Employment Trends

transport.vic.gov.au

Employment Trends

5

Employment

Trends

46 | Transport Demand Information Atlas for Victoria 2009


Volume 2: Regional Victoria A compendium of statistics and information | 47


Employment Trends

Employment by LGA

20,001 to 75,000

10,001 to 20,000

0 to 10,000

x% (AAGR in employment

2001 – 2006)

Source: ABS, 2006 Census

Growth in

employment by local

government area

2001 2006

% of

employment

in regional

Victoria

(2006)

%

change

from

2001 to

2006

Average

annual

growth

rate

(AAGR)

Colac-Otway (S) 8,142 8,713 1.7% 7.0% 1.4%

Golden Plains (S) 2,104 2,339 0.5% 11.2% 2.1%

Greater Geelong (C) 66,842 74,637 14.9% 11.7% 2.2%

Queenscliffe (B) 1,231 1,304 0.3% 5.9% 1.2%

Surf Coast (S) 5,161 6,002 1.2% 16.3% 3.1%

Corangamite (S) 7,114 7,237 1.4% 1.7% 0.3%

Glenelg (S) 7,593 7,947 1.6% 4.7% 0.9%

Moyne (S) 5,032 5,687 1.1% 13.0% 2.5%

Southern Grampians (S) 7,062 7,393 1.5% 4.7% 0.9%

Warrnambool (C) 12,910 13,450 2.7% 4.2% 0.8%

Ararat (RC) 4,234 4,350 0.9% 2.7% 0.5%

Ballarat (C) 33,799 37,971 7.6% 12.3% 2.4%

Hepburn (S) 3,756 3,595 0.7% -4.3% -0.9%

Moorabool (S) 5,117 5,577 1.1% 9.0% 1.7%

Pyrenees (S) 1,572 1,752 0.3% 11.5% 2.2%

48 | Transport Demand Information Atlas for Victoria 2009


2001 2006

% of

employment

in regional

Victoria

(2006)

%

change

from

2001 to

2006

Average

annual

growth

rate

(AAGR)

Hindmarsh (S) 2,404 2,294 0.5% -4.6% -0.9%

Horsham (RC) 7,792 8,246 1.6% 5.8% 1.1%

Northern Grampians (S) 5,020 4,814 1.0% -4.1% -0.8%

West Wimmera (S) 1,898 1,833 0.4% -3.4% -0.7%

Yarriambiack (S) 3,322 2,785 0.6% -16.2% -3.5%

Buloke (S) 3,151 2,643 0.5% -16.1% -3.5%

Gannawarra (S) 4,868 4,319 0.9% -11.3% -2.4%

Mildura (RC) 18,772 19,418 3.9% 3.4% 0.7%

Swan Hill (RC) 8,607 8,551 1.7% -0.7% -0.1%

Central Goldfields (S) 4,089 3,759 0.7% -8.1% -1.7%

Greater Bendigo (C) 32,771 36,684 7.3% 11.9% 2.3%

Loddon (S) 2,926 2,827 0.6% -3.4% -0.7%

Macedon Ranges (S) 8,664 9,853 2.0% 13.7% 2.6%

Mount Alexander (S) 5,638 5,693 1.1% 1.0% 0.2%

Delatite (S) * 8,143 8,017 1.6% -1.5% -0.3%

Campaspe (S) 14,347 14,509 2.9% 1.1% 0.2%

Greater Shepparton (C) 24,065 25,174 5.0% 4.6% 0.9%

Mitchell (S) 8,121 8,568 1.7% 5.5% 1.1%

Moira (S) 9,241 9,819 2.0% 6.3% 1.2%

Murrindindi (S) 4,046 3,906 0.8% -3.5% -0.7%

Strathbogie (S) 2,742 3,056 0.6% 11.5% 2.2%

Alpine (S) ** 5,464 6,545 1.3% 19.8% 3.7%

Indigo (S) 4,402 4,649 0.9% 5.6% 1.1%

Towong (S) 2,081 1,977 0.4% -5.0% -1.0%

Wangaratta (RC) 10,782 11,377 2.3% 5.5% 1.1%

Wodonga (RC) 13,921 16,045 3.2% 15.3% 2.9%

East Gippsland (S) 12,949 13,997 2.8% 8.1% 1.6%

Wellington (S) 14,647 14,821 3.0% 1.2% 0.2%

Bass Coast (S) 6,751 7,960 1.6% 17.9% 3.3%

Baw Baw (S) 11,846 12,720 2.5% 7.4% 1.4%

Latrobe (C) 25,053 27,609 5.5% 10.2% 2.0%

South Gippsland (S) 9,281 9,627 1.9% 3.7% 0.7%

Total 469,520 502,098 100.0% 6.9% 1.4%

* The LGA of Delatite became Benalla (RC) and Mansfield (S) in 2002. The 2006 data for Delatite is the sum of Benalla (RC)

and Mansfield (S), named Delatite for consistency.

** Alpine LGA includes various Alpine Resorts (Lake Mountain Alpine Resort, Mount Buller Alpine Resort, Mount Stirling Alpine

Resort, Falls Creek Alpine Resort, Mount Hotham Alpine Resort and Mount Baw Baw Alpine Resort).

Volume 2: Regional Victoria A compendium of statistics and information | 49


Employment for various

LGA groups 2001 2006

% of

employment

in regional

Victoria

(2006)

% change

from

2001 to

2006

Average

annual

growth

rate

(AAGR)

Five key regions of Victoria

North-west 103,833 108,256 21.6% 4.3% 0.8%

West 71,018 75,556 15.0% 6.4% 1.2%

South-west 121,087 132,370 26.4% 9.3% 1.8%

North-east 93,008 99,133 19.7% 6.6% 1.3%

South-east 80,527 86,734 17.3% 7.7% 1.5%

Total 469,473 502,049 100.0% 6.9% 1.4%

‘Big Five’ LGAs 182,530 202,075 40.3% 10.7% 2.1%

‘Middle Eight’ LGAs 110,174 116,337 23.2% 5.6% 1.1%

LGAs within 150 km of

metropolitan Melbourne 238,324 262,062 52.2% 10.0% 1.9%

• In 2006, the ‘Big Five’ regional LGAs (those with employment over 20,000 – Greater Geelong,

Ballarat, Greater Bendigo, Greater Shepparton and Latrobe) provided total employment of

around 202,000, 40 per cent of the total employment of around 502,000 in all of regional

Victoria. Each of the Big Five, apart from Greater Shepparton, enjoyed an average annual

growth rate of employment of more than 2 per cent between 2001 and 2006, which compares

favourably with the average for regional Victoria of 1.4 per cent per annum.

• The ‘Middle Eight’ regional LGAs (those with employment between 10,000 and 20,000 –

Warrnambool, Mildura, Campaspe, Wangaratta, Wodonga, East Gippsland, Wellington and

Baw Baw) provided total employment of around 116,000 in 2006, around 23 per cent of total

employment in regional Victoria. With the notable exception of Wodonga, which enjoyed

an above-average annual employment growth of 2.9 per cent, these medium sized LGAs

experienced employment growth around or below the regional average.

