Farmer 3 - Ideal.forestry.ubc.ca

ideal.forestry.ubc.ca

Farmer 3 - Ideal.forestry.ubc.ca

SUSTAINABILITY SIMULATION

Farmer Three

3 0 0


1

OVERVIEW

The simulation is comprised of the following eight stakeholders:







a zinc mining company,

a forestry company that currently only focuses on timber production but is thinking of expanding

its business into mills and biofuel pellet plants,

three commercial farming businesses that compete with each other in both conventional and

organic markets,

a fishing tourism company that sells three different fishing options: rod and reel, fly fishing and

remote experiences,

a hydroelectric company that produces electricity for the province, that also manages reservoir

and river water levels,

and an environmental group (eNGO) that monitors water quality and aquifer levels

CONTEXT

The region has a sub-tropical climate and is known for its vast lands of forested areas and is a mecca

for fishing. However, the region is facing multiple challenges. The economy is struggling with 12%

unemployment rates and low paying salaries. The local aquifer is being depleted and water quality is

quickly deteriorating. Tensions and emotions are running high in the society as different interest groups

focus on competing interests. The international food market has created a lot of competition between

farmers as each tries different strategies to stay competitive in the marketplace. The tourism fishing

company is struggling to maintain satisfied customers as fish catches decline due to deteriorating water

quality. The hydro company is concerned with the increasing soil sediments being deposited at the

bottom of the dam reducing the reservoir capacity, as well as, the decreasing rains that are challenging

the profitability of the enterprise. The forestry and mining companies are new to the area and are

operating at reduced capacity because they are concerned with the pressure that the international

environmental NGO watch dog can place on market prices via boycott campaigns.

The challenges of the region are creating pervasive conflicts as the tension between economic, social

and environmental interests rise. Meteorologists forecast that the climate will become drier because of

the regional impacts of climate change.

TIMELINE

Time Activity Year

Before lab Review history

2001-2010

Period 1 decisions

First 10 minutes Setup and review

15 minutes Period 2 decisions 2011-2013

15 minutes Period 3 decisions 2014-2016

20 minutes Public Forum

10 minutes Period 4 decisions 2017-2020

20 minutes Public Forum

10 minutes Period 6 decisions 2021-2030

15 minutes Discussion


3

FARMER THREE

You are one of three farms that are competing against each other in the market. The last decade has

seen a 3% growth per year in global agricultural production that has contributed to the competitive

market you are facing. To your advantage it is forecasted that the global agricultural production growth

is projected to slow to 1.7 per cent a year, as higher energy and fertiliser costs temper expansion.

Your farm has been quite profitable in the last decade and your immediate concerns are more local, as

you have noticed that the water in the river has been in constant decline in the past decade. The

productivity of your crops are directly influenced by how well they are irrigated. The local rains have not

been able to supply all your water needs and all farmers have resorted to pumping water out of the river

and requesting water from the local aquifer.

Water quotas are allocated every year for the aquifer and you need to decide at the beginning of each

year how much of your water needs will be pulled out of the aquifer. There are no regulations on how

much water you can pull out of the aquifer. (Note: to keep the mathematical calculation simple a ratio of

river/well use of ‘0’ means all your water needs are pulled out of the river, a ratio of ‘1’ means all your

water needs are pulled from the aquifer). However, keep in mind that the aquifer can be depleted if you

pull too much water from it year after year.

The table is a rough estimate of the income you will receive planting different crops, as well as the jobs

created, and water and pesticide use that they require. (Note: organic farming does not use pesticides).

Crop

$/acre

conventional

Jobs

conventional

(per 100

acres)

$/acre

organic

Jobs

organic

(per 100

acres)

water

/acre

(m3)

Pesticide

Use

Cotton $ 300 2.0 $ 210 1 2535 High

Corn $ 180 1.5 $ 288 1 489 Low

Soy $ 240 2.5 $ 225 1 1869 Medium

Wheat $ 150 1.5 $ 294 1 849 Low

In each yearly cycle you will have to decide what crops to plant in the 7,000 acres that you own, the

ratio of river/well water use and the salary you will pay your employees. You can switch from organic to

conventional every year without any limitations. However, you cannot farm the same conventional and

organic crop in the same year.

Objectives

Your group represents an extended family that manages the farm, and as managers of the farm you

have multiple objectives to meet:



Increase the productivity of your farm (dependant on water allocation and rain patterns)

Come up with adequate strategies of what crops to farm so you can sell them all in the market

place


For each decision period you will receive two pages similar to the ones below. These pages chart your previous decisions, as well as

provide you with useful indicators that will aid you in making decision for the next decision period. In each decision period you will fill in the

boxes with your decision and hand it in to your instructors. Five minutes later you will receive a summary page back with blank decision

boxes that you will need to fill in again for the next year.

4

The three charts on this page

keep track of all your previous

decisions. For the first ten

years of the simulation the

decisions were kept constant.

Chart one: Amount of

acres allocated to

conventional crops

Chart two: Amount of

acres allocated to organic

crops

Chart three: Ratio of

river/well use and salary

of employees

1 2

1

In this area you need to

notate what crops you

would like to plant on the

following year.

The blue boxes tell you

what you planted the

previous year

3

The top box informs you

of the height of the local

aquifer. The highest

amount is 40, the lowest

is 0.

1

In these two boxes you need to notate the ratio

of river water use vs well use. You also need to

decide on the salary wage of your employees

The bottom box gives you

three sustainability

readings for the whole

region. The scale goes

from:

10 – excellent to 0 – bad.


5

These four charts provide you with the

following indicators:


Chart four: : Amount of total capital

and yearly profit your farm makes


Chart five: Rainfall amount,

percentage of the amount of water

that you requested from the river

that was successfully met, the same

percentage for the well, overall

productivity of your farm

4

1

5

1



Chart six: tells you the percentage

of each crop that was successfully

sold in the conventional market

Chart seven: tells you the

percentage of each crop that was

successfully sold in the organic

market

6

7

1

1

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