Barry Norris

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Barry Norris

Water Supply Planning &

Dealing with Climate Change

Western States Water Council

Barry Norris

9/26/2008


Fully Appropriated

Summer Flow


Unallocated Winter Flow


Transition Snow Pack

57%


Projected 21 st Century Pacific Northwest Warming

• Warming expected in all seasons

• Mean change: +2°F (2020s), +3°F (2040s)

+1.9ºF

(0.7-3.2ºF)

+2.9ºF

(1.4-4.6ºF)

Changes relative to 1970-1999

From UWash Climate Impacts Group. More detail on the CIG scenarios is available at: http://www.cses.washington.edu/cig/fpt/ccscenarios.shtml


Percent of annual

precipitation falling

as snow

Rainy

CA NV

Snowy

Current climate

(1990-2007)

Lake Tahoe Region

How this was made:

For historical SNOTEL station data, sum of

precipitation on days that average

temperature >0C, >-1C, >-2C etc, divided

by total annual precipitation on days that

temperature was available. Regress

resulting ratio versus elevation. Transform

high spatial resolution elevation dataset by

regression relationship.


Percent of annual

precipitation falling

as snow

Rainy

CA NV

Snowy

Climate +3 deg C

warmer

Lake Tahoe Region

How this was made:

For historical SNOTEL station data, sum of

precipitation on days that average

temperature >0C, >-1C, >-2C etc, divided

by total annual precipitation on days that

temperature was available. Regress

resulting ratio versus elevation. Transform

high spatial resolution elevation dataset by

regression relationship.


Initiative Components

• Assessment of existing and future water

supply needs

• Inventory and of conservation

opportunities

• Inventory of potential storage sites

• Basin-yield estimates

• Match funding for community and regional

water supply planning


Demand Forecast Status

Major Components of Water Demand Forecasting Model

1.

Out-of-Stream Uses

(additive: report individually

and as a sum)

Municipal Systems

+

Household Wells

+

Self-supplied Industry

+

Agricultural Irrigation

2.

Instream Uses

(not additive: report separately)

Hydropower

&

Instream (Surrogate)

Demand is defined as total quantity diverted or extracted from all sources of supply.

Report annual and peak month in each category, in units of both acre-feet and million gallons.

Forecast results at five-year intervals for 2010 - 2040.


State/Regional Water Demand Model

Graph and Table Parameter Selection

Selected Geographic Area Statewide 1

(Forecasting Tool)

Annual Counties Statewide Demand (Base and Override)

Selected Name Counties 2

Selected Month Annual 13

Selected Crop Group TOTAL 16

Selected Municipal/ Domestic

Well Demand Type

Total 1

Display Units Acre-Feet 2

1. Demand

Chart Types (Choose Option)

2. Demand by Major Sectors

Line Chart

Stacked Bar Chart

Acre-Feet

10,400,000

10,200,000

10,000,000

9,800,000

9,600,000

9,400,000

9,200,000

9,000,000

Override

Base

3. Demand for MDI Sectors

4. Show Charts 1, 2, & 3

5. Base & Override Demand

Stacked Bar Chart

Show All

Line Chart

8,800,000

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Years

Annual Counties Statewide Demand (Base) (Acre-Feet)

Years Municipal Systems Domestic Wells Industrial Agricultural Total

Municipal

and

Industrial

2007 539,036 80,295 533,622 7,780,349 8,933,302 1,072,658

2010 559,123 83,242 533,622 7,780,349 8,956,336 1,092,745

2015 595,570 88,750 533,622 7,780,349 8,998,291 1,129,192

2020 634,641 94,600 535,084 7,780,349 9,044,674 1,169,725

2025 671,637 100,215 533,622 7,780,349 9,085,822 1,205,259

2030 709,440 105,917 533,622 7,780,349 9,129,329 1,243,062

2035 746,890 111,610 533,622 7,780,349 9,172,471 1,280,513

2040 786,675 117,749 535,084 7,780,349 9,219,857 1,321,759

2045 825,817 123,870 533,622 7,780,349 9,263,658 1,359,440

2050 868,885 130,566 533,622 7,780,349 9,313,423 1,402,508


Conservation Opportunities

• Statewide

• Project Location

• Project Type

• Project Description

• Estimated Cost

• Water Savings

• Timeline

• Other


Inventory of

Potential Storage

• Information needed to prioritize future projects

• Includes above ground and below-ground

• Below-ground options include:

• Artificial Recharge (AR)

• Aquifer Storage and Recharge (ASR)


Interactive Selection – 1200+ Sites


Area/Capacity Curve

Juniper Canyon Reservoir

Area/Capacity Curve

Area (ac)

750

500

400

300

200

100

0

Capacity

Area

700

650

600

Elevation (ft)

550

500

450

400

350

0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000

Capacity (ac-ft)


Scanned Maps


Underground Storage Assessment Goals:

• Complete a state-wide, desk-level

assessment of geologic suitability

• Assess aquifers’ physical capacity to

accept water with a rating system

• Present results through OWRD website


Methods of Underground Storage

• Infiltration

• Injection


Web presentation of results:

Name

xyz

Aquifer Parameter Database

Lith-

ology

K

ft/d

T

ft 2 /d

b

ft

Rating

abc 10 20 2 25%

PDF’s:

State GW Reports

ASR Studies

Info about existing

projects

Rating System

Results and

Discussion

Available on the web July 2009


Columbia River “Water

Availability”

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

-------------------- cfs --------------------

Bonneville 15,015 24,030 24,744 46,681 264,345 266,440 172,464 133,581 114,365 118,532 -24,731 90

McNary 15,015 24,030 24,744 -71,000 -11,000 -1,000 -33,000 -72,000 108,000 111,000 -24,731 90

• At 50% exceedance

• After considering target flows for fish


1976

1991

1990

1990


Sand Hollow/Umatilla Basin Recharge

• Phase I

Scope Project

Prioritize Development

• Phase II

Select High Priority/Most Feasible For Immediate

Implementation

Site Interpretation

Develop Conceptual Model

• Phase III

Columbia River Recharge/Limited License

Monitoring

Verify Conceptual Model


1976

1991

1990

1990


Deep

Ordnance

Basalt

Aquifer

Shallow

Alluvial

Aquifer

Deep

Stage Gulch

Basalt Aquifer

Shallow

Alluvial

Aquifer

Shallow

Alluvial

Aquifer

Deep

Butter Creek

Basalt

Aquifer


27

Umatilla Recharge Project

30 July 2008


Regional & Community-Based

Water Supply Planning

1. Water Supply Solutions

2. Special Program Needs


Regional & Community-Based

Water Supply Planning

• Stakeholder Diversity/Citizen

Involvement

• Efforts to Address Regional Supply

Issues

• Efforts that Concurrently Address

Water Quality/Land Use

• Local Government Representation

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