Presentation BTO Results (Helena Kyster Hansen, Peter Cardebring ...

Baltic Transport Outlook 2030
Baltic Sea Strategy Priority Area 11
Final Conference 2 December
Helena Kyster-Hansen, Peter W. Cardebring, Olaf Meyer-Rühle

On the web – will be updated
The BTO Final Reporting
Task 1 report
Methodology of
Strategic Network
Task 3 report
Scenarios
Task 2 report
Drivers of transport
development
Task 4 report
Network analysis
Executive report
focus on results,
recommendations,
principles and
sources
Task 5 report
SWOT and MCA
Task 6 report
Planning methods
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Task 1:
Methodology and Project Approach
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Strategic Networks principles
• Accessibility to functional urban areas
• Integration of peripheral regions and islands
• Access to important raw materials and production sites
• Access to administrative and educational facilities
• Access to important gates for import and export
• Important transport hubs (nodes) for both passengers and freight,
facilitating switch of transport modes
• Connectivity between the different parts of the networks
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Baltic Sea Region Strategic Port Network
BSR Strategic Port Network
• BSR Port Overview
• Different Types of Ports
• Selection Methodology
• Prioritised Ports
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BSR Port Overview:
• Largest no of ports along the Swedish,
Finnish & Danish coastlines
• 30 largest ports handle 73% of total BSR
port volumes
• The three largest ports are:
• Primorsk (RU)
• St. Petersburg (RU)
• Gothenburg (SWE)
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Different Types of Traffic
• Different Types of Traffic Require Different Types of Ports &
Handling Equipment
• RoRo/Ropax Ports (Trucks, Mafy trailer, cars, rail waggons)
• Container Ports (Container – over-sea/feeder vessels)
• General Crago/Breakbulk Ports (Cargo which is bundled, but not
stowed in containers e.g. project cargo (power generation plants),
turbines, iron & steel products (bars, coils..), forest products
• Dry Bulk Ports (Coal, iron ore)
• Liquid Bulk Ports (Crude oil, LNG, gasoline…)
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Baltic Sea Container Feeder and RoRo/Ropax
Network - Overview
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Selected approach to the Multi-Criteria Analysis
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Selected approach to the Multi-Criteria Analysis
BSR Strategic Port Network
•37 Non Bulk Ports Selected
•15 Bulk Ports Selected
•7 Ports Are On Both Lists
•In a 4th step 8 additional Ports were
selected based on their specific regional
importance and location on the Strategic
Road- and Rail Network
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Task 2:
Drivers of transport demand and supply
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Areas covered in the Task 2 analysis
• Socio-economic development trends
• Trade
• Energy
• Technology development
• Infrastructure development
• Transport policy

Task 3:
Scenarios 2010 and 2030 and sensitivity
analysis
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The
BTO2030
Baseline
Assumptions
Infrastructure development based on National plans with agreed
financing and political agreement. Road and rail plans for passenger and
freight networks. More recent updates (>spring 2011) cannot be included.
Population projection reduction of 4 percent compared with 2010.
Biggest decreases in south and east.
Employment forecast reduction of 13 percent compared with 2010, due
to decreasing population and ageing population structure.
Effect on:
transport costs,
transport demand and
mode/route choice
Transport demand
Transport demand
Car ownership forecast with increasing relative levels (cars per
household) of 28 percent compared with 2010. Higher in eastern BSR.
Transport demand
Economic growth (GDP) of 63 percent for the BSR compared with 2010.
Stronger development in east of BSR. Poland now signalled higher values
than in the Baseline assumptions.
Fuel price, specifically oil prices are assumed to increase by 45 percent to
$124 per barrel.
Transport costs are assumed to increase with different rates by mode
and by passenger/freight. Private cars +20%, rail tickets +0% and air
tickets -15%. Trucks +4%, rail freight +0% and maritime +18%.
Transport demand
and transport costs
Transport demand
and transport costs
Transport demand
and transport costs
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The
Scenarios
Assumptions
BTO Baseline 2010 update of existing situation for the year 2010. Data
mixture of years 2007-2009. Infrastructure 2010.
