Driverless Vehicles Make Inroads in Military - Velodyne Lidar
Driverless Vehicles Make Inroads in Military - Velodyne Lidar
Driverless Vehicles Make Inroads in Military - Velodyne Lidar
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VOLUME 3 NO.2 • May 2013 • AUVSI • 2700 South Qu<strong>in</strong>cy Street, Suite 400, Arl<strong>in</strong>gton, VA 22206, USA<br />
<strong>Driverless</strong><br />
<strong>Vehicles</strong> <strong>Make</strong><br />
<strong>Inroads</strong> <strong>in</strong> <strong>Military</strong><br />
Inside this issue:<br />
Companies Ready Commercial <strong>Driverless</strong> Cars<br />
The Price of Technology Changes<br />
Insurance Rema<strong>in</strong>s a Hurdle
<strong>Driverless</strong> Car<br />
sUMMiT<br />
11-12 June 2013<br />
Sound Board at MotorCity Hotel • Detroit<br />
<strong>Driverless</strong> Cars <strong>in</strong> 2022…<br />
Mak<strong>in</strong>g the Vision a Reality<br />
RegisteR Now!<br />
auvsi.org/dcs<br />
2 MISSION CRITICAL • May 2013
CONTENTS<br />
VOLUME 3 NO.2 • May 2013<br />
On the Cover<br />
8 <strong>Driverless</strong> Convoys<br />
and Carry<strong>in</strong>g Cargo<br />
Robotics Lighten the Load<br />
4 Essential Components<br />
The Latest News <strong>in</strong> <strong>Driverless</strong> Cars<br />
6 State of the Art<br />
Where the <strong>Driverless</strong> Car<br />
Action is Around the Globe<br />
12 Uncanny Valley<br />
Rules of the Road:<br />
States Vie for <strong>Driverless</strong> Cars<br />
13 Technology Gap<br />
Driv<strong>in</strong>g Down the Cost of Change<br />
On the Cover:<br />
Oshkosh Defense’s TerraMax<br />
technology can convert military<br />
trucks to self-driv<strong>in</strong>g vehicles, one<br />
of several kits on the market that<br />
allow <strong>in</strong>creased automation to<br />
military customers. Photo courtesy<br />
Oshkosh Defense. Page 8.<br />
MISSION CRITICAL • May 2013 1
14 Q & A<br />
Tom Bamonte,<br />
North Texas Tollway Authority<br />
16 Timel<strong>in</strong>e<br />
Federal Programs<br />
Go <strong>Driverless</strong><br />
18 Driv<strong>in</strong>g the Market<br />
Auto Companies Vie for<br />
Unmanned Dom<strong>in</strong>ance<br />
22 Test<strong>in</strong>g, Test<strong>in</strong>g<br />
SAIC and the Michigan<br />
DOT Test Bed Gear Up<br />
27 End Users<br />
Insurance: Is Your <strong>Driverless</strong><br />
Car <strong>in</strong> Good Hands<br />
Advertiser Index<br />
25 Spotlight<br />
Information on the Fleet<br />
Automation Forum<br />
Airborne Law Enforcement Association.....11<br />
www.alea.org<br />
Mission Critical is published four times a year as an official publication of the Association for Unmanned Vehicle Systems International. Contents of the articles are the sole<br />
op<strong>in</strong>ions of the authors and do not necessarily express the policies or op<strong>in</strong>ion of the publisher, editor, AUVSI or any entity of the U.S. government. Materials may not be<br />
reproduced without written permission. All advertis<strong>in</strong>g will be subject to publisher’s approval and advertisers will agree to <strong>in</strong>demnify and relieve publisher of loss or claims<br />
result<strong>in</strong>g from advertis<strong>in</strong>g contents. Annual subscription and back issue/repr<strong>in</strong>t requests may be addressed to AUVSI.<br />
2 MISSION CRITICAL • May 2013
Editorial<br />
Vice President of Communications<br />
and Publications, Editor<br />
Brett Davis<br />
davis@auvsi.org<br />
Manag<strong>in</strong>g Editor<br />
Danielle Lucey<br />
lucey@auvsi.org<br />
Contribut<strong>in</strong>g Writers<br />
Paul Godsmark<br />
Gabriel Sniman<br />
David A. McNamara<br />
Mohammad Poorsartep<br />
Advertis<strong>in</strong>g<br />
Senior Advertis<strong>in</strong>g<br />
and Market<strong>in</strong>g Manager<br />
Lisa Fick<br />
fick@auvsi.org<br />
+1 571 255 7779<br />
A publication of<br />
President and CEO<br />
Michael Toscano<br />
Executive Vice President<br />
Gretchen West<br />
AUVSI Headquarters<br />
2700 South Qu<strong>in</strong>cy Street, Suite 400<br />
Arl<strong>in</strong>gton, VA 22206 USA<br />
+1 703 845 9671<br />
<strong>in</strong>fo@auvsi.org<br />
www.auvsi.org<br />
<strong>Driverless</strong> Cars<br />
Ga<strong>in</strong><strong>in</strong>g Traction<br />
Self-driv<strong>in</strong>g cars is a special topic<br />
for Mission Critical magaz<strong>in</strong>e.<br />
Now <strong>in</strong> its third year of cover<strong>in</strong>g<br />
commercial robotics topics, Mission<br />
Critical’s very first issue tackled the<br />
emerg<strong>in</strong>g field of driverless vehicles.<br />
Now, more than two years after that,<br />
the <strong>in</strong>dustry has seen a slew of commercial<br />
automobile manufacturers pledge<br />
driverless cars <strong>in</strong> the next 10 years.<br />
This magaz<strong>in</strong>e takes a look at where<br />
we are now with driverless vehicles.<br />
Editor Brett Davis dives <strong>in</strong>to the military<br />
world, where the technology got<br />
its start on unmanned ground vehicles.<br />
Many of these technologies have come<br />
a long way s<strong>in</strong>ce their <strong>in</strong>fancy. To read<br />
more on that, see Page 8.<br />
On the opposite end of the spectrum,<br />
Paul Godsmark and Gabriel Sniman<br />
from <strong>Driverless</strong>CarHQ.com surveyed<br />
the commercial landscape of self-driv<strong>in</strong>g<br />
vehicles. Automotive companies<br />
are revv<strong>in</strong>g their eng<strong>in</strong>es, gear<strong>in</strong>g up<br />
to be the first with an autonomous<br />
vehicle on the road. See that story on<br />
Page 18.<br />
In preparation for AUVSI’s Detroitbased<br />
<strong>Driverless</strong> Car Summit <strong>in</strong> June,<br />
this issue discusses two Michigan-centric<br />
projects aimed at further<strong>in</strong>g selfdriv<strong>in</strong>g<br />
cars.<br />
The first is Michigan’s Connected Vehicle<br />
Test Bed, where companies like<br />
SAIC are perform<strong>in</strong>g a large-scale field<br />
test of vehicle-to-vehicle and vehicleto-<strong>in</strong>frastructure<br />
technology so they<br />
may one day be nationally adopted.<br />
The second is the newly formed Fleet<br />
Automation Forum. This group, orig<strong>in</strong>ally<br />
conceptualized with<strong>in</strong> the U.S.<br />
Army, is assess<strong>in</strong>g how driverless vehicles<br />
will affect commercial truck<strong>in</strong>g.<br />
AUVSI and the University of Michigan<br />
are support<strong>in</strong>g this effort that aims<br />
to accelerate technology commercialization.<br />
Editor's Message<br />
Danielle Lucey<br />
Just how will legislators, regulators and<br />
private <strong>in</strong>surers keep up with this <strong>in</strong>creased<br />
energy <strong>in</strong> the self-driv<strong>in</strong>g car<br />
market Mission Critical addresses those<br />
issues throughout its departments.<br />
Uncanny Valley, on Page 12, reviews<br />
the many laws and legislative approaches<br />
states are tak<strong>in</strong>g to ensure<br />
they have a future closely tied to driverless<br />
technology.<br />
On Page 13, we take a look at Southwest<br />
Research Institute, a company that<br />
is focus<strong>in</strong>g on low-cost technology to<br />
enable consumers to one day purchase<br />
driverless vehicles. The company is tak<strong>in</strong>g<br />
lessons it learned from a Navy program<br />
with a similar focus and translat<strong>in</strong>g<br />
that to the commercial market.<br />
Our Q&A on Page 14 is with Tom<br />
Bamonte, general counsel for the<br />
North Texas Tollway Authority. He<br />
has a unique legal perspective on how<br />
cities can prepare for self-driv<strong>in</strong>g cars,<br />
<strong>in</strong>clud<strong>in</strong>g simple changes to basic <strong>in</strong>frastructure<br />
and how to properly manage<br />
data from these vehicles.<br />
Guy Fraker, a technology consultant<br />
and former <strong>in</strong>surance agent, discusses<br />
the difficulties of <strong>in</strong>sur<strong>in</strong>g driverless<br />
cars. How will an <strong>in</strong>dustry used to hav<strong>in</strong>g<br />
lots of crash data set prices for cars<br />
<strong>in</strong>tent on not crash<strong>in</strong>g He expla<strong>in</strong>s<br />
challenges like this one on Page 27.<br />
I hope you enjoy read<strong>in</strong>g all the new<br />
<strong>in</strong>formation <strong>in</strong> this issue. Perhaps the<br />
next time we visit the topic of driverless<br />
cars, there will be a few be<strong>in</strong>g<br />
tested on a roadway near you.<br />
MISSION CRITICAL • May 2013 3
Essential Components<br />
Oxford Builds GPS-Free RobotCar<br />
The University of Oxford’s Department of Eng<strong>in</strong>eer<strong>in</strong>g<br />
Science is roll<strong>in</strong>g out a new self-driv<strong>in</strong>g car concept,<br />
called RobotCar UK that uses an iPad as its user <strong>in</strong>terface.<br />
The project uses a Nissan Leaf with an off-the-shelf<br />
computer <strong>in</strong> the trunk that is connected to cameras and<br />
lasers. The project, which started <strong>in</strong> September 2012,<br />
doesn’t use GPS or 3-D sensors, however, <strong>in</strong>stead rely<strong>in</strong>g<br />
on mathematic probability and mach<strong>in</strong>e learn<strong>in</strong>g techniques<br />
for navigation.<br />
“Even when GPS is available, it does not offer the accuracy<br />
required for robots to make decisions about how<br />
and when to move safely,” says the RobotCar UK website.<br />
“Even if it did, it would say noth<strong>in</strong>g about what<br />
is around the robot, and that has a massive impact on<br />
autonomous decision mak<strong>in</strong>g.”<br />
<strong>Driverless</strong> Cars by 2015 2020 2040<br />
When driverless cars will actually hit the streets is anyone’s<br />
guess, but researchers and auto manufacturers<br />
themselves are project<strong>in</strong>g many possibilities as to when<br />
they will hit the commercial market.<br />
The car company with the most aggressive claim to date<br />
is Audi, which projected at this year’s Consumer Electronics<br />
Show <strong>in</strong> Las Vegas that it will have a fully driverless<br />
vehicle on the road by 2015.<br />
BMW says highly automated vehicles will hit European roadways <strong>in</strong> 2020.<br />
Photo courtesy BMW Group.<br />
The University of Oxford’s RobotCar UK concept doesn’t use 3-D sensors or GPS for navigation.<br />
Photo courtesy the Oxford Mobile Robotics Group.<br />
The Oxford Mobile Robotics Group, a team of 22 researchers<br />
lead by two professors, has built its own navigation<br />
system for 5,000 pounds. The team performs the<br />
navigation, plann<strong>in</strong>g and control algorithms on its own<br />
but ga<strong>in</strong>s technical support and hardware from Nissan,<br />
which is their sponsor. The project is also backed by<br />
the U.K.’s Eng<strong>in</strong>eer<strong>in</strong>g and Physical Sciences Research<br />
Council, Guidance Navigation Ltd. and the Motor Industry<br />
Research Association.<br />
Click this QR code to see a video of RobotCar UK’s<br />
autonomous start through its iPad <strong>in</strong>terface.<br />
“Piloted drive could accompany us from 2015,” said Dr.<br />
Wolfgang Durheimer, from Audi’s management board<br />
on technical development. “We have the system under<br />
control.”<br />
Meanwhile, a February press release by BMW and Cont<strong>in</strong>ental<br />
states they will have highly automated vehicles<br />
by 2020 on European roads. The two have teamed up for<br />
a 2013 through 2014 project to prototype these k<strong>in</strong>ds of<br />
vehicles, with the ultimate goal of accident-free mobility.<br />
The companies will perform tests on German and European<br />
roads with these vehicles until the end of 2014.<br />
The tests will monitor performance at <strong>in</strong>tersections, toll<br />
stations, construction and around national borders.<br />
However, research group IDC put a damper on those<br />
estimates with its March 2013 document “Connected<br />
Vehicle Ecosystems: Drivers (and Barriers) of Adoption.”<br />
Author Sheila Brennan says driverless cars will likely be<br />
adopted by the public closer to 2040 because of multiple<br />
barriers.<br />
“I th<strong>in</strong>k there are a lot of regulators and a lot of privacy<br />
and security issues that need to be overcome prior to<br />
that, a lot of <strong>in</strong>teroperability issues that need to be overcome,”<br />
Brennan says. “And the automotive <strong>in</strong>dustry <strong>in</strong><br />
general moves very slowly <strong>in</strong> many senses.”<br />
4 MISSION CRITICAL • May 2013
Essential<br />
Components<br />
Someday, Will <strong>Driverless</strong><br />
Car Tech Kill Traffic Lights<br />
A University of Missouri-Kansas City professor believes<br />
that one day, software that automates vehicle movement<br />
at <strong>in</strong>tersections could do away with traffic lights.<br />
“The idea is not a driverless car. <strong>Driverless</strong> cars take away<br />
the fun of driv<strong>in</strong>g. The ma<strong>in</strong> objective is to improve traffic<br />
flow <strong>in</strong>side the city and do away with the traffic lights,<br />
because they are expensive to ma<strong>in</strong>ta<strong>in</strong>,” Vijay Kumar<br />
told the University News, UM-CK’s <strong>in</strong>dependent student<br />
newspaper.<br />
Currently, Kumar is study<strong>in</strong>g the “ambiguity effect”<br />
where drivers make decisions despite a lack of <strong>in</strong>formation.<br />