• Each of the remaining 33 LGAs employed less than 10,000 people in 2006, and the total

employment generated by these LGAs was around 184,000, 37 per cent of total regional

employment. Three of the smaller LGAs – Surf Coast, Bass Coast and Alpine – enjoyed

very strong employment growth between 2001 and 2006, averaging over 3 per cent per

annum. This probably reflects the recent popularity of these regions with tourists and as

places for short breaks. They have enjoyed solid growth in employment in construction and

accommodation, cafes and restaurants. A few of the small LGAs (Golden Plains, Macedon

Ranges, Pyrenees and Strathbogie) have experienced employment growth of around

2–2.5 per cent per annum, while around twelve smaller LGAs have experienced average

annual employment growth of around the regional average (e.g. Horsham 1.1 per cent,

Colac-Otway 1.4 per cent, Mitchell 1.1 per cent and Moira 1.2 per cent) or only just positive

(e.g. Wellington and Mt Alexander, each just 0.2 per cent per annum). There are around

50 | Transport Demand Information Atlas for Victoria 2009


12 smaller LGAs which experienced declines in employment between 2001 and 2006;

most of these LGAs have an agricultural sector which has a large dry land farming component

(dry land farms are more likely to amalgamate over time, especially in drought periods) and

less diversified economies than others.

• There are around 17 regional LGAs which fall within a 150km radius of central Melbourne,

and it is noticeable that a number of them experienced above-average employment growth

over the 2001–2006 period. These LGAs and their average annual growth rates of employment

include: Surf Coast 3.1 per cent; Greater Geelong 2.2 per cent; Golden Plains 2.1 per cent;

Moorabool 1.7 per cent; Ballarat 2.4 per cent; Greater Bendigo 2.3 per cent; Macedon

Ranges 2.6 per cent; Bass Coast 3.3 per cent; and Latrobe 2 per cent. In 2006, the LGAs

within 150 km of central Melbourne generated 262,000 jobs, equivalent to 52 per cent of

total regional employment; their average annual growth rate of employment was 1.9 per cent

between 2001 and 2006.

• Outside the 150 km radius of Melbourne, there are only a few LGAs that experienced

above-average employment growth: Moyne, Wodonga and Alpine.

• Proximity to Melbourne contributes to the economic and employment growth prospects

of regions. Some residents of these proximate regional LGAs work in firms that supply the

Melbourne market; some work in Melbourne (in the case of Geelong, the number is significant

– more than 6,000) and bring their spending power back to their home regions; and some

work in activities (e.g. accommodation, restaurants, cafes, construction, retail trade) that serve

the needs of Melburnians who visit regularly. The large regional cities within the 150 km radius

(Geelong, Ballarat, Bendigo) and the cluster of towns in the Latrobe Valley have diversified

economies, which assists their ability to generate employment growth.

• The transport requirements (freight, commuting, business trips and weekend/tourism travel)

are substantial within a 150km radius of Melbourne.

Volume 2: Regional Victoria A compendium of statistics and information | 51


Growth in

employment by

sector, Victoria,

1996–2006

Industry 1996 2001 2006

Agriculture, forestry and fishing 74,179 72,401 63,712

Mining 5,626 4,432 6,279

Manufacturing 297,760 311,761 287,105

Electricity, gas and water supply 16,196 16,880 20,015

Construction 108,120 132,498 171,463

Wholesale trade 110,330 111,078 112,552

Retail trade 194,902 236,228 263,448

Accommodation, cafes & restaurants 103,982 120,221 131,840

Transport and storage 82,740 88,766 103,816

Communication services 52,179 55,407 49,935

Finance and insurance 78,037 82,273 92,295

Rental, hiring and real estate services 21,979 29,419 30,777

Professional, scientific and

technical services 125,070 148,866 161,616

Administration & support services 51,377 68,418 74,923

Public administration 92,115 86,207 116,971

Education 137,315 156,867 174,424

Health and community services 174,375 199,269 236,551

Cultural and recreational services 27,437 30,478 35,651

Other services 83,686 79,943 81,642

Not classified/not stated 60,554 49,158 59,430

Total Victoria 1,897,959 2,080,570 2,274,445

Source: Patrick Webb (DIIRD), based on the ABS 1996, 2001 and 2006 Census

• The major industries of employment of Victorians are: manufacturing; retail trade; health and

community services; education; construction; professional, scientific and technical services;

accommodation, cafes and restaurants; public administration; wholesale trade; transport and

storage; and finance and insurance.

• Of these, only five industries (construction; retail trade; accommodation, cafes and

restaurants; education; health and community services) experienced employment growth that

was at or above the overall Victorian average annual employment growth (almost 2 per cent)

in each of the last two inter-censal periods (1996 to 2001 and 2001 to 2006). This consistent

above-average growth suggests that these industries are likely to experience sound

employment growth over the medium to long term future, although the construction sector

may be characterised by sharper reactions to cyclical macroeconomic ups and downs than

the other four sectors. These five sectors all relate to areas of spending upon which the higher

income developed countries tend to focus. The outlook for employment in education is likely

to be reinforced by increasing government attention to this sector, while the ageing of the

population will drive investment and employment in health and community services. Those

parts of Victoria which have a strong representation of some or all of these five sectors are

likely to enjoy good employment growth overall.

52 | Transport Demand Information Atlas for Victoria 2009


Change from 1996

to 2001

Average annual %

change 1996 to 2001

Change from 2001

to 2006

Average annual %

change 2001 to 2006

-1,778 -0.5 -8,689 -2.5

-1,179 -4.7 1,847 7.2

14,001 0.9 -24,656 -1.4

684 0.8 3,135 3.5

24,378 4.1 38,965 5.3

748 0.1 1,474 0.2

41,326 3.9 27,220 2.2

16,239 2.9 11,619 1.9

6,026 1.5 15,050 3.2

3,228 1.2 -5,472 -2.1

4,236 1.1 10,022 2.3

7,440 6.0 1358 4.6

23,796 3.5 12,750 1.7

17,041 5.9 6505 1.8

-5,908 -1.3 30,764 6.2

19,552 2.7 17,557 2.1

24,894 2.7 37,282 3.5

3,041 2.1 5,173 3.2

-3,743 -0.9 1,699 0.4

-11396 -4.1 10,272 3.9

182,611 1.9 193,875 1.8

• Manufacturing remains a high employer of Victorians, but employment has been declining in

recent years in the face of stiff international competition and the industry’s response in terms of

introducing labour saving measures and relocating overseas. In only a few Melbourne LGAs,

principally Greater Dandenong and Wyndham, has manufacturing employment increased.

Employment growth was quite sound in the two inter-censal periods in transport and storage

and professional, scientific and technical services. Those LGAs with a presence in these areas

may experience reasonable employment growth.

Employment in public administration is characterised by periods of negative growth

followed by corrections. Employment in finance and insurance has not grown as fast as

overall employment.

Volume 2: Regional Victoria A compendium of statistics and information | 53


Growth in

employment by

sector, Victoria,

2001–2006

Industry 2001 2006

Change

from

2001 to

2006

2001 to

2006 %

change

Average

annual %

change

2001 to

2006

• Those sectors that are

providing employment to

substantial numbers of

regional Victorians are:

retail trade; construction;

health and community

services; manufacturing;

agriculture, forestry and

fishing; education; property

and business services;

accommodation, cafes and

restaurants; and government

administration and defence.

Employment in agriculture

has fallen in recent years

as consolidation of farms

into larger properties has

continued - a long term

trend that has probably

been reinforced by the

prolonged Victorian drought.

Employment in construction

has increased substantially,

especially in the large

regional cities and the Surf

Coast and East Gippsland.

Regional employment in

government administration,

and health and community

services, has also

increased strongly.

Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing 57,202 50,218 -6,984 -12% -2.6%

Mining 1,677 2,704 1,027 61% 10.0%

Manufacturing 64,410 62,112 -2,298 -4% -0.7%

Electricity, Gas and Water Supply 5,654 5,651 -3 0% 0.0%

Construction 24,320 31,286 6,966 29% 5.2%

Wholesale Trade 20,247 19,414 -833 -4% -0.8%

Retail Trade 77,653 84,303 6,650 9% 1.7%

Accommodation, Cafes and

Restaurants

24,755 25,477 722 3% 0.6%

Transport and Storage 14,276 15,940 1,664 12% 2.2%

Communication Services 5,425 5,311 -114 -2% -0.4%

Finance and Insurance 8,996 9,969 973 11% 2.1%

Property and Business Services 28,727 30,872 2,145 7% 1.5%

Government Administration

and Defence 15,354 23,803 8,449 55% 9.2%

Education 38,306 41,892 3,586 9% 1.8%

Health and Community Services 54,235 63,080 8,845 16% 3.1%

Cultural and Recreational Services 9,027 9,151 124 1% 0.3%

Personal and Other Services 15,655 16,843 1,188 8% 1.5%

Non-classifiable economic units 1,821 3,563 1,742 96% 14.4%

Not stated 1,774 509 -1,265 -71% -22.1%

Total regional Victoria 469,514 502,098 32,584 7% 1.4%

54 | Transport Demand Information Atlas for Victoria 2009


Sectoral shares of

employment in the

‘Big five’ regional

councils (2006)

Greater Geelong Council (total employment 74,637)

• The city of Geelong has

a large and fast-growing

population with substantial

requirements in the areas

of retail goods, education,

health care and community

services. The employment

shares of these sectors are

substantial, together with

manufacturing in which

Geelong has always had

a major presence.

■ Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing (861, 1%)

■ Mining (102, 0%)

■ Manufacturing (12012, 16%)

■ Electricity, Gas & Water Supply (490, 1%)

■ Construction (4597, 6%)

■ Wholesale Trade (2854, 4%)

■ Retail Trade (14317, 19%)

■ Accom., Cafes and Restaurants (3415, 5%)

■ Transport and Storage (2507, 3%)

■ Communication Services (761, 1%)

■ Finance and Insurance (1562, 2%)

■ Property and Business Services (6074, 8%)

■ Govt Admin and Defence (2816, 4%)

■ Education (7195, 10%)

■ Health & Community Services (10206, 14%)

■ Cultural & Recreational Activities (1509, 2%)

■ Personal and Other Services (2897, 4%)

Ballarat Council (total employment 37,971)

• Ballarat is a major regional

city which plays a large role

in providing education, health

and community services

for the surrounding region.

The manufacturing sector in

Ballarat is substantial, with

food processing companies

being well represented.

■ Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing (413, 1%)

■ Mining (175, 0%)

■ Manufacturing (5600, 15%)

■ Electricity, Gas & Water Supply (305, 1%)

■ Construction (2097, 6%)

■ Wholesale Trade (1375, 4%)

■ Retail Trade (6837, 18%)

■ Accom., Cafes and Restaurants (1795, 5%)

■ Transport and Storage (959, 3%)

■ Communication Services (802, 2%)

■ Finance and Insurance (845, 2%)

■ Property and Business Services (2990, 8%)

■ Govt Admin and Defence (1729, 5%)

■ Education (3715, 10%)

■ Health & Community Services (5839, 15%)

■ Cultural & Recreational Activities (1083, 3%)

■ Personal and Other Services (1154, 3%)

Volume 2: Regional Victoria A compendium of statistics and information | 55


Greater Bendigo Council (total employment 36,684)

■ Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing (927, 3%)

■ Mining (474, 1%)

■ Manufacturing (4089, 11%)

■ Electricity, Gas & Water Supply (395, 1%)

■ Construction (2486, 7%)

■ Wholesale Trade (1286, 4%)

■ Retail Trade (6734, 18%)

■ Accom., Cafes and Restaurants (1611, 4%)

■ Transport and Storage (1021, 3%)

■ Communication Services (884, 2%)

■ Finance and Insurance (1559, 4%)

■ Property and Business Services (2400, 7%)

■ Govt Admin and Defence (1886, 5%)

■ Education (3205, 9%)

■ Health & Community Services (5500, 15%)

■ Cultural & Recreational Activities (721, 2%)

■ Personal and Other Services (1237, 3%)

• Like Ballarat, Bendigo was

established in the gold rush

and has since served as

a major service centre for

its region. It plays a major

role for central Victoria as

a city with strong retail,

education, hospital and

community service sectors.

Manufacturing is also

important, with more than

400 businesses operating

in industries such as

defence equipment and

apparel, bricks, furniture

and food processing.

Latrobe Council (total employment 27,609)

■ Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing (609, 2%)

■ Mining (215, 1%)

■ Manufacturing (3026, 11%)

■ Electricity, Gas & Water Supply (1866, 7%)

■ Construction (2368, 9%)

■ Wholesale Trade (899, 3%)

■ Retail Trade (4932, 18%)

■ Accom., Cafes and Restaurants (895, 3%)

■ Transport and Storage (642, 2%)

■ Communication Services (419, 2%)

■ Finance and Insurance (712, 3%)

■ Property and Business Services (1851, 7%)

■ Govt Admin and Defence (1742, 6%)

■ Education (2422, 9%)

■ Health & Community Services (3506, 13%)

■ Cultural & Recreational Activities (369, 1%)

■ Personal and Other Services (897, 3%)

• The Latrobe Valley is the

location of Victoria’s base

load coal-fired electric

generators in Victoria, and

employment in the electricity

sector is significant.

Manufacturing activity is

quite important, some of

it associated with servicing

the electricity sector. Retail

trade, education and health

and community services are

the other major employing

sectors in this LGA.

56 | Transport Demand Information Atlas for Victoria 2009


Greater Shepparton Council (total employment 25,174)

• Of the big five regional LGAs,

Greater Shepparton has the

largest share of employment

in agriculture, forestry and

fishing. The fruit and dairy

industries are substantial in

this LGA, and processing

of agricultural products

underpins the manufacturing

sector in Shepparton and

other towns within the LGA.

Industry shares of

employment in the

‘Middle eight’ regional

councils (2006)

• Warrnambool is a major

service centre for south west

Victoria, playing an important

regional role in the provision

of retail, health, education

and community services. The

manufacturing sector is quite

significant, with an emphasis

on dairy factories and other

food processors.

Warrnambool Council (total employment 13,450)

■ Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing (2447, 10%)

■ Mining (25, 0%)

■ Manufacturing (3469, 14%)

■ Electricity, Gas & Water Supply (548, 2%)

■ Construction (1497, 6%)

■ Wholesale Trade (1286, 5%)

■ Retail Trade (4380, 18%)

■ Accom., Cafes and Restaurants (813, 3%)

■ Transport and Storage (962, 4%)

■ Communication Services (224, 1%)

■ Finance and Insurance (606, 2%)

■ Property and Business Services (1552, 6%)

■ Govt Admin and Defence (870, 3%)

■ Education (1907, 8%)

■ Health & Community Services (3315, 13%)

■ Cultural & Recreational Activities (321, 1%)

■ Personal and Other Services (772, 3%)

■ Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing (171, 1%)

■ Mining (3, 0%)

■ Manufacturing (1051, 8%)

■ Electricity, Gas & Water Supply (159, 1%)

■ Construction (894, 7%)

■ Wholesale Trade (667, 5%)

■ Retail Trade (2898, 22%)

■ Accom., Cafes and Restaurants (818, 6%)

■ Transport and Storage (424, 3%)

■ Communication Services (97, 1%)

■ Finance and Insurance (371, 3%)

■ Property and Business Services (997, 7%)

■ Govt Admin and Defence (604, 5%)

■ Education (1283, 10%)

■ Health & Community Services (2218, 17%)

■ Cultural & Recreational Activities (235, 2%)

■ Personal and Other Services (493, 4%)

Volume 2: Regional Victoria A compendium of statistics and information | 57


Mildura Rural Council (total employment 19,418)

■ Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing (2519, 3%)

■ Mining (41, 0%)

■ Manufacturing (2100, 11%)

■ Electricity, Gas & Water Supply (216, 1%)

■ Construction (998, 5%)

■ Wholesale Trade (1025, 5%)

■ Retail Trade (3547, 18%)

■ Accom., Cafes and Restaurants (876, 5%)

■ Transport and Storage (702, 4%)

■ Communication Services (174, 1%)

■ Finance and Insurance (437, 2%)

■ Property and Business Services (1300, 7%)

■ Govt Admin and Defence (760, 4%)

■ Education (1595, 8%)

■ Health & Community Services (2152, 11%)

■ Cultural & Recreational Activities (237, 1%)

■ Personal and Other Services (542, 3%)

• The Mildura LGA covers

many irrigation properties

along the Murray River in

north-west Victoria and dry

land farms in the northern

Mallee. Employment in

agriculture is substantial,

and there is a large

manufacturing sector in

Mildura and nearby towns

that processes fruits and

vegetables grown by

irrigators. The city of Mildura

is the largest in the region

and has major retail, health,

community services and

education sectors which are

important to the employment

base of Mildura.

