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ASTR<br />

115<br />

03/12/13<br />

“Why does a volcanic eruption sometimes create lightning Pictured above, the Sakurajima volcano in southern Japan was caught erupting<br />

in early January. Magma bubbles so hot they glow shoot away as liquid rock bursts through the Earth's surface from below. The above image<br />

is particularly notable, however, for the lightning bolts caught near the volcano's summit. Why lightning occurs even in common<br />

thunderstorms remains a topic of research, and the cause of volcanic lightning is even less clear. Surely, lightning bolts help quench areas of<br />

opposite but separated electric charges. One hypothesis holds that catapulting magma bubbles or volcanic ash are themselves electrically<br />

charged, and by their motion create these separated areas. Other volcanic lightning episodes may be facilitated by charge-inducing collisions<br />

in volcanic dust. Lightning is usually occurring somewhere on Earth, typically over 40 times each second.”<br />

http://apod.nasa.gov/apod/ap130311.html<br />

Tuesday, March 12, 13<br />

1


“Is our Milky Way Galaxy out to lunch Recent wide field images and analyses now indicate that our home galaxy is actually still in the<br />

process of devouring its closest satellite neighbor. This unfortunate neighbor, the Sagittarius Dwarf galaxy, is now seen to be part of a larger<br />

Sagittarius Tidal Stream, a loose filament of stars, gas, and possibly dark matter that entangles the Milky Way. An artist's depiction of the<br />

stream is shown above. Speculation also holds that the Sagittarius Dwarf was once pulled through the Milky Way disk very close to our<br />

Sun's current location. An important resulting realization is that galaxies contain a jumble of clumps and filaments of both dim and dark<br />

matter.”<br />

http://apod.nasa.gov/apod/ap030930.html<br />

Tuesday, March 12, 13<br />

2


SCHEDULE CHANGES<br />

•The extra credit movie is now on Wednesday at 5:45-7:30pm.<br />

•The extra credit poster session at Edmonds may be changed to this<br />

Thursday at 6:15pm in stead of next Tuesday. This is still up in the air,<br />

so I will update the webpage on Wednesday with any changes.<br />

Tuesday, March 12, 13<br />

3


WHAT ARE QUASARS<br />

Tuesday, March 12, 13<br />

4


If the center of a<br />

galaxy is unusually<br />

bright, we call it an<br />

active galactic<br />

nucleus.<br />

Quasars are the<br />

most luminous<br />

examples.<br />

Active nucleus in Galaxy M87<br />

Tuesday, March 12, 13<br />

5


http://apod.nasa.gov/apod/ap100529.html<br />

“Violent galaxy mergers can feed supermassive black holes. Theoretically, the result is intense emission from regions near the supermassive black holes,<br />

creating the some of the most luminous objects in the universe. Astronomers dub these Active Galactic Nuclei, or just AGN. But for decades only about 1<br />

percent of AGN seemed to be associated with galaxy mergers. New results from a premier sky survey by NASA's Swift satellite at hard (energetic) X-ray<br />

energies now solidly show a strong association of AGN with merging galaxies, though. The hard X-rays more readily penetrate dust and gas clouds in merging<br />

galaxies and reveal the presence of emission from the active black holes. In fact, these panels show the location (circled) of Swift X-ray detected supermassive<br />

black holes in a variety of merging galaxy systems. The optical images are from the Kitt Peak National Observatory in Arizona. At top center is NGC 7319<br />

