate (Caires et al 2006)

• Computer models of the coupled

atmosphere-land surface-ocean-sea ice

system are thus essential scientific tools

for understanding and projecting natural

and human-caused changes in earth's

climate.

http://www.oar.noaa.gov/climate/t_modeling.html


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