Ambiguous and delayed decisions can result <strong>in</strong> an<br />
accident. However, a number of newer model cars use<br />
software to enable better driver decision mak<strong>in</strong>g through<br />
technologies like lane keep<strong>in</strong>g.<br />
Kumar is zero<strong>in</strong>g <strong>in</strong> on elim<strong>in</strong>at<strong>in</strong>g traffic lights from<br />
<strong>in</strong>tersections or mak<strong>in</strong>g them more effective. To do this,<br />
cars will have to communicate with each other and the<br />
traffic lights so they can <strong>in</strong>telligently direct traffic.<br />
Kumar predicts with limited fund<strong>in</strong>g it would take two<br />
years for such a system to be on the market.<br />
UK Drivers Skittish on <strong>Driverless</strong> Cars<br />
U.K.-based <strong>in</strong>surance firm Be Wiser Insurance found<br />
<strong>in</strong> a poll that more than two-thirds of British motorists<br />
are uncomfortable with the notion of shar<strong>in</strong>g the road<br />
with driverless cars.<br />
Sixty-eight percent of poll takers reported be<strong>in</strong>g uncomfortable<br />
while 32 percent favored it, cit<strong>in</strong>g human<br />
judgment flaws that lead to accidents.<br />
“Reduc<strong>in</strong>g the potential for human error could make<br />
for a safer driv<strong>in</strong>g experience — especially when it<br />
comes to those little bumps and scrapes which occur<br />
when momentary distraction is to blame. A computer<br />
rarely loses concentration,” says Mark Bower-Dyke,<br />
chairman of Be Wiser Insurance.<br />
Concerns among those that said they were uncomfortable<br />
driv<strong>in</strong>g near self-driv<strong>in</strong>g vehicles <strong>in</strong>cluded who<br />
would be responsible <strong>in</strong> an accident and whether driverless<br />
cars could be trusted more than a standard computer.<br />
“Automated park<strong>in</strong>g is already be<strong>in</strong>g hailed as a boon<br />
to both drivers and <strong>in</strong>surers as it reduces the number<br />
of park<strong>in</strong>g related claims,” Bower-Dyke says. “We hope<br />
that driverless cars will be the logical end of safer driv<strong>in</strong>g,<br />
especially for those who don’t like or enjoy driv<strong>in</strong>g<br />
at all.”<br />
Many respondents to the poll also keyed <strong>in</strong> on one gray<br />
area that would exist with driverless car passengers —<br />
the ability to dr<strong>in</strong>k alcohol before gett<strong>in</strong>g <strong>in</strong> the car.<br />
“<strong>Driverless</strong> cars could provide real safety advantages<br />
when there are enough of them on the road,” says<br />
Bower-Dyke. “It’s not all about hav<strong>in</strong>g a robot chauffeur<br />
to drive you back from the pub.”<br />
Advanced Navigation Releases<br />
Triple-Tech Spatial Fog<br />
Australia’s Advanced Navigation has released Spatial<br />
Fog, a spoof-proof enhanced GPS system that can also<br />
operate <strong>in</strong> areas where GPS is weak or nonexistent.<br />
Spatial Fog comb<strong>in</strong>es a GPS receiver with KVH Industries’<br />
1750 <strong>in</strong>ertial measurement unit, allow<strong>in</strong>g<br />
the system to fall back on <strong>in</strong>ertial navigation if GPS<br />
isn’t available. However, the system also uses receiver<br />
autonomous <strong>in</strong>tegrity monitor<strong>in</strong>g (RAIM) to prevent<br />
spoof<strong>in</strong>g, which could be a problem if someone tries to<br />
electronically hijack a self-driv<strong>in</strong>g car.<br />
“RAIM works by analyz<strong>in</strong>g<br />
multiple satellite<br />
signals and develop<strong>in</strong>g<br />
a statistical model<br />
of the observed versus<br />
expected signals,” the<br />
company says. “From<br />
this model it is able to<br />
determ<strong>in</strong>e if there is a<br />
fault with the signals it<br />
is receiv<strong>in</strong>g.”<br />
Comb<strong>in</strong>g all three systems<br />
makes the system<br />
good for safety-conscious<br />
autonomous vehicles,<br />
the company says.<br />
Advanced Navigation’s Spatial Fog.<br />
Photo courtesy the company.<br />
MISSION CRITICAL • May 2013 5
Worldwide<br />
R O A D T R I P<br />
Test<strong>in</strong>g, legislat<strong>in</strong>g and implement<strong>in</strong>g driverless cars has<br />
been <strong>in</strong>creas<strong>in</strong>gly high profile <strong>in</strong> places all around the<br />
world. Here’s a look at a few of the locations that have<br />
ga<strong>in</strong>ed notoriety <strong>in</strong> the self-driv<strong>in</strong>g car and vehicle sector as<br />
of late.<br />
ANN ARBOR, MICH.<br />
The University of<br />
Michigan is host<strong>in</strong>g a<br />
Department of Transportation<br />
pilot program to test vehicleto-vehicle<br />
and vehicle-to-<strong>in</strong>frastructure<br />
<strong>in</strong>tegration <strong>in</strong> preparation for<br />
a possible national decision on<br />
the technology.<br />
California is the latest<br />
state to adopt a bill about<br />
driverless cars, though many<br />
more states are wait<strong>in</strong>g <strong>in</strong> the<br />
w<strong>in</strong>gs to do so. The law was enacted<br />
<strong>in</strong> a public sign<strong>in</strong>g ceremony by<br />
Gov. Jerry Brown and was<br />
attended by Google’s Sergey<br />
Br<strong>in</strong>, who also spoke at the<br />
event <strong>in</strong> September 2012.<br />
SACRAMENTO, CALIF.<br />
Google cont<strong>in</strong>ues<br />
to dom<strong>in</strong>ate driverless car<br />
discussions, with more than<br />
400,000 miles driven to date.<br />
<strong>Driverless</strong>CarHQ.com predicts<br />
the company will top the<br />
1 million mile mark this year.<br />
MOUNTAIN VIEW, CALIF.<br />
WARREN, MICH.<br />
In February, the U.S.<br />
Army’s Tank Automotive<br />
Research, Development and<br />
Eng<strong>in</strong>eer<strong>in</strong>g Center and Lockheed<br />
Mart<strong>in</strong> demonstrated a satellitecontrolled<br />
Squad Mission Support<br />
System platform <strong>in</strong> a unique take<br />
on how autonomous vehicles<br />
could be operated.<br />
Nevada became the<br />
first state to pass driverless<br />
car legislation <strong>in</strong> 2011.<br />
The milestone gave companies the<br />
green light to test the technology<br />
<strong>in</strong> the state. So far, Google,<br />
Cont<strong>in</strong>ental and Audi have<br />
received licenses.<br />
CARSON CITY, NEV.<br />
Florida became the<br />
second state to regulate<br />
driverless cars. The law<br />
requires that humans be ready<br />
to <strong>in</strong>tervene if necessary, and<br />
testers must have $5 million<br />
<strong>in</strong> <strong>in</strong>surance coverage.<br />
TALLAHASSEE, FLA.<br />
6 MISSION CRITICAL • May 2013
STATE OF THE ART<br />
OXFORD, U.K.<br />
University of Oxford<br />
is work<strong>in</strong>g on a driverless<br />
Nissan Leaf that wouldn’t use<br />
GPS or 3-D sensors to function.<br />
The car uses an Oxford-created<br />
computer system to drive and<br />
has an iPad <strong>in</strong>terface<br />
for the driver.<br />
After<br />
a series of road<br />
tra<strong>in</strong> tests, the Safe Road<br />
Tra<strong>in</strong>s for the Environment test<br />
by Ricardo UK on Volvo vehicles<br />
was declared a success. The program<br />
demonstrated a road-tra<strong>in</strong><strong>in</strong>g<br />
concept, where cars follow a<br />
leader vehicle, and it displayed<br />
how the method cuts down<br />
on emissions.<br />
HÄLLERED, SWEDEN<br />
Researchers from the<br />
University of Parma took<br />
part <strong>in</strong> a 2010 project to drive<br />
autonomously from Italy to Ch<strong>in</strong>a.<br />
Speak<strong>in</strong>g at a recent conference,<br />
Dr. Alberto Broggi said the vehicle<br />
sensed us<strong>in</strong>g lidar but had no<br />
<strong>in</strong>tegrated maps.<br />
PARMA, ITALY<br />
M<strong>in</strong><strong>in</strong>g company Rio<br />
T<strong>in</strong>to is us<strong>in</strong>g autonomous<br />
vehicles to work iron ore m<strong>in</strong>es<br />
as part of the company’s M<strong>in</strong>e<br />
of the Future concept.<br />
The company also uses<br />
autonomous tra<strong>in</strong>s.<br />
PILBARA, AUSTRALIA<br />
ECUBLENS, SWITZERLAND<br />
Ecole Polytechnique<br />
of Lausanne is test<strong>in</strong>g<br />
autonomous shuttles that will be<br />
used on campus to transport up to<br />
eight people at a time. The vehicles,<br />
which are made by French<br />
company Induct, can travel up<br />
to 20 kpm.<br />
MISSION CRITICAL • May 2013 7
<strong>Driverless</strong> Convoys<br />
and Carry<strong>in</strong>g Cargo:<br />
Robotics Lighten the Load<br />
By Brett Davis<br />
Automated technology <strong>in</strong> the military arena is proceed<strong>in</strong>g<br />
along a variety of fronts, as several companies<br />
around the world are seek<strong>in</strong>g to lighten the<br />
loads of soldiers or keep them out of logistics convoys.<br />
Lockheed Mart<strong>in</strong> is work<strong>in</strong>g on both fronts. With the<br />
AutoMate Convoy Module, a bolt-on system of hardware<br />
and software that can convert military trucks <strong>in</strong>to<br />
remote-controlled or self-driv<strong>in</strong>g vehicles, it is seek<strong>in</strong>g to<br />
m<strong>in</strong>imize the number of soldiers who need to be present<br />
<strong>in</strong> convoys.<br />
That’s feed<strong>in</strong>g <strong>in</strong>to the U.S. Army’s AMAS program,<br />
which stands for Autonomous Mobility Applique System,<br />
a Jo<strong>in</strong>t Capability Technology Demonstration effort that’s<br />
<strong>in</strong>tended to become a program of record.<br />
Driv<strong>in</strong>g convoys <strong>in</strong> warzones is necessary to resupply soldiers<br />
<strong>in</strong> the field, but it’s a hazardous duty, and convoys<br />
are a favorite victim of the signature weapon of the Iraq<br />
and Afghanistan wars, the roadside bomb, or improvised<br />
explosive device.<br />
“You could conceivably have a very small number of soldiers<br />
devoted to driv<strong>in</strong>g,” says Joe Z<strong>in</strong>ecker, Lockheed<br />
Mart<strong>in</strong>’s director of combat maneuver systems at the Missiles<br />
and Fire Control division. “The system has the capability<br />
to get that down to zero. The lead vehicle could be<br />
unmanned. You could, <strong>in</strong> theory, have no soldiers driv<strong>in</strong>g<br />
it whatsoever,” although he admits that’s a little way off.<br />
The appliqué system that will make up AMAS grew out of<br />
CAST, the Convoy Active Safety Technology system effort<br />
started <strong>in</strong> 2005 by the Jo<strong>in</strong>t Ground Robotics Enterprise<br />
and the Army’s Tank Automotive Research and Development<br />
Eng<strong>in</strong>eer<strong>in</strong>g Center.<br />
That <strong>in</strong> turn grew out of the Autonomous Land Vehicle,<br />
or ALV, a hulk<strong>in</strong>g, 10-foot-tall self-driv<strong>in</strong>g vehicle developed<br />
<strong>in</strong> 1985 by DARPA and what was then Mart<strong>in</strong><br />
Marietta (<strong>in</strong> fact, some of the ALV eng<strong>in</strong>eers work on the<br />
AutoMate Module program today).<br />
By the time CAST wrapped up <strong>in</strong> 2011, it had driven<br />
more than 16,000 miles autonomously with no mishaps<br />
with convoys of as many as five vehicles.<br />
However, the CAST software was “written by eng<strong>in</strong>eers<br />
for eng<strong>in</strong>eers,” Z<strong>in</strong>ecker says, and anyth<strong>in</strong>g headed <strong>in</strong>to<br />
the field needs to be easier to fit on various types of vehicles<br />
and be “much more ma<strong>in</strong>ta<strong>in</strong>able.”<br />
That’s the goal of the appliqué kit for AMAS, which is still<br />
<strong>in</strong> the laboratory at the moment. The first field tests are<br />
scheduled for this summer. The company plans to set up<br />
convoy tests, where vehicles must not only avoid obstacles<br />
but other vehicles attempt<strong>in</strong>g to <strong>in</strong>terfere with them, just<br />
as they would <strong>in</strong> the field.<br />
8 MISSION CRITICAL • May 2013
Self-driv<strong>in</strong>g trucks take to the road<br />
as part of the CAST demonstration.<br />
Photo courtesy Lockheed Mart<strong>in</strong>.<br />
AMAS is <strong>in</strong>tended to be “an autonomy kit coupled with<br />
a by-wire kit that can be fitted to almost any vehicle,” Z<strong>in</strong>ecker<br />
says.<br />
It consists of TV cameras, scanners, radars, lidars and a<br />
laser scanner, along with actuators that can operate the<br />
brakes, steer<strong>in</strong>g column and active safety kit.<br />
“So, basically with the AMAS system, you have an option<br />
of turn<strong>in</strong>g on the active safety kit that gives warn<strong>in</strong>gs to<br />
the driver … [and it] ranges all the way up to full autonomy,”<br />
Z<strong>in</strong>ecker says.<br />
Competition on the Road<br />
Lockheed Mart<strong>in</strong> is far from alone <strong>in</strong> the appliqué robotic<br />
kit space, although it may have been <strong>in</strong> it longer<br />
than many competitors.<br />
TORC Robotics, based <strong>in</strong> Virg<strong>in</strong>ia, markets three levels<br />
of drive-by-wire kits that allow vehicle functions to be<br />
monitored and controlled remotely or even allow the<br />
vehicles to drive autonomously.<br />
Utah-based Kairos Autonomi markets the Pronto4 appliqué<br />