Campaspe Shire (total employment 14,509)

■ Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing (2431, 17%)

■ Mining (5, 0%)

■ Manufacturing (2290, 16%)

■ Electricity, Gas & Water Supply (70, 0%)

■ Construction (771, 5%)

■ Wholesale Trade (635, 4%)

■ Retail Trade (2356, 16%)

■ Accom., Cafes and Restaurants (610, 4%)

■ Transport and Storage (482, 3%)

■ Communication Services (73, 1%)

■ Finance and Insurance (309, 2%)

■ Property and Business Services (743, 5%)

■ Govt Admin and Defence (437, 3%)

■ Education (1038, 7%)

■ Health & Community Services (1611, 11%)

■ Cultural & Recreational Activities (181, 1%)

■ Personal and Other Services (372, 3%)

• Agriculture, forestry and

fishing and manufacturing

account for 33 per cent

of total employment in

Campaspe Shire. Agriculture

in this LGA is comprised

of dry land farming and

irrigated dairy, horticulture

and viticulture properties

near the Murray River. Retail

trade, education and health

and community services are

also important employers,

and tourism is important

to the significant river town

of Echuca. Manufacturing

companies also employ

significant numbers,

including in food processing,

packaging and water tanks.

58 | Transport Demand Information Atlas for Victoria 2009


Wangaratta Rural Council (total employment 11,377)

• Manufacturing employment

is quite significant in the

Wangaratta LGA. The

manufactured products

include fibreboard,

aluminium products and

fertilisers. The retail and

health and community

services sectors also

employ substantial

numbers of people.

■ Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing (1035, 9%)

■ Mining (7, 0%)

■ Manufacturing (1663, 15%)

■ Electricity, Gas & Water Supply (20, 0%)

■ Construction (640, 6%)

■ Wholesale Trade (382, 3%)

■ Retail Trade (1972, 17%)

■ Accom., Cafes and Restaurants (446, 4%)

■ Transport and Storage (282, 2%)

■ Communication Services (108, 1%)

■ Finance and Insurance (218, 2%)

■ Property and Business Services (526, 5%)

■ Govt Admin and Defence (592, 5%)

■ Education (798, 7%)

■ Health & Community Services (1999, 18%)

■ Cultural & Recreational Activities (170, 2%)

■ Personal and Other Services (434, 4%)

Wodonga Rural Council (total employment 16,045)

• Much of this LGA is

comprised of the city

of Wodonga, and thus

agriculture’s share of

employment is comparatively

small. There is an army

base within the shire.

Wodonga also has a strong

manufacturing sector,

including food processing,

packaging, fertilisers and

transformers. Reflecting the

importance of Wodonga

and its NSW neighbour

Albury as important centres

for northeast Victoria and

southeast NSW, Wodonga

also has substantial

levels of employment in

retail trade, education,

health and community

services, and property

and business services.

■ Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing (126, 1%)

■ Mining (12, 0%)

■ Manufacturing (2997, 19%)

■ Electricity, Gas & Water Supply (70, 0%)

■ Construction (1066, 7%)

■ Wholesale Trade (629, 4%)

■ Retail Trade (2496,16%)

■ Accom., Cafes and Restaurants (443, 3%)

■ Transport and Storage (578, 4%)

■ Communication Services (88, 1%)

■ Finance and Insurance (299, 2%)

■ Property and Business Services (1459, 9%)

■ Govt Admin and Defence (1781, 11%)

■ Education (1329, 8%)

■ Health & Community Services (1870, 12%)

■ Cultural & Recreational Activities (212, 1%)

■ Personal and Other Services (450, 3%)

Volume 2: Regional Victoria A compendium of statistics and information | 59


East Gippsland Shire (total employment 13,997)

■ Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing (1408, 10%)

■ Mining (26, 0%)

■ Manufacturing (1172, 8%)

■ Electricity, Gas & Water Supply (106, 1%)

■ Construction (995, 7%)

■ Wholesale Trade (596, 4%)

■ Retail Trade (2524, 18%)

■ Accom., Cafes and Restaurants (1086, 8%)

■ Transport and Storage (488, 4%)

■ Communication Services (99, 1%)

■ Finance and Insurance (219, 2%)

■ Property and Business Services (732, 5%)

■ Govt Admin and Defence (536, 4%)

■ Education (1300, 9%)

■ Health & Community Services (1845, 13%)

■ Cultural & Recreational Activities (241, 2%)

■ Personal and Other Services (488, 4%)

• Forestry and fishing are

important industries and

employers in East Gippsland.

Dairy, cattle and horticulture

are the principal agricultural

industries. Manufacturing

is based primarily on food

processing. Retail trade

is an important employer,

underpinned in part by the

significant tourism sector,

especially around the

Gippsland Lakes. Education

and health and community

services are also important

employers, as they are

in most regional LGAs.

Wellington Shire (total employment 14,821)

■ Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing (2226, 15%)

■ Mining (481, 3%)

■ Manufacturing (1197, 8%)

■ Electricity, Gas & Water Supply (156, 1%)

■ Construction (879, 6%)

■ Wholesale Trade (417, 3%)

■ Retail Trade (2315, 16%)

■ Accom., Cafes and Restaurants (647, 4%)

■ Transport and Storage (374, 3%)

■ Communication Services (106, 1%)

■ Finance and Insurance (233, 2%)

■ Property and Business Services (784, 5%)

■ Govt Admin and Defence (967, 7%)

■ Education (1240, 8%)

■ Health & Community Services (1697, 12%)

■ Cultural & Recreational Activities (195, 1%)

■ Personal and Other Services (718, 5 %)

• Dairy, grazing and horticulture

are important agricultural

industries and employers

in the Wellington LGA, and

forestry and fishing activities

are also significant. Retail

trade, education and health

and community services are

also important employers.

Manufacturing industries

include synthetic fibres,

carpets and leather products.

60 | Transport Demand Information Atlas for Victoria 2009


Baw Baw Shire (total employment 12,720)

• Forestry and agricultural

activities are major employers

in Baw Baw, together with

retail trade, education and

health and community

services. Tourism associated

with ski fields is fostering

increased employment in

the accommodation sector.

Industry shares

of employment

in selected smaller

regional councils

(2006)

• Dairy and grazing activities

underpin agricultural

employment in this

LGA, and forestry is also

important. Retail trade,

manufacturing, education

and health and community

services also make

significant contributions

to employment.