and the compact galaxy group known as Stephan's Quintet.”<br />

Tuesday, March 12, 13<br />

6


The highly redshifted spectra of quasars indicate large distances.<br />

From brightness and distance we find that luminosities of some<br />

quasars are greater than 10 12 L Sun .<br />

Variability shows that all this energy comes from a region smaller<br />

than our solar system.<br />

Tuesday, March 12, 13<br />

7


THOUGHT QUESTION<br />

What can you conclude from the fact that quasars usually<br />

have very large redshifts<br />

A. They are generally very distant.<br />

B. They were more common early in time.<br />

C. Galaxy collisions might turn them on.<br />

D. Nearby galaxies might hold dead quasars.<br />

Tuesday, March 12, 13<br />

8


THOUGHT QUESTION<br />

What can you conclude from the fact that quasars usually<br />

have very large redshifts<br />

A. They are generally very distant.<br />

B. They were more common early in time.<br />

C. Galaxy collisions might turn them on.<br />

D. Nearby galaxies might hold dead quasars.<br />

All of the above!<br />

Tuesday, March 12, 13<br />

9


Galaxies around<br />

quasars<br />

sometimes<br />

appear<br />

disturbed by<br />

collisions.<br />

Tuesday, March 12, 13<br />

10


Quasars powerfully radiate energy over a wide range of<br />

wavelengths, indicating that they contain matter with a wide<br />

range of temperatures.<br />

Tuesday, March 12, 13<br />

11


Radio galaxies contain active nuclei shooting out vast jets of<br />

plasma that emits radio waves coming from electrons that move<br />

at near light speed.<br />

Tuesday, March 12, 13<br />

12


The lobes of radio galaxies can extend over hundreds of<br />

thousands of light-years.<br />

Tuesday, March 12, 13<br />

13


An active galactic<br />

nucleus can shoot<br />

out blobs of plasma<br />

moving at nearly the<br />

speed of light.<br />

These ejection<br />

speeds suggests the<br />

presence of a black<br />

hole.<br />

Tuesday, March 12, 13<br />

14


Radio galaxies<br />

don’t appear as<br />

quasars because<br />

dusty gas clouds<br />

block our view<br />

of the accretion<br />

disk.<br />

Tuesday, March 12, 13<br />

15


CHARACTERISTICS OF<br />

ACTIVE GALAXIES<br />

•Their luminosities can be enormous (>10 12 L Sun ).<br />

•Their luminosities can rapidly vary (come from a space<br />

smaller than solar system).<br />

•They emit energy over a wide range of wavelengths (contain<br />

matter with a wide temperature range).<br />

•Some galaxies drive jets of plasma at near light speed.<br />

Tuesday, March 12, 13<br />

16


WHAT IS THE POWER SOURCE FOR QUASARS<br />

AND OTHER ACTIVE GALACTIC NUCLEI<br />

Tuesday, March 12, 13<br />

17


Accretion of gas onto a supermassive black hole appears to be<br />

the only way to explain all the properties of quasars.<br />

Tuesday, March 12, 13<br />

18


ENERGY FROM A BLACK HOLE<br />

•Gravitational potential energy of matter falling into black hole turns<br />

into kinetic energy.<br />

•Friction in an accretion disk turns kinetic energy into thermal energy<br />

(heat).<br />

•Heat produces thermal radiation (photons).<br />

•This process can convert 10 to 40% of<br />

E = mc 2 into radiation.<br />

Tuesday, March 12, 13<br />

19


Jets are thought to come from twisting of magnetic field in the<br />

inner part of accretion disk.<br />

Tuesday, March 12, 13<br />

20


DO SUPERMASSIVE BLACK<br />

HOLES REALLY EXIST<br />

Tuesday, March 12, 13<br />

21


Orbits of stars at<br />

center of Milky<br />

Way stars<br />

indicate a black<br />

hole with mass of<br />

4 million M Sun .<br />

Tuesday, March 12, 13<br />

22


The orbital speed and distance of gas orbiting the center of<br />

Galaxy M87 indicate a black hole with mass of 3 billion M Sun .<br />

Tuesday, March 12, 13<br />

23


BLACK HOLES IN GALAXIES<br />

•Many nearby galaxies—perhaps all of them—have<br />

supermassive black holes at their centers.<br />

•These black holes seem to be dormant active galactic nuclei.<br />

•All galaxies may have passed through a quasar-like stage earlier<br />

in time.<br />

Tuesday, March 12, 13<br />

24


GALAXIES AND BLACK<br />

HOLES<br />

•The mass of a<br />

galaxy’s central<br />

black hole is<br />

closely related to<br />

the mass of its<br />

bulge.<br />

Tuesday, March 12, 13<br />

25


GALAXIES AND BLACK<br />

HOLES<br />

•The development of<br />

the central black<br />

hole must be<br />

somehow related to<br />

galaxy evolution.<br />

Tuesday, March 12, 13<br />

26


HOW DO QUASARS LET US<br />

STUDY GAS BETWEEN THE<br />

GALAXIES<br />

Tuesday, March 12, 13<br />

27


Gas clouds between a quasar and Earth absorb some of the<br />

quasar’s light.<br />

We can learn about protogalactic clouds by studying the<br />

absorption lines they produce in quasar spectra.<br />

Tuesday, March 12, 13<br />

28


CHAPTER 22<br />

DARK MATTER, DARK ENERGY,<br />

AND THE FATE OF THE UNIVERSE<br />

Tuesday, March 12, 13<br />

29


WHAT DO WE MEAN BY DARK<br />

MATTER AND DARK ENERGY<br />

Tuesday, March 12, 13<br />

30


UNSEEN INFLUENCES<br />

<strong>Dark</strong> <strong>Matter</strong>: An undetected form of mass that emits little or no light,<br />

