Effects of Emerald Ash Borer on Midwest and Northeast United ...

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Effects of Emerald Ash Borer on Midwest and Northeast United ...

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Forests in the Upper Midwest

Ryan D. DeSantis, W. Keith Moser, Robert J. Huggett, Ruhong Li, David N. Wear, and Patrick D. Miles


Introduction:

Northern Forest Futures Project

• Multi-year project designed to:

– Forecast natural resource and societal trends

– Determine how trends will impact forests

– Determine how impacts will change the ability ong>ofong>

forests to contribute to our well-being

– Predict future conditions ong>ofong> our forests

– Use that knowledge to inform decisions

– Continue to strengthen relationships between

agencies

– Influence policy at multiple levels

2


Introduction:

Northern Forest Futures Project

• Important issues & trends include:

– Environmental literacy

– Forest area & wood supply

– Fragmentation & parcelization

– Invasive insects and diseases (e.g., EAB)

– Recreation pressures

– Stewardship & forest management

– Water quality & supply

– Wildlife habitat

3


Introduction: FIA & Eastern Region

• FIA

– Counties & Inventory Units

– FIA plots

– Forest land (>1ac, >10% cover, >120’ wide)

• FS Eastern Region (NRS)

4


Introduction: Current ong>Ashong> Resource

ong>Ashong> uses:

– Veneer & flooring

– Furniture & cabinetry

– Musical instruments

– Baseball bats, tennis rackets, snowshoes, skis, oars

– Tool handles

– Woven baskets (Native Americans)

– Fuel wood

– Nursery/horticulture:

• Urban street trees

• Landscaping

www.umn.edu

5


Introduction: Current ong>Ashong> Resource

• Eastern Region ash:

5.8 billion trees + saplings

427 million m 3 ong>ofong> volume (net volume in central stems ong>ofong> sample trees >12.7 cm

DBH, from 30-cm stump to 10-cm top)

247 million metric tons above & belowground carbon

(above + below-ground carbon in trees >2.5 cm DBH, excluding foliage)

5% ong>ofong> total basal area and total above- & belowground

carbon (for all woody plants >2.5 cm DBH )

6


Introduction: Current ong>Ashong> Resource

• Eastern Region ash:

44% white, 34% black, 21% green

(


Introduction: Current ong>Ashong> Resource

• Eastern Region ash:

77%


Introduction: Upper Midwest ong>Ashong> (MN, WI, MI)

• 47% ong>ofong> all Eastern Region ash stems

• 36% ong>ofong> all ash basal area

• 28% ong>ofong> all ash volume

• 17% ong>ofong> all ash is in MN

‣ 80%


Introduction: EAB

• NNIB native to eastern Asia

• Detected in North America in 2002 (southeastern MI; Haack et al.

2002) (established since early 1990s; Siegert et al. 2007)

• Larvae feed on ash xylem & phloem (girdles trees & disrupts

water and nutrient transport)

• Spreading at 20 km/yr (average short range dispersal from core infested area in

southeastern MI; Prasad et al. 2010)

• >99% mortality rate for nearly all ash (all size classes, blue ash

not as susceptible but green, white, and black ash highly susceptible and comprise >99% ong>ofong> all ash; Herms et al.

2010) (Asian ash species not infested & killed)

11


Research Questions

• How will EAB affect Upper Midwest forests

• What will future ash forests look like

– How will volume change

– How will the number ong>ofong> saplings & trees change

– How will species composition change

14


Methods: NFFP

• Baseline assessment ong>ofong> the current forest

– Point ong>ofong> reference for future departures

• Assessments ong>ofong> future forest conditions,

changes in forest benefits, and impacts on

society

• Comparisons ong>ofong> futures to the baseline and

across scenarios

• Based on FIA forest type groups (e.g., elm-ash-cottonwood, EAC; OH,

oak-hickory)

– Most ash in EAC, some in OH

15


Methods: NFFP

• NFFP forecasts changes in forest inventory

2010-2060 in 5-year increments

• Scenario approach, range ong>ofong> plausible futures

• Responsive to:

– Human population distributions

– Global economic conditions

– Energy and technology use

– Climate (3 IPCC scenarios and 4 climate change

models)

– Timber harvesting

– Land use change

– Other disturbance factors

– Natural succession

16


Methods: EAB Modeling

• Comparisons between models:

– Standard model = A2 CGCM 3.1

– EAB model = A2 CGCM 3.1 with “EAB tweak”

– Same “storylines”:

• Combination ong>ofong> A2 IPCC scenario (initial drivers were population

growth and GDP growth) & CGCM 3.1 climate model

– A2 = continuously increasing global population and more regionally

oriented economic growth that is the slowest ong>ofong> all the storylines… medium

global GDP growth, high global energy use, low oil & gas availability, slow

technological pace & direction toward coal & gas, high global population

growth, general description as heterogenic regionalism & less trade, general

development themes ong>ofong> self-reliance & preservation ong>ofong> local identities

– CGCM = Canadian Center for Modeling and Analysis’ Third Generation

Coupled Global Climate Model 3.1

17


Methods: EAB Modeling

(WUP)

