Trends in Emerging Technologies: Some Implications for ... - unido

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Trends in Emerging Technologies: Some Implications for ... - unido

Trends in Emerging Technologies:

Some Implications for Energy, Environment, and Development

Part I. Trends in Development and Diffusion of Emerging Technologies

Part II. Effects on Tradeoffs Across Energy, Environment, Development

Part III. Implications for Policies of High, Middle, and Low Income Nations

16th Session of UN Commission on Sustainable Development

UNIDO Side Event 9 May 2008 6:15‐7:45 PM Conference Room 6

Professor Kenneth A. Oye

Program on Emerging Technologies (PoET)

Department of Political Science and Engineering Systems Division

Massachusetts Institute of Technology

The author acknowledges with gratitude support from NSF IGERT “Assessing Implications and Improving

Responses to Emerging Technologies,” NSF SynBERC “Synthetic Biology Engineering Research Center,” and

the Cambridge‐MIT Initiative “Oxford Internet Institute Conference.” This presentation incorporates ideas,

cases and data from Thomas Bernauer, Peter Blair, Hanna Breetz, David Clark, Drew Endy, Frank Field,

Daniel Hastings, Shirley Hung, Evelyn Fox Keller, Andrey Kortunov, Thomas Knight, Natalie Kuldell, Lawrence

McCray, Gautam Mukunda, Christine Ng, Arthur Petersen, Arti Rai, David Reiner, Randy Rettberg, Matthew

Silver, Merritt Roe Smith, Tatsujiro Suzuki, Chintan Vaishnav, Rachel Wellhausen, Neelima Yeddanapudi.


Part I: Trends in Emerging Technologies

The pace of technology development and the global diffusion of

technologies are accelerating.

Biological engineering, information technology, nano‐technologies

and other emerging technologies are advancing at exponential rates.

•Exponential information processing, transport and storage

•Exponential materials creation via DNA sequencing & synthesis

• Linear transport of conventional materials

Casual anecdotes and systematic studies suggest that emerging

technologies are diffusing from upper to middle income nations.

•Rise of IT production and research in Bangalore

•IGEM Slovenia and Beijing defeat MIT, Princeton, ETH, Caltech

• Studies on globalization of education, investment, R&D (NSF 2006).


Material Transport

Linear reductions

in conventional

materials transport

costs by sea and air

Transport Costs

1990 US Dollars

1930‐2003

Cost

per

ton

per

mile

.

.

Air Freight

Sea Freight

World Bank, 2007


Info Technology

Exponential

change in speed

and cost of

information

processing

1900‐2000

Calculations

per

Second

per

$1000

.

.

Kurzweil 2001


Info Technology

Exponential

change in cost of

moving and

storing

information

1860‐2005

Bandwidth

per

Kilometer

per

dollar

Koh Magee 2006

.

.


1930‐2000 Communication costs now asymptotic to zero

1990‐2003 Internet access unequal but improving

Source: World Bank 2007.


Material Creation

Exponential

change in

materials creation

through DNA

sequencing and

synthesis

1965‐2006

Number transistors

per chip

Bases sequenced

per person per day

Bases synthesized

per person per day

.

Carlson 2007

.


IGEM International Genetically Engineered Machine Competition

2004 5 US teams from BU, Caltech, MIT, Princeton, Texas

2005 12 teams from US, UK, Canada, Switzerland

2006 38 teams from 14 nations… Slovenia defeats MIT, Princeton, Caltec

2007 54 teams from 19 nations …. Beijing wins Grand Prize

2008 75 teams from 24 nations ‐ China, India, Mexico, Peru, Turkey . . .

Beijing and Bangalore

IGEM 2007 teams


Part II: Implications for Energy, Environment, Development

How do exponential technology development and global diffusion of

technologies affect tradeoffs across and within energy and

environmental goals? With what effects on economic development?

Energy Security Goals

Reduce energy dependency, diversify sources, secure sources

Supply: Switch from oil and gas to coal, nuclear, bio, wind, geo

Demand: Promote efficiency with taxes, subsidies, standards

Foreign: Secure supplies, reduce demand by others

Environmental Goals

Global Climate Change

• Supply: carbon reduction

• Demand: efficiency, consumption

• Mitigate: offsets, sequestration

Regional Air ‐ cut NOx, SOx, PM, CO and other pollutants

Local Water ‐ cut water use; cut industry, household, farm pollution


Demand –World Energy Consumption MTE 1978‐2003 Source: IEA 2005

COAL

HYDRO

NUCLEAR

NATURAL GAS

OIL


Demand Large Crude Oil Price Increases Source: IEA 2005

IEA Projected Crude Prices


Demand Large Crude Oil Price Increases Source: IEA 2005

Actual Crude Price

IEA Projected Crude Prices


Demand –Primary Energy Intensity Source: IEA 2005


Supply ‐ Alternative Fuels ?

