The Future European Energy System - Ea Energianalyse

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The Future European Energy System - Ea Energianalyse

Future Energy Scenarios for EU27 in 2030

Towards

50% oil reduction

50% CO2 emissions reduction

Prepared by

The Danish Board of Technology

RISØ DTU

Ea Energy Analyses

Strasbourg, 23 April 2008


Future Energy Scenarios for EU27 in 2030

Purpose

– To provide a general understanding of challenges, barriers and

opportunities

– Advise on needed policies and measures

Approach

– EU-27 technology scenarios for 2030 illustrating barriers, challenges and

opportunities

– Key measures: more efficient energy use and renewable energy

– Use the STREAM tool developed in the project “The future Danish

Energy System” by the Danish Board of Technology

Two concrete goals

1. Reduce CO2 emissions by 50 per cent compared to the 1990-level

2. Reduce oil consumption by 50 per cent compared to the present level


Process of dialogue

Politicians

Answers

Utilities

Energy planners

Project

developers

Researchers

Questions

Others


Phase I

Phase II

Workshop

Dinner debate

Final workshop

MEPs

Stakeholders

Experts

-Energy

-Transport

-Savings

MEPs

Dialogue on

- targets

- measures

- scenarios

Scenario report

Road-map

Model tool+data

Public model tool

Draft report

Updated tool, data, and scenarios

Website

Dissemination

Nov/Dec.

2007

Feb. - March

April - May

2008

Sep. - Oct.


Five regional scenarios

West

North

+

one

aggregated

EU scenario

Central

East

South


Developing scenarios

Economic

growth

Fuel

prices

Saving

potentials

STOA

Scenario

RESULTS

Infrastructure

Technology

Development

Renewable

resources


STREAM was developed

STREAM

in cooperation

model

between:

The Danish TSO (Energinet.dk),

The major Danish power producer (DONG Energy),

• Consultants EA Energy Analyses Ltd. and

• Risø National Laboratory Energy flow for Sustainable model Energy, Technical

University of Denmark.

STREAM has been further developed to cover all EU-27 countries.

- Each country can be modelled individually or in groups of countries.

Characteristics

Energy

demand

model

System

balance

model

1. It includes the whole energy system

2. It is fast to use (changing of scenarios during a meeting)

3. Publicly available - transparent


Key assumptions

• Economic growth rate as in DG Tren baseline

from 2005 – approx. 2 % p.a. for EU 27

• STOA reference close to DG Tren baseline

• IEA fuel prices

PJ


Main measures in scenarios

Energy Savings

– Buildings, appliances

– Industry

• Transport

– Reduce fuel consumption of conventional cars/lorries

– Increase share of electric cars and plug-in hybrids

– Modal change: car/lorry => bike/train/bus/ship

• Exploit potentials for district heating

• Best available technologies


Main measures in scenarios

• Renewable energy

– Utilize all potentials for wind, bioenergy and municipal waste

– Solar and wave (more expensive)

• Nuclear

– As in DG Tren baseline

• Fossil fuels

– Reduced according to increased use of renewables


Energy savings


Large potentials…

Saving potential

Description

Heating existing

buildings

42 % Improved insulation etc.

Lighting 65 % Compact fluorescent lighting

Water heating 65 %

Major appliances 40-60 %

Small appliance

standby

40 %

High efficient electric water heater and

solar water heater

Increasing appliance efficiency

standards at 2-3% per year

Reduce standby power req. of

televisions, set-top boxes etc.

Source:

McKinsey

Eurima

…difficult to harvest

EPC (European Policy Centre) – Gain without pain: towards a more rational use

of energy:

• New policy measures are needed + active use of existing directives, such as

the Eco-Design Directive.

• Third-party financing (such as ESCO’s) should be promoted.

• All public sector organizations should have ambitious targets (including the

European Institutions).

• Metering and individual pay by the user is important.


