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Study on Renewable Energy Resources, Oman - authority for ...

Study on Renewable Energy Resources, Oman - authority for ...

Renewable Energy Resources in Oman Fig. 2.4 Differences in gas costs and solar and wind energy production costs taking carbon damage into consideration As can be seen wind energy becomes viable at a natural gas price of app. 3.0 USD mMBtu including depletion when the cost of environmental impacts (only CO 2 emissions) is included in the assessment. For renewable technologies replacing diesel the cost difference is illustrated in the figure below. Fig. 2.5 Difference in production costs between diesel power plant and solar PV and hybrid plants taking carbon damage into consideration Solar PV becomes cost effective for RAEC when the cost of diesel reaches 1.14 USD/Litre, and environmental costs are taken into consideration. Page 22 of 134 .

Renewable Energy Resources in Oman 2.2.6 Future scenario for utilisation of renewable energy in Oman Our analysis clearly indicates that at present the cost of fossil fuel based electricity is below that of electricity produced using renewable energy. In the long term the cost of fossil fuel based electricity generation may increase and the production costs of renewable energy technologies decrease due to increased efficiency and construction optimisation. The development costs of renewable energy technologies cannot be foreseen in detail and it is not therefore possible to make a precise plan for the economically optimum transition from fossil fuel based electricity generation to production using renewable energy resources. An approach to this challenge might be to integrate wind energy and solar PV into the power system gradually and thereby build up a local capacity to deal with renewable energy. Other advantages of this approach would be that although solar PV and wind energy would not fully replace conventional capacity they would a capacity value to the system and may be constructed in shorter timescales than conventional plants. These are important advantages in the context of Oman’s requirement for new generating capacity, something in the region of 2,758 MW within the next seven years. If one were to construct a long term (20 – 30 year) scenario for Oman, one could envisage a power system with CSP plants (with heat storage for night production) supplemented by grid connected wind turbines and PV. From a resource point of view this could be provided using a few hundred km2 of desert and may provided sufficient electricity production to meet conventional demands and electricity for electric cars. This would be a zero carbon electricity supply, and some scientists indicate that this could also be the cheapest option from a traditional cost calculation point of view at that time. The important issue is finding an appropriate starting point and development scenario for the use of renewable energy in Oman that may lead to the zero carbon scenario described above. The forecast of electricity generation capacity is 5691 MW in 2014. A scenario where 5% of the capacity (285 MW) is covered by renewable energy could e.g. consist of a combination of 125 MW wind turbine capacity, 100 MW solar thermal power capacity and the remaining capacity of 50 MW large and 10 MW small solar PV. The investment costs for this scenario would be in the order of 900 Mill USD based on the present market price of renewable energy technologies and corresponds to 3 USD/MW. In comparison the specific investment costs for a gas turbine plant is 0.3 USD/MW and for a coal steam plant 1.6 USD/MW. Page 23 of 134 .

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