25

Source: US EIA

U.S. Oil Consumption (10 6 barrels per day)

20

15

10

5

Domestic

Production

Alaska

Net Imports

Alternative Fuels

Other Liquids

0

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

“It's in our vital interest

to diversify America's

energy supply ‐‐ the

way forward is through

technology…We must

continue investing in

new methods of

producing ethanol

using everything from

wood chips to grasses,

to agricultural wastes. “

President Bush, 2007

State of the Union.


Emerging Technologies Example – Beyond Ethanol?

US Goal ‐‐ Displace 30% of current gasoline with ethanol by 2030

•Goal requires production of 60 billion gallons ethanol per year

• 22.9 billion bushels of maize per year, or 194% of 2004 US harvest

• Unsustainable water requirements, depletion of aquifers

•Use of maize displaces food production, higher food prices

•Ethanol toxic to microorganisms, low concentrations in fermentation

• Purification of ethanol from broth is energy intensive and expensive

•Ethanol water soluble and volatile, hard to pipe over distances

Therefore . . .

•Replace ethanol with less toxic and less water soluble fuels

•Reduce separation costs and allow pipeline transport

But How?

•Biofuelmade by natural microorganisms from maize not ideal

•Using implanted synthetic pathways in microorganisms may produce

better fuels from more diverse sources


Emerging Technologies Example – Beyond Ethanol?

US Goal ‐‐ Displace 30% of current gasoline with ethanol by 2030

•Goal requires production of 60 billion gallons ethanol per year

• 22.9 billion bushels of maize per year, or 194% of 2004 US harvest

• Unsustainable water requirements, depletion of aquifers

•Use of maize displaces food production, higher food prices

•Ethanol toxic to microorganisms, low concentrations in fermentation

• Purification of ethanol from broth is energy intensive and expensive

•Ethanol water soluble and volatile, hard to pipe over distances

Therefore . . .

•Replace ethanol with less toxic and less water soluble fuels

•Reduce separation costs and allow pipeline transport

But How?

•Biofuelmade by natural microorganisms from maize not ideal

•Using implanted synthetic pathways in microorganisms may produce

better fuels from more diverse sources


PATH 1CONVENTIONAL

SUN

SUN

PLANTS

STARCH MAIZE KERNALS

ENZYMES

SUGAR

MICROBES

ETHANOL

PLANTS

CELLULOSE

MICROBES

SINGLE

BIOREACTOR

OCTANE

CETANE

GASOLINE

KEROSENE

DIESEL


PATH 1CONVENTIONAL PATH 2 WITH BIOLOGICAL ENGINEERING

SUN

SUN

PLANTS

PLANTS

STARCH MAIZE KERNALS

CELLULOSE

ENZYMES

SUGAR

MICROBES

ETHANOL

MAIZE HUSKS

BAGASSE

SWITCHGRASS

KELP


PATH 1CONVENTIONAL

SUN

PLANTS

PATH 2 WITH BIOLOGICAL ENGINEERING

SUN

PLANTS

STARCH MAIZE KERNALS

ENZYMES

SUGAR

MICROBES

ETHANOL

CELLULOSE

MICROBES

SINGLE

BIO-REACTOR

OCTANE

CETANE

GASOLINE

KEROSENE

DIESEL


Part III: Policy Implications for High, Medium, Low Income Nations

High income countries – generators

• Economic competitiveness PLUS energy security PLUS environment

• Partnerships link government, venture capital, universities

• Investments reinforce intellectual property and research clusters

•BUT uncertainty and lags in synbio and IT applications beset planning

Middle income nations and enclaves –generators and early adapters

•Korea, China, India, Mexico, Turkey seeking to form own clusters

•Modular nature of synthetic biology and IT facilitate diffusion

•Use of ETs may reduce carbon loads in highest growth areas

•BUT intellectual property rights claims may hinder diffusion

•BUT security concerns may be invoked to limit training and access

Lower income countries – acceptors and late adapters

• Millenium Villages as acceptors of seed, fertilizer, antimalarials, IT

• Adaptation of technology to local needs through regional centers

•BUT uncertain effect of synbio and IT on terms‐of‐trade . . .

•BUT IP claims and security concerns may be invoked to limit access

RESEARCH NEEDED on credible assessment of ET benefits and risks, on

IPR regimes, and on potential effects of ETs on terms of trade.


BEYOND ETHANOL?

