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Treasury Daily Market Report - 30 June 2009 Page 1

Headline News

• U.S. equities seeking equilibrium

into half-year end and ahead of

Jun payrolls

• UK GfK June consumer confidence

rose to -25 from -27 in May, as

expected

• Japan May unemployment rose to

5.2% SA

• Annual inflation in Oman fell for a

sixth straight month to 3.9 per cent

last month, the lowest rate in 31

months, the Ministry of National

Economy said yesterday.

Daily Commentary

Good morning.

EUR-USD has found a steady bid into month-end, rising from lows

under 1.4000 on Monday to highs of 1.4132 today in Asia, with a

broader uptrend intact from mid-June. Talk of month end USD selling

coupled with the surge in oil, a dollar negative, are both contributing

to the gains in the EUR-USD this session. Traders report buyers

at 1.4100, and lower at 1.4000-20. Offers are eyed ahead of

1.4150 but stops are reported above which may be targeted later

today. Traders say that much of the flows are being driven by

month-end, quarter end and half year positioning, and otherwise,

there is little interest.

U.S. Treasury yields are little changed in Asia compared to late NY

levels with ten-year yields at 3.49% unchanged from NY and similarly,

two-year yields are unchanged at 1.11%. Traders are wary of

taking fresh positions ahead of month-end, quarter-end and halfyear

end with many flows being attributed to month end positioning.

Traders are anticipating an improvement in the upcoming U.S. jobs

data and analysts are tipping a rebound in U.S. auto sales in June

when the data is released on Wednesday. Ford is already anticipating

that car sales will only fall 10-20% in June according to reports,

much better than recent declines and possibly adding to signs of an

improvement.

August contracts are up $1.41 at $72.90, after already posting

gains of $2.33 in New York on Friday. Oil gains are largely being

linked to Nigerian attacks and the news that China is going

to increase their crude reserves by 60 percent over the next

five years. Also underpinning prices is the news that China will

raise retail prices for gas, diesel and jet fuel from today. However,

countering the surprising gains are the reports that U.S.

gas prices dropped for the first time in several weeks and demand

for the July 4th holiday is tipped to be weak.

The debt restructurings of privately-owned Saudi groups Saad

and Al Gosaibi could curtail international lending to Saudi Arabia

and the Middle East, banking sources said yesterday. The

Saudi problems come after similar issues in Kuwait, and companies

in the Gulf region may now face problems refinancing

syndicated or bilateral loans, bankers say, as fears spread they

are facing structural debt problems.

The Saudi economy is forecast to shrink 1.2 per cent this year,

despite a stronger market for oil and expanded government

investment, it was revealed yesterday. The recovery of oil

prices to above $60 a barrel and a forecast 24pc increase in

government spending is not enough to offset a sharp slowdown

in private sector activity, Riyadh-based Samba Bank said.

United Arab Emirates banks have

"significant" exposure to troubled

Saudi groups Saad and AlGosaibi,

the UAE central bank governor told

Reuters yesterday.

• NYMEX crude surged over $73 in

Asia; China demand, Nigeria attacks

eyed

NYMEX crude has surged above $73 in Asian trading, reaching as

high as $73.38 reportedly in heavy volume trading. Currently, crude

Schedule of Forthcoming Key Economic Releases and Events

Tuesday, 30th June

US — ABC Consumer Comfort Index

US — Redbook

US — Consumer Confidence

US — Chicago PMI

EU — CPI

UK — GDP

Wednesday, 01st July

US — Challenger Layoffs

US — Monster Employment Index

Have a nice day.

US — MBA Mortgage Applications

CA — Canada Day - Mkts Closed

Thursday, 02nd July

US — Initial Claims

US — Nonfarm Payrolls

US — Unemployment Rate

EU — ECB Rate Announcement

EU — Unemployment Rate

Friday, 03rd July

US — Independence Day Observed -

U.S. Mkts Closed

EU — Reuters PMI

EU — Retail Sales

Monday, 06th July

US — ISM-NMI-Prices

JP — Leading Index

JP — FX Reserves

This document has been prepared and issued by Ahli United Bank B.S.C. (“AUB”) which is regulated by the Central Bank of Bahrain. All recipients of this document should note that it is being furnished to them solely for information purposes and may not be reproduced

or redistributed to any other person without the permission of AUB. Although information has been obtained from and is based upon sources believed to be reliable, AUB does not warrant its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates

constitute AUB’s judgement at the date of publication and are subject to change without notice. AUB does not advise as to the suitability or otherwise of this information and provides the information to recipients exclusively on the basis that they have sufficient

knowledge, experience and/or professional financial, legal, tax and other advice to make an independent assessment thereof.


