Download (28Mb) - LSE Theses Online

More documents

Recommendations

Info

Benchmarks of a unitary Cypriot economy in 1990 Given continued general convergence amongst the peers in most key indicators and given that these simple yardsticks have ali pointed in roughly the same direction, it is worth extending the model to 1990. The average economie growth rates for ail three selected peer groups for the periods 1964 to 1980 is fairly similar, ranging from around 5% to around 6%. After 1980 average growth rates drop considerably to between 2-3% in the period 1981 to 1990, seemingly a development echoed elsewhere 61 , and presumably one that Cyprus may have been Iikely to follow if politicai circumstances had not intervened. With the divergence however in the growth performance of the économies in the three suggested peer groups, caution should be applied to any meaning ascribed to projections so derived. Whilst Cyprus' performance may well have been widely at variance with the group averages, she should have equalled that of the slowest growing économies with similar characteristics at the beginning of the period looking. Divergence from the mean in the 1980's is generally so great as to offer a less distinct line in the sand than projections up to 1980, though as a basis for minimum expectations, the statista provide a guide to questions concerning the long-term costs of politicai upheaval on the island. Estimâtes to 1980 seemed to conclude that the short-term. resuit of the politicai upheavals were negative but not significantly so. Do the longer-term projections point in the same direction? Figure 6.30 (below) plots the average annual growth rates of the three peer group économies over aggregate Cypriot income (total Cypriot income, that is Greek and Turkish-Cypriot income combined), and which have been used to extend an idealised unitary Cypriot economy to 1990, from the watershed of 1963. Also plotted, is the earlier extrapolation that extended a benchmark for pan-Cypriot from 1963 to 1980. 61 Little, Cooper, Corden, & Rajapatirana 1993. op. cit. 339
Figure 6.30 Total Cypriot income 1964-90 compared with growth projections using peer group annual averages. HI Total Cypriot Y ' " ' Projection from 1950-63 data Cyp Y using ME'a av. a. gr Cyp Y using MDM's av. a. gr " Cyp Y using RSO's av. a. gr C£200 CfO O \ O \ O \ O \ O > O N O \ O \ o n q \ O S Q \ C N O \ O N O N O N O \ C N O \ O > O \ O N Q \ ^ O \ O \ O > O N O N O > Soiree: Greek Cyp. data: Stai. Alataci«, Tockùh C yp- dita: Bicak, S.A. 1995, Pe«r Group data: UN Yearixxdo of Nat. Y Accami*. The conséquences of the politicai upheavals in 1963 and 1974 are again clearly visible. These are the points at which the Cypriot economy significantly underperforms vis-à-vis the peer économies' mean growth rate. After the smaller overall shock of 1963, the Cypriot economy recovered and accelerated considerably faster on average than its peers, catching-up and over-taking expectations by 1967. The overall recovery from 1974 is far slower as it affected more of the island and the majority community adversely. Not until well into the 1980s, when ali the peer group mean average growth rates slow significantly, does it meet and then rapidly exceed expectations formed by using peer group averages. Table 6.8 below shows total Cypriot aggregate income along with Greek and Turkish-Cypriot GNP in 1990. These figures are compared with the three benchmark estimâtes of Cypriot income in an idealised unitary economy, assuming ethnie conflict and war had not interrupted development. Below the row labelled "Actual GNPs in 1990", in columns B and C, communal income distributions are hazarded, assuming income in both communities grew at the same rate in a unitary economy. 340
Page 1 and 2:
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I would like to th
Page 3 and 4:
ABSTRACT This thesis examines the e
Page 5 and 6:
Table Of Contents Page Change in ec
Page 7 and 8:
List Of Figures 2.27 Revenue from t
Page 9 and 10:
List Of Figures 5.25 Main destinati
Page 11 and 12:
List Of Figures 7.8 The degree of o
Page 13 and 14:
List Of Tables 6.7 All island, Gree
Page 15 and 16:
This thesis will examine the econom
Page 17 and 18:
Vassiliou's classic work 5 publishe
Page 19 and 20:
As many questions raised by economi
Page 21 and 22:
Figure 1.1 The structure of recent
Page 23 and 24:
In terms of the topic of this thesi
Page 25 and 26:
political landmark coincides with a
Page 27 and 28:
were the mechanisms which encourage
Page 29 and 30:
however, Chapter 5 concentrates on
Page 31 and 32:
Defining the title The first priori
Page 33 and 34:
such? Is northern Cyprus simply run
Page 35 and 36:
unlike Greece in 1923, were already
Page 37 and 38:
itself as having been literally und
Page 39 and 40:
economic history, Christodoulou's s
Page 41 and 42:
incurred as a resuit of eonfl ict.
Page 43 and 44:
Christodoulou has concentrated his
Page 45 and 46:
any credit for successful economic
Page 47 and 48:
anking technology, administrative c
Page 49 and 50:
(which usually has a regressive imp
Page 51 and 52:
contribution did labour remittances
Page 53 and 54:
having been inspired by Zetter's in
Page 55 and 56:
econstruction also provided a means
Page 57 and 58:
Conclusion In analysing the extent
Page 59 and 60:
he drew distinct analogies with the
Page 61 and 62:
in Cyprus. The main objective is a
Page 63 and 64:
The war proved a watershed in many
Page 65 and 66:
Uruguay, Japan, Trinidad and Tobago
Page 67 and 68:
financial, property and business se
Page 69 and 70:
By 1960 exports represented over 20
Page 71 and 72:
Table 2.1 Domestic Exports FOB in 1
Page 73 and 74:
the period (1960-73), the différen
Page 75 and 76:
Figure 2.4 Principal exports as a p
Page 77 and 78:
producing 12% of GDP. Tourism (rest
Page 79 and 80:
considerably more than Turkey, whos
Page 81 and 82:
income. Mining and quarrying (now m
Page 83 and 84:
Figure 2.10 Principal exports as a
Page 85 and 86:
Figure 2.12 The Destination of the
Page 87 and 88:
Figure 2.14 Ambiguous indicators: T
Page 89 and 90:
Figure 2.15 Sìze of manufacturing
Page 91 and 92:
By 1980 the economy of the Republic
Page 93 and 94:
The scale of the disruption in the
Page 95 and 96:
Whether taking the optimists approa
Page 97 and 98:
financing from financial markets pi
Page 99 and 100:
grew rapidly. In the immediate afte
Page 101 and 102:
One of the major problems facing th
Page 103 and 104:
coming, only concerning policy make
Page 105 and 106:
with particular bottlenecks affecti
Page 107 and 108:
"We attributed this finding to the
Page 109 and 110:
aiding the recovery from the coup a
Page 111 and 112:
employment: rapidly rising real ear
Page 113 and 114:
Until the intervention of public fi
Page 115 and 116:
to pick the Republic of Cyprus as t
Page 117 and 118:
of offshore companies registered in
Page 119 and 120:
Figure 2.27 Revenue from the offsho
Page 121 and 122:
Figure 2.29 The changing compositio
Page 123 and 124:
The structure of the economy, the c
Page 125 and 126:
CHAPTER 3. The foundations of Takis
Page 127 and 128:
Famagusta enclaves would be over-ru
Page 129 and 130:
The historical context of separate
Page 131 and 132:
generally concentrated in the lower
Page 133 and 134:
agreed Constitution. Seemingly Clar
Page 135 and 136:
séparation of the communities bega
Page 137 and 138:
UN. 37 Some additional supplies mus
Page 139 and 140:
Seemingly, by 1970 the Nicosia encl
Page 141 and 142:
was made on the basis of a fixed in
Page 143 and 144:
derived from Turkish transfer payme
Page 145 and 146:
Patrick has offered a more complica
Page 147 and 148:
spare parts and maintenance materia
Page 149 and 150:
Emphasising the growing divisions b
Page 151 and 152:
Chamber, Rauf Denktash, said people
Page 153 and 154:
Figure 3.2 Thepossible economic eff
Page 155 and 156:
produced by them rises significantl
Page 157 and 158:
Committee" was the area military co
Page 159 and 160:
February 1975 the latter bodies set
Page 161 and 162:
The first five-year pian, published
Page 163 and 164:
CHAPTER 4. The construction of a Tu
Page 165 and 166:
Whilst the Turkish-Cypriot leadersh
Page 167 and 168:
of supply, and/or marketing, in key
Page 169 and 170:
shipment of 2000 tons of foodstuffs
Page 171 and 172:
Eti still operateci out of Nicosia,
Page 173 and 174:
institutions in northern Cyprus amo
Page 175 and 176:
with multipurpose co-operatives, a
Page 177 and 178:
A few new co-operatives were formed
Page 179 and 180:
loans. Savings Banks do have access
Page 181 and 182:
espectively. The Famagusta branch w
Page 183 and 184:
Cypriot) Government in the 1960s, t
Page 185 and 186:
increasing costs 31 . This is perha
Page 187 and 188:
packages imported raffinate, supply
Page 189 and 190:
a monopoly respectively. Where ther
Page 191 and 192:
Evkaf is an Islamic organisation fo
Page 193 and 194:
Evkaf had a largely obscure economi
Page 195 and 196:
Meanwhile a little noticed phenomen
Page 197 and 198:
After the summer of 1974, the Turki
Page 199 and 200:
monitored Ledra Place check-point,
Page 201 and 202:
the early eighties, when Turkish ar
Page 203 and 204:
Figure 4.3 Number of tourists from
Page 205 and 206:
the situation that had existed prio
Page 207 and 208:
stay arrivais or diminish with the
Page 209 and 210:
competing with the longer establish
Page 211 and 212:
flexibility of family business stru
Page 213 and 214:
Ltd., Turkish-Cypriots eventually g
Page 215 and 216:
dominateci by: textiles, footwear a
