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of mercantile and commercial centres and to agriculture and manufactories tapping new and important regional markets. In terms of the former criteria (size and structure), though heavily influenced by Chenery and Syrquin 30 , a small sub-group had to be created because most "small primarily oriented économies" highlighted by them 31 , were not nearly small enough to make direct comparisons with Cyprus meaningful (if size is taken to be another key factor affecting economic growth Potential). Ultimately when considering a very small, open, island economy in a prime modem entrepôt location, any potential peer group should reflect many of these regional and geo-political characteristics, most of which will not be captured by a more generalised régression procedure. Comparîng other Micro-Economies with Cyprus in 1960 In the 1950's and early 60's Cyprus was a "small primary oriented" 32 economy. If data from a group of similarly sized and structured économies with similar background and conditioning factors could be found, their subséquent performance could give an indication of the Iikely direction of a no war, non-divided Cypriot economy. It was thought therefore that a "small primary oriented" economy must have a population of one million or less in 1960 to be similar to Cyprus and that it must be primarily non-industriai; in 1960 industry accounted for 23% of the workforce and 17% of Cypriot GDP. Potential peers should also be both investment and market oriented with average Gross Domestic Investment rates of at least 15% of GDP between 1951-60 and, particularly given that they are similarly sized économies, they should be similarly open to international trade with an average international trading rate of 30% and over of GDP 33 . The involuntary final catch-all 30 Chernery & Syrquin 1975. op. cit., note to table 2, p. 15. 31 ibid. 32 Chernery & Syrquin 1975. op. cit., Table 1, p.9. 33 Imports as a % of GDP 4- exports as a % of GDP / 2. 307
was that compatible data should be available for a thirty year period extending from around 1950. Figure 6.7 Structure of production; % ofGDP derivingfrom agriculture and industry in the Micro Economies in 1960. E Industiy Œ Agriculture Trin. & Tob Cyprus Malta Mauritius Barbados Soura: UN Ycarbooks of Nat. Account! Stat's 1980 (IBRD "World Tablei 1983" for the contribution of Utilities in Baibados). Fiji* •Fijian data is for 19(55. Due to both the historical fact that most small nations, now members of the UN, were not independent in 1960 and to a subsequent cost bias, early comparable data from small economies is rare. Of 32 "small [mostly] primary oriented" economies taken from Chenery and Syrquin 34 and highlighted as having populations of roughly one million or less in 1960, only eleven had anything like sufficient comparable data. Of these eleven, only five looked vaguely compatible with Cyprus (in terms of the above criteria): Barbados, Fiji, Malta, Mauritius and Trinidad and Tobago. Table 6.2 Population in '000s in 1960. Trinidad & Mauritius Cyprus Fiji Malta Barbados Tobago 776 660 573 394 329 231 Source; Penn-World Tables Version 5.6 (http://nber.harvard.edu/pwt56.html). 34 Chernery & Syrquin 1975. op. cit. 308
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ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I would like to th
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ABSTRACT This thesis examines the e
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Table Of Contents Page Change in ec
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List Of Figures 2.27 Revenue from t
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List Of Figures 5.25 Main destinati
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List Of Figures 7.8 The degree of o
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List Of Tables 6.7 All island, Gree
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This thesis will examine the econom
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Vassiliou's classic work 5 publishe
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As many questions raised by economi
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Figure 1.1 The structure of recent
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In terms of the topic of this thesi
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political landmark coincides with a
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were the mechanisms which encourage
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however, Chapter 5 concentrates on
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Defining the title The first priori
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such? Is northern Cyprus simply run
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unlike Greece in 1923, were already
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itself as having been literally und
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economic history, Christodoulou's s
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incurred as a resuit of eonfl ict.
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Christodoulou has concentrated his
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any credit for successful economic
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anking technology, administrative c
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(which usually has a regressive imp
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contribution did labour remittances
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having been inspired by Zetter's in
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econstruction also provided a means
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Conclusion In analysing the extent
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he drew distinct analogies with the
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in Cyprus. The main objective is a
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The war proved a watershed in many
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Uruguay, Japan, Trinidad and Tobago
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financial, property and business se
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By 1960 exports represented over 20
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Table 2.1 Domestic Exports FOB in 1
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the period (1960-73), the différen
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Figure 2.4 Principal exports as a p
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producing 12% of GDP. Tourism (rest
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considerably more than Turkey, whos
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income. Mining and quarrying (now m
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Figure 2.10 Principal exports as a
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Figure 2.12 The Destination of the
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Figure 2.14 Ambiguous indicators: T
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Figure 2.15 Sìze of manufacturing
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By 1980 the economy of the Republic
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The scale of the disruption in the
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Whether taking the optimists approa
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financing from financial markets pi
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grew rapidly. In the immediate afte
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One of the major problems facing th
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coming, only concerning policy make
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with particular bottlenecks affecti
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"We attributed this finding to the
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aiding the recovery from the coup a
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employment: rapidly rising real ear
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Until the intervention of public fi
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to pick the Republic of Cyprus as t
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of offshore companies registered in
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Figure 2.27 Revenue from the offsho
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Figure 2.29 The changing compositio
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The structure of the economy, the c
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CHAPTER 3. The foundations of Takis
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Famagusta enclaves would be over-ru
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The historical context of separate
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generally concentrated in the lower
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agreed Constitution. Seemingly Clar
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séparation of the communities bega
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UN. 37 Some additional supplies mus
