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Bred vectors and forecast errors in the NASA coupled general ...

Bred vectors and forecast errors in the NASA coupled general ...

vector analysis. Part

vector analysis. Part II: Optimal growth and forecast skill. . Mon. Wea. Rev., 125, 2057-2073. Yang, S-C, M. Cai, E. Kalnay, M. Rienecker, G. Yuan and Z. Toth, 2006: ENSO bred vectors in coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation models. J. Climate, 19, 1422-1436. Zhang, X. and M. J. McPhaden, 2006: Wind stress variations and interannual sea surface temperature anomalies in the eastern equatorial Pacific. J. Climate, 19, 226-241. 38

TABLE CAPTION Table 1 The error zonal correlation lengths and mean error variance of SST, obtained by fitting the bred vector and forecast error with a Gaussian function. The operational OI system assumes a zonal error correlation length of about 1500 Km. FIGURE CAPTION Figure 1 (a) Background Niño3 index (°C) and vertical cross-section of temperature analysis increment (°C, color) and BV temperature (°C , contour) corresponding to (a) October 1996, prior to ENSO stage, before warming developed (b) April 1997, developing stage, when warming started (c) November 1997, peak stage, when warming is strongest, and (d) April 1998, post ENSO stage, when the warm anomaly diminished. The contour interval is 0.5 o C and the zero contour is not plotted. Figure 2 (a) Background Niño3 index (°C), (b) bred vector growth rate (per month) and (c) root mean square of the difference between SST analysis and one-month forecast in the Niño3 region (°C). Figure 3 Mean value of the pattern correlation (the blue line) and the Niño3 index (red line) in bins defined by the BV growth rate. Pattern correlation and the Niño 3 index are grouped based on their corresponding growth rate located within the ranges of < 2.5, 2.5-3.5, 3.5-4.5,…. and > 8.5. Pattern correlation is defined as the spatial correlation 39

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