Colac-Otway Shire (total employment 8,713)

■ Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing (1882, 15%)

■ Mining (27, 0%)

■ Manufacturing (1127, 9%)

■ Electricity, Gas & Water Supply (26, 0%)

■ Construction (864, 7%)

■ Wholesale Trade (705, 6%)

■ Retail Trade (1924, 15%)

■ Accom., Cafes and Restaurants (592, 5%)

■ Transport and Storage (363, 3%)

■ Communication Services (120, 1%)

■ Finance and Insurance (222, 2%)

■ Property and Business Services (744, 6%)

■ Govt Admin and Defence (448, 4%)

■ Education (1317, 10%)

■ Health & Community Services (1521, 12%)

■ Cultural & Recreational Activities (196, 2%)

■ Personal and Other Services (531, 4%)

■ Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing (1221, 14%)

■ Mining (13, 0%)

■ Manufacturing (975, 11%)

■ Electricity, Gas & Water Supply (47, 1%)

■ Construction (476, 6%)

■ Wholesale Trade (397, 5%)

■ Retail Trade (1370, 16%)

■ Accom., Cafes and Restaurants (540, 6%)

■ Transport and Storage (328, 4%)

■ Communication Services (62, 1%)

■ Finance and Insurance (115, 1%)

■ Property and Business Services (580, 7%)

■ Govt Admin and Defence (504, 6%)

■ Education (559, 6%)

■ Health & Community Services (1018, 12%)

■ Cultural & Recreational Activities (137, 2%)

■ Personal and Other Services (290, 3%)

Volume 2: Regional Victoria A compendium of statistics and information | 61


Surf Coast Shire (total employment 6,002)

■ Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing (548, 9%)

■ Mining (10, 0%)

■ Manufacturing (314, 5%)

■ Electricity, Gas & Water Supply (108, 2%)

■ Construction (754, 13%)

■ Wholesale Trade (427, 7%)

■ Retail Trade (957, 16%)

■ Accom., Cafes and Restaurants (812, 14%)

■ Transport and Storage (107, 2%)

■ Communication Services (35, 1%)

■ Finance and Insurance (87, 1%)

■ Property and Business Services (444, 7%)

■ Govt Admin and Defence (194, 3%)

■ Education (295, 5%)

■ Health & Community Services (475, 8%)

■ Cultural & Recreational Activities (195, 3%)

■ Personal and Other Services (182, 3%)

• The Surf Coast has

become a very popular

destination for seaside

recreational activities and

the tourism sector has been

burgeoning, as reflected

in the significant share

(14 per cent) of employment

generated in the LGA’s

accommodation, restaurant

and café sector. Retail

trade is also substantial,

boosted by tourist spending.

The robust retail activity

underpins a significant and

growing wholesale trade

sector. The education and

health and community

sectors are significant,

but are comparatively small

employers due to the relative

importance of the tourism,

retail and wholesale sectors.

Corangamite Shire (total employment 7,237)

■ Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing (2455, 34%)

■ Mining (67, 1%)

■ Manufacturing (627, 9%)

■ Electricity, Gas & Water Supply (59, 1%)

■ Construction (490, 7%)

■ Wholesale Trade (337, 5%)

■ Retail Trade (820, 11%)

■ Accom., Cafes and Restaurants (270, 4%)

■ Transport and Storage (265, 4%)

■ Communication Services (55, 1%)

■ Finance and Insurance (55, 1%)

■ Property and Business Services (165, 2%)

■ Govt Admin and Defence (186, 3%)

■ Education (462, 6%)

■ Health & Community Services (686, 10%)

■ Cultural & Recreational Activities (54, 1%)

■ Personal and Other Services (108, 2%)

• Dairy and grazing activities

dominate the agriculture

sector in Corangamite

shire, and employment in

agriculture is particularly

important to this LGA.

As in other LGAs, the retail,

education and health

and community service

sectors are also significant

employers.

62 | Transport Demand Information Atlas for Victoria 2009


Glenelg Shire (total employment 7,947)

• The Glenelg LGA

incorporates good grazing

country with reliable rainfall,

extensive hardwood and

softwood plantations, and

Portland port which handles

large volumes of exports

of grains, woodchips and

live sheep. Woodchip

exports will increase

substantially over the next

few years as extensive

plantations in the region

mature. The high number

of people in manufacturing

in Glenelg partly reflects

the large aluminium smelter

at Portland.

■ Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing (1197, 15%)

■ Mining (8, 0%)

■ Manufacturing (1603, 20%)

■ Electricity, Gas & Water Supply (28, 0%)

■ Construction (423, 5%)

■ Wholesale Trade (226, 3%)

■ Retail Trade (1107, 14%)

■ Accom., Cafes and Restaurants (354, 4%)

■ Transport and Storage (384, 5%)

■ Communication Services (51, 1%)

■ Finance and Insurance (105, 1%)

■ Property and Business Services (358, 5%)

■ Govt Admin and Defence (250, 3%)

■ Education (505, 6%)

■ Health & Community Services (877, 11%)

■ Cultural & Recreational Activities (93, 1%)

■ Personal and Other Services (300, 4%)

Ararat Rural Council (total employment 4,350)

• The Ararat Shire falls in the

southern Wimmera and

Western District, where

agriculture has historically

been strong and relatively

reliable in terms of seasonal

conditions. Key agricultural

products include grains,

wool, meat and wine.

Employment is significant

in the agricultural sector,

and also in retail trade,

government administration,

education, and health

and community services.

Manufacturing employment

is also quite significant.

■ Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing (847, 20%)

■ Mining (0, 0%)

■ Manufacturing (556, 13%)

■ Electricity, Gas & Water Supply (18, 0%)

■ Construction (200, 5%)

■ Wholesale Trade (145, 3%)

■ Retail Trade (651, 15%)

■ Accom., Cafes and Restaurants (143, 3%)

■ Transport and Storage (93, 2%)

■ Communication Services (29, 1%)

■ Finance and Insurance (59, 1%)

■ Property and Business Services (125, 3%)

■ Govt Admin and Defence (273, 6%)

■ Education (328, 8%)

■ Health & Community Services (540, 12%)

■ Cultural & Recreational Activities (35, 1%)

■ Personal and Other Services (288, 7%)

Volume 2: Regional Victoria A compendium of statistics and information | 63


Hindmarsh Shire (total employment 2,294)

■ Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing (669, 29%)

■ Mining (0, 0%)

■ Manufacturing (187, 8%)

■ Electricity, Gas & Water Supply (11, 0%)

■ Construction (84, 4%)

■ Wholesale Trade (79, 3%)

■ Retail Trade (255, 11%)

■ Accom., Cafes and Restaurants (72, 3%)

■ Transport and Storage (157, 7%)

■ Communication Services (19, 1%)

■ Finance and Insurance (19, 1%)

■ Property and Business Services (43, 2%)

■ Govt Admin and Defence (72, 3%)

■ Education (166, 7%)

■ Health & Community Services (389, 17%)

■ Cultural & Recreational Activities (3, 0%)

■ Personal and Other Services (51, 2%)

• Hindmarsh LGA is located

in the dry land farming area

of northwest Victoria. Total

population and employment

in the shire are small. Farm

employment accounts for

a substantial 29 per cent

of total employment.

Agricultural employment

declined between 2001 and

2006 as farm amalgamations

have continued. The

other sectors contributing

significant shares of

employment are retail trade,

transport and storage,

education, and health and

community services.

Horsham Rural Council (total employment 8,246)

■ Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing (851, 10%)

■ Mining (34, 0%)

■ Manufacturing (429, 5%)

■ Electricity, Gas & Water Supply (162, 2%)

■ Construction (546, 7%)

■ Wholesale Trade (448, 5%)

■ Retail Trade (1557, 19%)

■ Accom., Cafes and Restaurants (344, 4%)

■ Transport and Storage (280, 3%)

■ Communication Services (69, 1%)

■ Finance and Insurance (213, 3%)

■ Property and Business Services (542, 7%)

■ Govt Admin and Defence (481, 6%)

■ Education (563, 7%)

■ Health & Community Services (1070, 13%)

■ Cultural & Recreational Activities (144, 2%)

■ Personal and Other Services (456, 6%)

• Horsham has enjoyed sound

population and economic

growth as a centre for

various services for the

western Wimmera region.