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Seemingly, by 1970 the Nicosia encl
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was made on the basis of a fixed in
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derived from Turkish transfer payme
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Patrick has offered a more complica
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spare parts and maintenance materia
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Emphasising the growing divisions b
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Chamber, Rauf Denktash, said people
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Figure 3.2 Thepossible economic eff
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produced by them rises significantl
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Committee" was the area military co
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February 1975 the latter bodies set
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The first five-year pian, published
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CHAPTER 4. The construction of a Tu
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Whilst the Turkish-Cypriot leadersh
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of supply, and/or marketing, in key
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shipment of 2000 tons of foodstuffs
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Eti still operateci out of Nicosia,
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institutions in northern Cyprus amo
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with multipurpose co-operatives, a
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A few new co-operatives were formed
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loans. Savings Banks do have access
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espectively. The Famagusta branch w
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Cypriot) Government in the 1960s, t
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increasing costs 31 . This is perha
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packages imported raffinate, supply
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a monopoly respectively. Where ther
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Evkaf is an Islamic organisation fo
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Evkaf had a largely obscure economi
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Meanwhile a little noticed phenomen
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After the summer of 1974, the Turki
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monitored Ledra Place check-point,
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the early eighties, when Turkish ar
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Figure 4.3 Number of tourists from
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the situation that had existed prio
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stay arrivais or diminish with the
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competing with the longer establish
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flexibility of family business stru
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Ltd., Turkish-Cypriots eventually g
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dominateci by: textiles, footwear a
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force of national cohésion, change
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Figure 4.9 Main Citrus Exporters in
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Ismail Bozkurt (who secured 32.1% o
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Table 4.9 Citrus exports from north
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Ultimately the failure to act on pr
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CHAFTER 5: Re-establishing economic
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prospects of their respective de fa
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Figure 5.1 Change in Cypriot GDP as
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{0 perceive the de facto situation
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Turkey maintains that her objective
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parliament during the unstable peri
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case study, he argues that given en
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Specifically, it is analysis of nat
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imports (Figure 5.5). The extent to
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(which includes the increasingly im
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If "a leading sector in the process
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Just to put minds at rest that manu
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encouraged private sector action, t
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Figure 5.13 Gross domestic fixed ca
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major economic force, one that was
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Page 261 and 262: a "development resource" 54 , rathe
Page 263 and 264: able to spearhead a revival aided,
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Page 267 and 268: overwhelming dependence on a genera
Page 269 and 270: In the difficult times that followe
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Page 273 and 274: Figure 5.20 Orange production as a
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Page 277 and 278: Unlike the vineyards where most of
Page 279 and 280: Although not important in the initi
Page 281 and 282: Having said this, constant improvem
Page 283 and 284: compensation arrangements in the no
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Page 287 and 288: Figure 5.24 Proportion of citrus ex
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Page 291 and 292: seem more politically motivateci an
Page 293 and 294: Figure 6.1 Percentage change in GNP
Page 295 and 296: initially. The more immediate probl
Page 297 and 298: historical phenomena (large externa
Page 299 and 300: It has been argued that if politics
Page 301 and 302: share of National Income to somethi
Page 303 and 304: Figure 6.6 Communal income in 1980,
Page 305 and 306: Selecting peers as proxies for pan-
Page 307: growth potential to Cyprus in 1960,
Page 311 and 312: Figure 6.9 Micro Economies; average
Page 313 and 314: Figure 6.11 Micro Economies; averag
Page 315 and 316: Figure 6.13 The level of government
Page 317 and 318: Figure 6.14 "More Developed Medìte
Page 319 and 320: Figure 6.17 "More DevelopedMediterr
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Page 323 and 324: Figure 6.22 Structure of production
Page 325 and 326: Figure 6.26 Degree of openness in t
Page 327 and 328: economic growth 49 (variables 6-9:
Page 329 and 330: implication, developmental différe
Page 331 and 332: spectrum in 1980 at 38%. Perhaps le
Page 333 and 334: namely investment rates 54 (in phys
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Page 337 and 338: Figure 6.28 Average annual growth i
Page 339 and 340: Figure 6.29 How Cyprusfared in 1980
Page 341 and 342: Figure 6.30 Total Cypriot income 19
Page 343 and 344: o.zö; may reveai someimng 01 ine e
Page 345 and 346: developments elsewhere. The relativ
Page 347 and 348: unified economy) of 1963, Cyprus is
Page 349 and 350: CHAPTER 7. Conclusion 348 Comparati
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Page 353 and 354: So it is worth looking again at the
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Page 357 and 358: Figure 7.3 Gross domestic investmen
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Figure 7.5 "TRNC netforeign trade a
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Figure 7.8 The degree of openness i
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control. There seems to be ampie ex
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The role of tourism in the economic
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seem to be able to grow in line wit
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Comparisons throughout this thesis
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The Cyprus Mail Hellenic Group. Nic
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I.M.F. International Financial Stat
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1982. Fourth Emergency Economic Act
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"Turkish Federated State of Kibris"
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leadership of the two communities o
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"administrations" and key economic
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Bicak, H.A. (June) 1990. "The Impac
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Hudson, J. and Dyniotou-Jensen M. 1
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Mcdonald, R. 1989. The Problem of C
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Solsten, E. (ed.) 1993. Cvprus: A c
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