but whose existence we infer from its gravitational influence<br />

<strong>Dark</strong> Energy: An unknown form of energy that seems to be the<br />

source of a repulsive force causing the expansion of the universe to<br />

accelerate<br />

Tuesday, March 12, 13<br />

31


CONTENTS OF UNIVERSE<br />

•“Ordinary” matter: ~ 4.4%<br />

•Ordinary matter inside stars: ~ 0.6%<br />

•Ordinary matter outside stars: ~ 3.8%<br />

•<strong>Dark</strong> matter: ~ 23%<br />

•<strong>Dark</strong> energy ~ 73%<br />

Tuesday, March 12, 13<br />

32


WHAT IS THE EVIDENCE FOR DARK<br />

MATTER IN GALAXIES<br />

Tuesday, March 12, 13<br />

33


We measure the<br />

mass of the solar<br />

system using the<br />

orbits of planets:<br />

• orbital period<br />

• average distance<br />

For circles:<br />

• orbital velocity<br />

• orbital radius<br />

Tuesday, March 12, 13<br />

34


Rotation curve<br />

A plot of orbital<br />

velocity versus<br />

orbital radius<br />

The solar system’s<br />

rotation curve<br />

declines because<br />

the Sun has almost<br />

all the mass.<br />

Tuesday, March 12, 13<br />

35


Who has the<br />

largest orbital<br />

velocity<br />

A, B, or C<br />

Tuesday, March 12, 13<br />

36


Who has the<br />

largest orbital<br />

velocity<br />

A, B, or C<br />

Answer: C<br />

Tuesday, March 12, 13<br />

37


The rotation<br />

curve of a<br />

merry-go-round<br />

rises with<br />

radius.<br />

Tuesday, March 12, 13<br />

38


The rotation<br />

curve of the<br />

Milky Way stays<br />

flat with distance.<br />

Mass must be<br />

more spread out<br />

than in the solar<br />

system.<br />

Tuesday, March 12, 13<br />

39


Mass in the Milky<br />

Way is spread<br />

out over a larger<br />

region than its<br />

stars.<br />

Most of the Milky<br />

Way’s mass<br />

seems to be<br />

dark matter!<br />

Tuesday, March 12, 13<br />

40


Mass within the Sun’s<br />

orbit:<br />

1.0 × 10 11 M Sun<br />

Total mass:<br />

~10 12 M Sun<br />

Tuesday, March 12, 13<br />

41


The visible<br />

portion of a<br />

galaxy lies<br />

deep in the<br />

heart of a<br />

large halo of<br />

dark matter.<br />

Tuesday, March 12, 13<br />

42


We can<br />

measure the<br />

rotation<br />

curves of<br />

other spiral<br />

galaxies using<br />

the Doppler<br />

shift of the<br />

21-cm line of<br />

atomic<br />

hydrogen.<br />

Tuesday, March 12, 13<br />

43


Spiral galaxies all tend to have flat rotation curves, indicating<br />

large amounts of dark matter.<br />

Tuesday, March 12, 13<br />

44


Broadening of<br />

spectral lines in<br />

elliptical galaxies tells<br />

us how fast the stars<br />

are orbiting.<br />

These galaxies also<br />

have dark matter.<br />

Tuesday, March 12, 13<br />

45


THOUGHT QUESTION<br />

What would you conclude about a galaxy whose<br />

rotational velocity rises steadily with distance beyond<br />