Treasury Daily Market Report - 30 June 2009 Page 2

Foreign Exchange Snapshot

CCY Today Previous Change % Change 2009 High 2009 Low

USD TW Index 79.68 80.07 -0.39 -0.49% 89.51 78.37

EUR/USD 1.4113 1.4029 0.0084 0.60% 1.4337 1.2459

GBP/USD 1.6631 1.648 0.0151 0.92% 1.6661 1.3502

USD/JPY 95.78 95.47 0.3100 0.32% 101.45 87.15

USD/CHF 1.0814 1.0865 -0.0051 -0.47% 1.1965 1.0592

EUR/GBP 0.8481 0.8512 -0.0031 -0.37% 0.9649 0.8400

AUD/USD 0.8105 0.802 0.0085 1.06% 0.8263 0.6248

USD/CAD 1.1555 1.1554 0.0001 0.01% 1.3063 1.0785

USD/INR 47.87 48.12 -0.25 -0.52% 51.99 46.78

USD/IQD 1180.00 1180.00 0.00 0.00% 1180.00 1146.10

USD/SAR 3.7502 3.75035 -0.0001 0.00% 3.7538 3.7473

USD/BHD 0.37701 0.37702 -0.00001 0.00% 0.3773 0.3767

USD/KWD 0.28740 0.28725 0.00015 0.05% 0.29390 0.27775

USD/QAR 3.6398 3.6403 -0.0005 -0.01% 3.6430 3.6345

USD/OMR 0.38501 0.3846 0.00041 0.11% 0.38510 0.38260

USD/EGP 5.6030 5.6000 0.0030 0.05% 5.70350 5.49500

Equity Market Snapshot

Index

Last

Close

Prev.

Close

Daily

Chg

% Daily

Chg

2009

% Chg

52 Wk

High

Official Interest Rates

US Discount Rate 0.50% 16-Dec-08 Fed Funds 0.25% 16-Dec-08

ECB Lending Rate 1.75% 07-May-09 ECB Repo 1.00% 07-May-09

BOE Lending Rate 0.50% 05-Mar-09 UK Base Rate 0.50% 05-Mar-09

Bahrain Repo 2.75% 16-Dec-08 Deposit Facility 0.25% 16-Dec-08

Qatar Repo 5.55% 03-Jul-06 Deposit Facility 2.00% 05-May-08

Kuw ait Discount Rate 3.00% 14-May-09 Kuw ait 1M Repo 2.50% 17-Dec-08

Saudi Repo 2.00% 19-Jan-09 Reverse Repo 0.25% 16-Jun-09

Corridor Rate 10.50% 19-Jun-09 Egypt O/N Dep 9.00% 19-Jun-09

FOMC Meetings 2008/09

28-Jan-09 unchanged

18-Mar-09 unchanged

29-Apr-09 unchanged

24-Jun-09 unchanged

12-Aug-09

23-Sep-09

04-Nov-09

16-Dec-09

ECB Meetings 2008/09

02-Apr-09 cut 25bps

07-May-09 cut 25bps

04-Jun-09 unchanged

02-Jul-09

06-Aug-09

03-Sep-09

08-Oct-09

05-Nov-09

Money Market Rates

Libor Today Previous Change 2009 High 2009 Low

USD 3Mth 0.59688 0.59750 -0.00062 1.41250 0.59688

USD 6Mth 1.11750 1.09500 0.02250 1.96188 1.09500

USD 12Mth 1.59750 1.59125 0.00625 2.29750 1.53125

EUR 3Mth 1.10800 1.12000 -0.01200 2.85900 1.10800

EUR 6Mth 1.32200 1.33400 -0.01200 2.94500 1.32200

EUR 12Mth 1.51000 1.51500 -0.00500 3.02500 1.51000

GBP 3Mth 1.19125 1.20000 -0.00875 2.70500 1.19125

GBP 6Mth 1.40875 1.41625 -0.00750 2.90250 1.40875

GBP 12Mth 1.69500 1.70000 -0.00500 3.01125 1.69500

AUB Bhibor 3Mth 1.61000 1.61000 0.00000 2.56000 1.61000

AUB Bhibor 6Mth 1.97000 1.99000 -0.02000 2.75000 1.96000

AUB Bhibor 12Mth 2.57000 2.57000 0.00000 3.00000 2.57000

SAR 3Mth 0.64625 0.64625 0.00000 2.41250 0.63875

SAR 6Mth 0.98625 0.98813 -0.00188 2.65000 0.25713

SAR 12Mth 1.28250 1.28413 -0.00163 2.98875 1.27500

This document has been prepared and issued by Ahli United Bank B.S.C. (“AUB”) which is regulated by the Central Bank of Bahrain. All recipients of this document should note that it is being furnished to them solely for information

