Agriculture and Sustainable Development in Developing Countries

conference.agsap.org

Agriculture and Sustainable Development in Developing Countries

Agriculture and Sustainable

Development in Developing Countries

Joachim von Braun

International Food Policy Research Institute

“Integrated Assessment of Agriculture and Sustainable Development

Egmond aan Zee, 10 March, 2009


Overview

1. Sustainable development for whom

2. Complex pressures on the food system

3. Agenda for science and policy

Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, March 2009


% of population

1.4 billion people remain poor in the

developing world

Billions

Poverty at $1/day, 2005 PPP

80

60

1.2

East Asia and Pacific

South Asia

1.0

Sub-Saharan Africa

0.8

40

0.6

20

0

East Asia and Pacific

South Asia

Sub-Saharan Africa

1981 1987 1993 1999 2005

0.4

0.2

0.0

1981 1987 1993 1999 2005

Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, March 2009

Source: BASED ON Chen and Ravallion 2008.


Who is affected by hunger

Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, March 2009

Source: UN Millennium Project, Hunger Task Force, 2005.


Hunger in different agric. systems

Dominant farming systems Global Hunger Index 2008

Irrigated areas remain few

Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, March 2009

Source: HarvestChoice, IFPRI, 2009 and von Grebmer et al. 2008.


Why and how sustainability perspectives

differ between rich and poor countries

Because different …

• …valuation of nature capital and

man made capital

• …valuation of time

Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, March 2009


FORMS OF CAPITAL

Man-made capital

• Physical products

• Human (knowledge)

• Social; (trust and governance)

• Institutions

Natural capital

• Environmental resources (land, water, air,

minerals, etc.)

• Bio-diversity

• Biological systems

Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, March 2009


Human Welfare = f {Natural Capital (C n ), Manmade

Capital (C m )}

Sustainability

concepts

very strong

Deep

ecologists

Strong

Cautious

approach

Substitution

between C n & No very

C m

Discount rate

(DR)

Weak

Ecological

touch

Limited

limited

0 0 0 DR

interest rate

Very weak

growth

optimists

Complete

0 DR

interest rate

Action

required

limit

human

activity

conserve

as much

as possible

set market

incentives

for

conservation

none

Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, March 2009

J. Von Braun, 2009


Ethical criteria needed to identify

consensus options

• Agric. systems need to be equitable and

sustainable to benefit poor people

• Externalities across systems and between rich

and poor are real

• “Do-no harm” is not good enough (versus “do

good” and a rights based approach)

Development perspective in integrated

systems assessment: Achieve sustainable

human livelihoods!

Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, March 2009


Overview

1. Sustainable development for whom

2. Complex pressures on the food system

3. Agenda for science and policy

Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, March 2009


A combination of complex stress factors

Volatile input prices

Low R&D investment

Climate change

Water scarcity

Pests & diseases

Agri-food

system

Limited capital

Subsidized biofuels

Biodiversity loss

Land degradation

Lack of infrastructure

Declining trade

Volatile output prices

Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, March 2009


Global agri-food business system shocks:

1. commodity prices; 2. recession

Agricultural

input

industry

top 10: $55 bln

• Syngenta

• Monsanto

• Bayer C

• Dupont N

• Mosaic

Farms

Agricultural

value added:

$1,674 bln

No. of farms:

ca. 450 mln

Size distr.

>100 ha: 0.5%

< 2 ha: 85%

Food

processors

and traders

top 10: $426 bln

• Nestle

• Cargill

• Unilever

• ADM

• Bunge

Food

retailers

top 10: $1,042

bln

• Wal-Mart

• Carrefour

• Tesco

• Metro G

• Kroger

C o n s u m e r s $4,000 bln

Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, March 2009

Source: von Braun 2008, updated.


US$/ton

Unsustainable food prices

800

600

Corn

Wheat

Rice

Price spike

400

200

0

Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, March 2009

Source: J. von Braun, FPRI, Data from FAO 2009.


US$/ton

Jul-07

Aug-07

Sep-07

Oct-07

Nov-07

Dec-07

Jan-08

Feb-08

Mar-08

Apr-08

May-08

Jun-08

Jul-08

Aug-08

Sep-08

Oct-08

Political de-stabilizing food protests

800

Maize

25

700

600

Wheat

Rice

Riots (right)

20

500

400

300

15

10

# of riots

200

100

5

0

0

Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, March 2009

Source: J. von Braun based on data from FAO 2009 and monitoring of news reports.


Output response forthcoming, but not from

low-income countries

Growth of cereal output in 2007-08:

11%: developed

0.9%: developing

1.6%: developing, excl. Brazil, China, India

Plans for investment scaled down as capital

becomes more scarce and expensive

Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, March 2009

Source: FAO 2008.


Severe impacts on the poor

Purchasing power: 50-70% of income spent on food and

wages do not adjust accordingly

Assets and human capital: distressed sale of productive

assets, withdrawal of girls from school, etc.

+ Level of diet (low) and nutritional deficiencies (high)

Nutrition is undermined for the long run

Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, March 2009

Source: Joachim von Braun 2008.