kit that converts vehicles <strong>in</strong>to optionally manned<br />
ones. It recently wrapped up the first phase of contract<br />
work <strong>in</strong>stall<strong>in</strong>g kits to create unmanned target vehicles<br />
for National Guard Bureau test sites across the country.<br />
Switzerland’s Ruag Defence showed a new concept for<br />
robotic vehicle control, VERO, at the IDEX <strong>in</strong>ternational<br />
defense exhibition <strong>in</strong> Abu Dhabi <strong>in</strong> February (for<br />
more on that show, see the April issue of Unmanned<br />
Systems). The company has developed the appliqué kit<br />
for the Swiss army Eagle IV military vehicle, allow<strong>in</strong>g<br />
it to be driven by a human or operated remotely, but it<br />
can be retrofitted to exist<strong>in</strong>g vehicles.<br />
The company is plann<strong>in</strong>g VERO <strong>in</strong> three phases: remote<br />
control via radio l<strong>in</strong>k by the end of 2013; semiautonomous<br />
control <strong>in</strong> 2014, mean<strong>in</strong>g preplanned<br />
courses could be programmed <strong>in</strong>to the system; and autonomous<br />
operation after that.<br />
Oshkosh Defense also has its TerraMax kit, which can<br />
convert military vehicles <strong>in</strong>to unmanned systems. Like<br />
AutoMate, it’s a system of software and sensors that<br />
can connect to the drive-by-wire systems of military<br />
trucks. The company has wrapped up a demonstration<br />
conducted with the Robotics Technology Consortium<br />
and is now upgrad<strong>in</strong>g the system with new comput<strong>in</strong>g<br />
smarts.<br />
It’s also a bit of a celebrity, hav<strong>in</strong>g made an appearance<br />
on a recent episode of the BBC’s car-nut show “Top<br />
Gear,” where it took part <strong>in</strong> a cross-country race aga<strong>in</strong>st<br />
show host James May.<br />
MISSION CRITICAL • May 2013 9
A convoy of TerraMax vehicles.<br />
Photo courtesy Oshkosh Defense.<br />
Robotic Porters<br />
<strong>Military</strong> self-driv<strong>in</strong>g systems aren’t limited to large<br />
trucks. Soldiers and Mar<strong>in</strong>es also need smaller systems<br />
to carry their gear on patrol, and several companies are<br />
work<strong>in</strong>g on systems that can be remotely operated or<br />
drive themselves.<br />
Lockheed Mart<strong>in</strong> has the Squad Mission Support System<br />
(SMSS), an off-the-shelf, all-terra<strong>in</strong> vehicle converted<br />
<strong>in</strong>to a sophisticated robot. The system can be<br />
driven by radio control or <strong>in</strong> autonomous mode.<br />
Four units were tested <strong>in</strong> Afghanistan last year by the<br />
U.S. Army. The soldiers were reluctant to give them<br />
back, Z<strong>in</strong>ecker says. “They really did not want the vehicles<br />
to come home.”<br />
One new wr<strong>in</strong>kle for the SMSS is satellite connectivity,<br />
which the company demonstrated on the vehicle.<br />
That allows it to be controlled almost anywhere <strong>in</strong> the<br />
world with only half a second of latency, adequate for<br />
the generally slow speeds at which the vehicle operates.<br />
Soldiers can use the satellite l<strong>in</strong>k to control the system<br />
remotely to conduct a mission. Then when it’s done,<br />
they can just switch it back to autonomous mode and<br />
have it come home.<br />
The company is now develop<strong>in</strong>g different variants of<br />
the system with an eye toward a program of record <strong>in</strong><br />
2015. The company is also explor<strong>in</strong>g cooperation with<br />
The Squad Mission Support System, an off-road vehicle turned <strong>in</strong>to a robot and capable of very<br />
long distance control via satellite. Photo courtesy Lockheed Mart<strong>in</strong>.<br />
Click this QR code to see a preview of Oshkosh Defense’s TerraMax on “Top Gear.”<br />
10 MISSION CRITICAL • May 2013
Orlando2013_Rotor_ad_LISA_REV_Layout 6 4/3/13 10:49 AM Page 1<br />
the unmanned K-Max cargo helicopter program, which<br />
tackles the unmanned logistics problem from the air.<br />
“We are plann<strong>in</strong>g on do<strong>in</strong>g some cooperative work<br />
with the K-Max guys this summer,” says Adrian Michalicek,<br />
program development manager for autonomous<br />
systems at Lockheed Mart<strong>in</strong> Missiles and Fire<br />
Control. “If you’ve got an SMSS vehicle and you want<br />
to run a reconnaissance mission, you don’t necessarily<br />
want to drive it there.”<br />
• Explore the latest <strong>in</strong><br />
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tactics & techniques.<br />
• Learn from a one-ofa-k<strong>in</strong>d<br />
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l<strong>in</strong>eup dur<strong>in</strong>g preconference<br />
courses &<br />
conference classes.<br />
TORC Robotics’ GUSS, shown here at the 2012 Robotics Rodeo. AUVSI photo.<br />
As with the larger systems, they aren’t alone <strong>in</strong> develop<strong>in</strong>g<br />
this capability.<br />
TORC Robotics has been work<strong>in</strong>g with the Mar<strong>in</strong>e<br />
Corps Warfight<strong>in</strong>g Laboratory and other agencies on<br />
the Ground Unmanned Support Surrogate, or GUSS,<br />
also a commercial off-road vehicle converted to robotics<br />
use. GUSS can carry about 1,800 pounds of cargo,<br />
a bit more than SMSS, and can also be driven via teleoperation<br />
or drive autonomously.<br />
GUSS recently took part <strong>in</strong> the 2012 Robotics Rodeo<br />
at Fort Benn<strong>in</strong>g, Ga., sponsored by TARDEC and the<br />
Jo<strong>in</strong>t Improvised Explosive Device Defeat Organization,<br />
where it took first place <strong>in</strong> the mounted endurance<br />
challenge. The company ran GUSS <strong>in</strong> autonomous<br />
mode <strong>in</strong> that competition, which tested the speed, reliability<br />
and endurance of mach<strong>in</strong>es over rough terra<strong>in</strong>.<br />
Israel Aerospace Industries is develop<strong>in</strong>g Rex, a fourwheeled<br />
robotic porter for <strong>in</strong>fantry. It’s smaller than<br />
GUSS or SMSS, carry<strong>in</strong>g up to 551 pounds of gear.<br />
As all of these programs cont<strong>in</strong>ue, and others jo<strong>in</strong><br />
them, it seems clear that that future of battlefield transportation<br />
will be <strong>in</strong>creas<strong>in</strong>gly unmanned.<br />
Brett Davis is editor of Unmanned Systems.<br />
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MISSION CRITICAL • May 2013 11
Uncanny valley<br />
Rules $ of the Road<br />
States L<strong>in</strong>e Up for <strong>Driverless</strong> Car Dollars<br />
Legislation on driverless cars has the dist<strong>in</strong>ction of<br />
be<strong>in</strong>g both a right of passage for a state <strong>in</strong>terested<br />
<strong>in</strong> allow<strong>in</strong>g self-driv<strong>in</strong>g vehicles on its roads, while<br />
also — as many states have admitted — be<strong>in</strong>g somewhat<br />
unnecessary.<br />
Currently only Nevada, Florida and California have legislation<br />
allow<strong>in</strong>g the test<strong>in</strong>g of driverless cars on their<br />
roads. But, with a large push from Google, many other<br />
states are com<strong>in</strong>g to the fore to stay ahead of the pledge<br />
by many auto manufacturers to have commercial selfdriv<strong>in</strong>g<br />
cars on the road by around 2020.<br />
Other states that have proposed legislation <strong>in</strong>clude Colorado,<br />
Michigan, Wiscons<strong>in</strong> and Oregon, along with<br />
the District of Columbia, to name a few.<br />
California, which passed driverless car legislation <strong>in</strong> Senate<br />
Bill 1298 <strong>in</strong> September 2012, acknowledged <strong>in</strong> its<br />
bill language that driverless cars were not explicitly prohibited<br />
<strong>in</strong> any laws already on the books. In fact, Google<br />
did the lion’s share of its more than 400,000 self-driven<br />
miles <strong>in</strong> the company’s home state prior to the bill’s passage.<br />
The same is true for pend<strong>in</strong>g legislation state Michigan.<br />
As of June 2012, speak<strong>in</strong>g at AUVSI’s <strong>Driverless</strong> Car<br />
Summit 2012 <strong>in</strong> Michigan, the state’s Director of the<br />
Department of Transportation Kirk Steudle believed<br />
that despite a lack of legislation, test<strong>in</strong>g self-driv<strong>in</strong>g cars<br />
was still legal.<br />
“We don’t th<strong>in</strong>k there’s a prohibition right now.”<br />
But, regardless, Michigan Gov. Rick Snyder took up the<br />
issue <strong>in</strong> his State of the State address <strong>in</strong> January 2013,<br />
and State Sen. Mike Kowall <strong>in</strong>troduced legislation on<br />
the issue on 7 Feb.<br />
So if legality is not hold<strong>in</strong>g driverless cars back, what’s<br />
with all these states clamor<strong>in</strong>g over be<strong>in</strong>g the next to<br />
have driverless car bills A simple answer is money, particularly<br />
for Michigan, which prides itself as the United<br />
States’ hub of motor vehicles and relies on auto manufacturer<br />
dollars to stay <strong>in</strong> the state.<br />
Kowall expla<strong>in</strong>ed to The Car Connection that automotive<br />
supplier Cont<strong>in</strong>ental expressed desire to relocate to<br />
Nevada after that state, the first to pass legislation, came<br />
up with a licens<strong>in</strong>g process for self-driv<strong>in</strong>g vehicles.<br />
Though there’s no timel<strong>in</strong>e for Michigan to pass legislation,<br />
nearby states are ramp<strong>in</strong>g up efforts to get a slice of<br />
what is traditionally the Wolver<strong>in</strong>e State’s pie.<br />
State Sen. Fred Risser’s proposed driverless car bill would<br />
mean nearby Wiscons<strong>in</strong>, not Michigan, could be the<br />
first Midwestern state that allows driverless car test<strong>in</strong>g.<br />
His bill was proposed <strong>in</strong> February of this year.<br />
States that don’t have a direct f<strong>in</strong>ancial tie to the automotive<br />
<strong>in</strong>dustry are pitch<strong>in</strong>g driverless car bills to<br />
their constituents for alternative reasons. Oregon State<br />
Rep. Sara Gelser, who <strong>in</strong>troduced House Bill 2428 <strong>in</strong><br />
January, says driverless cars tie <strong>in</strong>to her prior <strong>in</strong>terests<br />
of help<strong>in</strong>g people with disabilities to stay empowered<br />
through mobility. Oregon also currently has laws that<br />
do actually prohibit driverless vehicles.<br />
“Our legislation does require that there is [a] driver <strong>in</strong><br />
the car that is sitt<strong>in</strong>g [<strong>in</strong>] the driver’s seat, who is [a]<br />
licensed driver,” said Gelser <strong>in</strong> an <strong>in</strong>terview with NPR.<br />
“The standards that we are propos<strong>in</strong>g <strong>in</strong> this bill would<br />
require that there be an override feature on the car. So if<br />
there is a problem, that licensed driver that is required to<br />
be <strong>in</strong> the driver’s seat could take control of the vehicle.”<br />
Another major factor <strong>in</strong> pass<strong>in</strong>g legislation is technology<br />
giant Google. Oregon would give the company three<br />
connected and massive states <strong>in</strong> which to take their vehicles<br />
on a road trip. And it seems when it comes to state<br />
legislation that whatever Google says goes.<br />
The one anomaly <strong>in</strong> all the passed, proposed and pend<strong>in</strong>g<br />
legislation comes from Colorado, which shelved its<br />
driverless car bill, sponsored by State Sen. Greg Brophy.<br />
Accord<strong>in</strong>g to a statement by Brophy <strong>in</strong> the Denver Post,<br />
the bill got stuck because of objections by Google. Brophy<br />
said the company had “reservations,” but wouldn’t<br />
comment on further question<strong>in</strong>g by the paper.<br />
12 MISSION CRITICAL • May 2013
Technology Gap<br />
Driv<strong>in</strong>g Down<br />
the Cost of Change<br />
At last year’s <strong>Driverless</strong> Car Summit <strong>in</strong> Detroit,<br />
Google’s Chris Urmson said the company’s selfdriv<strong>in</strong>g<br />
cars have $150,000 of equipment on<br />
board, <strong>in</strong>clud<strong>in</strong>g a $70,000 lidar. And while that price<br />
for a prototype driverless car system created by a company<br />
with nearly $11 billion <strong>in</strong> profits last year isn’t<br />
worth a second glance, it would amount to sticker shock<br />
for the average consumer already dropp<strong>in</strong>g a lot of cash<br />
on a new car.<br />
“Right now a lot of these systems are <strong>in</strong> the prototype<br />
phase, and so the hardware that’s be<strong>in</strong>g purchased is either<br />
a one- or two-off, low-volume [production] price,<br />
so that adds up as you go through any vehicle outfit with<br />
the required sens<strong>in</strong>g technology, comput<strong>in</strong>g technology<br />
and th<strong>in</strong>gs like that,” says Ryan Lamm, manager of research<br />
and development for <strong>in</strong>telligent vehicle systems<br />
at Southwest Research Institute.<br />
Southwest has first-hand experience <strong>in</strong> how to br<strong>in</strong>g<br />
down the cost of sensor technology. The research firm<br />
is the prime contractor <strong>in</strong> the Navy’s Small Unit Mobility<br />