the visible part of its disk<br />

A. Its mass is concentrated at the center.<br />

B. It rotates like the solar system.<br />

C. It’s especially rich in dark matter.<br />

D. It’s just like the Milky Way.<br />

Tuesday, March 12, 13<br />

46


THOUGHT QUESTION<br />

What would you conclude about a galaxy whose<br />

rotational velocity rises steadily with distance beyond<br />

the visible part of its disk<br />

A. Its mass is concentrated at the center.<br />

B. It rotates like the solar system.<br />

C. It’s especially rich in dark matter.<br />

D. It’s just like the Milky Way.<br />

Tuesday, March 12, 13<br />

47


WHAT IS THE EVIDENCE FOR DARK<br />

MATTER IN CLUSTERS OF GALAXIES<br />

Tuesday, March 12, 13<br />

48


We can measure<br />

the velocities of<br />

galaxies in a<br />

cluster from their<br />

Doppler shifts.<br />

Tuesday, March 12, 13<br />

49


The mass we find<br />

from galaxy<br />

motions in a<br />

cluster is about 50<br />

times larger than<br />

the mass in stars!<br />

Tuesday, March 12, 13<br />

50


Clusters contain large<br />

amounts of X rayemitting<br />

hot gas.<br />

Temperature of hot gas<br />

(particle motions) tells<br />

us cluster mass:<br />

85% dark matter<br />

13% hot gas<br />

2% stars<br />

Tuesday, March 12, 13<br />

51


Gravitational lensing, the bending of light rays by gravity, can<br />

also tell us a cluster’s mass.<br />

Tuesday, March 12, 13<br />

52


Tuesday, March 12, 13<br />

53


All three methods of measuring cluster mass indicate similar<br />

amounts of dark matter in galaxy clusters.<br />

Tuesday, March 12, 13<br />

54


THOUGHT QUESTION<br />

What kind of measurement does not tell us the mass of a<br />

cluster of galaxies<br />

A. measuring velocities of cluster galaxies<br />

B. measuring the total mass of cluster’s stars<br />

C. measuring the temperature of its hot gas<br />

D. measuring distorted images of background galaxies<br />

Tuesday, March 12, 13<br />

55


THOUGHT QUESTION<br />

What kind of measurement does not tell us the mass of a<br />

cluster of galaxies<br />

A. measuring velocities of cluster galaxies<br />

B. measuring the total mass of cluster’s stars<br />

C. measuring the temperature of its hot gas<br />

D. measuring distorted images of background galaxies<br />

Tuesday, March 12, 13<br />

56


DOES DARK MATTER<br />

REALLY EXIST<br />

Insert TCP 6e Figure 22.11<br />

unannotated<br />

Tuesday, March 12, 13<br />

57


OUR OPTIONS<br />

1. <strong>Dark</strong> matter really exists, and we are observing the effects of<br />

its gravitational attraction.<br />

2. Something is wrong with our understanding of gravity,<br />

causing us to mistakenly infer the existence of dark matter.<br />

Tuesday, March 12, 13<br />

58


OUR OPTIONS<br />

1. <strong>Dark</strong> matter really exists, and we are observing the effects of<br />