LBNL Joint BioEnergy Institute - Jay Keasling

Lignocellulosic biofuels - DoE $135 million

University of California Berkeley Chris Somerville

Biofuels initiative - BP $500 million

Amyris Biotechnologies -- Jay Keasling

Implant isoprenoid producing pathways

Codexis – Alan Shaw

Octanol producing genetically modified enzymes

LS9 -- Chris Somerville and George Church

Implant fatty acid producing pathways for biodiesel

Synthetic Genomics –Craig Venter

Undisclosed strategies for making hydrogen,

methane, and liquid biofuels


ANTIMALARIAL DRUG PRODUCTION?

“ By inserting genes from three separate

organisms into the E. coli, we're creating a

bacterial strain that can produce the artemisinin

precursor, amorphadien. We are now attempting

to clone the remaining genes needed for the E.

coli to produce artemisinin." Jay Keasling


Part III: Policy Implications for High, Medium, Low Income Nations

High income countries – generators

• Economic competitiveness PLUS energy security PLUS environment

• Partnerships link government, venture capital, universities

• Investments reinforce intellectual property and research clusters

•BUT uncertainty and lags in synbio and IT applications beset planning

Middle income nations and enclaves –generators and early adapters

•Korea, China, India, Mexico, Turkey seeking to form own clusters

•Modular nature of synthetic biology and IT facilitate diffusion

•Use of ETs may reduce carbon loads in highest growth areas

•BUT intellectual property rights claims may hinder diffusion

•BUT security concerns may be invoked to limit training and access

Lower income countries – acceptors and late adapters

• Millenium Villages as acceptors of seed, fertilizer, antimalarials, IT

• Adaptation of technology to local needs through regional centers

•BUT uncertain effect of synbio and IT on terms‐of‐trade . . .

•BUT IP claims and security concerns may be invoked to limit access

RESEARCH NEEDED on credible assessment of ET benefits and risks, on

IPR regimes, and on potential effects of ETs on terms of trade.


Diffusion and Intellectual Property

“Synthetic Genomics” and “Insertion of Genomes”


Fundamental Research and Education

Exemptions and Technology Diffusion?


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4


Security, Safety and Limits on Diffusion?


APPRAISING BENEFITS AND RISKS -- BY WHOM? HOW?

"No lesson seems to be so deeply inculcated by the experience

of life as that you never should trust experts. If you believe the

doctors, nothing is wholesome; If you believe the theologians,

nothing is innocent; If you believe the soldiers, nothing is safe.”

Robert Gascoyne-Cecil Prime Minister of Great Britain

APPRAISING BENEFITS AND RISKS -- BY WHOM? HOW?

“You need the experts. The appraisal of benefits and risks

requires specialized knowledge. So how should the process of

appraisal be structured to provide checks on motivated biases of

experts? And can policy wonks be educated to a level where

they can pose informed questions, flag areas that require more

information, and reach informed judgments on what to believe?

Lawrence McCray Founding Director, Policy Division, NRC


Actors

Uses

Emerging

Tech

Applied

to

Pre-

Existing

Purpose

Innovators &

Alchemists

“The Usual Suspects”

Redesign microbes to

make cellulosic

biofuels

Redesign E.Coli for

making artemisinen

SYNTHESIS

Diffusion to Adopters

“Not the Usual

Suspects”

Synthesize small pox

and other select agents

Synthesize Spanish flu

and other extinct forms

Passive Bystanders

“Victim or

Beneficiary”

Economic collapse of

Gulf and Canada

Treatment of poor

malaria victims

Dislocation of

artemisinen growers

Emerging

Tech

Makes

Possible

New

Use

and/or

Activity

Tumor seeking cancer

killers

Real time production of

tailored antivirals

Race, ethnicity, or

individual specific

pharmaceuticals

Genetically modified

mouse pox

Antibiotic resistant

anthrax

Race, ethnicity or

individual specific

agents

Life extension

Collapse of social

security system


Part III: Policy Implications for High, Medium, Low Income Nations

High income countries – generators

• Economic competitiveness PLUS energy security PLUS environment

• Partnerships link government, venture capital, universities

• Investments reinforce intellectual property and research clusters

•BUT uncertainty and lags in synbio and IT applications beset planning

Middle income nations and enclaves –generators and early adapters

•Korea, China, India, Mexico, Turkey seeking to form own clusters

•Modular nature of synthetic biology and IT facilitate diffusion

•Use of ETs may reduce carbon loads in highest growth areas

•BUT intellectual property rights claims may hinder diffusion

•BUT security concerns may be invoked to limit training and access

Lower income countries – acceptors and late adapters

• Millenium Villages as acceptors of seed, fertilizer, antimalarials, IT

• Adaptation of technology to local needs through regional centers

•BUT uncertain effect of synbio and IT on terms‐of‐trade . . .

•BUT IP claims and security concerns may be invoked to limit access

RESEARCH NEEDED on credible assessment of ET benefits and risks, on

IPR regimes, and on potential effects of ETs on terms of trade.

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