Global Purchasing Managers Indexes - Dr. Ed Yardeni's Economics ...

Global Economic Indicators:
Global Purchasing
Managers Indexes
Yardeni Research, Inc.
July 31, 2014
Dr. Edward Yardeni
516-972-7683
eyardeni@yardeni.com
Debbie Johnson
480-664-1333
djohnson@yardeni.com
Mali Quintana
480-664-1333
aquintana@yardeni.com
Please visit our sites at
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Table Of Contents
Table Of Contents
Global Composite Indexes 1
Global Manufacturing PMIs 2
Global Non-Manufacturing PMIs 3
Global Manufacturing & Non-Manufacturing PMIs 4-7
Super PMIs 8
Flash Estimates 9-10
July 31, 2014 / Global Purchasing Managers Indexes
Yardeni Research, Inc.
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60
Figure 1.
JP MORGAN GLOBAL COMPOSITE OUTPUT PMI
(50+ = expansion, sa)
Global Composite Indexes
60
55
Jun
55
50
50
45
45
40
40
35
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Source: JP Morgan, Markit, and Haver Analytics.
yardeni.com
35
60
Figure 2.
HSBC EMERGING MARKETS COMPOSITE PMI
(50+ = expansion, sa)
60
55
55
Jun
50
50
45
45
40
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Source: HSBC, Markit, and Haver Analytics.
yardeni.com
40
Page 1 / July 31, 2014 / Global Purchasing Managers Indexes
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70
65
Figure 3.
PURCHASING MANAGERS INDEXES*
Global Manufacturing PMIs
70
65
60
55
Jun
60
55
50
50
45
40
35
30
25
Manufacturing PMIs
United States (55.3)
United Kingdom (57.5)
Eurozone (51.8)
Japan (50.5)
yardeni.com
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
45
40
35
30
25
* An index above 50 indicates an increase in manufacturing activity. An index below 50 indicates a decrease in manufacturing activity.
Source: Institute for Supply Management, CIPS, Markit, and Haver Analytics.
65
Figure 4.
PURCHASING MANAGERS INDEXES*
65
60
60
55
55
50
Jul
50
45
40
35
Manufacturing PMIs
China (51.7)
India (51.5)
Brazil (48.7)
Russia (49.1)
45
40
35
30
yardeni.com
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
30
* An index above 50 indicates an increase in manufacturing activity. An index below 50 indicates a decrease in manufacturing activity.
Source: HSBC, Markit, and Haver Analytics.
Page 2 / July 31, 2014 / Global Purchasing Managers Indexes
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70
65
Figure 5.
Global Non-Manufacturing PMIs
PURCHASING MANAGERS INDEXES*
70
65
60
60
55
Jun
55
50
50
45
40
35
30
25
Non-Manufacturing PMIs
United States (56.0)
United Kingdom (57.7)
Eurozone (52.8)
Japan (49.0)
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2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
45
40
35
30
25
* An index above 50 indicates an increase in manufacturing activity. An index below 50 indicates a decrease in manufacturing activity.
Source: Institute for Supply Management, CIPS, Markit, and Haver Analytics.
70
Figure 6.
PURCHASING MANAGERS INDEXES*
70
65
65
60
60
55
50
Jun
55
50
45
40
Non-Manufacturing PMIs
China (53.1)
India (54.4)
Brazil (51.4)
45
40
35
yardeni.com
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
35
* An index above 50 indicates an increase in manufacturing activity. An index below 50 indicates a decrease in manufacturing activity.
Source: HSBC, Markit, and Haver Analytics.
Page 3 / July 31, 2014 / Global Purchasing Managers Indexes
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70
60
50
Global Manufacturing & Non-Manufacturing PMIs
Figure 7.
PURCHASING MANAGERS INDEXES*
Eurozone
United States
Jun
Jun
60
50
40
Manufacturing
Non-Manufacturing
40
30
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
30
65
70
55
Japan
Germany
60
45
Jul
Jun
50
35
40
25
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
30
65
70
60
55
France
60
50
Jul
Jun
50
45
40
China
40
35
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
30
70
60
60
United
Kingdom
Jun
Italy
Jun
50
50
40
40
30
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
yardeni.com
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
30
* An index above 50 indicates an increase in manufacturing activity. An index below 50 indicates a decrease in manufacturing activity.
Source: Institute for Supply Management, CIPS, HSBC, Markit, and Haver Analytics.
Page 4 / July 31, 2014 / Global Purchasing Managers Indexes
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65
55
45
Global Manufacturing & Non-Manufacturing PMIs
Figure 8.
PURCHASING MANAGERS INDEXES*
United
States
Jun
Eurozone
Jun
60
55
50
45
40
35
Composite of Manufacturing
and Non-Manufacturing PMIs
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
35
30
60
70
50
Japan
Jun
Germany
Jun
60
50
40
40
30
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
30
60
55
50
Jun
France
Jun
60
50
45
China
40
40
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
30
65
60
60
55
50
45
United
Kingdom
Jun
Italy