its gravitational attraction.<br />

2. Something is wrong with our understanding of gravity,<br />

causing us to mistakenly infer the existence of dark matter.<br />

Because gravity is so well tested, most astronomers prefer<br />

option #1.<br />

Tuesday, March 12, 13<br />

59


Some observations of the universe are very difficult to<br />

explain without dark matter.<br />

Tuesday, March 12, 13<br />

60


WHAT MIGHT DARK MATTER<br />

BE MADE OF<br />

Tuesday, March 12, 13<br />

61


HOW DARK IS DARK MATTER<br />

… NOT AS BRIGHT AS A STAR.<br />

Tuesday, March 12, 13<br />

62


TWO BASIC OPTIONS<br />

•Ordinary <strong>Dark</strong> <strong>Matter</strong> (MACHOS)<br />

•Massive Compact Halo Objects:<br />

dead or failed stars in halos of galaxies<br />

•Extraordinary <strong>Dark</strong> <strong>Matter</strong> (WIMPS)<br />

•Weakly Interacting Massive Particles:<br />

mysterious neutrino-like particles<br />

Tuesday, March 12, 13<br />

63


TWO BASIC OPTIONS<br />

•Ordinary <strong>Dark</strong> <strong>Matter</strong> (MACHOS)<br />

•Massive Compact Halo Objects:<br />

dead or failed stars in halos of galaxies<br />

•Extraordinary <strong>Dark</strong> <strong>Matter</strong> (WIMPS)<br />

•Weakly Interacting Massive Particles:<br />

mysterious neutrino-like particles<br />

The<br />

best<br />

bet<br />

Tuesday, March 12, 13<br />

64


MACHOs<br />

occasionally make<br />

other stars appear<br />

brighter through<br />

lensing…<br />

… but there are<br />

not enough<br />

lensing events to<br />

explain all the<br />

dark matter.<br />

Tuesday, March 12, 13<br />

65


WHY BELIEVE IN WIMPS<br />

•There’s not enough ordinary matter.<br />

•WIMPs could be left over from Big Bang.<br />

•Models involving WIMPs explain how galaxy formation works.<br />

Tuesday, March 12, 13<br />

66


WHAT IS THE ROLE OF DARK MATTER<br />

IN GALAXY FORMATION<br />

Tuesday, March 12, 13<br />

67


Gravity of dark matter is what caused protogalactic clouds to<br />

contract early in time.<br />

Tuesday, March 12, 13<br />

68


Insert TCP 6e Figure 22.2<br />

WIMPs can’t<br />

collapse to the<br />

center because<br />

they don’t<br />

radiate away<br />

their orbital<br />

energy.<br />

Tuesday, March 12, 13<br />

69


<strong>Dark</strong> matter is still<br />

pulling things<br />

together.<br />

After correcting<br />

for Hubble’s law,<br />

we can see that<br />

galaxies are<br />

flowing toward<br />

the densest<br />

regions of space.<br />

Tuesday, March 12, 13<br />

70


WHAT ARE THE LARGEST STRUCTURES<br />

IN THE UNIVERSE<br />

Tuesday, March 12, 13<br />

71


Maps of galaxy positions reveal extremely large structures:<br />

superclusters and voids.<br />

Tuesday, March 12, 13<br />

72


Time in billions of years<br />

0.5 2.2 5.9 8.6 13.7<br />

13 35 70 93 140<br />

Size of expanding box in millions of light-years<br />

Models show that gravity of dark matter pulls mass into denser<br />

regions—the universe grows lumpier with time.<br />

Tuesday, March 12, 13<br />

73


Models show that gravity of dark matter pulls mass into denser<br />

regions—universe grows lumpier with time.<br />

Tuesday, March 12, 13<br />

74


Structures in galaxy maps look very similar to the ones found in<br />

models in which dark matter is WIMPs.<br />

Tuesday, March 12, 13<br />

75


“The latest map of the cosmos again indicates that dark matter and dark energy dominate our universe. The Sloan Digital Sky Survey<br />

(SDSS) is on its way to measuring the distances to over one million galaxies. Galaxies first identified on 2D images, like the one shown<br />

above on the right, have their distances measured to create the 3D map. The SDSS currently reports 3D information for over 200,000<br />

galaxies, now rivaling the 3D galaxy-count of the Two-Degree Field sky map. The latest SDSS map, shown above on the left, could only<br />

show the galaxy distribution it does if the universe was composed and evolved a certain way. After trying to match many candidate universes<br />

to it, the Cinderella universe that best fits the above map has 5% atoms, 25% dark matter, and 70% dark energy. Such a universe was<br />

previously postulated because its rapid recent expansion can explain why distant supernovas are so dim, and its early evolution can explain<br />

the spot distribution on the very distant cosmic microwave background.”<br />

http://apod.nasa.gov/apod/ap031028.html<br />

Tuesday, March 12, 13<br />

76


http://apod.nasa.gov/apod/ap070827.html<br />

“What has created this huge empty volume in the universe No one is yet sure, and even the extent of the estimated billion-light year void<br />

is being researched. The void is not a hole in space like a black hole, but rather a vast region of the universe that appears to be mostly<br />

devoid of normal matter and even dark matter. The void is still thought to contain dark energy, though, and is clearly traversable by light.<br />

The void's existence is being postulated following scientific curiosity about how unusually cold spots came to appear on WMAP's map of<br />

cosmic microwave background (CMB) radiation. One possibility was that this CMB region was not actually very cold but light from the<br />

spot somehow became more cosmologically redshifted than normal along the way. Other voids in the universe are known to exist, but this<br />

void appears to have an unusually large gravitational effect, and so might possibly be the largest in our entire visible universe.<br />

Investigating this, a recent study found an unusually low number of cosmic radio sources between Earth and the CMB cold spot, which<br />

led to the inference of this giant void. An artist's depiction of the huge cosmic void is shown above.”<br />