Improving early childhood nutrition has large

impacts on adult economic productivity

Grade attainment

(women)

Cognitive ability

8%

27%

Randomized

nutritional

intervention among

Guatemalan children

0-7 years old (’69-’77)

Reading

comprehension

17%

Follow-up in adults

25-42 years old (’02-

04)

Income earned per

hour worked

(men)

20%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%

income growth

= 46% for 0-2

year boys

Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, March 2009

Source: Hoddinott et al. Lancet,2008.


Low agricultural productivity growth in

developing countries

Annual total factor productivity growth, 1992-2003

%

East Asia 2.7

South Asia 1.0

East Africa 0.4

West Africa 1.6

Southern Africa 1.3

Latin America 2.7

North Africa & West Asia 1.4

All regions 2.1

Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, March 2009

Source: von Braun et al. 2008.


Climate change reducing productivity

Climate change impact on agric. productivity by 2080,

factoring in carbon fertilization (%)

Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, March 2009

Source: Cline 2007.


Financial crisis and depression

• Less capital for agriculture now

• Higher debt burden for farmers who invested in

agriculture expansion

• Reduced employment and wages of unskilled

workers

• Reduced remittances

Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, March 2009


Recession scenarios 2005-2020

Scenarios

baseline: econ. growth as in past years

1: Recession: econ. growth falls by 2-3%,

agric. investment maintained

2: Recession: econ. growth falls by 2-3%,

agric. investment reduced

Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, March 2009


Prices spike with recession and low

agric. investment

200

Non-recession

Same-investment

Low-investment

Maize

300

Rice

150

250

100

2005 2010 2015 2020

200

200

2005 2010 2015 2020

Wheat

150

Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, March 2009

100

2005 2010 2015 2020

Source: Rosegrant, von Braun; IFPRI IMPACT, Dec. 2008.


Millions

16 mln more malnourished children with

recession and low investment

210

180

150

120

World (excluding SSA)

SSA

90

60

30

0

Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, March 2009

2005 2020

Source: Rosegrant, von Braun; IFPRI IMPACT, Dec. 2008.


Food- and financial crises linkages

Food crisis

Financial

crisis

Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, March 2009

Source: von Braun; Dec 2008


Overview

1. Sustainable development for whom

2. Complex pressures on the food system

3. Agenda for science and policy

Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, March 2009


Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, March 2009

What innovations

• Technologies along the whole food value chain

• Institutions incl. laws, regulations, traditions,

customs, beliefs, norms and organizations, incl. in

research, extension

• Public policies for strategic directions change,

incentives, and facilitation of institutional and

technological innovations

Integrated assessment of agriculture and

sustainability needs an institutional and policy

perspective


Broadening the agric. research agenda

• Small farm incomes

• Food quality and health

Augmenting

agric.

productivity

• Nutrition

• Rural development

• Natural resource mgt.

• Int’l competitiveness

Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, March 2009


R&D central for long-term agric. growth:

Double agric. R&D to impact poverty

R&D allocation

(mil. 2005 $)

2008* 2013

in # of

poor (mil.)

2008-2020

+ Agr. output

growth (% pts.)

2008-2020

SSA 608 2,913 -143.8 2.8

S Asia 908 3,111 -124.6 2.4

Developing

world 4,975* 9,951 -282.1 1.1

*estimate

CGIAR investment to rise from US$0.5 to US$1.0

billion as part of this expansion

Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, March 2009

Source: von Braun, Shenggen Fan, et al. 2008.


Some CGIAR “Best Bets”

Food, Environment, Policy for People

Approach (mil $) mil ppl

Revitalizing yield growth in intensive cereal systems

of Asia

150 3,000

Developing drought-tolerant maize for Africa 100 320

Scaling up biofortification 125 672

Conducting climate change & adaptation research 127.5 1,200

Combining organic & inorganic nutrients for crop

productivity

55 400

Promoting sustainable groundwater use 24 261

Including women in extension & innovation 30 200

Exploiting agriculture-health links to benefit the poor 75

Global

Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, March 2009


Policy and Policy Process/Governance

Broaden the systems approach: Agr. -Health

Agricultural

Supply

Chain

Agricultural

Producers

(farmers &

workers)

Agricultural

Systems

(type, method,

practice,

location)

Agricultural

outputs

(qty, qual, price,

diversity)

Intermediary

Processes

Labor

(energy, time,

amount)

Environment

(water, air,

soil)

Income

(amount, type,

control)

Access

(food, health

services)

Health

Outcomes

Occupation

al health

Waterassociated

vectorborne

diseases

(e.g.

malaria)

Nutrition

•Undernutrition

•Dietrelated

chronic

disease

Foodborne

illnesses

HIV/AIDS

Livestockrelated

illnesses

Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, March 2009

Source: Hawkes and Ruel, WHO Bull. 2006.


How to focus on poor people in setting

priorities (e.g. in Agriculture – Health/Nutrition)

Focus on:

1. Lives saved and livelihoods improved,

2. Economic productivity, growth, returns

to investment.

-> A dual framework approach needed with

both of these concepts for informed

policy discourse

Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, March 2009


Integration of policy priorities for sustainable

food and nutrition security of poor people

1. Promote sustainable agriculture growth

2. Facilitate trade and reduce market volatility

3. Expand social protection and child nutrition

action

Research for identification of complementarities of

actions and investments among all 3

With an explicit focus on people

Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, March 2009

More magazines by this user
Similar magazines