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Sample Chapter Download - Euromoney Books

Sample Chapter Download - Euromoney Books

Sample Chapter Download - Euromoney

12222 2 3 41 5 6 7 8 9 1011 1 2 3111 4 5 6 7 8 9 20111 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 30111 1 2 3 4 35 6 7 8 9 40111 1 2 3 44211 Chapter 1 Global infrastructure—a growth story David Rickards, Macquarie Bank Drivers of growth We need an investment of about US$150bn in the next seven to eight years to realise our ambition to provide our country with an infrastructure which is equal to the economic and social challenges that we face. Manmohan Singh, Indian PM One of the biggest challenges facing the world Infrastructure has grown rapidly as a sector in the world economy. An estimated 2 per cent of GDP, or around US$800bn, is spent on infrastructure investment and maintenance annually. As an indicator of the sector’s growth, the total market capitalisation of the Macquarie Global Infrastructure Index (MGII), a proxy for listed global infrastructure, has grown from US$465bn in 2000 to US$1,237bn in March 2006. The historic pace of growth is likely to continue, fuelled by demographic and macroeconomic changes. A rising global population, strong economic growth and a greater focus on competitiveness are creating demand for new infrastructure close to 1 per cent of global GDP. What is perhaps more important is that the maintenance of existing assets is estimated to be equal to a further 1.2 per cent of global GDP. 1 Demographic change Rising populations and demographic change put pressure on existing infrastructure and create demand for increased investment. The world population is expected to grow at an average rate of 1.1 per cent annually to reach 7.2bn by 2015. 2 This is illustrated in Exhibit 1.1. According to World Bank estimates, the urban population in East Asia and the Pacific region is projected to increase by 500m over the next 20 years. This will place tremendous pressure on existing urban infrastructure, especially basic services such as electricity generation, telecoms, water and sanitation. The World Bank estimates that infrastructure investment of close to US$180bn a year will be required for this region alone. 1

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