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Projecting Future Unplanned Deforestation for a REDD Feasibility ...

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Baseline Scenario<br />

Analysis of Historic <strong>De<strong>for</strong>estation</strong><br />

Conclusions<br />

Increase of de<strong>for</strong>estation over the historic reference period:<br />

•Increase of annual de<strong>for</strong>estation in all areas<br />

Lower de<strong>for</strong>estation rates in project area:<br />

•Higher de<strong>for</strong>estation rates in the reference area than project area<br />

-> Indicates Frontier <strong>De<strong>for</strong>estation</strong> Configuration<br />

•<strong>De<strong>for</strong>estation</strong> lowest in designated areas (MFR, TNP)<br />

Higher de<strong>for</strong>estation rates along roads:<br />

•Higher de<strong>for</strong>estation inside one km buffer along roads<br />

-> Suggests that planned extension of road network will increase<br />

de<strong>for</strong>estation in the landscape if no <strong>REDD</strong> measures

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