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Bred vectors and forecast errors in the NASA coupled general ...

Bred vectors and forecast errors in the NASA coupled general ...

Niño3

Niño3 index (a) 10/1996 (b) 04/1997 (c) 11/1997 (d) 04/1998 Figure 1 Background Niño3 SST index (°C) (left panel) and vertical cross-section of the temperature analysis increment (°C, color shades) and BV temperature (°C, contours) on model layers corresponding to (a) October 1996, prior to ENSO stage, before warming developed, (b) April 1997, the developing stage, when warming started (c) November 1997, the mature stage, when warming is strongest, and (d) April 1998, post ENSO stage, when the warm anomaly diminished. The contour interval is 0.5 o C and the zero contour is not plotted. 42

Figure 2 (a) Background Niño3 index (°C), (b) bred vector growth rate (per month) and (c) root mean square of the difference between the SST analysis and one-month forecast in the Niño3 region (°C). 43

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