Enhancement Technologies program, which aims<br />
to make unmanned ground vehicle technology capable<br />
yet also affordable. While Southwest Research Institute<br />
doesn’t produce sensor hardware, it worked to develop<br />
low-cost camera algorithms for vehicles that don’t rely<br />
on GPS data. And though this program has a military<br />
focus, Lamm says the concept translates to the driverless<br />
car community.<br />
“It actually translates quite well. ... A lot of the expertise<br />
and a lot of the secret sauce really is the software. And so<br />
the way we’ve developed a lot of the systems is to pretty<br />
much be agnostic of sensors, to not be dependent on<br />
specific types of platforms, to not be dependent on any<br />
specific type of hardware.”<br />
Like any other product, mass production will likely<br />
shr<strong>in</strong>k the cost of driverless car sensors, s<strong>in</strong>ce it will<br />
change how they are manufactured and also <strong>in</strong>crease<br />
competition, which also drives down cost. However,<br />
Lamm says there are keys that will also enable software<br />
prices to rema<strong>in</strong> low, like keep<strong>in</strong>g nonrecurr<strong>in</strong>g costs<br />
down through use of an extensible software framework.<br />
“Our philosophy is always that the software should be<br />
very modular, scalable and extensible so that you don’t<br />
The SUMET EV-1 vehicle, which can<br />
navigate autonomously <strong>in</strong> harsh terra<strong>in</strong>.<br />
Photo courtesy Southwest Research Institute.<br />
have to redo a lot of software when you want to add<br />
additional levels of autonomy or make changes to your<br />
hardware,” he says.<br />
Through this approach to mak<strong>in</strong>g autonomy software,<br />
the cost of updates is “essentially free” after you’ve developed<br />
the <strong>in</strong>itial framework, says Lamm.<br />
However, Southwest Research Institute isn’t a for-profit<br />
corporation try<strong>in</strong>g to sell shr<strong>in</strong>k-wrapped autonomy<br />
software. Many companies do license their software for<br />
royalties, just like how personal computer users pay for<br />
add<strong>in</strong>g software to their systems. A model like this could<br />
mean that the overall cost of go<strong>in</strong>g driverless would be<br />
higher.<br />
Modular, scalable software development also allows<br />
companies to keep up with Moore’s Law — the concept<br />
that the rate of comput<strong>in</strong>g power change over short time<br />
<strong>in</strong>tervals is exponential.<br />
“One of the key goals of all the work that we’ve done at<br />
[Southwest Research Institute], <strong>in</strong>clud<strong>in</strong>g some of the<br />
<strong>in</strong>ternally funded work that we’ve done, is to look at<br />
what’s possible to elim<strong>in</strong>ate dependence on expensive,<br />
vendor-proprietary solutions,” says Lamm. “We don’t<br />
build our systems around specific types of vehicles and<br />
what have you. By be<strong>in</strong>g extensible, what that does is it<br />
effectively takes the software cost factor, for slight modification<br />
or enhancements, out of the equation. So really<br />
then what you’re dependent upon <strong>in</strong> the end is the cost<br />
of the hardware.”<br />
The ultimate driver of price, however, is still the consumer.<br />
“What we’ve seen <strong>in</strong> the auto market is safety is a<br />
difficult sell,” says Lamm. “If you’re go<strong>in</strong>g to buy a new<br />
car, if you have the option for an enterta<strong>in</strong>ment package<br />
versus a special additional safety system, it’s likely that<br />
the end consumer will choose the enterta<strong>in</strong>ment package<br />
over the safety system. … This is a feature that’s go<strong>in</strong>g<br />
to cost several thousand dollars, possibly, and is the<br />
public will<strong>in</strong>g to pay that the next time they go out and<br />
buy their next car Or is the convenience, the mobility<br />
aspect of be<strong>in</strong>g able to be distracted while you’re sitt<strong>in</strong>g<br />
<strong>in</strong> your vehicle, is that worth that cost to you It’ll be<br />
<strong>in</strong>terest<strong>in</strong>g to see how the market evolves.”<br />
MISSION CRITICAL • May 2013 13
Q&A: Tom Bamonte<br />
Tom Bamonte serves as the general counsel for the North Texas Tollway Authority. Over<br />
the past five years he’s written articles and made presentations to legal and transportation<br />
<strong>in</strong>dustry groups on driverless and driver-assisted technology. He ma<strong>in</strong>ta<strong>in</strong>s a Twitter site<br />
devoted to the technology (@TomBamonte) and is a contributor to <strong>Driverless</strong> Car HQ.<br />
Q: What are the major legal hurdles you see<br />
on the horizon for self-driv<strong>in</strong>g car technology<br />
A: I’m actually an optimist <strong>in</strong> this area and am confident<br />
that the legal system will be capable of handl<strong>in</strong>g liability<br />
issues aris<strong>in</strong>g from this technology, just has it with all<br />
sorts of new technologies over the past century.<br />
There is a risk of overregulation where folks, primarily<br />
the federal government, may prematurely come <strong>in</strong> and<br />
attempt to occupy the field and slow the rapid pace of<br />
<strong>in</strong>novation <strong>in</strong> this area. But overall, I’m optimistic that<br />
our legal system can handle this technology without any<br />
significant reconfiguration or major changes.<br />
Q: How do you th<strong>in</strong>k the issue of privacy will<br />
come to play <strong>in</strong> connected vehicle and connected<br />
<strong>in</strong>frastructure debates<br />
A: We <strong>in</strong> the toll <strong>in</strong>dustry have a lot of experience deal<strong>in</strong>g<br />
with highway users and privacy. What we’ve learned<br />
is this: Users are very concerned about hav<strong>in</strong>g data about<br />
their <strong>in</strong>dividual travel patterns shared. We don’t get a lot<br />
of resistance, however, to us harvest<strong>in</strong>g data from travel<br />
patterns as a whole to improve safety, traffic management,<br />
etc. As long as connected vehicle technology is<br />
used for general data harvest<strong>in</strong>g, as opposed to track<strong>in</strong>g<br />
<strong>in</strong>dividual drivers, we’ve set a good example <strong>in</strong> the toll<br />
<strong>in</strong>dustry of how to f<strong>in</strong>d an acceptable balance.<br />
Q: In what ways do you imag<strong>in</strong>e cities chang<strong>in</strong>g<br />
once driverless cars become a ubiquitous<br />
technology<br />
A: There’s been some work <strong>in</strong> this area suggest<strong>in</strong>g that<br />
driverless vehicle technology will promote sprawl. I th<strong>in</strong>k<br />
the opposite may be true. More efficient use of exist<strong>in</strong>g<br />
highway space, which is what this technology offers, allows<br />
cities to have more density around their exist<strong>in</strong>g<br />
highway networks. What that means is that if you could<br />
double, triple, even quadruple the carry<strong>in</strong>g capacity of exist<strong>in</strong>g<br />
streets, and especially expressways, you could have<br />
denser retail and residential development around our exist<strong>in</strong>g<br />
highway system. So I see this technology as a way to<br />
densify urban development, as opposed to it be<strong>in</strong>g someth<strong>in</strong>g<br />
that will further promote sprawl.<br />
Q: Many states, with vary<strong>in</strong>g transportation<br />
needs and population densities, are look<strong>in</strong>g<br />
<strong>in</strong>to pass<strong>in</strong>g driverless car legislation. Do you<br />
have an op<strong>in</strong>ion on how different regions with<br />
different densities should take these types of<br />
factors <strong>in</strong>to account when writ<strong>in</strong>g driverless<br />
car legislation<br />
A: I don’t th<strong>in</strong>k the law needs to reflect the different levels<br />
of density and urban development <strong>in</strong> our states. We’re<br />
early enough <strong>in</strong> the development curve that just gett<strong>in</strong>g<br />
vehicles out there to be tested, and have the highway<br />
authorities and cities and states work<strong>in</strong>g <strong>in</strong> this area, is<br />
what we need. We’re all go<strong>in</strong>g to figure it out together.<br />
At this po<strong>in</strong>t I th<strong>in</strong>k it’d be premature to have a different<br />
driverless vehicle law for, say, Montana or Wyom<strong>in</strong>g<br />
versus Connecticut or another densely populated state.<br />
Q: What immediate benefits do you foresee<br />
<strong>in</strong> creat<strong>in</strong>g the proper <strong>in</strong>frastructure for selfdriv<strong>in</strong>g<br />
or connected vehicles<br />
A: There are opportunities to facilitate the deployment<br />
of driverless and connected vehicle technologies by selected<br />
<strong>in</strong>frastructure improvements. On expressways,<br />
for example, could the road communicate useful <strong>in</strong>formation<br />
to vehicles <strong>in</strong> such a way that we could have<br />
driverless vehicle lanes that provide guaranteed travel<br />
times from po<strong>in</strong>t to po<strong>in</strong>t<br />
On the safety side, there may be ways for the <strong>in</strong>frastructure<br />
to talk to vehicles to disable cars that are go<strong>in</strong>g <strong>in</strong><br />
a wrong-way direction. Wrong-way vehicles cause a lot<br />
of damage, a lot of accidents, and there could be a way<br />
14 MISSION CRITICAL • May 2013
Q & A<br />
for the <strong>in</strong>frastructure to communicate to the wrongway<br />
vehicles and pull them to the shoulder until law<br />
enforcement can arrive. We could save hundreds of<br />
lives each year.<br />
Q: Infrastructure changes are often costly. Do<br />
you see the cost benefit as worthwhile versus<br />
implement<strong>in</strong>g changes only to a vehicle’s onboard<br />
technology<br />
A: I th<strong>in</strong>k it’s premature to willy-nilly <strong>in</strong>vest <strong>in</strong> driverless<br />
vehicle technology <strong>in</strong>frastructure. Frankly, most of<br />
it hasn’t been <strong>in</strong>vented yet. The challenge that we face as<br />
highway authorities is, at some po<strong>in</strong>t, as the driverless vehicle<br />
technology gets more sophisticated, we’re go<strong>in</strong>g to<br />
need to have some pretty fundamental<br />
discussions about<br />
whether we want to <strong>in</strong>crease<br />
roadway capacity through <strong>in</strong>vest<strong>in</strong>g<br />
<strong>in</strong> electronic platforms<br />
versus pour<strong>in</strong>g more concrete<br />
and expand<strong>in</strong>g our physical<br />
facilities.<br />
I th<strong>in</strong>k that what makes sense<br />
from a cost-benefit analysis<br />
now is for cities and highway<br />
authorities to partner up with<br />
the auto manufacturers; other<br />
<strong>in</strong>novators, such as Google <strong>in</strong><br />
this area; and local research<br />
<strong>in</strong>stitutions to figure out exactly<br />
what does a highway<br />
of the future look like. That<br />
future highway is probably<br />
based on wireless communications and <strong>in</strong>volves a fiberoptic<br />
backbone, both of which we have already <strong>in</strong> some<br />
form. There’s probably a generation of sensors that allow<br />
communications between vehicles and <strong>in</strong>frastructure.<br />
Aga<strong>in</strong>, a lot of it rema<strong>in</strong>s to be <strong>in</strong>vented, so what we<br />
need to do now is <strong>in</strong>vest <strong>in</strong> that research and work together<br />
on some vision<strong>in</strong>g and hopefully some solutions.<br />
Q: What are examples of simple <strong>in</strong>frastructure<br />
solutions cities could implement that better<br />
enable driverless cars<br />
A: Here’s someth<strong>in</strong>g that we’re already th<strong>in</strong>k<strong>in</strong>g about:<br />
Do you pa<strong>in</strong>t your roadways differently so that sensor-equipped<br />
vehicles can read the roadway more effectively<br />
Exist<strong>in</strong>g vehicles now are com<strong>in</strong>g equipped<br />
with lane-chang<strong>in</strong>g technologies, where the vehicle<br />
alerts you if you’re steer<strong>in</strong>g out of your lane. Could<br />
‘We’re <strong>in</strong> the equivalent of the early<br />
1900s. They didn’t wait back then<br />
for the <strong>in</strong>terstate highway system to<br />
deploy the Model T. They put the<br />
Model T out there on the dirt roads,<br />
and when it ra<strong>in</strong>ed the horse did<br />
better. Yet, it was the release of new<br />
vehicular technology that prompted<br />
the development of paved roads<br />
and ultimately the <strong>in</strong>terstates. A similar<br />
process is happen<strong>in</strong>g now.’<br />
we enhance that technology just through better strip<strong>in</strong>g<br />
Are there ways to make vehicles, guardrails and<br />
other highway features visually more resonant to lidar,<br />
<strong>in</strong>frared and photo sensors One of the th<strong>in</strong>gs we can<br />
and should be do<strong>in</strong>g right now is consider<strong>in</strong>g how do<br />
we remake the look of our roadways us<strong>in</strong>g exist<strong>in</strong>g elements<br />
so that driverless and connected vehicles can<br />
operate more effectively and safely.<br />