BTO Baseline 2030 main scenario including National infrastructure plans,
demographic projections and transport cost assumptions.
Sensitivity test: Rail passenger transport costs +10% produces
reduction in rail passenger volumes of 5%. Fairly cost sensitive in model.
Sensitivity test: Rail freight transport costs +10% produces reduction
in rail passenger volumes of 21%. This shows very high levels of
sensitivity in the model.
Sensitivity test: Unchanged freight transport costs compared with
2010 results in a reduction in rail freight of 10%, a 3% increase in trucks
and an increase of 1% for maritime transport. Again this shows that the
model is sensitive to cost changes between road and rail while maritime
transport is fairly unaffected.
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Population development 2030 against 2010
Source: EUROPOP2008 except Germany (Destatis) and Russia (Federal State Statistics Service)
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Employment development 2030 against 2010
Source: EUROPOP2008 except Germany and Russia and assumptions about unchanged working ages
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Task 4:
Strategic BTO network analysis

140%
Development 2010 - 2030
120%
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
International car
(vehicle-km)
International
truck (vehiclekm)
International rail
freight (tonnekm)
International rail
passengers
(passenger-km)
International
Inland
waterways
(tonne-km)
International air
passengers
(number of
passengers)
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Increase in freight transport volume by commodity
group – by 2030
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Road Network development between 2010 and 2030
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Rail Network development between 2010 and 2030
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Forecast Total Port Troughput till 2030
• The forecasts for BTO 2030 project have been developed by applying
an existing set of trade forecasts, as developed for the ITREN-2030
project (DG MOVE, FP7)
•The model takes into account changes in the economy, the transport
sector, the environment, and in the energy sector till year 2030
•To get more detailed forecasts (regional level, freight segments etc.),
various additional complementary techniques have been used to adapt
the results to the Baltic Sea Region
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Coastal Region Concept Used Combined
with Modelling Results
• 24 Pre-defined coastal regions used (large number of ports)
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Forecast Results Per Segment
Freight
Segment
Total growth 2010-
2030 (Million
tonnes)
Total growth 2010-
2030 (%)
Average growth
rate per year (%)
Containers +82 +138 +4,4
Dry bulk +75 +42 +1,8
Liquid bulk -22 -7 -0,4
Roro, trailers +56 +47 +2,0
Roro, others +12 +93 +3,4
Other cargoes +25 +32 +1,4
All cargoes +228 +30 +1,3
100 %
90 %
80 %
70 %
60 %
50 %
40 %
30 %
20 %
10 %
0 %
1,5 % 2,5 %
10 % 10,5 %
8 %
15,5 %
24 %
41 %
14 %
17,5 %
26 %
29 %
2010 2030
RORO - Other
Other cargoes
Containers
RORO - Trailer
Dry bulk
Liquid bulk
• Container and RoRo
show highest growth rates
•Liquid bulk assumed to
decrease over the forecast
period
•Annual average growth
rate is 2.2% (Excl. liquid
bulk)
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Forecast Results Per Country
Volume 2010
(tonnes)
Volume 2030
(tonnes)
Volume change
2010-2030
(Million tonnes)
Volume
change 2010-
2030 (%)
Denmark 69,578,511 86,421,829 16,8 24,2
Estonia 37,113,053 38,730,507 1,6 4,4
Finland 98,351,104 125,269,304 26,9 27,4
Germany
(Baltic Sea) 55,978,989 68,094,047 12,1 21,6
Latvia 61,531,809 75,371,385 13,8 22,5
Lithuania 37,929,200 44,718,069 6,8 17,9
Poland 48,755,702 73,097,503 24,3 49,9
South Norway 21,503,724 27,498,728 6 27,9
Russia 171,631,578 243,800,782 72,2 42
Sweden 154,764,477 201,805,685 47 30,4
Total 757,138,147 984,807,839 227,5 30,1
• Total forecast increase by 30%
• The eastern shore of BSR will gain 53% share of the total volume growth
• Largest forecast increases in Poland and Russia, followed by Sweden and
Finland
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Forecast Results On A Regional Level
• The largest growth rates at St. Petersburg region, the Kaliningrad region
and by the Gdynia-Gdansk region with growth rates of above 80%.