Tuesday, March 12, 13<br />

77


WILL THE UNIVERSE CONTINUE<br />

EXPANDING FOREVER<br />

Tuesday, March 12, 13<br />

78


Does the<br />

universe have<br />

enough kinetic<br />

energy to escape<br />

its own<br />

gravitational pull<br />

Tuesday, March 12, 13<br />

79


The fate of<br />

the universe<br />

depends on<br />

the amount of<br />

dark matter.<br />

Tuesday, March 12, 13<br />

80


Since the amount of dark<br />

matter is ~25% of the<br />

critical density, we expect<br />

the expansion of the<br />

universe to overcome its<br />

gravitational pull.<br />

Tuesday, March 12, 13<br />

81


In fact, the<br />

expansion appears<br />

to be speeding up!<br />

<strong>Dark</strong><br />

energy<br />

Tuesday, March 12, 13<br />

82


Estimated age depends on the amount of both dark matter<br />

and dark energy.<br />

Tuesday, March 12, 13<br />

83


THOUGHT QUESTION<br />

Suppose that the universe has more dark matter than we<br />

think there is today. How would this change the age<br />

we estimate from the expansion rate<br />

A. The estimated age would be larger.<br />

B. The estimated age would be the same.<br />

C. The estimated age would be smaller.<br />

Tuesday, March 12, 13<br />

84


THOUGHT QUESTION<br />

Suppose that the universe has more dark matter than we<br />

think there is today. How would this change the age<br />

we estimate from the expansion rate<br />

A. The estimated age would be larger.<br />

B. The estimated age would be the same.<br />

C. The estimated age would be smaller.<br />

Tuesday, March 12, 13<br />

85


IS THE EXPANSION OF THE<br />

UNIVERSE ACCELERATING<br />

Tuesday, March 12, 13<br />

86


Insert TCP 6e Figure 20.14<br />

The brightness of distant white dwarf supernovae tells us how<br />

much the universe has expanded since they exploded.<br />

Tuesday, March 12, 13<br />

87


An accelerating universe best fits the supernova data.<br />

Tuesday, March 12, 13<br />

88


http://apod.nasa.gov/apod/ap071021.html<br />

“How will our universe end Recent<br />

speculation now includes a pervasive growing<br />

field of mysterious repulsive phantom energy<br />

that rips virtually everything apart. Although<br />

the universe started with a Big Bang, analysis<br />

of cosmological measurements allows a<br />

possibility that it will end with a Big Rip. As<br />

soon as few billion years from now, the<br />

controversial scenario holds, dark energy will<br />

grow to such a magnitude that our own Galaxy<br />

will no longer be able to hold itself together.<br />

After that, stars, planets, and then even atoms<br />

might not be able to withstand the expansive<br />

internal force. Previously, speculation on the<br />

ultimate fate of the universe centered on either<br />

a re-collapsing Big Crunch or a Big Freeze.<br />

Although the universe's fate is still a puzzle,<br />

piecing it together will likely follow from an<br />

increased understanding of the nature of dark<br />

matter and dark energy.”<br />

Tuesday, March 12, 13<br />

89


NOW -- TO IMPORTANT<br />

MATTERS<br />

HOW COULD ASTRONOMICAL EVENTS<br />

KILL ALL LIFE ON EARTH<br />

(NOTE: APPROPRIATE FOR ALL AGES, AND NOT SOMETHING TO<br />

LOSE ANY SLEEP OVER)<br />

Tuesday, March 12, 13<br />

90


IN NO PARTICULAR ORDER (IGNORING<br />

HUMANITIES OWN ATTEMPTS TO DESTROY<br />

LIFE ON EARTH)<br />

•Killer asteroid<br />

•Volcanoes<br />

•Gamma-ray burst<br />

•Supernova explosion<br />

•Super solar flares<br />

•Earth’s magnetic field flipping<br />

•Sun’s temperature increases to the point that Earth is no longer in the<br />

habitable zone.<br />

•Galactic collision<br />

Tuesday, March 12, 13<br />

91


KILLER ASTEROIDS<br />

•Small impacts happen<br />

almost daily.<br />

•Impacts large enough to<br />

cause mass extinctions<br />

happen many millions of<br />

years apart.<br />

•Bigger than 10km, and<br />

all humans at least will<br />

die.<br />

In about 1.7 million years, Giliese 710 is predicted to pass within 1.1 light<br />