Beyond that, we’re all wait<strong>in</strong>g on the federal government<br />
to move on the 5.9-gigahertz wireless spectrum.<br />
If we f<strong>in</strong>ally get that as an established standard, we can<br />
talk about develop<strong>in</strong>g sensors that broadcast road condition<br />
<strong>in</strong>formation and upcom<strong>in</strong>g traffic <strong>in</strong>formation and<br />
stoplight technology that alerts vehicles to another vehicle<br />
that’s go<strong>in</strong>g to run a light.<br />
Those k<strong>in</strong>d <strong>in</strong>vestments could<br />
be good ones <strong>in</strong> the relative<br />
near term.<br />
Q: How can cities better<br />
prepare themselves for<br />
driverless cars that could<br />
soon be com<strong>in</strong>g to their<br />
roads<br />
A: At this po<strong>in</strong>t what’s needed<br />
is for folks to identify the<br />
upsides and downsides of<br />
the technology and use local,<br />
regional, state and federal<br />
resources to try to figure out<br />
ways to facilitate the deployment<br />
of autonomous and<br />
connected vehicle technology.<br />
We’re <strong>in</strong> the equivalent of the early 1900s. They didn’t<br />
wait back then for the <strong>in</strong>terstate highway system to deploy<br />
the Model T. They put the Model T out there on<br />
the dirt roads, and when it ra<strong>in</strong>ed the horse did better.<br />
Yet, it was the release of new vehicular technology that<br />
prompted the development of paved roads and ultimately<br />
the <strong>in</strong>terstates. A similar process is happen<strong>in</strong>g<br />
now. Google and other <strong>in</strong>novators are go<strong>in</strong>g to be putt<strong>in</strong>g<br />
the driverless vehicles out there on “dumb” 20th<br />
century <strong>in</strong>frastructure. It’s go<strong>in</strong>g to take a while for the<br />
<strong>in</strong>frastructure to catch up with “smart” cars, just as it<br />
took a while for the <strong>in</strong>terstate highway system to catch<br />
up with the descendents of the Model T. That’s where I<br />
see us go<strong>in</strong>g. The key question is what’s the <strong>in</strong>frastructure<br />
platform that will make the onboard driverless/<br />
connected vehicle technology work more effectively<br />
and more safely<br />
MISSION CRITICAL • May 2013 15
The last 30 years of driverless car advances have often<br />
been propelled by federal projects that advanced<br />
the state of the art. Here’s a look at the stages of<br />
projects both <strong>in</strong> the United States and abroad that have<br />
focused on self-driv<strong>in</strong>g technology.<br />
1994 – The Prometheus Project<br />
ga<strong>in</strong>ed ground when two robotic<br />
vehicles drove at speeds up to 130<br />
kph for more than 1,000 kilometers<br />
<strong>in</strong> Paris on a highway.<br />
1996 – European CHAUFFEUR project<br />
beg<strong>in</strong>s, focused on “electronic towbar”<br />
operations to enable platoon<strong>in</strong>g of trucks.<br />
1987 – Pan-European research and<br />
development organization EUREKA<br />
<strong>in</strong>troduced the Prometheus Project <strong>in</strong><br />
1987, a large-scale driverless car<br />
development program.<br />
1996 – Japan’s M<strong>in</strong>istry<br />
of Land, Infrastructure,<br />
Transport and Tourism<br />
demonstrates fully automated<br />
vehicles on public<br />
roads.<br />
2004 – The first DARPA<br />
Grand Challenge is held<br />
<strong>in</strong> the Mojave Desert. No<br />
team f<strong>in</strong>ished the event.<br />
2003 – California DOT funds<br />
UC-Berkeley PATH program<br />
to develop and assess truck<br />
platoon<strong>in</strong>g technologies.<br />
1994 – The National Automated<br />
Highway System Consortium is<br />
set up to carry out the automated<br />
highway demonstration called for <strong>in</strong><br />
the 1991 ISTEA bill.<br />
1997 –The NAHSC hosts the Automated<br />
Highway Systems demonstration <strong>in</strong> San Diego,<br />
where thousands of participants were given<br />
rides <strong>in</strong> automated cars, trucks and buses.<br />
16 MISSION CRITICAL • May 2013
TIMELINE<br />
2005 – DARPA reconvened for a new<br />
Grand Challenge, carry<strong>in</strong>g over the<br />
prize money from the orig<strong>in</strong>al event.<br />
This time all but one competitor completed<br />
the race.<br />
2009 – German KONVOI project, begun <strong>in</strong><br />
2005, completes test<strong>in</strong>g of truck platoons on<br />
public roads.<br />
2009 – The SARTRE (Safe Road Tra<strong>in</strong>s for<br />
the Environment) project had the dual goals<br />
of enabl<strong>in</strong>g driverless road tra<strong>in</strong><strong>in</strong>g and also<br />
cutt<strong>in</strong>g down on environmental effluence from<br />
automobiles through reduced congestion.<br />
2013 – Japanese<br />
Energy ITS project<br />
holds major capability<br />
demonstration.<br />
2008 – Japan’s M<strong>in</strong>istry<br />
of Economy, Trade,<br />
and Industry beg<strong>in</strong>s the<br />
Energy ITS project to<br />
reduce emissions via<br />
truck platoon<strong>in</strong>g.<br />
2012 – The National Highway Traffic Safety<br />
Adm<strong>in</strong>istration began the largest ever test of<br />
connected vehicle technology.<br />
2007 – DARPA’s Urban Challenge followed its<br />
more rural counterparts with a more suburban<br />
scenario track at George Air Force Base. Six<br />
teams successfully completed the mission.<br />
2012 – After complet<strong>in</strong>g public<br />
road tests earlier <strong>in</strong> the year,<br />
SARTRE successfully wrapped<br />
up <strong>in</strong> mid-November.<br />
MISSION CRITICAL • May 2013 17
DRIVING THE MARKET<br />
Auto Companies Vie for<br />
Unmanned Dom<strong>in</strong>ance<br />
By Paul Godsmark and Gabriel Sniman<br />
<strong>Driverless</strong> Car HQ projects that Google will hit the million-mile<br />
mark with its driverless cars this year. Photo courtesy Google.<br />
Editor’s note: The follow<strong>in</strong>g report on the commercial driverless<br />
car <strong>in</strong>dustry was contributed by the writers of <strong>Driverless</strong><br />
Car HQ, an Australia-based website dedicated to driverless<br />
car news coverage. All op<strong>in</strong>ions expressed belong to<br />
<strong>Driverless</strong> Car HQ.<br />
Just a couple of years ago, if you were to tell someone<br />
that fully autonomous cars could be on the<br />
road by 2020, you would have been laughed at.<br />
A few years back companies like GM, BMW and Mercedes<br />
were clearly on a slow but steady course toward the<br />
ultimate goal of unmanned driv<strong>in</strong>g. Ford released selfpark<strong>in</strong>g<br />
technology for the masses and other improvements<br />
steadily found their way <strong>in</strong>to the ecosystem, but<br />
no one was even talk<strong>in</strong>g openly about autonomous technology<br />
as a th<strong>in</strong>g for the immediate future. Universities<br />
and Google seemed to be simply gett<strong>in</strong>g on with their<br />
development programs, with the <strong>in</strong>dication be<strong>in</strong>g that<br />
consumers would still need to wait decades to see this<br />
technology become road-bound. Only GM had dared to<br />
suggest, with deliberately vague term<strong>in</strong>ology, that consumers<br />
might see this technology <strong>in</strong> the 2020s.<br />
Fast forward a couple of years and the latest competition<br />
seems to be about who will be first with fully autonomous<br />
systems. The race is hot and grow<strong>in</strong>g hotter still.<br />
In 2012, GM, Volvo, Lexus, Nissan and BMW/Cont<strong>in</strong>ental<br />
<strong>in</strong>dicated that by around 2020 they will have autonomous<br />
technology <strong>in</strong> their vehicles. Mercedes-Benz<br />
has emphatically stated that it will be first and has plans<br />
to release a semiautonomous vehicle <strong>in</strong> the latter part of<br />
2013. Volvo plans to do it by 2014. Google has stated<br />
openly and repeatedly that its technology could be <strong>in</strong><br />
public hands as soon as 2017. Do planners and politicians,<br />
bus<strong>in</strong>esses and the public have any idea quite what<br />
this means and how to use the next four years to prepare<br />
The Current State of Play<br />
Three companies have now been licensed by Nevada,<br />
the first state to <strong>in</strong>troduce regulations. Google received<br />
the first <strong>in</strong>f<strong>in</strong>ity license plate “001” from Nevada, with<br />
Cont<strong>in</strong>ental follow<strong>in</strong>g with “007.” Follow<strong>in</strong>g this, Audi<br />
became the first automaker to ga<strong>in</strong> an <strong>in</strong>f<strong>in</strong>ity plate.<br />
The race certa<strong>in</strong>ly seems to be heat<strong>in</strong>g up. Michigan has<br />
made it very clear that it now wants autonomous vehicle<br />
laws, thus follow<strong>in</strong>g Nevada, Florida, California and impend<strong>in</strong>g<br />
legislation <strong>in</strong> Texas.<br />
The North American automakers have traditionally seen<br />
Michigan as the center for automotive development.<br />
Yet, times are chang<strong>in</strong>g. Nissan has challenged the status<br />
quo by mov<strong>in</strong>g its autonomous research center to Silicon<br />
Valley <strong>in</strong> California, because that is where the artificial<br />
<strong>in</strong>telligence expertise key to this technology located.<br />
If Google truly is ahead because of its AI expertise, then<br />
this makes sense. Improv<strong>in</strong>g cars is <strong>in</strong>creas<strong>in</strong>gly becom<strong>in</strong>g<br />
a software problem, rather than hardware. Where<br />
else but Silicon Valley<br />
But, despite all this, the automakers still seem <strong>in</strong>tent on<br />
follow<strong>in</strong>g their 130-year-old, tried-and-true bus<strong>in</strong>ess<br />
18 MISSION CRITICAL • May 2013
model of <strong>in</strong>cremental improvements, currently<br />
mov<strong>in</strong>g to semiautonomous technology with<br />
plans to, at some po<strong>in</strong>t, offer full autonomy if<br />
people really want it. Many automakers still <strong>in</strong>sist<br />
that the goal is not unmanned driv<strong>in</strong>g, but<br />
assisted driv<strong>in</strong>g that relieves the pressure from<br />
humans when they need it. But, with statistics<br />
show<strong>in</strong>g that young people are ga<strong>in</strong><strong>in</strong>g their licenses<br />
at an <strong>in</strong>creas<strong>in</strong>gly older age and less and<br />
less are choos<strong>in</strong>g to own a car, it seems that driv<strong>in</strong>g<br />
has become an irritat<strong>in</strong>g distraction for many.<br />
For some, it takes away<br />
valuable time from social<br />
media and Internet<br />
brows<strong>in</strong>g <strong>in</strong> general —<br />
the grow<strong>in</strong>g addiction of<br />
this second decade of the<br />
21st century.<br />
Google Dom<strong>in</strong>ation<br />
So, is Google ahead of<br />
the automakers Through<br />
<strong>Driverless</strong> Car HQ’s own<br />
research, mostly assisted<br />
by Google’s own search<br />
eng<strong>in</strong>e, we have counted<br />
28 California-plated<br />
self-driv<strong>in</strong>g cars, <strong>in</strong>clud<strong>in</strong>g<br />
eight Toyota Prius<br />
vehicles and 22 Lexus<br />
RX450hs, <strong>in</strong> addition to several <strong>in</strong> Nevada. So<br />
common are they that many commuters around<br />
the Bay Area have <strong>in</strong>formed <strong>Driverless</strong> Car HQ<br />
reporters that they see the Google driverless cars<br />
on a weekly basis.<br />
In August Google announced on its official<br />
blog that its vehicles had completed more than<br />
300,000 miles on public roads. In September<br />
Google had completed more than 50,000<br />
miles consecutively without any safety critical<br />
human <strong>in</strong>tervention. Now, with 30 vehicles on<br />
the road and a fleet that is rapidly expand<strong>in</strong>g,<br />
the quantity of miles driven is set to balloon.<br />
<strong>Driverless</strong> Car HQ expects Google to reach the<br />
magic million-mile figure at some po<strong>in</strong>t around<br />
mid 2013. This number is significant, given the<br />
claim of Stanford’s Bryant Walker Smith that<br />
Google would need 727,000 miles without human<br />
<strong>in</strong>tervention to demonstrate that there is<br />
99 percent confidence that their vehicle will be<br />
Automakers have yet to publicly demonstrate the level of autonomy shown <strong>in</strong> DARPA’s 2007<br />
Urban Challenge. Photo courtesy DARPA.<br />
safer than a human be<strong>in</strong>g. None of the automakers<br />
have released figures on miles tested on<br />
public roads, although Audi and Cont<strong>in</strong>ental<br />
needed to achieve at least 10,000 miles to satisfy<br />
Nevada’s licens<strong>in</strong>g requirements.<br />
Bridg<strong>in</strong>g Technology Gaps<br />
<strong>Lidar</strong> seems to be Google’s silver bullet <strong>in</strong> achiev<strong>in</strong>g<br />
these advances so quickly. Many observers see<br />
lidar as the gold-standard technology if you want<br />
to achieve as close as possible<br />
to 100 percent confidence<br />
of object recognition.<br />
Of the automakers,<br />
<strong>Driverless</strong> Car HQ has<br />
seen <strong>Velodyne</strong>’s sp<strong>in</strong>n<strong>in</strong>g<br />
lidar on GM and Toyota<br />
