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BACKPAGE mike elgan
The rise and rise (and rise) of Apple’s iOS
When the first iOS gadget shipped in 2007, The
New York Times’ David Pogue published a list of
questions about the new iPhone. The last question
on the list was: “Who on earth would buy this thing”
It’s a question nobody would ask today. The phone, and
Apple’s other mobile devices that run the iOS are succeeding
beyond anyone’s predictions. Apple says the iOS is currently
installed on more than 200 million devices.
Another small thing happened in 2007 that has become a big
thing: Apple filed a patent request for the capacitive touch screen
used by the iPhone, iPad and, in fact, by nearly all of Apple’s
competitors in the market. That patent was granted in June.
One possible outcome of the inevitable court cases to come
is that competitors may have to pay Apple a licensing fee for
every non-Apple smartphone or tablet shipped.
Hype versus reality
Since its 2007 launch, there has always been a lot of hype
around the iPhone far beyond actual market share. The many
brands that run the Android OS collectively own more market
share both globally and in the US than the iPhone. And internationally,
handsets from giants like Nokia have maintained
more sales than those from Apple.
But all this appears to be changing. In the first quarter of this
year, Android phone market share declined nearly 3%, while
iOS’s share rose by more than 12%. Android still has nearly
half the smartphone market, and Apple significantly less than
that (about 30%.)
These changing fortunes could represent a temporary blip
caused by Apple’s availability on Verizon. Or it could be a trend.
Another possible trend is the decline and fall of Nokia. That
company’s smartphone handset market share dropped from
24% to 16% in one year. Apple remained at 17% share while
the overall pie grew significantly.
When the iPhone shipped in 2007, nobody—and I mean nobody—predicted
that Apple would sell more handsets worldwide
than Nokia within four years.
A recent survey measuring Web traffic by various devices
found that some 97% of all tablet traffic in the United States
comes from iPads. And if you think that’s high, the number is
100% in Japan and 99% in the UK (the global average is 89%).
Money-printing machine
All these market share and traffic numbers mask a stark busi-
ness reality: Apple makes vastly more money
from mobile devices than its competitors.
Firstly, Apple makes money from handsets,
which Google no longer sells. Secondly,
Apple makes money from apps—far
more per app than any other platform, and
far more apps. For example, last year Google
earned about US$102 million from apps
sales, while Apple raked in $1.7 billion.
Apple’s iOS is even more profitable than
Microsoft Windows—2.3 times higher.
App developers point out that iOS is easier
to develop for and monetize than the Google
Android platform, and presumably other
competitors as well.
Mike Elgan
writes regularly
about technology
and
tech culture
for CW(US).
Contact him
at Elgan.com
The success of iOS devices thus far is nothing compared
with what’s coming. One report says Apple has ordered two
manufacturers to build enough iPhone 5 handsets to sell 15
million in the first month of sales. The new phone is expected
to launch in August or September.
A study coming from the Yankee Group next month finds
that about 40% of all smartphone buyers in Europe say they
intend to buy an iPhone next time they buy a phone.
China Mobile + iPhone = ¥¥¥
A reasonably credible rumor from a blogger in China says
that China’s biggest carrier, China Mobile, will soon announce
a deal to sell the iPhone 5.
The current iPhone is available in China only from the No.
2 carrier. Such an announcement would suggest a radical increase
in iPhone sales in the world’s largest country, and one
with an incredible 910 million mobile phone subscribers,
where the iPhone is very popular.
Apple currently dominates the tablet market, having sold 25
million iPads to date and possibly over 14 million more iPads
in the third quarter. But one analyst believes Apple will sell a
billion of them.
Over the next five years, we’ll see more people using phones
and tablets as their main computing device. And I think we can
also expect to see current desktop platforms like Mac OS X,
Windows and Linux replaced by touch-friendly interfaces like
iOS, Android, Metro and so on.
In other words, Apple’s iOS is poised to take over mainstream
computing. 3
42 Computerworld Hong Kong July/August 2011 www.cw.com.hk