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Bred vectors and forecast errors in the NASA coupled general ...

Bred vectors and forecast errors in the NASA coupled general ...

Figure 7 Forecasted

Figure 7 Forecasted Niño3 indices from different initial conditions starting from January 1997. The observed Niño3 index (from Reynolds SST) is denoted with blue dashed line. The control forecast without perturbation is denoted as the black line. The red solid line is the forecast initialized with PBV, the red dotsolid line is the one initialized with NBV, the green solid line is the one initialized with perturbed ocean only from PBV and the line is initially perturbed atmosphere only from PBV. Please see the detailed discussion in Section 4.1. 46

Figure 8 Bred perturbation used to initialize PBV: color shading: SST perturbation. Vector: wind perturbation averaged from 1000 hpa to 850 hpa. 47

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