Views
3 years ago

March 22, 2005 - Dr. Ed Yardeni's Economics Network

March 22, 2005 - Dr. Ed Yardeni's Economics Network

40 30 - Distributors’

40 30 - Distributors’ Sales & Imports - Figure 6. NONPETROLEUM IMPORTS vs. DISTRIBUTORS’ SALES (yearly percent change) 40 30 20 10 Jan 20 10 0 -10 -20 30 Nonpetroleum Wholesale Sales Nonpetroleum Manufactured Imports 0 -10 -20 30 Good correlation between distributors’ sales and imports 20 10 0 -10 -20 20 Nonpetroleum Retail Sales Nonpetroleum Manufactured Imports 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. Figure 7. NONPETROLEUM DISTRIBUTORS’ SALES (yearly percent change) Jan Feb yardeni.com 20 10 0 -10 -20 20 15 Jan 15 10 Feb 10 5 5 0 0 -5 Nonpetroleum Retail Sales Nonpetroleum Wholesale Sales -5 -10 yardeni.com 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. -10 Page 10 / March 22, 2005 / Investment Strategy Weekly OAK ASSOCIATES, ltd. www.oakassociates.com

- Business Sales & Earnings - 12500 12000 Figure 8. S&P 500 EARNINGS & BUSINESS SALES Jan 85 80 11500 3/18 75 11000 70 10500 65 10000 9500 9000 8500 60 55 50 8000 7500 7000 S&P 500 Forward Earnings* (weekly, dollars per share) Business Sales** (billion dollars, saar) 45 40 35 S&P 500 forward earnings are highly correlated with business sales. Notice that earnings tend to grow twice as fast as sales. The growth rates of both are probably at a cyclical peak. 6500 6000 yardeni.com 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 * 52-week forward consensus expected S&P 500 operating earnings per share. Monthly through March 1994, weekly thereafter. Time-weighted average of current and next year’s consensus earnings estimates. ** Manufacturing and trade sales. Source: Thomson Financial and U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. 15 10 Figure 9. S&P 500 EARNINGS & BUSINESS SALES (yearly percent change) Jan 3/18 30 25 30 25 20 15 5 10 5 0 0 -5 -10 S&P 500 Forward Earnings* (weekly) Business Sales** yardeni.com 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 -5 -10 -15 -20 * 52-week forward consensus expected S&P 500 operating earnings per share. Monthly through March 1994, weekly thereafter. Time-weighted average of current and next year’s consensus earnings estimates. ** Manufacturing and trade sales. Source: Thomson Financial and U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. Page 11 / March 22, 2005 / Investment Strategy Weekly OAK ASSOCIATES, ltd. www.oakassociates.com

Health Care - Dr. Ed Yardeni's Economics Network
Valuation: SVM-1 - Dr. Ed Yardeni's Economics Network
Brewers - Dr. Ed Yardeni's Economics Network
Earnings Month - Dr. Ed Yardeni's Economics Network
Surprise - Dr. Ed Yardeni's Economics Network
S&P 500: Financials - Dr. Ed Yardeni's Economics Network
Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing - Dr. Ed Yardeni's Economics Network
United Kingdom - Dr. Ed Yardeni's Economics Network
Chart Collection for Morning Briefing - Dr. Ed Yardeni's Economics ...
ECB Lending - Dr. Ed Yardeni's Economics Network
S&P 500 Materials - Dr. Ed Yardeni's Economics Network
Yardeni Research - Dr. Ed Yardeni's Economics Network
S&P 500 Industry Briefing: Tobacco - Dr. Ed Yardeni's Economics ...
Fed Watcher - Dr. Ed Yardeni's Economics Network
YRI Earned Income Proxy - Dr. Ed Yardeni's Economics Network
S&P 500 Industrials - Dr. Ed Yardeni's Economics Network
S&P 500 P/E & Risk On/Off - Dr. Ed Yardeni's Economics Network
S&P 500 Industry Briefing: Aluminum - Dr. Ed Yardeni's Economics ...
S&P 500 Industry Briefing: Footwear - Dr. Ed Yardeni's Economics ...
S&P 500 Industry Briefing: Trucking - Dr. Ed Yardeni's Economics ...
Chart Collection for Morning Briefing - Dr. Ed Yardeni's Economics ...
Employment - Dr. Ed Yardeni's Economics Network
Housing Starts - Dr. Ed Yardeni's Economics Network
Unemployment Claims - Dr. Ed Yardeni's Economics Network
Chart Collection for Morning Briefing - Dr. Ed Yardeni's Economics ...
Retail Sales - Dr. Ed Yardeni's Economics Network
Corporate Profits in GDP - Dr. Ed Yardeni's Economics Network
Relative Profit Margins - Dr. Ed Yardeni's Economics Network
Commodity Prices - Dr. Ed Yardeni's Economics Network
Real Estate - Dr. Ed Yardeni's Economics Network