•A second category with high growth rates can be identified consisting of
Skåne region and Gävleborg län together with the Stockholm region,
having a forecast growth rates in the range of 60-80%.
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BTO 2030 Forecast – Conclusion:
• The importance of maritime transports will increase in the future in the
Baltic Sea Region.
• The international cargo volumes handled in the Baltic Sea ports are
forecast to increase by 229 million tonnes, an increase by 30%.
• Largest growth rates show the container segment and RoRo whereas
the liquid bulk segment shows a slight decline.
• There is a development towards a more heterogenic cargo type division
after the earlier liquid bulk dominance.
• The coastal regions in Russia, Poland and southern Sweden show the
largest growth rates.
• The Baltic Sea ports are increasingly functioning not as individual
places that handle ships but within logistics chains. The supply chain focus
on port competition holds clear implications on the role of hinterland
connections.
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Competitiveness in the Baltic Sea Region
• The Region is highly integrated in Global Trade and Investment
• The Region is more active as investor abroad than attracting foreign
investments (FDI)
• The innovation output is strong, but there are signs of a slow
downward trend
• World export market shares is:
– an important indicator of the ability of companies located in a
specific country to successfully compete on World Markets
– also an indication of companies’ exposure to foreign competition
and global markets
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Competitiveness in the Baltic Sea Region
• The BSR continue to defend its overall world market share during
2009
• BSR’s World market exports share is twice as high as its share of
global GDP
• The Region benefits from its growing position in service exports, while
continuing losing market shares in goods exports
←Total BSR World Market Share
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Competitiveness in the Baltic Sea Region
• How competitive is the EU and the BSR countries
• The World Economic Forum’s ranking (Global Competitiveness Report
2010) shows that of the EU 27 countries competitiveness ranking:
– Sweden, Germany, Finland and Denmark belong to top 10
– Estonia, Poland and Lithuania belong to top 50
– Latvia and Russia are ranked lower (70 respectively 63)
• The analysis shows that there is scope for increasing structural
reforms to:
– increase market flexibility
– support greater market integration aiming at increasing the markets’ size
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Competitiveness in the Baltic Sea Region
Increasing Importance of Integration of Ports in the Supply Chain
‣ Seaport Hinterland interaction is increasingly important for shaping supply
solutions for shippers and logistics providers
‣ Development in Europe shows that the ”battle” will be fought ashore
‣ Securing terminal and corridor capacity is increasingly important
‣ Integrated High Capacity Intermodal Solutions – important for inland
penetration in order to increase the port’s capture area (e.g. Gothenburg,
Lübeck-Travemünde, Rostock, Helsinki, St. Petersburg..............)
‣ Inland corridor formation has allowed seaports to access formerly captive
hinterlands of other ports
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Competitiveness in the Baltic Sea Region
How should/is the Baltic Sea Region Prepare for the Future
‣ Increasing tendency towards port and terminal concentration
‣ Development of Intermodal Rail Shuttles for increasing the Port
Hinterland (e.g. Port of Gothenburg, Port of Travemünde, Port of
Rostock)
‣ Increasing investments in Port- and Terminal Capacity Extensions
required
‣ Prioritise investments in Road-, Rail- and Intermodal transport
capacity increases which support a further BSR Integration and
improve the Region’s Competitiveness
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Task 5:
SWOT and Multi-criteria analysis
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Focus of SWOT Analysis
• Analysis of present situation (strengths and weaknesses)
• Analysis of anticipated situation in 2030 (strengths and weaknesses as
well as opportunities and theats)
• Focus of strengths and weaknesses on infrastructure and logistics
management
• Focus of opportunities on collaboration between BSR countries
(bilaterally, subregions (e.g. Baltic States), BSR globally)
• Focus of threats on demographic and economic changes;
sustainability (congestion, emissions)
• Identification of strategic measures to foster strengths, reduce
weaknesses, grasp opportunities and limit the impact of threats

