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March 22, 2005 - Dr. Ed Yardeni's Economics Network

March 22, 2005 - Dr. Ed Yardeni's Economics Network

35 30 25 - Forward

35 30 25 - Forward Earnings Change - Figure 10. S&P FORWARD EARNINGS PER SHARE (yearly percent change) Forward Earnings* _______________ S&P 500 LargeCap S&P 400 MidCap S&P 600 SmallCap 35 30 25 20 15 3/18 20 15 10 10 5 5 0 0 SmallCaps enjoyed the best earnings recovery, but now the rate of change is slowing faster relative to both LargeCaps and MidCaps. yardeni.com -5 I II III IV I II III IV I II 2003 2004 2005 * 52-week forward consensus expected operating earnings per share. Time-weighted average of the current year’s and next year’s consensus forecast. Source: Thomson Financial. 10 Figure 11. S&P FORWARD EARNINGS PER SHARE (13-week percent change) -5 10 8 8 6 6 4 4 2 0 Forward Earnings* _______________ S&P 500 LargeCap S&P 400 MidCap S&P 600 SmallCap 3/18 2 0 yardeni.com -2 I II III IV I II III IV I II 2003 2004 2005 * 52-week forward consensus expected operating earnings per share. Time-weighted average of the current year’s and next year’s consensus forecast. Source: Thomson Financial. -2 Page 12 / March 22, 2005 / Investment Strategy Weekly OAK ASSOCIATES, ltd. www.oakassociates.com

- Relative Earnings: S&P 500 Sectors - 220 210 Figure 12. S&P 500 FORWARD EARNINGS* (1997=100) 220 210 Among these relatively stable earnings growers, Financials and Health Care are losing momentum. Consumer Staples on solid uptrend. 200 190 180 170 160 150 S&P 500 Index Consumer Staples Financials Health Care Mar 200 190 180 170 160 150 140 140 130 130 120 120 110 110 100 100 90 80 yardeni.com 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 90 80 * 12-month forward consensus expected operating earnings per share. Time-weighted average of current and next years’ consensus forecasts. Source: Thomson Financial. 200 Figure 13. S&P 500 FORWARD EARNINGS* (1997=100) 200 Among these cyclicals, Consumer Discretionary is turning down led by Autos. Technology is turning up led by Systems Software and Computer Hardware. 180 160 140 120 S&P 500 Index Consumer Discretionary Information Technology Mar 180 160 140 120 100 100 80 80 60 yardeni.com 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 60 * 12-month forward consensus expected operating earnings per share. Time-weighted average of current and next years’ consensus forecasts. Source: Thomson Financial. Page 13 / March 22, 2005 / Investment Strategy Weekly OAK ASSOCIATES, ltd. www.oakassociates.com

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