NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center
NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center
NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center
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ILWS Delegate Presentation – <strong>NOAA</strong> <strong>Space</strong><br />
<strong>Weather</strong> <strong>Prediction</strong> <strong>Center</strong><br />
Terry Onsager<br />
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration<br />
<strong>Space</strong> <strong>Weather</strong> <strong>Prediction</strong> <strong>Center</strong>
Growth in Subscribers to <strong>Space</strong> <strong>Weather</strong> <br />
Products <br />
Sunspot Number<br />
Subscrip)on <br />
service began <br />
Customers Include:<br />
All major airlines<br />
Drilling and oil exploration<br />
Satellite companies<br />
Transportation sector<br />
Emergency responders<br />
Number of Subscribers
Interna6onal and U.S. Subscribers to <strong>NOAA</strong>’s <br />
<strong>Space</strong> <strong>Weather</strong> Products <br />
35000 <br />
30000 <br />
International and U.S. Subscribers to <strong>NOAA</strong>'s<br />
<strong>Space</strong> <strong>Weather</strong> Products<br />
Number of Subscribers<br />
25000 <br />
20000 <br />
15000 <br />
10000 <br />
International Subscribers<br />
U.S. Subscribers<br />
5000 <br />
0 <br />
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 8/2012
Major Forecast <strong>Center</strong> Products<br />
• Long lead-time forecasts (1 to > 3 days)<br />
• Short-term warnings (notice of imminent storm)<br />
• Alerts and Specifications (current conditions)<br />
<strong>Space</strong> <strong>Weather</strong> Category:<br />
• X-ray flares<br />
• Solar energetic particle events<br />
• Geomagnetic storms<br />
• Radiation belt electron enhancements<br />
• Ionospheric disturbances<br />
• Solar radio flux
Real-Time Observations are the Foundation for<br />
Products and Services<br />
NASA STEREO<br />
(Ahead)<br />
Challenge: Coordinating global data planning,<br />
acquisition, and dissemination<br />
• ACE (NASA)<br />
– Solar wind speed,<br />
density, temperature<br />
and energetic particles<br />
– Vector Magnetic field<br />
• SOHO (ESA/NASA)<br />
– Solar EUV Images<br />
– Solar Corona<br />
(CMEs)<br />
ESA/NASA SOHO<br />
NASA ACE<br />
<strong>NOAA</strong> GOES<br />
• Ground Sites<br />
– Magnetometers<br />
– Riometers and Neutron<br />
monitors<br />
– Telescopes and Magnetographs<br />
– Ionosondes<br />
– GNSS<br />
• COSMIC II<br />
(Taiwan/<strong>NOAA</strong>)<br />
– Ionospheric Electron<br />
Density Profiles<br />
– Ionospheric<br />
Scintillation<br />
• STEREO (NASA)<br />
– Solar Corona<br />
– Solar EUV Images<br />
– Solar wind<br />
– Vector Magnetic field<br />
Satellite Observations for<br />
NASA<br />
Future<br />
STEREO<br />
<strong>Space</strong> <strong>Weather</strong><br />
(Behind)<br />
Forecasting<br />
• GOES (<strong>NOAA</strong>)<br />
– Energetic Particles<br />
– Magnetic Field<br />
– Solar X-ray Flux<br />
– Solar EUV Flux<br />
– Solar X-Ray Images<br />
5<br />
<strong>NOAA</strong> POES<br />
• POES (<strong>NOAA</strong>)<br />
– High Energy Particles<br />
– Total Energy Deposition<br />
– Solar UV Flux
Deep <strong>Space</strong> Climate Observatory (DSCOVR) <br />
Solar Wind Mission <br />
• The DSCOVR spacecraS will be refurbished and <br />
readied for launch in November, 2014 <br />
• Refurbishment of satellite and Plas-‐Mag sensor is <br />
being performed at NASA/GSFC under reimbursement <br />
by <strong>NOAA</strong> <br />
• USAF plans to launch on <strong>Space</strong>-‐X Falcon 9 (Version <br />
1.1) <br />
• All data will be downlinked to the Real Time Solar <br />
Wind Network (RTSWnet) <br />
• Expected opera6onal date: June, 2015
Compact Coronagraph (CCOR) <br />
• Naval Research Laboratory completed a <strong>NOAA</strong>-‐funded Phase A study for a <br />
demonstra6on compact coronagraph <br />
• CCOR is a reduced mass, volume, and cost coronagraph design <br />
– 6 kg telescope, 17 kg for sensor <br />
– Op6cal train is 1/3 the length of tradi6onal coronagraph designs <br />
• CCOR launch opportuni6es are being inves6gated
Sunjammer – Solar Sail Mission <br />
• Sunjammer will fly to 2xL1, then out of the ecliptic -<br />
Launch in late 2014/early 2015<br />
• Technology demonstration for the sail and for<br />
making measurements in the presence of a sail<br />
• <strong>NOAA</strong> partnered with L’Garde to provide tracking<br />
and to procure a payload<br />
• Imperial College London will provide magnetometer<br />
• University College London/MSSL will provide a<br />
charged particle spectrometer<br />
• SWPC will assist in evaluating the data and will<br />
