A 100% Renewable Energy System In Belgium by 2050 Assessment ...
A 100% Renewable Energy System In Belgium by 2050 Assessment ...
A 100% Renewable Energy System In Belgium by 2050 Assessment ...
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A 100 % <strong>Renewable</strong> <strong>Energy</strong> <strong>System</strong> <strong>In</strong> <strong>Belgium</strong> <strong>by</strong> <strong>2050</strong><br />
<strong>Assessment</strong> of Different Long Term Trajectories to Transform<br />
the Current Belgian <strong>Energy</strong> <strong>System</strong> into a <strong>100%</strong> <strong>Renewable</strong><br />
<strong>Energy</strong> Mix<br />
Jan Duerinck
Content<br />
» Some background figures about <strong>Belgium</strong><br />
» Definition of the scenarios<br />
» The challenge of intermittent renewable energy<br />
» Modelling approach: how we used the TIMES model<br />
» Exogenous assumptions<br />
» General results<br />
» Special results<br />
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© 2013, VITO NV
Background figures<br />
Surface: 30.000 km 2<br />
Population: 11 million (330p/km2)<br />
GDP: 350 billion €<br />
Final energy consumption: 1800 PJ<br />
Per capita final energy consumption:<br />
150 % EU27 average or 75 % US<br />
Hydro limited to 120 MW<br />
Domestic fossil energy supply = 0 (1992)<br />
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© 2013, VITO NV
Definitions of scenarios<br />
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© 2013, VITO NV
Challenge of intermittent renewable energy – the smaller one<br />
0.8<br />
0.7<br />
0.6<br />
Capacity factor<br />
0.5<br />
0.4<br />
0.3<br />
Solar<br />
Wind<br />
0.2<br />
0.1<br />
0<br />
Half hourly observations from 1 to 5 March<br />
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© 2013, VITO NV
The big challenge of intermittent renewable energy<br />
»<br />
0.5<br />
0.45<br />
0.4<br />
0.35<br />
Capacity factor<br />
0.3<br />
0.25<br />
0.2<br />
0.15<br />
0.1<br />
0.05<br />
0<br />
14 days moving average 2010<br />
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© 2013, VITO NV<br />
Lowest<br />
combined<br />
availability
Modelling approach: How we used the TIMES model<br />
‣ Elastic demand<br />
‣ Security of supply<br />
‣ Extending the temporal resolution to 78 periods in one year = 26 periods of two weeks x<br />
3 periods a day<br />
‣ Reserve capacity requirement (sum of nominal power of biomass plants, geothermal and<br />
storage facilities)<br />
‣ Constraint to assure that BE can be self sustained for 14 consecutive days without<br />
counting on wind and solar<br />
‣ Day-night and seasonal electricity and hydrogen options<br />
‣ Endogenous transmission and distribution network<br />
‣ Curtailment<br />
‣ <strong>In</strong>dustrial demand management (Steel sector)<br />
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© 2013, VITO NV<br />
7
Assumptions<br />
» Belgian GDP: increases at an AAGR of 1.8% in 2010-<strong>2050</strong><br />
» Fuel prices: from the <strong>Energy</strong> roadmap <strong>2050</strong>, Reference scenario, crude oil to<br />
some 127 $’08/bbl in <strong>2050</strong><br />
» Biomass: price of imported biomass increases to some 157 $’08/bbl in <strong>2050</strong><br />
» Carbon price: 15 €/tCO 2 in 2020, 51 €/tCO 2 <strong>by</strong> <strong>2050</strong><br />
» CCS technologies: not allowed<br />
» Nuclear: current legislation on the phasing out of the nuclear power plants<br />
» Electricity imports: limited to 5.8 TWh (average Belgian net imports 2003-<br />
2010)<br />
» Targets: 35% of primary energy in 2030, 65% in 2040, <strong>100%</strong> in <strong>2050</strong><br />
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© 2013, VITO NV
Assumptions on renewable costs<br />
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© 2013, VITO NV
Assumptions on electricity storage costs<br />
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© 2013, VITO NV
Primary energy supply in <strong>2050</strong><br />
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© 2013, VITO NV
Final energy consumption<br />
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© 2013, VITO NV
Electricity production (LHS) and capacities (RHS)<br />
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© 2013, VITO NV
Storage technologies<br />
60<br />
GWh<br />
50<br />
40<br />
30<br />
Electricity -Low -eff<br />
Smart grids<br />
Existing Coo<br />
20<br />
10<br />
GWh<br />
0<br />
3500<br />
3000<br />
2500<br />
2000<br />
1500<br />
2020 2030 2040 <strong>2050</strong> 2020 2030 2040 <strong>2050</strong> 2020 2030 2040 <strong>2050</strong> 2020 2030 2040 <strong>2050</strong><br />
Ref Grid Sol Wind<br />
Hydrogen -Seasonal<br />
Hydrogen-Day Night<br />
1000<br />
500<br />
0<br />
2020 2030 2040 <strong>2050</strong> 2020 2030 2040 <strong>2050</strong> 2020 2030 2040 <strong>2050</strong> 2020 2030 2040 <strong>2050</strong><br />
Ref Grid Sol Wind<br />
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© 2013, VITO NV
Cumulative investment requirements (2013-<strong>2050</strong>)<br />
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© 2013, VITO NV
Cost of renewable energy scenarios (in % GDP <strong>2050</strong>)<br />
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© 2013, VITO NV
Special results: <strong>Renewable</strong>s penetration in electricity sector<br />
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© 2013, VITO NV
Special results: Steel production<br />
» Flexible steel production saves 600 m € in <strong>2050</strong> or 17% of total revenues<br />
of the sector<br />
» Flexible steel production is competitive in wind scenario<br />
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© 2013, VITO NV
Thank you for your attention<br />
Full report via Google: <strong>100%</strong> renewable energy <strong>by</strong> <strong>2050</strong><br />
» Authors :<br />
» Wouter Nijs, wouter.nijs@vito.be<br />
» Jan Duerinck, jan.duerinck@vito.be<br />
» Danielle Devogelaer, dd@plan.be<br />
» Dominique Gusbin, dg@plan.be<br />
» Yves Marenne, yves.marenne@icedd.be<br />
» Marco Orsini, marco.orsini@icedd.be<br />
» Marie Pairon, marie.pairon@icedd.be<br />
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© 2013, VITO NV
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