Horsham has a strong retail

and wholesale trade sector,

followed by health and

community services. Retail

activity accounts for almost

a fifth of employment in the

shire. Education is another

major employer.

64 | Transport Demand Information Atlas for Victoria 2009


Buloke Shire (total employment 2,643)

• The Buloke LGA is located in

the Mallee dry land farming

region, with the principal

agricultural products being

grains, lamb, mutton, wool

and pigmeats. The towns in

Buloke are quite small, and

the LGA’s overall population

is modest. The number of

people working on farms in

August 2006 was around

875, down from 1,100 in

2001, mainly as a result of

farm consolidation. Farm

employment still accounts for

a substantial 33 per cent of

the LGA’s total employment.

■ Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing (876, 33%)

■ Mining (7, 0%)

■ Manufacturing (127, 5%)

■ Electricity, Gas & Water Supply (26, 1%)

■ Construction (109, 4%)

■ Wholesale Trade (135, 5%)

■ Retail Trade (321, 12%)

■ Accom., Cafes and Restaurants (85, 3%)

■ Transport and Storage (102, 4%)

■ Communication Services (23, 1%)

■ Finance and Insurance (30, 1%)

■ Property and Business Services (59, 2%)

■ Govt Admin and Defence (132, 5%)

■ Education (246, 9%)

■ Health & Community Services (315, 12%)

■ Cultural & Recreational Activities (5, 0%)

■ Personal and Other Services (33, 1%)

Swan Hill Rural Council (total employment 8,551)

• The Swan Hill area includes

irrigated horticulture, citrus,

stone fruits, almonds, olives

and vines, generating a

sizeable demand for labour.

There are food processing

companies in Swan Hill,

and almost 800 people are

employed in manufacturing

overall, up by about 100

people since 2001. The

city of Swan Hill is an

important regional centre,

and consequently retail,

education and health and

community services are all

significant employers.

■ Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing (1846, 22%)

■ Mining (17, 0%)

■ Manufacturing (772, 9%)

■ Electricity, Gas & Water Supply (46, 1%)

■ Construction (454, 5%)

■ Wholesale Trade (441, 5%)

■ Retail Trade (1360, 16%)

■ Accom., Cafes and Restaurants (320, 4%)

■ Transport and Storage (284, 3%)

■ Communication Services (66, 1%)

■ Finance and Insurance (170, 2%)

■ Property and Business Services (410, 5%)

■ Govt Admin and Defence (331, 4%)

■ Education (666, 8%)

■ Health & Community Services (898, 11%)

■ Cultural & Recreational Activities (107, 1%)

■ Personal and Other Services (289, 3%)

Volume 2: Regional Victoria A compendium of statistics and information | 65


Macedon Ranges Shire (total employment 9,853)

■ Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing (577, 6%)

■ Mining (16, 0%)

■ Manufacturing (1007, 10%)

■ Electricity, Gas & Water Supply (44, 0%)

■ Construction (788, 8%)

■ Wholesale Trade (408, 4%)

■ Retail Trade (1735, 18%)

■ Accom., Cafes and Restaurants (638, 7%)

■ Transport and Storage (333, 3%)

■ Communication Services (82, 1%)

■ Finance and Insurance (181, 2%)

■ Property and Business Services (735, 8%)

■ Govt Admin and Defence (493, 5%)

■ Education (1046, 11%)

■ Health & Community Services (1047, 11%)

■ Cultural & Recreational Activities (252, 3%)

■ Personal and Other Services (344, 4%)

• The Macedon Ranges Shire

is close to the Melbourne

metropolitan area, and

partly serves as a ‘dormitory’

for people working in

Melbourne. The retail sector

serves the burgeoning

population, and education,

health and community

services are required. The

manufacturing sector is

well placed to serve the

Melbourne market.

Mount Alexander Shire (total employment 5,693)

■ Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing (392, 7%)

■ Mining (36, 1%)

■ Manufacturing (1350, 24%)

■ Electricity, Gas & Water Supply (12, 0%)

■ Construction (336, 6%)

■ Wholesale Trade (133, 2%)

■ Retail Trade (866, 15%)

■ Accom., Cafes and Restaurants (259, 5%)

■ Transport and Storage (127, 2%)

■ Communication Services (40, 1%)

■ Finance and Insurance (56, 1%)

■ Property and Business Services (276, 5%)

■ Govt Admin and Defence (193, 3%)

■ Education (405, 7%)

■ Health & Community Services (720, 13%)

■ Cultural & Recreational Activities (138, 2%)

■ Personal and Other Services (306, 5%)

• Mount Alexander Shire

has a comparatively

strong manufacturing role.

Manufacturing industries

include pigmeat products,

meat processing and

pump and compressor

manufacturing. The

manufacturing sector has a

handful of large companies.

The retail trade sector

employs significant numbers

of people, with towns such

as Castlemaine and Maldon

attracting tourists. Education

and health and community

services are also important.

66 | Transport Demand Information Atlas for Victoria 2009


Mitchell Shire (total employment 8,568)

• The major employing sectors

in the Mitchell Shire are the

retail trade, government

administration and

defence (the shire includes

Puckapunyal army base),

education and health and

community services.

■ Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing (467, 6%)

■ Mining (47, 1%)

■ Manufacturing (764, 9%)

■ Electricity, Gas & Water Supply (39, 0%)

■ Construction (571, 7%)

■ Wholesale Trade (202, 2%)

■ Retail Trade (1605, 19%)

■ Accom., Cafes and Restaurants (360, 4%)

■ Transport and Storage (313, 4%)

■ Communication Services (107, 1%)

■ Finance and Insurance (92, 1%)

■ Property and Business Services (454, 5%)

■ Govt Admin and Defence (1182, 14%)

■ Education (878, 10%)

■ Health & Community Services (890, 10%)

■ Cultural & Recreational Activities (206, 2%)

■ Personal and Other Services (313, 4%)

Alpine Shire (total employment 6,545)

• The Alpine Shire is home

to several skiing resorts

which drive up the

share of employment in

accommodation, cafes and

restaurants. The retail sector

is underpinned by spending

by skiers and other tourists.

■ Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing (561, 9%)

■ Mining (3, 0%)

■ Manufacturing (568, 9%)

■ Electricity, Gas & Water Supply (75, 1%)

■ Construction (292, 5%)

■ Wholesale Trade (82, 1%)

■ Retail Trade (771, 12%)

■ Accom., Cafes and Restaurants (1638, 25%)

■ Transport and Storage (263, 4%)

■ Communication Services (29, 0%)

■ Finance and Insurance (55, 1%)

■ Property and Business Services (345, 5%)

■ Govt Admin and Defence (188, 3%)

■ Education (405, 6%)

■ Health & Community Services (492, 8%)

■ Cultural & Recreational Activities (498, 8%)

■ Personal and Other Services (215, 3%)

Volume 2: Regional Victoria A compendium of statistics and information | 67


Bass Coast Shire (total employment 7,960)

■ Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing (642, 8%)

■ Mining (35, 0%)

■ Manufacturing (573, 7%)

■ Electricity, Gas & Water Supply (64, 1%)

■ Construction (796, 10%)

■ Wholesale Trade (270, 3%)

■ Retail Trade (1507, 19%)

■ Accom., Cafes and Restaurants (764, 10%)

■ Transport and Storage (179, 2%)

■ Communication Services (64, 1%)

■ Finance and Insurance (117, 1%)

■ Property and Business Services (495, 6%)

■ Govt Admin and Defence (284, 4%)

■ Education (519, 7%)

■ Health & Community Services (995, 13%)

■ Cultural & Recreational Activities (300, 4%)

■ Personal and Other Services (285, 4%)

• This LGA includes Phillip

Island and other coastal

destinations that enjoy strong

tourist numbers. Employment

in the accommodation,

cafes and restaurants sector

is substantial, and visitors’

spending boosts the retail

sector. Construction and

property and business

services employment are

significant, reflecting growth

in accommodation for

holiday and weekend visitors.

