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BITRE | Working paper 73
Table 2.1
Base case projections of new passenger car fuel intensity,
1990–2020
Year
Rated fuel
consumption
for ‘standard’
passenger cars a
(L/100km gasoline
equivalent)
Rated fuel
consumption for
4WD passenger
vehicles (ATWs) a
(L/100km gasoline
equivalent)
Percentage of new
passenger vehicle
sales accounted
for by ATWs b
Percentage of new
passenger vehicle
sales accounted
for by hybrids c
Weighted
average new
passenger car
fuel intensity a
(per cent) (per cent) (L/100km gasoline
equivalent)
1990 8.65 12.98 8.1 0.0 9.00
1991 8.42 12.82 8.4 0.0 8.79
1992 8.41 12.89 8.9 0.0 8.81
1993 8.45 12.36 10.0 0.0 8.85
1994 8.51 12.12 11.1 0.0 8.90
1995 8.44 12.26 8.5 0.0 8.77
1996 8.33 12.35 8.7 0.0 8.68
1997 8.32 12.25 10.4 0.0 8.73
1998 8.14 11.69 13.2 0.0 8.61
1999 8.11 11.59 14.9 0.0 8.63
2000 8.11 11.24 16.3 0.0 8.62
2001 7.99 11.41 17.1 0.0 8.58
2002 7.94 11.28 19.4 0.0 8.59
2003 7.85 10.92 20.4 0.1 8.47
2004 7.77 10.70 21.2 0.1 8.39
2005 7.72 10.43 23.3 0.2 8.34
2006 7.53 10.20 22.3 0.3 8.12
2007 7.45 10.10 22.4 0.5 8.03
Forecasts
2008 7.34 9.90 22.5 0.7 7.90
2009 7.23 9.71 22.7 0.8 7.77
2010 6.98 9.67 23.0 1.0 7.57
2011 6.91 9.58 23.2 1.3 7.50
2012 6.85 9.49 23.4 1.6 7.43
2013 6.78 9.40 23.6 2.0 7.35
2014 6.72 9.31 23.8 2.6 7.28
2015 6.65 9.22 24.0 3.2 7.20
2016 6.59 9.13 24.2 4.0 7.12
2017 6.52 9.04 24.4 5.0 7.04
2018 6.46 8.95 24.6 6.2 6.95
2019 6.39 8.86 24.8 7.7 6.86
2020 6.33 8.77 25.0 9.7 6.77
a. NAFC—‘National Average Fuel Consumption’—values refer to dynamometer cycle testing (as opposed to
actual on-road fuel intensity). Rated fuel consumption is given in litres of fuel, in gasoline equivalent energy
terms, used per 100 kilometres travelled (L/100km)—averaged over the test’s length and over the possible
fuel types (which include automotive gasoline, diesel, LPG, natural gas and ethanol blends; i.e. assuming that
electric vehicles, including plug-in hybrids, and hydrogen fuel-cell vehicles both play relatively negligible roles
in the Australian passenger vehicle market over the 2020 timeframe).
b. ATWs are ‘All Terrain Wagons’ (4WD passenger vehicles).
c. Hybrids are hybrid petrol-electric passenger vehicles.
Sources: ABS (2006a, 2006b), BTRE (2007a, 2006a, 2003a, 2003c, 2002a) and BITRE estimates.
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