purposes and may not be reproduced or redistributed to any other person without the permission of AUB. Although information has been obtained from and is based upon sources believed to be reliable, AUB does not warrant its accuracy

and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute AUB’s judgement at the date of publication and are subject to change without notice. AUB does not advise as to the suitability or otherwise of this information

and provides the information to recipients exclusively on the basis that they have sufficient knowledge, experience and/or professional financial, legal, tax and other advice to make an independent assessment thereof.

52 Wk

Low

Dow Jones 8,529 8,438 90.99 1.08% -2.81% 11,867 6,470

NASDAQ 1,844 1,838 5.84 0.32% 16.93% 2,473 1,266

FTSE 4,294 4,241 53.02 1.25% -3.17% 6,535 3,512

Nikkei 9,975 9,902 73.13 0.74% 12.59% 15,413 7,061

S&P 927 919 8.33 0.91% 2.65% 1,367 677

Kuw ait SE 8,010 8,096 -85.70 -1.06% 2.92% 15,668 4,192

Dubai SE 1,795 1745 50.16 2.87% 9.71% 6,320 536

Saudi SE 5,553 5,490 63.06 1.15% 15.62% 11,697 4,130

Qatar SE 6,434 6,579 -145.80 -2.22% -6.57% 12,636 4,230

Bahrain SE 1,581 1,590 -8.79 -0.55% -12.38% 2,914 1,572

Muscat SE 5,601 5,632 -31.60 -0.56% 2.94% 5,815 4,224

Egypt Hermes 515 508 7.27 1.43% 20.66% 591 328

AUB Group Equity

AUB Stock - Bahrain (US$) 0.515 0.500 0.02 3.00% -18.25% 1.400 0.365

AUB Stock - Kuw ait (Kw D) 0.156 0.156 0.00 0.00% -14.29% 0.385 0.114

AUB Stock - Kuw ait (US$ Eqv) 0.543 0.543 -0.00 -0.05% -17.13% 1.386 0.390

BKME Stock - (Kw D) 0.500 0.500 0.00 0.00% -3.85% 0.857 0.360

ABQ Stock - (QAR) 43.00 43.00 0.00 0.00% -1.15% 76.52 36.00

AUB (Egypt) Stock - (EGP) 13.80 13.80 0.00 0.00% 30.81% 35.98 10.45

AHLI Bank Oman Stock - (OMR) 0.186 0.185 0.00 0.54% 24.83% 0.318 0.123

KMEFIC Stock (Kw D) 0.138 0.140 -0.00 -1.43% -49.82% 0.564 0.122


Treasury Daily Market Report - 30 June 2009 Page 3

Capital & Bond Market Snapshot

Swaps Today Previous Change

Interest Rate Futures

2009

High

2009

Low

USD Implied GBP Implied EUR Implied

3m Libor 0.60% 1.19% 1.11%

Sep-09 99.335 0.67% 98.870 1.13% 98.960 1.04%

Dec-09 99.095 0.91% 98.660 1.34% 98.820 1.18%

Mar-10 98.855 1.15% 98.390 1.61% 98.695 1.31%

Jun-10 98.510 1.49% 97.920 2.08% 98.410 1.59%

Sep-10 98.150 1.85% 97.430 2.57% 98.095 1.91%

Dec-10 97.770 2.23% 96.910 3.09% 97.740 2.26%

Mar-11 97.435 2.57% 96.500 3.50% 97.465 2.54%

Benchmark

Govt Yields

USD 2Yr 1.49 1.47 0.02 1.91 1.19 1.12

USD 3Yr 2.10 2.10 0.00 2.56 1.53 1.63

USD 5Yr 2.90 2.96 -0.06 3.48 1.88 2.54

USD 10Yr 3.72 3.73 -0.02 4.30 2.33 3.50

USD 30Yr 4.13 4.14 0.00 4.61 2.61 4.31

EUR 2Yr 1.82 1.80 0.02 2.73 1.73 1.36

EUR 3Yr 2.36 2.31 0.05 2.94 2.23 1.72

EUR 5Yr 2.89 2.90 -0.01 3.27 2.77 2.48

EUR 10Yr 3.65 3.69 -0.04 3.90 3.46 3.37

GBP 2Yr 2.29 2.20 0.09 2.63 1.90 1.22

GBP 3Yr 2.96 2.90 0.06 3.11 2.30 2.14

GBP 5Yr 3.65 3.63 0.02 3.77 2.87 2.79

GBP 10Yr 4.15 4.19 -0.04 4.31 3.46 3.61

SAR 2Yr 1.54 1.49 0.05 2.45 1.19 -0.26

SAR 3Yr 2.26 2.24 0.02 2.86 1.81 0.47

SAR 5Yr 3.13 3.12 0.01 3.72 2.39 1.89

SAR 10Yr 4.12 4.13 -0.01 4.95 3.46 3.52

Swap

Spreads

Change

2009

High

2009

Low

Govt

Spreads

US 2Yr / 5Yr 1.40 1.49 -0.08 1.62 0.65 1.43