Jun
55
50
45
40
40
35
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
yardeni.com
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
35
* An index above 50 indicates an increase in manufacturing activity. An index below 50 indicates a decrease in manufacturing activity.
Source: Institute for Supply Management, CIPS, HSBC, Markit, and Haver Analytics.
Page 5 / July 31, 2014 / Global Purchasing Managers Indexes
Yardeni Research, Inc.
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70
65
60
Global Manufacturing & Non-Manufacturing PMIs
Figure 9.
PURCHASING MANAGERS INDEXES*
China
70
65
60
55
50
Jul
55
50
45
40
Manufacturing
Non-Manufacturing
45
40
35
70
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
35
70
65
60
India
65
60
55
50
Jun
55
50
45
45
40
40
35
65
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
35
65
60
Brazil
60
55
55
50
45
Jun
50
45
40
40
35
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
* An index above 50 indicates an increase in manufacturing activity. An index below 50 indicates a decrease in manufacturing activity.
Source: HSBC, Markit, and Haver Analytics.
35
Page 6 / July 31, 2014 / Global Purchasing Managers Indexes
Yardeni Research, Inc.
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65
60
Global Manufacturing & Non-Manufacturing PMIs
Figure 10.
PURCHASING MANAGERS INDEXES*
China
65
60
55
50
Jun
55
50
45
45
40
35
65
60
Composite of Manufacturing
and Non-Manufacturing PMIs
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
India
40
35
65
60
55
50
Jun
55
50
45
45
40
60
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Brazil
40
60
55
55
50
Jun
50
45
45
40
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
* An index above 50 indicates an increase in manufacturing activity. An index below 50 indicates a decrease in manufacturing activity.
Source: HSBC, Markit, and Haver Analytics.
40
Page 7 / July 31, 2014 / Global Purchasing Managers Indexes
Yardeni Research, Inc.
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Super PMIs
65
60
Figure 11.
GLOBAL SUPER PMIs*
(unweighted average)
65
60
55
Jun
55
50
50
45
40
35
65
60
Average of Manufacturing
& Non-Manufacturing
US, UK, & Eurozone
US, UK, Eurozone, Japan, & China
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
GLOBAL SUPER M-PMIs*
(unweighted average)
45
40
35
65
60
55
Jun
55
50
50
45
40
US, UK, & Eurozone
US, UK, Eurozone, Japan, & China
45
40
35
35
30
65
60
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
GLOBAL SUPER NM-PMIs*
(unweighted average)
30
65
60
55
Jun
55
50
50
45
40
US, UK, & Eurozone
US, UK, Eurozone, Japan, & China
45
40
35
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
* An index above 50 indicates an increase in activity. An index below 50 indicates a decrease in activity.
Source: Institute for Supply Management, CIPS, HSBC, Markit, and Haver Analytics.
35
Page 8 / July 31, 2014 / Global Purchasing Managers Indexes
Yardeni Research, Inc.
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Flash Estimates
60
Figure 12.
J.P. MORGAN GLOBAL PMI
(sa)
60
55
Jun
55
50
50
45
45
40
Composite Output (55.4)
Manufacturing (52.7)
Services (55.8)
40
35
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Source: Markit and Haver Analytics.
yardeni.com
35
65
Figure 13.
EUROZONE: PURCHASING MANAGERS
FINAL + FLASH ESTIMATE*
65
60
55
Composite Output Indexes
Eurozone (54.0)
Germany (55.9)
France (49.4)
Jul
60
55
50
50
45
45
40
40
35
yardeni.com
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
35
* An index above 50 indicates an increase in manufacturing activity. An index below 50 indicates a decrease in manufacturing activity.
Source: Markit and Haver Analytics.
Page 9 / July 31, 2014 / Global Purchasing Managers Indexes
Yardeni Research, Inc.
www.yardeni.com

70
65
Figure 14.
Flash Estimates
EUROZONE: MANUFACTURING PURCHASING MANAGERS INDEXES
FINAL + FLASH ESTIMATE*
70
65
60
60
55
55
50
Jul
50
45
45
40
35
30
Manufacturing PMIs
Eurozone (51.9)
Germany (52.9)
France (47.6)
yardeni.com
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
40
35
30
* An index above 50 indicates an increase in manufacturing activity. An index below 50 indicates a decrease in manufacturing activity.
Source: HSBC, Markit, and Haver Analytics.
70
65
60
Figure 15.
EUROZONE: NON-MANUFACTURING PURCHASING MANAGERS
FINAL + FLASH ESTIMATE*
Non-Manufacturing PMIs
Eurozone (54.4)
Germany (56.6)
France (50.4)
70
65
60
55
Jul
55
50
50
45
45
40
40
35
yardeni.com
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
35
* An index above 50 indicates an increase in manufacturing activity. An index below 50 indicates a decrease in manufacturing activity.
Source: HSBC, Markit, and Haver Analytics.
Page 10 / July 31, 2014 / Global Purchasing Managers Indexes
Yardeni Research, Inc.
www.yardeni.com

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