years of our Sun.<br />

Tuesday, March 12, 13<br />

92


SUPER VOLCANOS<br />

•A super volcano eruption is considered to be ten times more likely in<br />

the (near) future than a killer asteroid impact.<br />

•Yellowstone erupts approximately every 600,000 years.<br />

•Last eruption: 640,000 years ago...<br />

•Yellowstone is a 34 mile by 45 mile active volcanic caldera.<br />

•Volcanic ash could block most of the sunlight across the entire<br />

planet for years. (volcanic winter)<br />

•Could even trigger a runaway greenhouse effect.<br />

Tuesday, March 12, 13<br />

93


NEARBY SUPERNOVA<br />

EXPLOSION<br />

•While theorists disagree on the exact number, typically they say that if<br />

a supernova occurred within 30 light-years of us (assuming the jet is<br />

not pointed at us) then mass extinctions could occur here on Earth.<br />

•The closest star expected to go supernova any time soon is 500 light<br />

years away. At that distance, even if the jet was pointed at us it is<br />

unlikely to do more than perhaps cause some technology issues<br />

(those sensitive satellites).<br />

Tuesday, March 12, 13<br />

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GAMMA-RAY BURST<br />

•To see a gamma-ray burst, the jet has to be pointed directly at us.<br />

•At about 1000 lightyears it would be as bright as our Sun (in visible<br />

light).<br />

•Even at that distance they could cook the atmosphere, creating nitrous<br />

oxides that would destroy the ozone layer. Without the ozone layer, it<br />

would only be a matter of time until we died from the radiation of<br />

our own Sun.<br />

•If it was closer, the effects could kill us even faster.<br />

•BUT, there are no known progenitors of gamma-ray bursts in our part<br />

of the galaxy.<br />

Tuesday, March 12, 13<br />

95


SUPER SOLAR FLARES<br />

•Some tentative evidence that they can happen on sun-like stars. (They<br />

briefly brightened by a factor of 20.)<br />

•But stars tend to become less active as they age.<br />

•The flare would also have to be aimed at Earth.<br />

•Within a few hours the super solar flare could fry the side of Earth<br />

facing the sun, and destroy the ozone layer (so even on the night-side<br />

of the planet you would eventually die).<br />

Tuesday, March 12, 13<br />

96


EARTH’S MAGNETIC FIELD<br />

FLIPPING<br />

•Obviously, this will not kill all life on earth, but it could kill humanity, or<br />

at least our current civilization.<br />

•On average it flips every 250,000 years (but it could occur on<br />

timescales of 100’s of years).<br />

•It’s been 780,000 years since the last reversal.<br />

•For some length of time during the flip, the Earth has no magnetic<br />

field (days/months/years/decades we have no idea).<br />

•During this time we would have no protection from the solar<br />

wind.<br />

Tuesday, March 12, 13<br />

97


GALACTIC COLLISION<br />

•Andromeda is heading toward the Milky way at about 140 km/s (87<br />

miles/sec)<br />

•Impact expected in about 3 billion years.<br />

•May or may not cause difficulties here in our solar system.<br />

•Close encounters with other stars could modify the orbits of all or<br />

some (Jupiter) of the planets.<br />

•Don’t worry though, we’ll be dead by then :-)<br />

Tuesday, March 12, 13<br />

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SUN HEATING UP<br />

•Regardless of all the other factors, this one WILL kill us. (Unless we<br />

can move to another planet, or physically move our planet to a<br />

different orbit).<br />

•As the sun heats up over time, it changes the climate here on Earth.<br />

•Eventually as the habitable zone moves past the Earth, we will<br />

experience the same sort of runaway greenhouse effect that Venus<br />

experienced.<br />

•optimist view: 3 billion years from now<br />

•pessimist view: ~1 billion years from now (includes water in the<br />

model)<br />

Tuesday, March 12, 13<br />

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OTHER THINGS<br />

(INCLUDING THE LEAST LIKELY ASTRONOMY)<br />

•Global nuclear warfare ---> kills most life on earth.<br />

•Global epidemic ---> could kill all humans on earth.<br />

•Global climate change (Global warming)---> early runaway<br />

greenhouse effect could kill all life on earth.<br />

•Mercury’s orbit gets disturbed by Jupiter (1% chance) and hits the<br />

Earth (very unlikely) ---> destroys the planet.<br />

•The solar system has a very close encounter with a star/planet/black<br />

hole ---> could destroy the planet.<br />

•AI’s or aliens kill us all (hey, it could happen) ---> destroys humans.<br />

Tuesday, March 12, 13<br />

100

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