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Study on Renewable Energy Resources, Oman - authority for ...

Study on Renewable Energy Resources, Oman - authority for ...

Fig. A 13.2 . Assumed

Fig. A 13.2 . Assumed fuel efficiency curve for diesel engines. It is further assumed that engines will not run on less than 50 % load. The analysis made with HOMER identifies the combination of components (size and/or number) that will give the lowest levelized cost of energy. The optimum depends mainly on the specifications of the technologies involved, on the cost of these technologies, the cost of maintenance and replacements of equipment and on the fuel used. Not to mention the natural conditions and the demand that is typically kept constant for the analysis. The cost of diesel in Oman is low and does not represent the cost of fuel for the 25 years of project lifetime which is considered here. Therefore a cost increase will be considered. It is further expected that the cost of renewable energy will be reduced in the future. The analysis therefore includes cost reductions in order to be able to analyse the potential of these technologies sometimes in the future. Optimal system type With today's cost and with the assumptions used in this case the optimum system is a combination with two diesel engines ( a 5 kW and a 12 kW engine, electric output) with 5 batteries and a 2 kW power converter. The levelized cost of energy is 236 USD/MWh. With 2 kW of PV providing 4 % of the power the levelized cost will increase to 242 USD/kWh and with 5 kW PV providing 10% of the power to about 260 USD per MWh. With higher cost of diesel and with lower cost of PV solar PV will be part of the optimum solution. With for example a diesel cost of 1.5 USD per litre (as in Europe) PV will in the optimum system cover 12 percent of the demand even with today's cost of PV. With a reduction in cost of PV the percentage will increase to about 40% in the optimum system. Cost break down As an example Table A 13.1 shows the cost break down for the system with 2 diesel engines, 5 kW PV and 20 batteries with a storage capacity of few hours of consumption. The total initial investment is 54,760 USD while the yearly annualized cost is 22,768 USD. The annualized cost per MWh is 260 USD and the PV covers 11 percent of the electricity. Table A 13.1 Cost break down and production for the system Componen t Initial Capital Annualized Capital Annualized Replacement Annual O&M Annual Fuel Total Annualized ($) ($/yr) ($/yr) ($/yr) ($/yr) ($/yr) PV Array 34,000 3,185 0 340 0 3,525 Generator 1 7,800 731 866 2,694 6,372 10,662 Generator 2 5,460 511 700 2,117 4,131 7,460 Battery 4,000 375 251 40 0 666 Converter 3,500 328 62 65 0 455 Totals 54,760 5,130 1,880 5,255 10,503 22,768

Optimum without diesel If diesel is not included the installed PV capacity and battery capacity need to be very high in order to supply 100 % at any time. A shortage of more than 10 percent is probably not acceptable and the corresponding cost is about 1.0 USD/kWh of electricity. This is 4 times more expensive than the optimum system which include diesel. The reason for this is that the match between solar production and consumption is not optimal. Most important is that the consumption is much higher during the summer while the PV production is rather equal over the year. Therefore a large amount of PV produced in the winter time will not be utilized. For the system with 10 % shortage (cost 1.08 USD/kWh) the PV capacity is 75 kW, producing 141,000 kWh per year of which 28 percent is not used. A huge battery bank with 1500 batteries is included costing almost as much as the PV panels. At an allowed capacity shortage of 70 %, meaning that 30% is supplied by solar the levelized cost is only half of the cost at 10% shortage allowed. The conclusion is that such a system without diesel backup is not feasible technically as well as economically as the only system for supply of electricity with the demand defined. Only with a better match between production and consumption the system may be applicable. Fig. A 13.5 Levelized cost of electricity supplied by a system with only solar PV and batteries as a function of the allowed capacity shortage. 2.0 Levelized Cost of Energy vs. Max. Annual Capacity Shortage 2.0 Levelized Cost of Energy Levelized Cost of Energy Fixed PV Capital Multiplier = 1 $ 1.5 1.0 0.5 Levelized Cost of Energy ($/kWh) 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 0.0 0 20 40 60 80 100 Max. Annual Capacity Shortage (%)

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    2. Mazoon Electricity Company Eng.

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    According to SQU studies, wind and

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    13. Ministry of National Economy H.

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    B. Comments received General info E

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