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Bred vectors and forecast errors in the NASA coupled general ...

Bred vectors and forecast errors in the NASA coupled general ...

application to ENSO

application to ENSO predictions. J. Climate, 16, 40-55. Corazza, M., E. Kalnay, D. J. Patil, S.-C. Yang, R. Morss, M. Cai, I. Szunyogh, B. R. Hunt, and J. A. Yorke, 2002: Use of the breeding technique to estimate the structure of the analysis “error of the day”. Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 10, 233-243. Fan, Y., M. R. Allen, D. L. T. Anderson, and M. A. Balmaseda, 2000: How predictability depends on the nature of uncertainty in initial conditions in a coupled model of ENSO. J. Climate, 13, 3298-3313. Galanti, E., E. Tziperman, M. Harrison, A. Rosati, R. Giering, and Z. Sirkes, 2002: The Equatorial Thermocline Outcropping—A Seasonal Control on the Tropical Pacific Ocean–Atmosphere Instability Strength. J. Climate, 15, 2721–2739. Ji, M. and A. Leetmaa: 1997: Impact of data assimilation on ocean initialization and El Niño prediction. Mon. Wea. Rev., 125,742-753. Kalnay, E, 2003: Atmospheric Modeling, Data Assimilation and Predictability. Cambridge. Page 175-184. Keppenne, C.L., and M.M. Rienecker, 2002: Development and initial testing of a parallel Ensemble Kalman filter for the Poseidon isopycnal ocean general circulation model. Mon. Wea. Rev., 130, 2951-2965. Keppenne, C.L., and M.M. Rienecker, 2003: Assimilation of temperature into an isopycnal ocean general circulation model using a parallel Ensemble Kalman Filter, J. Marine Syst., 40-41: 363-380. Keppenne, C.L., M.M. Rienecker, N.P. Kurkowski and D.D. Adamec, 2005: Ensemble Kalman Filter Assimilation of Temperature and Altimeter Data with Bias Correction and Application to Seasonal Prediction, Nonlin. Proc. Geophys., 12, 491-503. 34

Kirtman, B. P., 2003: The COLA anomaly coupled model: ensemble ENSO prediction. Mon. Wea. Rev.: 131, 2324–2341. Latif, M., A. Sterl, E. Maier-Reimer and M.M. Junge. 1993: Structure and predictability of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation phenomenon in a coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model. J. of Climate, 6, 700–708 Peña, M. and E. Kalnay, 2004: Separating fast and slow modes in coupled chaotic system. Nonlinear Process. Geophys., 11, 319-327. McPhaden, M. J., and co-authors, 1998: The tropical ocean-global atmosphere observing system: A decade of progress. J. Geophys. Res., 103, 14,167-14,168. McPhaden, M. J., 1999: Genesis and Evolution of the 1997-98 El Niño. Science, 283, 950–954. Moore, A. M. and R. Kleeman, 1996 : The dynamics of error growth and predictability in a coupled model of ENSO. Q. J.R. Meteorol. Soc., 122, 1405-1446. --------------- and R. Kleeman, 1998: Skill assessment for ENSO using ensemble prediction. Q. J.R. Meteorol. Soc., 124, 557-584. ----------------, J. Vialard, A. T. Weaver, D. L. T. Anderson, R. Kleeman and J. R. Johnson. 2003: The role of air–sea interaction in controlling the optimal perturbations of low-frequency tropical coupled ocean–atmosphere modes. J. Climate: 16, 951-968. Reynolds, R. W., N. A. Rayner, T. M. Smith, D. C. Stokes and W. Wang, 2002: An improved in situ and satellite SST analysis for climate. J. Climate, 15, 1609-1625. Saha, S. and co-authors, 2006: The NCEP Climate Forecast System. J. Climate, 19, 3483–3517. 35

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