vehicles (for more <strong>in</strong>formation,<br />
see Page 16 of<br />
the w<strong>in</strong>ter 2012 Mission<br />
Critical: Sensors issue).<br />
Audi and Cont<strong>in</strong>ental are<br />
likely us<strong>in</strong>g German company<br />
Ibeo’s much smaller<br />
lidar units or similar sensors.<br />
There have been some impressive<br />
results with the<br />
vision-based systems from<br />
Mercedes and BMW, but<br />
it is clear that the technical gap to fully autonomous<br />
driv<strong>in</strong>g cannot currently be bridged us<strong>in</strong>g<br />
vision alone. There may well be breakthroughs <strong>in</strong><br />
this area <strong>in</strong> the next few years, but at the moment<br />
anyone that is serious about fully autonomous<br />
functionality has to be us<strong>in</strong>g a lidar-based system.<br />
In many ways the public progress announced by<br />
the automakers has been impressive, with selfpark<strong>in</strong>g<br />
Audis and Toyotas fitted with <strong>in</strong>telligent<br />
transportation system technology travel<strong>in</strong>g<br />
autonomously around the company’s test track.<br />
Mercedes, Volvo and BMW are all on the cusp of<br />
releas<strong>in</strong>g semiautonomous technology which will<br />
handle a high proportion of the driv<strong>in</strong>g workload<br />
<strong>in</strong> certa<strong>in</strong> prescribed driv<strong>in</strong>g environments,<br />
either at low speed when congested or at high<br />
speed on freeways.<br />
But, and it is a big but, the automakers have not<br />
demonstrated anyth<strong>in</strong>g publicly that approaches<br />
MISSION CRITICAL • May 2013 19
Mercedes-Benz vehicle-to-vehicle LED collision warn<strong>in</strong>g system. Many<br />
commercial car companies have been debut<strong>in</strong>g driver-assist technology <strong>in</strong><br />
a ramp up to eventual driverless cars. Photo courtesy Mercedes-Benz.<br />
the level of autonomy shown by the entrants to the<br />
DARPA Urban Challenge of 2007. All successful entrants<br />
to the DARPA challenges used lidar-based systems,<br />
and many of those eng<strong>in</strong>eers have moved onto<br />
work<strong>in</strong>g with Google and the automakers. It could be<br />
that the automakers are significantly more advanced<br />
than they have publicly declared, but if that is the case<br />
then why let Google undercut the date at which they<br />
can provide full autonomy<br />
Google has been talk<strong>in</strong>g about retrofitt<strong>in</strong>g driverless car<br />
technology onto exist<strong>in</strong>g vehicles. A draft of the proposed<br />
autonomous vehicle bill for the District of Columbia<br />
refers to retrofitt<strong>in</strong>g vehicles manufactured <strong>in</strong><br />
2009 or later.<br />
Motivat<strong>in</strong>g the Consumer<br />
The driverless car community has heard the discussions<br />
about major, show-stopp<strong>in</strong>g obstacles, such as liability,<br />
legal, union resistance, unwill<strong>in</strong>gness to hand over control<br />
to a robot, cybersecurity, etc. But perhaps the tipp<strong>in</strong>g<br />
po<strong>in</strong>t will be when an average person can save a<br />
significant portion of their salary by not own<strong>in</strong>g a car.<br />
Furthermore, the ma<strong>in</strong> motivator for self-driv<strong>in</strong>g cars<br />
will be the millions of lives saved by this technology.<br />
Human error is a factor <strong>in</strong> 93 percent of the approximate<br />
1.2 million road fatalities that occur worldwide<br />
every year.<br />
There are massive downsides too — taxi drivers and<br />
freight truckers may soon be out of a job. However,<br />
with every great <strong>in</strong>dustrial and technological revolution,<br />
there is turmoil and employment displacement. <strong>Driverless</strong><br />
Car HQ anticipates, however, that many of the people<br />
who are displaced will move <strong>in</strong>to the new <strong>in</strong>dustries<br />
created by this technology. For example, someone will<br />
need to build, ma<strong>in</strong>ta<strong>in</strong> and manage all those driverless<br />
delivery bots. And although this may be a disruptive<br />
technology, millions of lives will be saved and countless<br />
more <strong>in</strong>juries and accidents avoided. For us at <strong>Driverless</strong><br />
Car HQ, it can’t come soon enough.<br />
Paul Godsmark is a highway safety expert who now consults<br />
on self-driv<strong>in</strong>g car issues for regional governments. He<br />
and Gabriel Sniman are both part of the writ<strong>in</strong>g team at<br />
<strong>Driverless</strong>CarHQ. To visit the website, go to www.driverlesscarhq.com<br />
or contact Editor Matt Newton at contact@<br />
driverlesscarhq.com.<br />
20 MISSION CRITICAL • May 2013
THE ECONOMIC IMPACT<br />
OF UNMANNED AIRCRAFT SYSTEMS INTEGRATION IN THE UNITED STATES<br />
The Federal Aviation Adm<strong>in</strong>istration currently has<br />
heavy restrictions on unmanned aircraft fly<strong>in</strong>g <strong>in</strong> the<br />
nation’s airspace. In a recently released economic report,<br />
AUVSI explores the economic implications to<br />
the United States once these restrictions are lifted.<br />
Congress has set a 2015 September 30 deadl<strong>in</strong>e for<br />
this <strong>in</strong>tegration.<br />
Bottom l<strong>in</strong>e, a multibillion commercial market will<br />
quickly emerge <strong>in</strong> the United States with applications<br />
rang<strong>in</strong>g from precision agriculture to precision taco<br />
delivery, creat<strong>in</strong>g more than 100,000 jobs by 2025<br />
just <strong>in</strong> manufactur<strong>in</strong>g for these new products.<br />
WHY UAS<br />
In the most basic sense, UAS allow for similar capabilities<br />
of manned aircraft except without the added<br />
weight and size of the pilot and related pilot protection<br />
equipment. In the report, AUVSI focused on markets<br />
that have exist<strong>in</strong>g data (agriculture and public safety)<br />
and made projections. However, when it comes to new<br />
applications, soon the sky will no longer be the limit.<br />
LEGISLATIVE BARRIERS<br />
Though the FAA will f<strong>in</strong>d safe, effective ways to <strong>in</strong>tegrate<br />
UAS <strong>in</strong> the nation’s airspace, lift<strong>in</strong>g what is the<br />
only current hurdle to mass commercial adoption, new<br />
legislation is under development that will may h<strong>in</strong>der<br />
commercial adoption of UAS. Michael Toscano, president<br />
and CEO of AUVSI, recently spoke to US Congress<br />
on the matter. Look<strong>in</strong>g purely at the economic<br />
implications, states or municipalities that limit UAS<br />
use will miss out on the benefits of such systems and<br />
will likely quickly change their ways after other states<br />
prove out the potential of UAS and alleviate current<br />
concerns. However, it may be too late for states that<br />
adapt slowly, as companies will likely already be established<br />
<strong>in</strong> states without excess restrictions.<br />
TO READ THE FULL REPORT ONLINE, SCAN THIS QR CODE<br />
OR VISIT http://www.auvsi.org/econreport<br />
MISSION CRITICAL • May 2013 23
The national test beds available to developers today.<br />
Image courtesy U.S. Department of Transportation.<br />
Michigan’s<br />
Connected Vehicle Test Bed<br />
V2V AND V2I TECHNOLOGY A KEY ENABLER<br />
By David A. McNamara<br />
Automated driv<strong>in</strong>g — the ability of the car to<br />
drive itself — has captured the imag<strong>in</strong>ation.<br />
J.D. Power and Associates, the premier automotive<br />
market researcher, recently conducted a consumer<br />
study <strong>in</strong>dicat<strong>in</strong>g that one out of five consumers<br />
would purchase an automated vehicle. The connected<br />
automated car us<strong>in</strong>g vehicle-to-vehicle and vehicle-to<strong>in</strong>frastructure<br />
wireless creates new possibilities and is<br />
the future of transportation.<br />
Scientific Application International Corp., under contract<br />
by the U.S. Department of Transportation, operates<br />
the Connected Vehicle Test Bed <strong>in</strong> Novi, Mich., to<br />
test V2I applications that enhance safety and mobility.<br />
The CVTB and its resources were used by the developers<br />
of the technologies used <strong>in</strong> the Safety Pilot Model<br />
Deployment <strong>in</strong> Ann Arbor, Mich., to develop, test, and<br />
certify hardware and software and prove the <strong>in</strong>teroperability<br />
of those devices. The SPMD is a large-scale field<br />
operations test of 2,900 vehicles that is be<strong>in</strong>g used to<br />
study the effectiveness of V2V safety applications.<br />
Test<strong>in</strong>g the Technology<br />
When will the safety and mobility benefits of the driverless<br />
car be realized Transportation <strong>in</strong>dustry <strong>in</strong>siders predict<br />
that exist<strong>in</strong>g driver assistance systems will become<br />
conditionally automated — that is, an automated copilot<br />
will take control under certa<strong>in</strong> conditions. Exist<strong>in</strong>g<br />
radar- and camera-based systems can operate autonomously<br />
at lower speeds, under 35 mph. Volvo plans to<br />
put its version of this system, Traffic Assist, on the road<br />
as early as 2014. Richard Wallace, director of Transportation<br />
Systems Analysis at the Center for Automotive<br />
Research, follows these developments closely with an eye<br />
toward assess<strong>in</strong>g read<strong>in</strong>ess.<br />
“Vehicle automation at lower speeds is ready today,” he<br />
says. “Our study of the driverless car landscape tells us<br />
that these early systems will build on current, state-ofthe-art<br />
radar and electro-optical [camera] technologies.<br />
We have the opportunity to provide drivers with both<br />
added comfort and improved traffic throughput <strong>in</strong> congested<br />
corridors.”<br />
22 MISSION CRITICAL • May 2013
Test<strong>in</strong>g Test<strong>in</strong>g<br />
The <strong>in</strong>dustry can address many technical questions<br />
once it characterizes complex driv<strong>in</strong>g environments<br />
and provides real-life test environments. One key question<br />
unique to automated driv<strong>in</strong>g is the handoff from<br />
driver to the automated copilot and vice versa. Other<br />
technical questions <strong>in</strong>clude test<strong>in</strong>g to <strong>in</strong>teroperability<br />
standards and system and component robustness under<br />
real-life road conditions. This experience and feedback<br />
from developers underscores the importance of a test environment<br />
that emulates real-world road conditions —<br />
weather, radio reception, road type, urban <strong>in</strong>tersections<br />
and geography — and gives developers the freedom to<br />
configure tests.<br />
Methodology <strong>in</strong> Michigan<br />
The Connected Vehicle Test Bed is where new V2I applications<br />
can be created, tested and deployed on a large<br />
scale. A compell<strong>in</strong>g application the project is consider<strong>in</strong>g<br />
is “green wave” — the ability of cars, and especially<br />
commercial trucks, to avoid unnecessary brak<strong>in</strong>g and to<br />
maximize fuel efficiency. Cars and trucks communicate<br />
with <strong>in</strong>tersections and precisely <strong>in</strong>terpret traffic signal<br />
tim<strong>in</strong>g to control speeds at a safe and optimum speed.<br />
Developers can come to Michigan’s Telegraph Road portion<br />
of the Connected Vehicle Test Bed to experience<br />
these new applications. The Michigan Connected Vehicle<br />
Test Bed is comprised of more than 75 centerl<strong>in</strong>e<br />
miles of roadway. Roadside Equipment (RSE) can also<br />
broadcast Signal Phase and Tim<strong>in</strong>g (SPaT) and Geometric<br />
Intersection Description along Telegraph Road.<br />
The Michigan test bed is representative of several others<br />
throughout the U.S. that are open to developers. Assets<br />
<strong>in</strong>clude RSEs meet<strong>in</strong>g national standards located on<br />
various roads and <strong>in</strong>tersections; SPaT broadcasts; test vehicles<br />
dedicated for research and development; portable<br />
SPaT listeners, along with dedicated short-range communications<br />
(DSRC) sniffer capabilities; and custom,<br />
portable, solar-powered trailers for deploy<strong>in</strong>g RSEs <strong>in</strong><br />
targeted locations.<br />
Leverag<strong>in</strong>g Wireless Technology<br />
Wireless technology is a key enabler of the automated<br />
car, because it enhances safety and mobility, but what<br />
wireless technologies should be used Many safety applications<br />
require low-latency (e.g., an air bag deployment<br />
decision is <strong>in</strong> the low millisecond range) and determ<strong>in</strong>istic<br />
communications. The U.S. DOT’s National<br />
Highway Traffic Safety Adm<strong>in</strong>istration has chosen<br />
DSRC, a Wi-Fi based technology, for new V2V and V2I<br />
applications that require low-latency and short-range<br />
communications. Cellular is capable of a longer range<br />
of communication, while DSRC is so short range that<br />
it could warn drivers of <strong>in</strong>cidents immediately ahead.<br />
How should these wireless technologies be <strong>in</strong>tegrated for<br />
safety and mobility<br />
The Role of Connected Car Technology<br />
New V2V wireless technology allows cars to communicate<br />