South Gippsland Shire (total employment 9,627)

■ Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing (2239, 23%)

■ Mining (82, 1%)

■ Manufacturing (983, 10%)

■ Electricity, Gas & Water Supply (88, 1%)

■ Construction (531, 6%)

■ Wholesale Trade (418, 4%)

■ Retail Trade (1359, 14%)

■ Accom., Cafes and Restaurants (413, 4%)

■ Transport and Storage (348, 4%)

■ Communication Services (61, 1%)

■ Finance and Insurance (158, 2%)

■ Property and Business Services (441, 5%)

■ Govt Admin and Defence (282, 3%)

■ Education (733, 8%)

■ Health & Community Services (989, 10%)

■ Cultural & Recreational Activities (160, 2%)

■ Personal and Other Services (250, 3%)

• South Gippsland has

strong timber and dairy

industries which account

for a significant share of

employment in the Shire.

Local manufacturing services

help support the primary

industries.

68 | Transport Demand Information Atlas for Victoria 2009


Sectors showing

marked employment

growth or contraction

Industry

Health and

Community Services

Govt Admin &

Defence

Change in

employment

in regional

Victoria from

2001 to 2006

LGAs experiencing

significant employment

increases or decreases

between 2001 and 2006

Comments

growth

%

change LGA growth

8,845 16.3% Greater Geelong 1,742 Large, growing

population requires

health and related

services

Ballarat 833 Major regional city

Greater Bendigo 783 Major regional city

Greater

625 Major regional centre

Shepparton

Wodonga 396 Major regional centre

Warrnambool 352 Major regional centre

Wangaratta 307 Major regional centre

8,449 55% Greater Geelong 950 Growth and

Greater Bendigo 731 centralisation of

government services

Ballarat 692

in these major regional

Latrobe 563

cities and centres

Greater

402

Shepparton

Wodonga 389

Construction 6,966 28.6% Greater Geelong 911 Construction activity

Latrobe 911 robust in major centres

to provide housing, retail

Greater Bendigo 636

facilities and buildings

Ballarat 478

for the provision of

Wodonga 392 health, education and

Greater

Shepparton

346 other services

East Gippsland 316

Retail Trade 6,650 8.5% Greater Geelong 1,623 Retail trade is a growth

Ballarat 744 sector, and the larger

regional cities and

Latrobe 613

towns tend to attract

Greater Bendigo 544

customers from smaller

Mitchell 339 townships over time

Mildura 327

Education 3,586 9.4% Greater Geelong 912 Historical centres

Ballarat 489 of education

Greater Bendigo 367

Property and

2,145 7.5% Ballarat 621 Cities that have

Business Services

Greater Geelong 611 experienced sound

Wodonga 434

commercial growth

Volume 2: Regional Victoria A compendium of statistics and information | 69


Industry

Transport and

Storage

Personal and Other

Services

Change in

employment

in regional

Victoria from

2001 to 2006

LGAs experiencing

significant employment

increases or decreases

between 2001 and 2006

Comments

growth

%

change LGA growth

1,664 11.7% Geelong 363 Fast growing population

Greater Bendigo 134 in Geelong

Wellington -133

1,188 7.6% Greater Geelong 434 Fast growing population

Horsham 160 Growing regional centre

Mining 1,027 61.2% Greater Bendigo 349 Rejuvenated gold mining

Southern

231 Mineral sands

Grampians

Ballarat 137 Rejuvenated gold mining

Agriculture, Forestry -6,984 -12.2% Mildura -712 Continuation of

and Fishing

Campaspe -510 post-WW2 trend of

farm amalgamations,

Greater

-501

possibly reinforced by

Shepparton

long drought

Swan Hill -340

Baw Baw -339

Southern

-305

Grampians

Corangamite -304

Wellington -304

Yarriambiack -303

Gannawarra -301

Manufacturing -2,298 -3.6% Moyne 525 On average across

Mildura 252

Ararat 132

Warrnambool -585

Greater

-339

Shepparton

Ballarat -318

Wangaratta -317

Victoria, manufacturing

employment has

declined as a result of

sharp international and

domestic competition

causing manufacturers

to respond by going

offshore, relocating within

Victoria or Australia or

by capital intensification.

Some Victorian regions

have experienced

gains in manufacturing

employment, while others

have experienced falls

Wholesale Trade -833 -4.1% Surf Coast 177 Substantial retail,

Mildura -159 tourism and general

economic growth on the

Greater

-114

Surf Coast

Shepparton

70 | Transport Demand Information Atlas for Victoria 2009


Value-added shares

by sector (Victoria)

Sectors of the Victorian economy – Gross value added: Chain volume measure ($b, 2003–04 prices)

ABS 5220.0 Table 3

• Despite the declining

importance of manufacturing

as an employer, the

economic contribution of

the manufacturing sector

in Victoria increased

between 1990 and 2007.

Manufacturing was only

recently surpassed by

property and business

services as the top value

added sector in Victoria;

this sector has grown

especially quickly.

• Other sectors that have grown

value added significantly

through the 1990s and

2000s include finance and

insurance; wholesale trade;

transport and storage;

retail trade; and health and

community services.

35

30

25

20

15

10

5

0

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Manufacturing Health and community services Wholesale trade

Property and business services Construction Govt admin and defence

Finance and insurance Transport and Storage Accommodation cafes and restaurants

Education

Retail trade

Volume 2: Regional Victoria A compendium of statistics and information | 71


Economic and demographic

factors affecting employment

and population growth

Ageing regional population with sharply increased

age-dependency ratio

(Source: ANZ, Rural and Regional Report, 16 July 2007)

• Population growth in regional Australia has quickened in

recent years, and all of the growth in the past five years has

involved people aged 40 years or more. As has been the

case for many years, young people in many regions have

tended to gravitate to Australia’s large cities for employment

and tertiary education.

• Population ageing will be more marked in regional Australia

than generally, and the ANZ states that continuation of recent

trends would see only 1.5 people of working age for each

person aged 65 or older in forty years’ time (the current ratio

is 4.25:1).

ANZ Regional and Rural Quarterly – March and

June Quarter 2009

This section summarises the short-term outlook for the

agricultural sector prepared by the ANZ Economics in the

first half of 2009. This information is regularly updated at:

http://www.anz.com/corporate/economics-markets-research/

australian-industry-economics/rural-regional-reports/

The Big Picture

The global economic slowdown has had a major impact on

some of Australia’s largest trade partners. For example, Japan,

a key consumer of Australian agricultural exports, contracted by

3.8 per cent in the first quarter of 2009. While this would reduce

demand for Australian exports, there are signs of a recovery in

emerging trade partner countries such as China, where imports

and consumer spending are beginning to pick up.

There have also been signs that confidence is returning in

world financial markets, with equity markets rallying between

mid-March 2009 and mid-May 2009. As part of this, the

Australian dollar has appreciated to over 80 US cents as

of 1 June, indicating investors are becoming less risk-averse

and are willing to invest in Australian assets.