(EUP)

(NLP)

(SLP)

18


Methods: EAB Modeling

(NC)

(NE)

(SE)

(W)

19


Methods: EAB Modeling

(NW)

(NE)

(C)

(SW)

(SE)

20


Results: forest land area

23


Results: tree volume

24


Results: all saplings & trees

25


Results: ash saplings & trees

26


Results: EAC saplings & trees

27


Results: EAC saplings & trees

28


Results: Michigan Species Composition

%change #stems 2010-2060

Forest type group

Standard model EAB model

Maple / beech / birch group -16 -15

Aspen / birch group -23 -32

Spruce / fir group -21 -28

Oak / hickory group -8 -18

Elm / ash / cottonwood group 1 -27

White / red / jack pine group 14 14

%change volume 2010-2060

Forest type group

Standard model EAB model

Maple / beech / birch group 8 6

Oak / hickory group 1 0

Spruce / fir group -6 -9

Aspen / birch group 2 -9

White / red / jack pine group 52 49

Elm / ash / cottonwood group -7 -28

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Results: Minnesota Species Composition

%change #stems 2010-2060

Forest type group

Standard model EAB model

Aspen / birch group -27 -35

Spruce / fir group -19 -22

Oak / hickory group -17 -12

Elm / ash / cottonwood group 71 -10

Maple / beech / birch group 4 -13

White / red / jack pine group 11 28

%change volume 2010-2060

Forest type group

Standard model EAB model

Aspen / birch group 48 44

Oak / hickory group -23 -8

Spruce / fir group 5 -3

Maple / beech / birch group -18 -26

Elm / ash / cottonwood group 115 39

White / red / jack pine group 21 23

30


Results: Wisconsin Species Composition

%change #stems 2010-2060

Forest type group

Standard model EAB model

Aspen / birch group -24 -37

Maple / beech / birch group -23 -26

Oak / hickory group -9 -9

Spruce / fir group -21 -28

Elm / ash / cottonwood group -20 -36

White / red / jack pine group 55 41

%change volume 2010-2060

Forest type group

Standard model EAB model

Oak / hickory group 4 7

Maple / beech / birch group -4 -7

Aspen / birch group 11 -1

White / red / jack pine group 126 114

Elm / ash / cottonwood group 23 2

Spruce / fir group 10 4

31


Discussion

• MN standard model projected increase in EAC

because ash increased from 2005-2010

• MI and WI standard models projected future

decreases in EAC because ash decreased from

2005-2010; in MI this may be partly due to EAB,

especially in SLP

32


Discussion

• In all three states, for both

– all saplings & trees

– EAC saplings & trees

EAB model projected initial decrease (EAB-caused

mortality) followed by gradual increase; eventually

EAB model mimicked standard model; may

indicate other (EAC) mesic species could increase

and eventually replace ash by filling gaps left by

ash tree mortality

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Discussion

(EAB model projects EAC increase in some MI & MN inv units)

• UP MI and NE MN: some ong>ofong> the highest ash

concentrations by inventory unit, but they are

sparsely populated and have abundant riparian

area protected by federal, state, or local

government; increases in other EAC species

make up for loss ong>ofong> ash

34


Discussion

• Potential replacements for ash in EAC forest

type group:

– American elm, red maple, river birch, sycamore,

cottonwood, willow, pecan, sugarberry, hackberry,

silver maple

– Between DED & EAB, there is less elm & ash, but

EAC contains more than just E, A, C; e.g., silver

maple, red maple, hackberry

• Potential replacements for ash on upland sites:

– Eastern white pine, northern red oak, cherry, yellowpoplar,

elm, black locust

35


Discussion

• EAB effects summarized for number and volume

ong>ofong> ash trees for broad categories:

– Forest type groups

– States & inventory units

• Important to consider geographic differences in

the composition ong>ofong> each forest type group (EAC

mostly green & black, OH mostly white)

• Modeling may not apply to urban areas not

measured by FIA, where there could be a larger

impact due to extensive distribution ong>ofong> urban ash

36


Conclusions

(EAB model #saplings & trees eventually mimics standard model; may catch up in future)

• Transition from ash may take some time even

with 100% ash mortality

ong>Ashong> forests may eventually recover as:

ong>Ashong> is replaced by a variety ong>ofong> species

– Future forests may contain less saplings

& trees but more volume on less land

• EAB infestation could lead to canopy gaps that

facilitate increases in invasive 37 plant species


Conclusions

• Small-scale: private landowners can protect

individual trees with TREE-äge ® (Emamectin

Benzoate) & imidacloprid

• Time exists for forest products industry reliant on

ash to shift to other species (private landowners affected most)

• Wildlife generally not dependent on ash but

benefits from a variety ong>ofong> species in EAC

38


Acknowledgments

• Mark Hansen (PLSQL, FIADB)

• Mark Nelson (ArcGIS)

• Katie LaJeunesse (NFFP)

• David Cappaert, Michigan State University;

Pennsylvania Department ong>ofong> Conservation and Natural

Resources, Forestry Archive; Bugwood.org (some slide

photos)

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