Climate

globalchange.msu.edu

Climate

Dryland Ecosystems and Their

Interactions with Regional Climate:

Approach & Some Results from Arid Regions of China and East

Africa

Jiaguo Qi, N. Moore, J. Ge, D. Campbell, J. Andresen, J. Olson, B.

Pijanowski, B. Lofgren, David Lusch, G. Algalswamy, Z. Feng (China)

EPCA & ESSI

Tashkent, Oct. 1-5, 2007


PRESENTQATION OUTLINE

• Rationale:

– Why drylands in Central Asia?

– Forces/Drivers on ecosystems

• Approaches

– Assessing land degradation from R. S.

– Detecting “human” impacts on ecosystem from R.S.

– Assessing human impacts on climate

– Assessing climate impacts on dryland ecosystems

• Some results as demonstration

• Summary

EPCA & ESSI

Tashkent, Oct. 1-5, 2007


Why Central Asia?

R U S S I A

K A Z A K H S T A N

5377

14951

M O N G O L I A

750

2500

4990

24232

903

4363

1922 1999

1922 1999

23700

No data

1922 2002

1922 1999

4730

883

6164 1922 1999

965

1922 1999

19250

4433

1949 2000

2616

1251

1940 1990

23060

6600

32000

12500

25810

4090

10650 1950 1996

1190 1947 2002

1952 2003

36740

1949 1998

5180

13170

1480

1949 2002

1949 2000

1964 2000

C H I N A

Population Changes in Central EPCA & ESSI

Asia Tashkent, Oct. (50s-80s)(Unit:1000)

1-5, 2007


Sensitive to climate change

Arctic-North

Atlantic Low

(Aleutian Lo

North Pacif

Low?

Siberia-

Mongolian

High

westerlies

Indian

Low

Subtropical

High

Indian Monsoon

Asian Monsoon

EPCA & ESSI

Tashkent, Oct. 1-5, 2007


[2] Disappearing

oasis in Tarim Basin

[3] Abandoning village in

desert-steppe of Mongolia

[4] Advancing

sand-dune

[1] Drying lake in

Kazakhstan

M O N G O L I A

C H I N A

[7] Altering permafrost

in the Tibetan Plateau

[6] Desertifying Loess

Plateau due to overfarming

[5] Depleting

groundwater in Gansu

Corridor

EPCA & ESSI

Tashkent, Oct. 1-5, 2007

Fragile ecosystems sensitive to human and natural disturbances

Figure 3. Some Examples of Human-induced Ecological Deterioration in Asian Arid-Semiarid Belt


Ecosystem Security Being Changed

Productivity, Function, Service, Capacity, Sustainability, Biodiversity

Borrowing resources from our

young generations

EPCA & ESSI

Tashkent, Oct. 1-5, 2007


Global Importance:

Going through rapid change


Message here: Ecosystem process is important in climate change

EPCA & ESSI

Tashkent, Oct. 1-5, 2007


Dryland ecosystems and their interactions

with human and natural forces

GCM (CCSM3, HadCM3)

Basic GIS & R.S.

Layers --

soil, property,

practice

boundaries

Household

Dynamics and

Management

Practices

Climate downscaling

Climate

Downscaling

(RAMS)

Land Use/Cover Change

Socioeconomic Drivers

Remote Sensing:

LULCC

Deg. Monitoring

Deforestation

Fire

Fluxes (H20, C,N)…

Dryland

Ecosystems

Ecosystems Dynamics:

NPP, SOC

Grazing capacity

Degradation potential

Future scenarios


One Approach: LUCC Climate

ΔRegional climate

ΔFluxes in C, H20, Nutrients

ΔNet Ecosystem Production

ΔBiophysical attributes

Δ

LUCC

Human systems

EPCA & ESSI

Tashkent, Oct. 1-5, 2007


Global Climate

CLIMATE DYNAMICS

RAMS 4.4

Regional

Local

NPP SIMULATIONS

MAIZE/CENTURY

Crops

Rangeland

INTEGRATIVE

Spatial and temporal scales

Uncertainty analysis

Feedbacks and tipping points

Systems paradigms

Broader impacts

LAND COVER

R.S. + Statistics

Remote Case

Sensing Studies

LAND USE CHANGE

LTM/ABM

Case

Studies

Models

Role Playing

Games

Human Systems


Trend in

Vegetation

from 82-03


Trend on Mean NDVI


Trend on Max NDVI


Trend on Min NDVI


Trend on (Max-Min) NDVI


Trend on NDVI STD


Trend on NDVI CV


Example: Changes detected-decrease

Region 7


Rate of Change

• Counts are total number of significant

changes within the region.

• Major changes are often corresponding

to changes in national land use policies.

EPCA & ESSI

Tashkent, Oct. 1-5, 2007


Rate of Change

• Counts are total number of significant

changes within the region.

• Major changes are often corresponding

to changes in national land use policies.

EPCA & ESSI

Tashkent, Oct. 1-5, 2007


Analytical Methods (cont.)

• Isotonic Regression:

– Detect both trends and abrupt changes

– Trends: Slow but steady change such as

grassland degradation (the type of land use

remains the same but its biophysical attributes are

changing)

– Abrupt change: Land use conversion such as

deforestation, urbanization, fire, switching crop

types etc.

EPCA & ESSI

Tashkent, Oct. 1-5, 2007


Case

studies

In East

Africa

EPCA & ESSI

Tashkent, Oct. 1-5, 2007


EPCA & ESSI

Tashkent, Oct. 1-5, 2007


How would change in vegetation affect energy fluxes?

Evapotranspiration (mm/day)

Unvegetated Surface

Evapotranspiration (mm/day)

Vegetated Surface

EPCA & ESSI

Tashkent, Oct. 1-5, 2007


EPCA & ESSI

Tashkent, Oct. 1-5, 2007


EPCA & ESSI

Tashkent, Oct. 1-5, 2007


Attempt to Discern Climate from

Human Impacts on Ecosystems

Boundary conditions: from NCAR’s CCSM model (SRES Scenario A1B)

Case 1: current GHG concentrations, current land use

Case 2: future GHG concentrations, current land use

Case 3: current GHG concentrations, future land use

Case 4: future GHG concentrations, future land use*

Current = 2000-2009

Future = 2050-2059

*Currently underway

EPCA & ESSI

Tashkent, Oct. 1-5, 2007


Case 2 – Case 1 (climate only)

ΔT max

ΔT min

EPCA & ESSI

Tashkent, Oct. 1-5, 2007


Case 2 – Case 1 (climate only)

Average annual change in precip (mm)

EPCA & ESSI

Tashkent, Oct. 1-5, 2007


Case 2 – Case 1 (climate only)

Higher yields in the highlands; declines where Tmin or Tmax too high

EPCA & ESSI

Tashkent, Oct. 1-5, 2007


Case 3 – Case 1 (LCLUC only)

Average annual change in precip (mm)

EPCA & ESSI

Tashkent, Oct. 1-5, 2007


Case 3 – Case 1 (LCLUC only)

EPCA & ESSI

Tashkent, Oct. 1-5, 2007


Summary

• Arid ecosystems are vulnerable to human

and climate perturbations

• Quantitative assessment is feasible

• Impacts and responses are spatially and

temporally heterogeneous

• Multiple forces acting on the ecosystems

• Information from research community will

help managers to make sound decisions

EPCA & ESSI

Tashkent, Oct. 1-5, 2007


THANK YOU

EPCA & ESSI

Tashkent, Oct. 1-5, 2007

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