Australia has fared better than most developed world

counterparts through the global downturn, with the country

unexpectedly recording positive economic growth of

0.4 per cent for the March 2009 quarter after a 0.5 per cent

contraction in the previous quarter.

The agricultural sector, in particular, has performed strongly

during this period. Agricultural activity improved in 2008 after

two years of drought. Strong rainfall in the Northern regions of

Australia has improved the outlook for agricultural production

in these areas while a return to average winter rainfall in 2009

would boost cattle, sheep and grain production in South

Eastern regions of the country. Since March 2009, commodity

prices have regained some ground lost in the midst of the

downturn. However, the positive effect this would have on

income in the sector has been offset to some extent by the

simultaneous appreciation of the Australian dollar. Nevertheless,

ANZ forecasts strong growth in the agricultural sector in 2009.

Other major industries driving growth in regional areas are

tourism and construction. The appreciation in the Australian

currency, coupled with the H1N1 swine flu outbreak, is likely to

deter international visitors from visiting Australia. Furthermore,

the higher dollar encourages Australians to undertake overseas

travel as opposed to domestic travel, further subduing the local

tourism industry.

Meanwhile, construction in regional areas is slowing as

indicated by falling building approvals especially along parts

of the East and South-Eastern coast. This is part of a general

cooling of the property market.

Short term outlook for four Victorian regions

Riverland and Mallee:

• Business confidence in the region remains subdued due to

a protracted period of drought. While rainfall was reasonable

in April and May of 2009, the key driver of crop yield will be

how much rainfall is received from June onwards.

• Viticulture producers in the region have suffered as a result

of extreme temperatures, although some grape and wine

producers minimised losses through suitable management

practices. They have not been helped by declining world

wine grape prices.

• Above average temperatures has also increased

evaporation along the Murray River and magnified river

water transmission losses. This will reduce water allocations

for irrigators in the region.

• The local housing market continues to weaken as residential

building approvals fall despite the recent extension and

increase in the State-funded first home owner bonus.

72 | Transport Demand Information Atlas for Victoria 2009


• Unemployment in the region has steadily increased since

the economic downturn to 7.2 per cent.

Central Victoria:

• Driven by the first home owners grant, the residential

housing market has been particularly strong in the past

18 months with monthly residential building approvals

reaching over $200 million in March 2009.

• Non-residential building activity has also been strong,

with commercial and public building approvals reaching

$155 million in March 2009. According to ANZ, these

developments are providing a strong stimulus to the region.

• Lamb and wool prices have risen strongly since the beginning

of 2009, improving sentiment in the agricultural sector.

• Unemployment in the region has steadily declined over the

6 months ending April 2009 to 6.3 per cent.

North East Victoria:

• Non-residential building developments by Government and

private businesses are a source of growth for the region,

with a performing arts centre and a $10 million hardware

store planned in Wangaratta. Non-residential building

approvals are at the highest levels since 2004.

• It is expected that tourism activity will be weak due to the

stronger Australian dollar and bushfires earlier in the year

adversely affecting tourist-reliant towns such as Beechworth,

Bright, Myrtleford and Mount Beauty.

• In the agricultural sector, low rainfall reduced crop yields and

pasture production. Milk production collapsed in February

2009, after milk manufacturers announced a cut in prices.

• Despite this, there are reports of some areas in the region

suffering from a lack of skilled labour. The region’s low

unemployment rate of 3.9 per cent supports this, indicating

tightness in the labour market.

South West Victoria:

• Construction activity in the region is slowing as indicated by

falling residential and non-residential building approvals.

• In the agricultural sector, hot and dry weather has browned

off many pastures. Coupled with falling milk prices, many

in the dairy sector have been adversely affected. This has a

flow-on effect as, for example, dairy farmers seek to utilise

existing farm feed reserves, reducing demand for local hay.

• Unemployment in the region has trended upwards in the

six months to April 2009 to 6.8 per cent. According to ANZ,

this has been driven by weaker construction, forestry,

transport and engineering sectors.

South East Victoria:

• Construction activity in the region has slowed significantly,

with building approvals down 15 to 25 per cent compared

with early 2008.

• While good rainfall in the region towards the end of 2008

has helped boost milk production in the area by 11 per cent

in December and January 2009, production has since

collapsed as dairy farmers have been adversely affected by

cuts in milk prices. Some farmers have also suffered as a

result of bushfires earlier in 2009 destroying large areas of

pastoral land and, in some cases, entire stocks of fodder.

• As of April 2009, the unemployment rate in the region was

5.1 per cent, below the State and National average.

ABARE, Australian Commodities,

March Quarter 2009

Updates can be found at: http://www.abare.gov.au/

Grains

World wheat consumption and demand for coarse grain and

oilseeds are projected to increase in line with population growth

over the medium term (to 2013-14). Biofuel production from

corn, sugar and vegetable oils, benefiting from mandated

legislative targets in major producing countries, will also

continue as an important driver.

Wine and viticulture

Following more than a decade of steady growth, the volume

and value of exports has declined significantly, reflecting the

smaller size of the grape harvest, increasing competition in our

major markets from lower-cost wine producing countries such

as Chile, Argentina and South Africa, and the rise in the value of

the Australian dollar. As well, the significant slump in domestic

wine sales and growing level of wine imports reflects the impact

of changing consumer tastes and preferences. A new strategy

will be required to reverse the decline.

Volume 2: Regional Victoria A compendium of statistics and information | 73


Livestock

Australian beef exports are projected to increase strongly over

the medium term, when economic recovery occurs in Japan,

the Republic of Korea and other major markets. Demand

for Australian beef will also benefit as the US enters a herd

rebuilding phase. Live cattle exports are also projected to

increase as a result of strengthened demand from South-East

Asian markets, in particular Indonesia.

Sheep meat demand is expected to remain strong, supported

by the sheer diversity of the global market encompassing the

United States, the European Union, China and the Middle East.

Demand for live sheep exports in major markets will continue

to increase through the medium term supported by increasing

meat consumption and the limited reliability of other live animal

supplying countries, the low occurrence of disease in Australian

sheep, and the consistent quality of Australia’s product.

Wool

Changes in the dairy product mix will be driven by changes

in relative returns from the various manufactured products,

with prices of higher valued products such as cheese expected

to be somewhat stronger than other products.

Challenges for the agricultural sector

The agricultural sector generally faces challenges, including:

• Competition from overseas producers

• A strong Australian dollar (supported by the high prices

of minerals exports), although this has some benefits in

keeping down the costs of fuel, fertiliser, chemicals and

farm equipment imported from overseas

• Trade barriers in food importing countries such as Japan

and Korea

• Low levels in dams serving irrigators

• Competition for labour from other sectors of the economy.

The Australian wool industry continues to contract as the

profitability of producing wool relative to meat worsens.

Falling wool demand attributed to the global economic

downturn, combined with the high price for lamb, has led to

a further reduction in the size of the national flock. Despite

the decline in production of shorn wool, prices are forecast

to rebound when the global economic recovery occurs.

Dairy

Australian milk production is expected to recover only slowly,

with sharply lower farm-gate prices on offer having reduced the

profitability of many farms despite the availability of cheaper

feed and fodder.

The availability of irrigation water will be a major factor affecting

the speed of recovery in the Australian dairy herd and total milk

production. Irrigation water allocations remain a major issue

for many farms particularly in Northern Victoria and southern

New South Wales.

Over the medium term world dairy consumption is projected

to increase relative to production, resulting in improved world

prices for dairy products and some improvement in Australian

farm-gate milk prices. Milk production is forecast to increase.

74 | Transport Demand Information Atlas for Victoria 2009


Volume 2: Regional Victoria A compendium of statistics and information | 75

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