Retained spatial clustering
• Northern Band: NO, DK – SE – FI
• Western Band: NO – SE – DK – DE
• Eastern Band: FI – EE – LV – LT – PL – DE
• Southern Band: DE – PL (- BY, RU)
• Land connections to RU and BY
• Baltic Sea maritime connections
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Strategic Network Analysis (Task 4)
feeding the SWOT Analysis
• Infrastructure
• Interoperability
• Accessibility
• Transport demand and traffic performance
(passengers, freight)
• Logistics management
• BSR in global logistics chains
• Environmental and safety impacts
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SWOT Table 1: Baltic Sea Region as a whole
Strengths
(present)
Road • Good motorway
conditions in old EU
member states, new
member states catching up
Rail • Strong tradition for rail
freight in the whole BSR
• Well-connected network
for passengers mainly on
national levels
Maritime
Aviation
Interm
odal
• Strong and competitive
large ports as Hamburg,
Gdansk, St. Petersburg,
Murmansk, Gothenburg
• New port development
projects, specially in
container terminals
(Poland, Latvia, Russia)
• Strong maritime network
by ferries
• Baltic Sea Region as
natural trade platform for
the large Russian
economy
• Well functioning airports
• Basic network of
international airports
• Large number of regional
airports served by low cost
carriers
• SAS based in three
countries (DK, NO, SE)
• Maritime transports
requiring intermodal
solutions
Weaknesses
(present)
Transport Infrastructure
• Backlog in Baltic states,
poor conditions in BY, RU,
capacity problems around
large conglomerations
• Differences in voltage,
gauge and safety systems
• Lower quality of network
in Eastern parts of BSR
• Inadequate hinterland
connections, either
insufficient capacity or
missing links
• Insufficient port
infrastructure, especially in
Eastern and Southern
Bands
• Poor hinterland
connections to ports
• Inefficient customs
regime in Russia & Belarus
• Low port efficiency,
especially affecting SSS
operations
• Some already crowded
airports
• Copenhagen the only
hub airport in the BSR
• Efficiency in intermodal
terminals, incl. Cost
efficiency
• Majority of semi-trailers
are not liftable onto rail
• Still large scepticism
towards intermodal
solutions
Opportunities
(horizon 2030)
• Ambitious plans to
improve roads in the Baltic
states and in Russia
• Investments to eliminate
bottlenecks and increase
capacity
• Modernisation of
infrastructure in the East
• Plans undergoing to
improve port efficiency and
hinterland connections to
boost SSS
• Strong institutional
support to the MoS
• Possibilities of increasing
capacity for container
sector
• Port expansion plans
derived from the oil
transport generated by
Russia
• New technologies
supporting the multi-modal
chains
• Berlin (BER) could
become major hub for BSR
• New airport project
(Central Airport for
Poland/New Warsaw
Airport)
• Develop network of
terminals as well as
hinterland connections to
dry ports
• New technical solutions
for horizontal transhipment
of different types of units
• Different efficiency
measures in terminals
Threats
(horizon 2030)
• High financial funding
requirements
• New infrastructural
bottlenecks because of
rising demand
• Conflicts between
passenger and freight
trains due to scarce
capacity
• Vessel size increasing
due to economies of scale
• Environmental, safety &
security requirements
becoming very costly
• Lack of funds for
necessary port
investments
• Road & rail networks
competing with the
maritime links
• Sulphur issue (0.1%)
might lead to diversion of
short sea volumes
• Feeder-hub services
decreasing service level of
peripheral areas
• Inefficiency leading to
increasing lack of interest
in intermodal solutions
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Main Strengths
• All BSR countries except RU in Schengen zone
• Strong export base in the Arctic circle
• Strong maritime shipping and port sector
• Good ferry services
• Strong logistics businesses
• Strong intermodal logistics
• Baltic Sea environmental monitoring system
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Main Weaknesses
• Gaps between « old » and « new » EU member
states and Russia in many regards
• Large areas with low population density
• Major rail interoperability and harmonisation
problems
• Inadequate port-hinterland rail services
• No major air hub
• Baltic sea not fully Schengen area
• Low-level cross-border co-operation
• Logistics bottlenecks
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Main Opportunities
• Strategic transport network planning
• More efficient infrastructure and vehicle
technologies
• New ICTs
• Russia associating to EU economy
• Implementing missing links, in particular in new EU
