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Bred vectors and forecast errors in the NASA coupled general ...

Bred vectors and forecast errors in the NASA coupled general ...

Figure 3 Mean value of

Figure 3 Mean value of the pattern correlation (the blue line) and the Niño3 index (red line) in bins defined by the BV growth rate. The pattern correlation and Niño 3 index are grouped based on their corresponding growth rate located within the ranges of < 2.5, 2.5-3.5, 3.5-4.5,…. and > 8.5. Pattern correlation is defined as the spatial correlation between the bred vector and analysis increment in the Niño3 region. The absolute value is used for both the pattern correlation and the Niño3 index. 44

(a) EOF1 (44%) (b) EOF2 (19%) Figure 4 (a) The first EOF mode of the equatorial temperature anomaly and (b) the second EOF mode. The thick dashed line is the depth of the mean thermocline. EOF modes are normalized, and their explained variance is in parenthesis. (a) EOF1 (19%) (b) EOF2 (11%) (c) EOF3 (6%) Figure 5 (a) The first EOF mode of equatorial temperature of forecast error, and (b) the second EOF mode and (c) the third EOF mode. (a) EOF3 (7%) (b) EOF2 (8%) (c) EOF1 (9%) Figure 6 (a) The third EOF mode of equatorial temperature of the unrescaled bred vector, and (b) the second EOF mode and (c) the first EOF mode. 45

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