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Download PDF - Centraal Planbureau

Download PDF - Centraal Planbureau

• The importance of

• The importance of investments in education, infrastructure and environment for the distribution of welfare over generations is explicitly addressed. Some results of this new study are discussed in 3.5. Since 2002, the analysis of sustainability of Dutch public finance has been incorporated in the analysis of election plans and (provisional) coalition agreements (see section 2.5). As a consequence, the consequences of these alternative policies (e.g. cuts in transfer programs and specific tax increases) for sustainability of public finance are made explicit before elections are held or before the coalition agreement of the new government becomes final. For some years, the European Commission publishes regularly estimates of the sustainability of its member states’ public finance using a common methodology. The CPB analysis is more advanced, more focused on taking into account the specific features of the Dutch economy and institutions (e.g. including the tax revenues from funded pension benefits) and more up to date (e.g. taking into account all recent policy measures). As a consequence, the published results may differ substantially. Such national analyses are crucial to understand the underpinning, implications and uncertainty of such standard European analyses (e.g. what does the assumption of unchanged policy agreements entail in other countries) and to provide good input for European fiscal policy discussions. 2.5 Analysis of election plans of Dutch political parties In March 2010, the CPB compared the election plans of nine Dutch political parties and analysed their economic consequences (see CPB, 2010). Figures 2.1 and 2.2 provide an overview of their budgetary choices and table 2.4 gives an overview of the major economic consequences; these include consequences for the environment. It is obviously not possible to sum up the ideas and measures of parties in respect of a certain field under a single indicator. The analysis covers numerous indicators for each subject and even then the analysis remains of a general nature. Parties can also achieve a similar result through completely different interventions. Two examples: accessibility can be improved by investing in roads, but also by introducing road pricing. Prosperity gains are attainable in the housing market by limiting tax relief on mortgage interest, but also by liberalising the rented homes market. Parties make completely different choices in this respect. 24

Figure 2.1 Budgetary choices by 9 Dutch political parties in 2010: Six major policy functions (net change in public expenditure and taxes and premiums, euro bln) 6 euro billions 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 -8 -10 -12 social security healthcare education public administration taxes and premiums, households taxes and premiums, companies CDA PvdA SP VVD PVV GL ChrU D66 SGP Figure 2.2 Budgetary choices by 9 Dutch political parties in 2010: Seven other policy functions (net change in public expenditure, euro bln) 2 euro billions 1 0 -1 -2 -3 -4 -5 security defence mobility environment international cooperation transfers to companies other CDA PvdA SP VVD PVV GL ChrU D66 SGP 25

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