to other cars, shar<strong>in</strong>g important <strong>in</strong>formation and<br />
tak<strong>in</strong>g automotive safety to the next level. Consumers<br />
expect the automated vehicle to employ the latest safety<br />
technology, and, therefore, exist<strong>in</strong>g driver assistance systems<br />
will be enhanced by the capabilities of V2V technology.<br />
With the addition of wireless, driver assistance<br />
systems become cooperative systems.<br />
Accord<strong>in</strong>g to the DOT website, “Connected vehicle<br />
safety applications are designed to <strong>in</strong>crease situational<br />
awareness and reduce or elim<strong>in</strong>ate crashes through vehicle-to-vehicle<br />
and vehicle-to-<strong>in</strong>frastructure data transmission<br />
that supports driver advisories, driver warn<strong>in</strong>gs<br />
and vehicle and/or <strong>in</strong>frastructure controls. These technologies<br />
may potentially address up to 82 percent of<br />
crash scenarios with unimpaired drivers, prevent<strong>in</strong>g tens<br />
of thousands of automobile crashes every year.“<br />
The Michigan safety pilot has the goal of characteriz<strong>in</strong>g<br />
and quantify<strong>in</strong>g the safety benefits. (For more <strong>in</strong>formation<br />
on the field operation, see the February 2013 edition<br />
of Unmanned Systems.)<br />
Volvo has demonstrated conditional automated driv<strong>in</strong>g,<br />
or “platoon<strong>in</strong>g,” <strong>in</strong> the European Safe Road Tra<strong>in</strong>s for<br />
the Environment Project, or SARTRE. Platoon<strong>in</strong>g employs<br />
radar, cameras and wireless for communication between<br />
vehicles. The military has recognized the benefits<br />
and will be the first adopter.<br />
Vehicle manufacturers, such as Toyota, th<strong>in</strong>k that fully<br />
automated driv<strong>in</strong>g is not the first focus for orig<strong>in</strong>al<br />
equipment manufacturers. Chuck Gulash, director of<br />
the Toyota Collaborative Safety Research Center <strong>in</strong> Ann<br />
Arbor, shares this viewpo<strong>in</strong>t, as he expressed at the SAE<br />
International Government/Industry meet<strong>in</strong>g held <strong>in</strong><br />
February <strong>in</strong> Wash<strong>in</strong>gton, D.C.<br />
“While key components of automated vehicle research<br />
efforts could lead to a fully automated car <strong>in</strong> the future,<br />
the vision is not necessarily a car that drives itself,” he<br />
said. “In our pursuit of develop<strong>in</strong>g more advanced automated<br />
technologies, we believe the driver must be fully<br />
engaged. Our vision is a car equipped with an <strong>in</strong>telligent,<br />
always-attentive copilot whose skills contribute to<br />
safer driv<strong>in</strong>g.<br />
MISSION CRITICAL • May 2013 23
A vision of cooperative wireless, show<strong>in</strong>g how various wireless technologies work seamlessly to provide services.<br />
Image courtesy SAIC.<br />
Affiliated Test Beds<br />
A national test bed framework allows developers to try<br />
new ideas, to capture real-life road conditions and to use<br />
<strong>in</strong>teroperable equipment built to the latest standards.<br />
Developers and certifiers, public and private, need this<br />
capability.<br />
Accord<strong>in</strong>g to the U.S. DOT connected vehicle research<br />
website, “The vision for the test beds is to establish multiple<br />
locations as part of a one connected system that can<br />
support cont<strong>in</strong>ued research, test<strong>in</strong>g and demonstration<br />
of connected vehicle concepts, standards, applications<br />
and <strong>in</strong>novative products. Test environments will also<br />
serve as precursors or foundations for state and local deployments<br />
us<strong>in</strong>g connected vehicles technologies.”<br />
Greg D. Krueger, Connected Vehicle Program manager<br />
at SAIC, says, “We need to harness and grow the abilities<br />
of exist<strong>in</strong>g <strong>in</strong>stallations and engage the research community<br />
to move towards full deployment. First, we need<br />
to create the test assets, and then make them available<br />
to all. These test beds will provide <strong>in</strong>teroperable equipment<br />
that meets national standards while at the same<br />
time meet the challenge of be<strong>in</strong>g constantly upgraded.”<br />
Accord<strong>in</strong>g to SAIC, which has a key role <strong>in</strong> mak<strong>in</strong>g test<br />
environments available to developers, this affiliated test<br />
bed effort will require an organizational structure built on<br />
collaboration, a common technical platform, shar<strong>in</strong>g lessons<br />
learned for development and deployment, common<br />
tools and resources across all facilities, and recognition as<br />
creat<strong>in</strong>g models for future large-scale deployments.<br />
The exist<strong>in</strong>g test beds, of which Michigan’s is the largest,<br />
<strong>in</strong>clude Anthem, Ariz., Palo Alto, Calif., McLean,<br />
Va., Orlando and Manhattan. Others are develop<strong>in</strong>g <strong>in</strong><br />
various locations <strong>in</strong> M<strong>in</strong>nesota and Virg<strong>in</strong>ia. They are<br />
start<strong>in</strong>g po<strong>in</strong>ts for organiz<strong>in</strong>g a national set of affiliated<br />
test beds. There is noth<strong>in</strong>g more important than test<strong>in</strong>g<br />
vehicle safety systems under real-life conditions. These<br />
test beds have emerged as important assets, a must for<br />
driverless car development.<br />
David A. McNamara is president of MTS LLC, an automotive<br />
electronics consultant. Greg D. Krueger and Ayeshah<br />
J. Abuelhiga of the Transportation Solutions Division<br />
of the Scientific Application International Corp. contributed<br />
to this article.<br />
24 MISSION CRITICAL • May 2013
Spotlight<br />
Fleet Automation Forum<br />
Work<strong>in</strong>g Group Tackles Commercialization Barriers<br />
By Mohammad Poorsartep<br />
The <strong>in</strong>troduction of automated vehicle technologies<br />
<strong>in</strong>to commercial truck<strong>in</strong>g is expected to have a significant<br />
impact on fleet safety and the bottom l<strong>in</strong>e.<br />
Moreover, the economic and social benefits that could<br />
be realized through fleets of automated vehicles <strong>in</strong>clude<br />
more efficient, less stressful traffic flow and better fuel<br />
economy, to name a few.<br />
Automated vehicle technologies have matured significantly<br />
<strong>in</strong> the last decade. As multiple technical approaches<br />
get <strong>in</strong>troduced, state governments are weigh<strong>in</strong>g<br />
<strong>in</strong> with a patchwork of regulations devised at promot<strong>in</strong>g<br />
the new technology while m<strong>in</strong>imiz<strong>in</strong>g risk. At least 15<br />
U.S. states have pend<strong>in</strong>g or passed legislation regard<strong>in</strong>g<br />
the use and operation of automated vehicles as of press<br />
time.<br />
Automated vehicle systems can address many problems.<br />
However, they face complex problems <strong>in</strong> the areas of<br />
technical <strong>in</strong>tegration, user acceptance, regulation, reliability<br />
and bus<strong>in</strong>ess-case development. The Fleet Automation<br />
Forum provides the venue to discuss barriers<br />
imped<strong>in</strong>g commercialization and to develop plans to<br />
overcome them.<br />
What is FAF<br />
The Fleet Automation Forum has already generated<br />
great <strong>in</strong>terest from government and <strong>in</strong>dustry. Designed<br />
as a user-centric collaborative forum, FAF actively engages<br />
important stakeholders from across multiple sectors<br />
to shape the automated fleet technologies market.<br />
The FAF will provide an organizational framework to<br />
coord<strong>in</strong>ate and direct activities necessary to def<strong>in</strong>e and<br />
accelerate technology commercialization.<br />
The FAF concept was generated by the U.S. Tank Automotive<br />
Research, Development and Eng<strong>in</strong>eer<strong>in</strong>g Center<br />
and is now spearheaded collaboratively by the University<br />
of Michigan and AUVSI with the goal of engag<strong>in</strong>g<br />
stakeholders from across multiple sectors to shape the<br />
automated fleet technologies market through work<strong>in</strong>g<br />
groups and open dialogue.<br />
Collaboration between users, fleet owners, technologists,<br />
rule makers, and others <strong>in</strong>teract<strong>in</strong>g <strong>in</strong> work<strong>in</strong>g<br />
groups and demonstration pilots will be critical to FAF.<br />
Operator <strong>in</strong>put and performance data collected through<br />
the FAF process will enable data-based decisions regard<strong>in</strong>g<br />
ongo<strong>in</strong>g technical development, rule and policy decisions,<br />
and market data for private <strong>in</strong>vestment.<br />
These will be achieved through three primary mechanisms:<br />
specialized work<strong>in</strong>g groups, pilot programs and<br />
an annual conference.<br />
Work<strong>in</strong>g groups will be formed around areas of common<br />
<strong>in</strong>terest or concern. Initial suggested work<strong>in</strong>g<br />
groups would be formed from users and other key stakeholders<br />
concerned with long-haul (freight), mass transit<br />
and regulatory/<strong>in</strong>surance issues. Other work<strong>in</strong>g groups,<br />
such as ones on passenger cars, will be organized over<br />
time as users identify new applications. Work<strong>in</strong>g groups<br />
will report at the annual conference but cont<strong>in</strong>ue to<br />
meet throughout the year.<br />
Pilot programs will be conducted where users will <strong>in</strong>tegrate<br />
automated systems <strong>in</strong>to their fleets and provide<br />
reports to work<strong>in</strong>g groups and other FAF members.<br />
The cost of <strong>in</strong>tegrat<strong>in</strong>g components <strong>in</strong>to systems may<br />
be subsidized, and special consideration dur<strong>in</strong>g vehicle<br />
operations may be offered to <strong>in</strong>centivize adoption of<br />
technologies.<br />
The annual conference will provide a regular sett<strong>in</strong>g to<br />
<strong>in</strong>crease awareness of technologies and their capabilities<br />
through demonstrations and colloquia and to generally<br />
educate the attendees about the capabilities of automated<br />
vehicle technologies. The annual conference<br />
will also provide a regular venue for work<strong>in</strong>g groups to<br />
present issues and recommendations to a wide audience<br />
of <strong>in</strong>terested stakeholders. Users and fleet operators will<br />
have opportunities to provide <strong>in</strong>put to technology developers<br />
and government organizations.<br />
Reasons for Automation<br />
Automated vehicle technology can address a number<br />
of problems that the fleet/truck<strong>in</strong>g <strong>in</strong>dustry is fac<strong>in</strong>g.<br />
Some of the problems <strong>in</strong>clude safety, fuel consumption<br />
and a driver shortage.<br />
Accidents <strong>in</strong> the truck<strong>in</strong>g <strong>in</strong>dustry result <strong>in</strong> $19 billion <strong>in</strong><br />
damage, lost goods, lost driver time, etc. These accidents<br />
MISSION CRITICAL • May 2013 25
also result <strong>in</strong> 5,000 deaths each year. The Federal Motor<br />
Carrier Safety Adm<strong>in</strong>istration (FMCSA) <strong>in</strong>troduced <strong>in</strong><br />
the Compliance, Safety, Accountability (CSA) scor<strong>in</strong>g<br />
system to track the safety records of drivers. In the <strong>in</strong>terest<br />
of safety, the CSA program provides a dis<strong>in</strong>centive<br />
to hire drivers with lower scores but has the un<strong>in</strong>tended<br />
consequence of <strong>in</strong>creas<strong>in</strong>g costs to fleet managers and<br />
reduc<strong>in</strong>g the available pool of drivers. Improved safety<br />
could potentially allow drivers and the fleets they serve<br />
to achieve higher CSA scores.<br />
In 2009, United States heavy trucks consumed 44 billion<br />
gallons of fuel (18 percent of the U.S. total) and<br />
produced 500 million tons of carbon dioxide. To put<br />
it another way, the average l<strong>in</strong>e haul trucker spends<br />
$70,000 a year on fuel — his s<strong>in</strong>gle largest expense.<br />
Significant research fund<strong>in</strong>g has been spent develop<strong>in</strong>g<br />
and evaluat<strong>in</strong>g semiautomated convoy technologies that<br />
reduce both fuel consumption and carbon dioxide output.<br />
Programs such as SARTRE and Energy ITS have<br />
demonstrated 20 percent and 15 percent fuel economy<br />
improvement, respectively, and are now be<strong>in</strong>g considered<br />
for production abroad.<br />
Driver Shortage<br />
The American Truck<strong>in</strong>g Association estimates that there<br />
is a shortage of between 20,000 and 25,000 drivers. If<br />
trends cont<strong>in</strong>ue, this number could rise to 239,000 by<br />
the end of the decade. Retirements <strong>in</strong> the baby boomer<br />
generation and the impact of CSA scores have contributed<br />
to a lack of qualified drivers, lead<strong>in</strong>g to the challenges<br />
of driver retention, competitiveness of drivers’<br />
pay and the <strong>in</strong>creased cost of recruit<strong>in</strong>g qualified drivers.<br />