Energy intensity

Energy consumption per GDP

TJ / MEUR

50

45

40

35

30

25

20

15

10

5

0

Bulgaria

Romainia

Slovak Republic

Estonia

Czech Republic

Lithuania

Hungary

Poland

Latvia

Slovenia

Finland

Malta

Cyprus

Belgium

Greece

Portugal

Spain

The Netherlands

Sweden

France

Luxemburg

Germany

Italy

Austria

United Kingdom

Ireland

Denmark


TJ/MEUR

Energy intensity in the 6 countries with lowest intensity

compared to EU 27 average energy intensity

9

8

7

20 % lower energy

consumption per GDP

6

5

4

3

2

1

0

EU 27 average energy intensity

Germany

UK

Italy

Ireland

Denmark

Austria

Average of the 6 MS with lowest energy

intensity


Liters of oil per m 2

Building regulation

- new buildings

Average

energy

consumption

in Danish

buildings


kWh/year

kWh/år

Appliances

Example: refrigerators and freezers

800

700

600

500

400

Køleskab Refrigerator

Fryser Freezer

300

200

100

0

New nyt 1975 New nyt 1988

New nyt 2001 Best Bedst 2006 06


End use energy efficiency

• Efficiency improvements in

reference and in scenarios

Percentage saving

compared to

today’s level

Energy form

Efficiency improvement

in DG Tren and

reference

Additional savings in

scenarios

Tertiary Electricity 20-30 10-20

Heating 20-30 6-10

Industry Energy 20-30 10-16

Residential Electricity 20-35 10-20

Heating 20-40 7-15


PJ/year

Final energy demand 2030 EU 27 reference and scenario

20000

18000

16000

14000

Reference

Scenario

12000

10000

8000

6000

4000

2000

0

Transport Residential Tertiary Industry


Transport


Transport: efficiency improvements

g/km

200

180

160

140

Average sold car in EU

120

100

80

60

Average car in EU27

scenario

40

20

0

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035


Today’s efficiency potential


Alternative fuels

Electric vehicles share

Region Cars Trucks/Cargo

North

25% 20%

Central

20% 20%

South

15% 15%

West

20% 15%

East

15% 20%

Biofuel: 5 %

Gas: 5 %


Modal change

Goods

Lorry => train and ship

Passengers

Car => train, bus, bike

Approx. 8 % of transport work shifted


District heating


District heating

District heat as share of final energy demand, excl. transport

35%

30%

25%

20%

15%

10%

5%

0%

Finland

Lithuania

Denmark

Estonia

Latvia

Poland

Czech Republic

Sweden

Bulgaria

Slovenia

The Netherlands

Slovak Republic

Romainia

Hungary

Austria

Portugal

Spain

Germany

Italy

United Kingdom

France

Belgium

Greece

Luxemburg

Ireland

Cyprus

Malta


District heating

2% => 18%

5% => 16%

16% => 26% 6 %

=>

19 %

12% => 23%

Today => scenario

0 % => 17 %

Share of final

energy demand,

excl. transport


Renewable energy


Renewable energy

for electricity Production


Bioenergy – share of gross energy consumption


Bioenergy

33 %

25 %

19 %

23 %

30 %

Share of gross

energy cons.

Includes Municipal

Solid Waste

24 %


Wind Power

Wind power as share of total electricity consumption

25%

20%

15%

10%

5%

0%

Denmark

Spain

Germany

Ireland

The Netherlands

Portugal

Greece

Austria

Luxemburg

United Kingdom

Sweden

Italy

Finland

Cyprus

Belgium

Latvia

Estonia

France

Lithuania

Poland

Czech Republic

Romainia

Hungary

Malta

Slovak Republic

Slovenia

Bulgaria


Wind power

20 %

16 %

23 %

20 %

6 %

Share of electricity

production

15 %


Current use of solar energy


Solar heating

2 %

5 %

2 %

4 %

3 %

Share of gross

energy

consumption

11 %


Solar electricity

5 %

Share of electricity

production

Incl. Photovoltaics, CSP


General results


PJ/year

RE resources utilised in EU 27 scenario

10000

9000

8000

7000

Potential 2030

Utilised in scenarios

6000

5000

4000

3000

2000

1000

0

Biomass (EEA)

Biogas (Green-X) CSP (SET Plan)

+ photovoltaic

(Green-X)

Wind (Green-X)