Page 217 and 218:
force of national cohésion, change
Page 219 and 220:
Figure 4.9 Main Citrus Exporters in
Page 221 and 222:
Ismail Bozkurt (who secured 32.1% o
Page 223 and 224:
Table 4.9 Citrus exports from north
Page 225 and 226:
Ultimately the failure to act on pr
Page 227 and 228:
CHAFTER 5: Re-establishing economic
Page 229 and 230:
prospects of their respective de fa
Page 231 and 232:
Figure 5.1 Change in Cypriot GDP as
Page 233 and 234:
{0 perceive the de facto situation
Page 235 and 236:
Turkey maintains that her objective
Page 237 and 238:
parliament during the unstable peri
Page 239 and 240:
case study, he argues that given en
Page 241 and 242:
Specifically, it is analysis of nat
Page 243 and 244:
imports (Figure 5.5). The extent to
Page 245 and 246:
(which includes the increasingly im
Page 247 and 248:
If "a leading sector in the process
Page 249 and 250:
Just to put minds at rest that manu
Page 251 and 252:
encouraged private sector action, t
Page 253 and 254:
Figure 5.13 Gross domestic fixed ca
Page 255 and 256:
major economic force, one that was
Page 257 and 258:
they account for around a third of
Page 259 and 260:
dominates international transfer pa
Page 261 and 262:
a "development resource" 54 , rathe
Page 263 and 264:
able to spearhead a revival aided,
Page 265 and 266:
path, policy objectives moved to co
Page 267 and 268:
overwhelming dependence on a genera
Page 269 and 270:
In the difficult times that followe
Page 271 and 272:
independence from total Turkish fin
Page 273 and 274:
Figure 5.20 Orange production as a
Page 275 and 276:
e exchanged for new "TRNC" (or, as
Page 277 and 278:
Unlike the vineyards where most of
Page 279 and 280:
Although not important in the initi
Page 281 and 282:
Having said this, constant improvem
Page 283 and 284:
compensation arrangements in the no
Page 285 and 286:
some of the labour intensive stages
Page 287 and 288:
Figure 5.24 Proportion of citrus ex
Page 289 and 290: to treat exports from the whole of
Page 291 and 292: seem more politically motivateci an
Page 293 and 294: Figure 6.1 Percentage change in GNP
Page 295 and 296: initially. The more immediate probl
Page 297 and 298: historical phenomena (large externa
Page 299 and 300: It has been argued that if politics
Page 301 and 302: share of National Income to somethi
Page 303 and 304: Figure 6.6 Communal income in 1980,
Page 305 and 306: Selecting peers as proxies for pan-
Page 307 and 308: growth potential to Cyprus in 1960,
Page 309 and 310: was that compatible data should be
Page 311 and 312: Figure 6.9 Micro Economies; average
Page 313 and 314: Figure 6.11 Micro Economies; averag
Page 315 and 316: Figure 6.13 The level of government
Page 317 and 318: Figure 6.14 "More Developed Medìte
Page 319 and 320: Figure 6.17 "More DevelopedMediterr
Page 321 and 322: Cypriot growth rate, should not dis
Page 323 and 324: Figure 6.22 Structure of production
Page 325 and 326: Figure 6.26 Degree of openness in t
Page 327 and 328: economic growth 49 (variables 6-9:
Page 329 and 330: implication, developmental différe
Page 331 and 332: spectrum in 1980 at 38%. Perhaps le
Page 333 and 334: namely investment rates 54 (in phys
Page 335 and 336: instruments, the justification for
Page 337 and 338: Figure 6.28 Average annual growth i
Page 339: Figure 6.29 How Cyprusfared in 1980
Page 343 and 344: o.zö; may reveai someimng 01 ine e
Page 345 and 346: developments elsewhere. The relativ
Page 347 and 348: unified economy) of 1963, Cyprus is
Page 349 and 350: CHAPTER 7. Conclusion 348 Comparati
Page 351 and 352: Turkish-Cypriot economy stagnateci.
Page 353 and 354: So it is worth looking again at the
Page 355 and 356: stand out however, revealing enough
Page 357 and 358: Figure 7.3 Gross domestic investmen
Page 359 and 360: Figure 7.5 "TRNC netforeign trade a
Page 361 and 362: Figure 7.8 The degree of openness i
Page 363 and 364: control. There seems to be ampie ex
Page 365 and 366: The role of tourism in the economic
Page 367 and 368: seem to be able to grow in line wit
Page 369 and 370: Comparisons throughout this thesis
Page 371 and 372: The Cyprus Mail Hellenic Group. Nic
Page 373 and 374: I.M.F. International Financial Stat
Page 375 and 376: 1982. Fourth Emergency Economic Act
Page 377 and 378: "Turkish Federated State of Kibris"
Page 379 and 380: leadership of the two communities o
Page 381 and 382: "administrations" and key economic
Page 383 and 384: Bicak, H.A. (June) 1990. "The Impac
Page 385 and 386: Hudson, J. and Dyniotou-Jensen M. 1
Page 387 and 388: Mcdonald, R. 1989. The Problem of C
Page 389 and 390: Solsten, E. (ed.) 1993. Cvprus: A c
show all

Download (28Mb) - LSE Theses Online

Create successful ePaper yourself

Delete template?

Save as template?