potentially use the data operationally
COSMIC 2 <br />
• Joint Taiwan-U.S. 12-satellite constellation<br />
• GNSS Radio-Occultation measurements – GPS, Galileo, and GLONASS<br />
• 6 low-inclination and 6 high-inclination satellites<br />
• First launch (6 low-inclination) planned for 2016<br />
• <strong>NOAA</strong> is working with international partners to host/operated datareceiving<br />
ground stations<br />
• Mission will acquire more than 8000 ionospheric soundings per day
Components of <strong>NOAA</strong>’s Numerical <strong>Space</strong> <br />
<strong>Weather</strong> Modeling Effort <br />
Solar /Solar Wind<br />
Magnetosphere/<br />
Ionosphere<br />
Atmosphere/<br />
Ionosphere<br />
L1 Satellite Location – ACE and Future DSCOVR
Determining the Ini6al Proper6es of CMEs is <br />
Important for Predic6ng Their Arrival <br />
WSA-Enlil Model of Background Solar Wind<br />
SOHO LASCO Coronagraph<br />
STEREO-A<br />
Ecliptic Plane<br />
Sun<br />
Earth<br />
NASA STEREO Coronagraph<br />
STEREO-B<br />
D. Odstrcil
Coronagraph Data and CME Fieng Tool are <br />
Used to Es6mate Ini6al CME Velocity <br />
G. Millward, SWPC and University of Colorado
CME <strong>Prediction</strong>s Improve Forecasts of<br />
Geomagnetic Storms<br />
1 – 4 day advance warning of large storms<br />
Density<br />
Ecliptic Plane<br />
Azimuthal Plane<br />
Wang-Sheeley-Arge<br />
(WSA)/Enlil<br />
(Dusan Odstrcil)<br />
Kp index <br />
geomagne6c <br />
ac6vity <br />
G. Millward, Univ. of Colorado/SWPC
Challenges to Overcome in Predic6ng CME <br />
Arrival Time and Impacts <br />
• Satellite-based measurements of Coronal Mass Ejections<br />
• Improved techniques for initializing the background solar wind model<br />
• Improved techniques for initializing the CME model<br />
• Characterization of the internal magnetic field structure within CMEs<br />
Pizzo<br />
D. Odstrcil<br />
Lugaz et al, 2007
Components of <strong>NOAA</strong>’s Numerical <strong>Space</strong> <br />
<strong>Weather</strong> Modeling Effort <br />
Solar /Solar Wind<br />
Magnetosphere/<br />
Ionosphere<br />
Atmosphere/<br />
Ionosphere<br />
L1 Satellite Location – ACE and Future DSCOVR
Electric Power Impacts – October, 2003 <br />
Sweden:<br />
- Power outage<br />
- Transformer heating in<br />
nuclear plant<br />
United States:<br />
- Power reduced at nuclear<br />
facilities to mitigate impacts<br />
South Africa:<br />
- 14 transformers damaged<br />
- $60 million impact<br />
- Basic commerce and security impaired
Regional Predic6ons of Geomagne6c <br />
Disturbances <br />
• Current forecasts do not resolve regional differences in activity<br />
• Evaluation of geomagnetic activity models is occurring – involving<br />
<strong>NOAA</strong>, CCMC, MHD modelers, and empirical modelers<br />
• Transition to operations could begin in 2013<br />
Kp - Global Measure of<br />
Geomagnetic Activity<br />
G. Millward
Components of <strong>NOAA</strong>’s Numerical <strong>Space</strong> <br />
<strong>Weather</strong> Modeling Effort <br />
Solar /Solar Wind<br />
Magnetosphere/<br />
Ionosphere<br />
Atmosphere/<br />
Ionosphere<br />
L1 Satellite Location – ACE and Future DSCOVR
Ionospheric Disturbances Occur at All<br />
Latitudes<br />
• Ionospheric disturbances create communication, navigation, positioning,<br />
and timing errors and loss of signal.<br />
• Highest occurrence frequency is at low and high latitudes. During large<br />
storms, disturbances extend into mid latitudes.<br />
Scintillation Occurrence<br />
Frequency<br />
Frequent<br />
Infrequent<br />
Kintner et al., 2009
Ionosphere is Driven both from<br />
<strong>Space</strong> and from the Atmosphere
Coupling of Atmospheric Dynamic to the <br />
Ionosphere System <br />
Model development includes collaboration with UK researchers and the UK Met Office<br />
Whole Atmosphere Model (WAM = Extended GFS) <br />
Ionosphere Plasmasphere Electrodynamics (IPE) <br />
Integrated Dynamics in Earth’s Atmosphere (IDEA = WAM+IPE) <br />
Ionosphere Plasmasphere<br />
Electrodynamics (IPE) Model<br />
Plasmasphere<br />
WAM: Neutral<br />
Atmosphere<br />
0 – 600 km<br />
Ionosphere<br />
GFS<br />
0 – 60 km<br />
Stratosphere<br />
Troposphere<br />
Thermosphere<br />
Mesosphere<br />
WAM<br />
R. Viereck, <strong>NOAA</strong>/SWPC
Addi6onal Areas Where Research Advances <br />
are Needed <br />
• Solar Active Region Eruption<br />
- Probability of near-term eruption of solar<br />
active region<br />
- Probability of intense flare x-rays<br />
- Probability of energetic particle acceleration<br />
• Radiation environment at Earth<br />
- Probability of solar energetic particles<br />
- Probability of intense electron radiation belts
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