FAF’s Objectives<br />
Federal rules govern<strong>in</strong>g commercial<br />
driver hours of service have <strong>in</strong>creas<strong>in</strong>gly<br />
become a major concern for<br />
the truck<strong>in</strong>g <strong>in</strong>dustry. The proposed<br />
changes — decreas<strong>in</strong>g driv<strong>in</strong>g and<br />
on-duty times and extend<strong>in</strong>g the restart<br />
provision — are problematic for<br />
the <strong>in</strong>dustry.<br />
Automated vehicle technologies are<br />
expected to make drivers more productive<br />
and safer while reduc<strong>in</strong>g fatigue.<br />
They can augment the driver<br />
<strong>in</strong> a way similar to that provided by<br />
autopilots and auto-land<strong>in</strong>g systems<br />
<strong>in</strong> the commercial aviation <strong>in</strong>dustry.<br />
The improvements could allow for<br />
more favorable hours of service rules<br />
as the technology is proven.<br />
The FAF’s objectives <strong>in</strong>clude validat<strong>in</strong>g a bus<strong>in</strong>ess case,<br />
accelerat<strong>in</strong>g technology adoption and <strong>in</strong>form<strong>in</strong>g policy<br />
makers.<br />
To do this, the FAF will collaboratively def<strong>in</strong>e, develop,<br />
and validate the costs and benefits associated with automated<br />
fleet technology. It will also accelerate the<br />
adoption of fleet automation systems by offer<strong>in</strong>g forum<br />
stakeholders a competitive advantage. Forum consensus<br />
will help identify which technologies require subsidized<br />
(public or private) fund<strong>in</strong>g. The FAF will capture users’<br />
needs and help <strong>in</strong>fluence research and technology<br />
<strong>in</strong>vestment. It will offer a s<strong>in</strong>gle sett<strong>in</strong>g to identify technology<br />
barriers and collaboratively develop solutions<br />
that will enable accelerated technology adoption.<br />
The FAF will support <strong>in</strong>formed regulatory decisions.<br />
Various state and federal agencies have legislation or regulations<br />
regard<strong>in</strong>g the use and operation of automated<br />
vehicles. Without coord<strong>in</strong>ation, such a patchwork of<br />
rules for automated systems will <strong>in</strong>crease costs, slow<br />
widespread application and potentially impede the development<br />
of technical or functional component standards.<br />
With support from government and <strong>in</strong>dustry, University<br />
of Michigan-Dearborn and AUVSI have been key<br />
players <strong>in</strong> organiz<strong>in</strong>g FAF.<br />
For more <strong>in</strong>formation or to be engaged with this activity,<br />
contact Mohammad Poorsartep from the University of<br />
Michigan-Dearborn at mpoorsar@umich.edu.<br />
26 MISSION CRITICAL • May 2013
End Users<br />
Is Your<br />
Guy Fraker<br />
<strong>Driverless</strong> Car<br />
<strong>in</strong> Good Hands<br />
Insurance Rema<strong>in</strong>s a Hurdle for <strong>Driverless</strong> Car Technology<br />
<strong>Driverless</strong> cars pose a host of technological and even<br />
social acceptance challenges, but there’s another issue<br />
that must be resolved before they truly take to<br />
the roads — <strong>in</strong>surance.<br />
“There is a new era of mobility. ... You’re see<strong>in</strong>g new drive<br />
tra<strong>in</strong>s, new metals, new glass, autonomous functions,<br />
shared transportation, at a hockey-stick growth rate, and<br />
one of the only places where all of those trends come<br />
together <strong>in</strong> a way that affects the consumer pocketbook<br />
immediately is <strong>in</strong>surance,” says Guy Fraker, a technology<br />
consultant and former Innovation Director from with<strong>in</strong><br />
the <strong>in</strong>surance <strong>in</strong>dustry. Fraker has studied the issue of<br />
<strong>in</strong>surance and driverless technology s<strong>in</strong>ce 2007.<br />
One problem for the <strong>in</strong>dustry <strong>in</strong> general is that it is<br />
regulated by 51 separate state commissioner offices, so<br />
sett<strong>in</strong>g <strong>in</strong>surance rates means gett<strong>in</strong>g approval 51 times,<br />
with some of those processes tak<strong>in</strong>g years.<br />
“If they [<strong>in</strong>surance companies] file a rate wrong, it can<br />
take years to get a corrective fil<strong>in</strong>g approved, even if it’s<br />
a discount, and may require tens of millions of dollars <strong>in</strong><br />
programm<strong>in</strong>g hours,” Fraker tells Mission Critical.<br />
“You have 51 <strong>in</strong>dependent, uncoord<strong>in</strong>ated state <strong>in</strong>surance<br />
commissioners. They are typically not a regulatory<br />
body sought out <strong>in</strong> advance of broad-scale vehicle deployment<br />
as their role is to react to rate fil<strong>in</strong>gs from <strong>in</strong>surers<br />
who have taken those factors <strong>in</strong>to account. If an<br />
auto manufacturer is go<strong>in</strong>g to come out with someth<strong>in</strong>g<br />
dramatic, they will go to the DMV, but not necessarily<br />
the department of <strong>in</strong>surance. However, now that a<br />
‘driver’ may be an artificial <strong>in</strong>telligent operat<strong>in</strong>g system,<br />
the time will come for this to change.”<br />
Another big question fac<strong>in</strong>g both auto manufacturers<br />
and <strong>in</strong>surers centers on the cost of repair. For <strong>in</strong>stance,<br />
a new design might feature radar sensors <strong>in</strong>stalled low<br />
MISSION CRITICAL • May 2013 27
<strong>in</strong> the front grill. But if a trip down a gravel road breaks<br />
those sensors, what cost $150 to $200 to <strong>in</strong>stall on the<br />
assembly l<strong>in</strong>e might cost 10 times that to replace.<br />
“The <strong>in</strong>surance <strong>in</strong>dustry is essentially <strong>in</strong> the bus<strong>in</strong>ess of<br />
restor<strong>in</strong>g someth<strong>in</strong>g from an un<strong>in</strong>tended loss. While<br />
auto manufacturers are certa<strong>in</strong>ly m<strong>in</strong>dful of repairability,<br />
a simple design choice that is appeal<strong>in</strong>g to the market<strong>in</strong>g<br />
people or the design folks may also hold an un<strong>in</strong>tended<br />
consequence of <strong>in</strong>creas<strong>in</strong>g the vehicle’s premium despite<br />
a near-zero collision record,” Fraker says.<br />
The large <strong>in</strong>surance companies are also cautious, especially<br />
when it comes to autonomous technology, a real<br />
revolution <strong>in</strong> the automotive world. The companies are<br />
used to hav<strong>in</strong>g tens of millions of vehicle miles traveled<br />
as a data set.<br />
For <strong>in</strong>stance, crash test data is easy to get: ram two cars<br />
together and see what happens. <strong>Driverless</strong> car technology,<br />
however, is meant to avoid such outcomes but it’s<br />
difficult to measure their effectiveness.<br />
“That’s a real issue,” Fraker says. “Insurance is really good<br />
at measur<strong>in</strong>g what happens. The <strong>in</strong>dustry is not built on<br />
measur<strong>in</strong>g what doesn’t happen.”<br />
The Solutions<br />
Faced with these problems, Fraker sees a couple of possible<br />
solutions. One, the technology will likely be embraced<br />
by smaller, more nimble <strong>in</strong>surance companies<br />
that can <strong>in</strong>novate faster than the <strong>in</strong>dustry titans.<br />
They’ll use an Internet-based claims model and be more<br />
will<strong>in</strong>g to take chances.<br />
“That’s the k<strong>in</strong>d of company that can use self-driv<strong>in</strong>g<br />
vehicles as their breakout technology,” Fraker says.<br />
“If you have a small specialty l<strong>in</strong>e <strong>in</strong>surer that can move<br />
under the radar because their bus<strong>in</strong>ess isn’t that big to<br />
beg<strong>in</strong> with, if you want to <strong>in</strong>novate and go to market,<br />
the upside with them is pace,” he says. “If you want<br />
one of the big brand names to endorse your technology,<br />
you’re go<strong>in</strong>g to grow old.”<br />
One change that could help br<strong>in</strong>g even the large companies<br />
along would be to replace the 51-state and district<br />
<strong>in</strong>surance regulatory model with a s<strong>in</strong>gle federal-level<br />
entity, maybe aimed just at sett<strong>in</strong>g <strong>in</strong>surance rates for<br />
driverless cars.<br />
Insurance companies “could save all the operational expenses<br />
to file and file and correct, by just deal<strong>in</strong>g with one<br />
entity,” he says. While the federal government is often criticized<br />
over questions of pace by some, “This is one where<br />
I believe tremendous potential ga<strong>in</strong>s could be achieved.”<br />
Fraker says.<br />
Auto companies also could pool their test data, someth<strong>in</strong>g<br />
they have been very reluctant to do. But do<strong>in</strong>g so<br />
could generate the millions of miles of data the <strong>in</strong>surance<br />
<strong>in</strong>dustry would like to see.<br />
“If we took, hypothetically, all the manufacturers and<br />
all the cars they have on the road, and add Google, we<br />
probably have 1 to 2 million miles of test data,” Fraker<br />
says. “But who’s aggregat<strong>in</strong>g it, and where is that be<strong>in</strong>g<br />
used”<br />
Even if all that is done, one big challenge still rema<strong>in</strong>s<br />
— pric<strong>in</strong>g the <strong>in</strong>surance to reflect the quality of the<br />
technology. Currently, rates change depend<strong>in</strong>g on the<br />
experience of the driver. A newly m<strong>in</strong>ted teenage driver<br />
pays much more than a 45-year-old driver, for <strong>in</strong>stance.<br />
“Here’s what’s <strong>in</strong>terest<strong>in</strong>g: Will the <strong>in</strong>surance premiums<br />
reflect an <strong>in</strong>experienced operator when the car is<br />
do<strong>in</strong>g the driv<strong>in</strong>g If that is the case, then there is a<br />
profound consumer message be<strong>in</strong>g sent about unreliability,”<br />
Fraker says.<br />
Liability lawsuits <strong>in</strong> the United States also pose a problem,<br />
he says.<br />
“No other society <strong>in</strong> the world has litigation with the<br />
lottery mentality as it is here,” Fraker says. “If we’re not<br />
careful, we are only go<strong>in</strong>g to slow it down right here at<br />
home. This could literally cost the U.S. a technological<br />
leadership position. It’s happened before. And that<br />
would be a tragedy.”<br />
Despite these hurdles, he sees autonomous driv<strong>in</strong>g become<br />
a reality, if for no other reason than the alwayswired<br />
millennial generation wants to stay connected<br />
even when <strong>in</strong> a vehicle.<br />
“Driv<strong>in</strong>g is a distraction for them. If they can’t stay connected,<br />
they are not go<strong>in</strong>g to buy a car.”<br />
It also means freedom of mobility for the elderly and disabled<br />
and other populations, someth<strong>in</strong>g that hit home<br />
for Fraker personally when his son, who is on the autism<br />
spectrum and unable to drive, showed him a Web report<br />
on driverless technology a few years ago.<br />
“He saw the first videos that The New York Times broke<br />
about self-driv<strong>in</strong>g cars” and asked his father what he<br />
thought. Fraker <strong>in</strong>stead asked his son what he thought<br />
about it. “He said, ‘it means I get to own a car someday.’<br />
That hit me. It has driven me s<strong>in</strong>ce.”<br />
28 MISSION CRITICAL • May 2013
12-15 August<br />
Walter E. Wash<strong>in</strong>gton Convention Center • Wash<strong>in</strong>gton, D.C.<br />
REGI<br />
NOW<br />
TER<br />
Conference from 12 - 15 August<br />
Tradeshow from 13 - 15 August<br />
600+ Exhibit<strong>in</strong>g Companies<br />
40+ Countries Represented<br />
8,000+ Attendees<br />
Promot<strong>in</strong>g and Support<strong>in</strong>g<br />
Unmanned Systems<br />
and Robotics Across the Globe<br />
auvsishow.org<br />
MISSION CRITICAL • May 2013 31
SAVE<br />
the<br />
DATE<br />
Köln, Germany • 15-16 October 2013<br />
Save the date for this dynamic conference packed with<br />
a great l<strong>in</strong>e-up of speakers represent<strong>in</strong>g <strong>in</strong>ternational<br />
regulatory agencies, as well as civil and commercial<br />
remotely piloted aircraft systems (RPAS) end users.<br />
PLANNED SESSION<br />
TOPICS INCLUDE:<br />
• Emerg<strong>in</strong>g RPAS applications <strong>in</strong> the commercial and civilian sectors<br />
• Market Trends Talk – A discussion on potential for emerg<strong>in</strong>g UAS applications<br />
• Facilitat<strong>in</strong>g RPAS operations <strong>in</strong> unrestricted airspace<br />
• Standards development for RPAS <strong>in</strong> Europe<br />
• Fund<strong>in</strong>g and <strong>in</strong>sur<strong>in</strong>g RPAS operations<br />
• Influenc<strong>in</strong>g public perception on RPAS operations<br />
• Encourag<strong>in</strong>g mutual cooperation for RPAS<br />
development between the defense and<br />
commercial sectors<br />
For the latest event<br />
<strong>in</strong>formation, <strong>in</strong>clud<strong>in</strong>g<br />
a detailed agenda and<br />
speaker l<strong>in</strong>e-up, visit<br />
www.auvsi.org/use