US 2Yr / 10Yr 2.22 2.26 -0.04 2.68 1.04 2.39

US 10yr / 30yr 0.42 0.41 0.01 0.51 0.06 0.80

US / EUR 10yr 0.07 0.05 0.02 0.55 -1.29 0.27

Commodities

Commodity Today Previous Change % Change 2009 High 2009 Low

RJ CRB Index 254.31 251.31 3.0000 1.19% 262.25 200.34

WTC 71.44 69.13 2.3100 3.34% 72.12 34.53

Gold ($) 941.85 936.70 5.1500 0.55% 997.30 809.25

Silver ($) 14.03 14.03 0.0000 0.00% 16.18 10.60

Platinum ($) 1200 1203 -2.5000 -0.21% 1272 914

Calendar Spreads

3 M th USD GBP EUR

Sep-09 Dec-09 -0.240 -0.210 -0.140

Dec-09 Mar-10 -0.240 -0.270 -0.125

Mar-10 Jun-10 -0.345 -0.470 -0.285

Jun-10 Sep-10 -0.360 -0.490 -0.315

Sep-10 Dec-10 -0.380 -0.520 -0.355

Dec-10 Mar-11 -0.335 -0.410 -0.275

6 M th USD GBP EUR

Sep-09 Mar-10 -0.480 -0.480 -0.265

Dec-09 Jun-10 -0.585 -0.740 -0.410

Mar-10 Sep-10 -0.705 -0.960 -0.600

Jun-10 Dec-10 -0.740 -1.010 -0.670

Sep-10 Mar-11 -0.715 -0.930 -0.630

12 M th USD GBP EUR

Sep-09 Sep-10 -1.185 -1.440 -0.865

Dec-09 Dec-10 -1.325 -1.750 -1.080

Mar-10 Mar-11 -1.420 -1.890 -1.230

Currency Spreads

GBP/USD EUR/USD GBP/EUR

3m Libor 0.59% 0.51% 0.08%

Sep-09 0.47% 0.37% 0.09%

Dec-09 0.44% 0.28% 0.16%

Mar-10 0.46% 0.16% 0.30%

Jun-10 0.59% 0.10% 0.49%

Sep-10 0.72% 0.05% 0.66%

Dec-10 0.86% 0.03% 0.83%

Mar-11 0.94% -0.03% 0.97%

This document has been prepared and issued by Ahli United Bank B.S.C. (“AUB”) which is regulated by the Central Bank of Bahrain. All recipients of this document should note that it is being furnished to them solely for information

purposes and may not be reproduced or redistributed to any other person without the permission of AUB. Although information has been obtained from and is based upon sources believed to be reliable, AUB does not warrant its accuracy

and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute AUB’s judgement at the date of publication and are subject to change without notice. AUB does not advise as to the suitability or otherwise of this information

and provides the information to recipients exclusively on the basis that they have sufficient knowledge, experience and/or professional financial, legal, tax and other advice to make an independent assessment thereof.


Treasury Daily Market Report - 30 June 2009 Page 4

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This document has been prepared and issued by Ahli United Bank B.S.C. (“AUB”) which is regulated by the Central Bank of Bahrain. All recipients of this document should note that it is being furnished to them solely for information

purposes and may not be reproduced or redistributed to any other person without the permission of AUB. Although information has been obtained from and is based upon sources believed to be reliable, AUB does not warrant its accuracy

and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute AUB’s judgement at the date of publication and are subject to change without notice. AUB does not advise as to the suitability or otherwise of this information

and provides the information to recipients exclusively on the basis that they have sufficient knowledge, experience and/or professional financial, legal, tax and other advice to make an independent assessment thereof.

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