member states
• Green corridors
• Successful environmental and safety policies
• Land bridge to Far East through Russia
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Main Threats
• Gaps between Eastern and Western countries
narrowing very slowly
• Economic and financial crises
• Debt reduction policies drying up infrastructure
funding
• Interruption of Russia coming closer to EU
• Russian transit traffic eroding
• Declining air services to/from low-density areas
• Harmonisation deficits (legal, technical)
• Stricter environmental standards
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Multi-Criteria Analysis (MCA)
• MCA is the quantitative description of a qualitative
assessment
• Focus areas of Task 4 become assessment criteria
• Importance of criteria scaled by weights
• Listing of measures deducted from SWOT analysis
• Assessment of impacts of each measure (scale: -5
to +5)
• Ranking of measures
MCA is not a feasibility assessment, but
complementary
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BTO2030 Recommendations
1: Establish a process of joint infrastructure planning of the Strategic BSR
Transport Networks for both short-term and long-term horizon, comprising
the institutional framework with full planning and monitoring
(implementation, operation and maintenance) capabilities with clear
strategies for border-crossing planning management.
2: Develop and promote the BSR Strategic Network, especially when it
goes beyond the TEN-T to obtain funding from the EU Commission,
showing the special needs of the region and to also develop further
funding in order to secure the fast development of the BSR Strategic
Network.
3: Jointly integrate the Green Corridor concept in the Strategic BSR
network, i.e. set-up and implement green corridors for the BSR, including
development of strong hubs and innovative logistics solutions.
4: Enhance railway links in the BSR Strategic Network by implementing
the ETCS on busy lines, where economically justified and by investing in
cost-efficient transfer facilities to interconnect railway lines with different
gauges.
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BTO2030 Recommendations
5: Implement Via Baltica and Rail Baltica projects as EU priority projects.
6: Promote Baltic Motorways of the Sea and Short Sea Shipping, while
simplifying customs procedures for vessels crossing international waters
within the Baltic Sea.
7: Bridge maritime channels by fixed links and connecting hinterland
infrastructure as economically and environmentally suitable, e.g. Fehmarn
Belt or Gulf of Finland (between Helsinki and Tallinn).
8: Promote the relevant sections of the BSR Strategic Networks within the
Bothnian corridor, CETC and other projects also in the north-south
direction.
9: Develop regional hubs - multi-modal transport nodes and sufficient portand
intermodal terminal capacity together with sufficient hinterland
network
10: Promote road safety measures and organise road safety campaigns
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BTO2030 Recommendations
11: Strengthen the competitive position of the BSR in applying innovative
ICT applications in transport, eg. through BSR cross-border pilot projects.
12: Improve efficiency of cross-border movements of cargo on the external
EU-borders by tackling administrative and fiscal barrier.
13: Implement as fast as possible the Single European Sky initiative in all
BSR countries and its neighbouring partners.
14: Accelerate technology shift towards cleaner vehicles including electric
vehicles, renewable fuels, eg. through BSR cooperation projects on new
vehicle technologies etc.
15: Member States in favour of complete liberalisation of cabotage and the
introduction of a European modular system (EMS) push EU institutions to
allow tests with conclusive results and shift of EU policies accordingly.
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BTO2030 Recommendations
16: Promote the development of landbridge railway connections BSR –
Asia to enhance BSR gateway
17: Ensure reasonable air transport services to low population and
peripheral areas as well as populated areas with insufficient transport
connections
18: Establish concrete initiatives and projects for soft measures focussing
on more efficient use of the infrastructure.
19: Establish a ”BSR Logistics Forum” for increased cooperation and
interaction between the different stakeholders in the BSR.
20: Develop a transport model that takes into account the specificities of
the BSR, including the Baltic Sea and the vital connections across the sea
21: Continuous data collection in order to ensure the accuracy of the
results.
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