Municipal waste

(EEA)


Mix of fuels for power production in the scenario for 2030

100%

90%

80%

70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

Wave energy

Geothermal Power

PV/CSP

Municipal Waste

Biogas

Biomass

Wind Power

Natural Gas

Coal

Nuclear

Oil

10%

0%

EU 27 North South Central West East


PJ

90,000

Gross energy consumption

EU 27

80,000

70,000

60,000

50,000

40,000

30,000

20,000

10,000

-

10767

4955

18417

9266

10065

22872

9235

10376

20758

13455 13238 12185

23350 23061 22645

9069

22041

10342

4223

12131

Nuclear

RE

Natural gas

Coal

Oil

50% oil target

2005 2030 DG TREN Reference

2030

Scenario 2030


CO2-emissions

- EU 27

m. tCO2 / year

4,500

4,000

3,500

3,000

2,500

2,000

1,500

Other energy

Electricity and

district heat

Transport

50% CO2 target

1,000

500

-

1990 2005 2030 DG

TREN

Reference

2030

Scenario

2030


Economic results

• Annuitized value of the entire energy system in the

scenario year (2030) i.e.

– the average annual capital costs

– costs for fuels, operation and maintenance, CO2-costs

• Not considered

– Health benefits

– Cost of modal change and efficiency in transport

– Transaction costs related to implementation

• Technology and fuel costs may divert from projections

Therefore: interpret results with caution


Economy – base case

Annuitised cost

- extra costs in scenario compared to reference

million €

200,000

150,000

100,000

50,000

0

-50,000

-100,000

-150,000

-200,000

Fuel and CO2 Maint. Capital cost Total

Oil: 62 $/bbl

CO2: 20 €/ton

-0.1 % of GDP


Economy – sensitivity

million €

200,000

150,000

100,000

50,000

0

-50,000

-100,000

-150,000

-200,000

-250,000

-300,000

-350,000

Annuitised cost

- extra costs in scenario compared to reference

Fuel and CO2 Maint. Capital cost Total

Oil: 110 $/bbl

CO2: 20 €/ton

-0.7 % of GDP


PJ

Results for a region – Case: South

Gross energy consumption

Gross energy consumption (South)

20000

18000

16000

14000

12000

10000

8000

6000

4000

2000

0

971

633

2382

685

2642

1077

3925

5327

4968

527

2098 2258

5908

2167

1643

7099 6845 6355

761

3287

2005 2030 DG TREN Reference 2030 Scenario 2030

Oil Coal Natural gas RE Nuclear 50% oil target


CO2-emissions

mio. tCO2 / year

CO2-emissions (South)

1200

1000

800

600

400

200

0

1990 2005 2030 DG TREN Reference 2030 Scenario 2030

Transport Electricity and district heat Other energy Storage CO2 50% CO2 target


General conclusions

• CO2 and oil reduction targets for 2030 can be

met

• Requires

– Efficiency improvements incl. transport sector

– Utilization of available RE resources

– Infrastructure (electricity, district heating)

– Intelligent energy system

– Research, development and demonstration

• Economy

– Sensitive to fuel and CO2-prices

– Modest cost/benefits compared to total GDP


Next steps


Developing scenarios

Economic

growth

Fuel

prices

Saving

potentials

Implemen

tation

Infrastructure

Technology

Development

Renewable

resources


Technology lifetime

2030

Buildings

Infrastruct.

Power plants

Wind turbines

Cars

Appliances

10

20

30

40 Years


Municipalities/

cities

Goals

EU’s quota system

To utilise practical experience

Planning – Infrastructure for electricity, natural gas and district heating

Taxes and incentives

Research, Development and Education

Transnational planning of

offshore windmills

City planning and

transport policies

Green

Campaigns

Local

Commitment

CO2 Neutral

Houses

Existing

buildings

Urban districts

To develop

energy efficient

vehicles

Energy labelling and

dynamic norms

Demonstration of flexible energy system

Consumers - Producers

Hydro Wind District Heating

Public Purchase Policy

Electric/plug-in

hybrid cars/buses

Intelligent Energy System

Global

EU Member states Local

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