Critical Thinking and Intelligence Analysis

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How Can Intelligence Analysts Employ Critical Thinking........48 The Poor Record..............................................................48 Assessing Evidence............................................................51 Facilitating Evidentiary Assessment................................. 56 Embracing a Methodology.............................................. 57 Creating Better Inferences............................................... 58 Producing Intelligence..................................................... 59 How can Analysts be Taught to Think Critically...................... 61 Critical Thinking Education Outside the Intelligence Community......................... 61 Critical Thinking Education Inside the Intelligence Community............................ 64 Implications of Teaching Critical Thinking.................... 66 Evaluating Teaching Models........................................... 68 Encouraging Analysts to Think Critically....................... 69 Persuading to Improve Analysis....................................... 70 How Does Critical Thinking Transform................................... 74 Transforming Intelligence Corporations......................... 74 Learning from Early Adopters......................................... 75 The Costs and Benefits of Thinking Critically................ 76 Validation......................................................................... 84 What Other Points of View Exist.............................................. 86 What Does the Future Hold....................................................... 90 Conclusion................................................................................... 95 Appendix: NSA’s Critical Thinking and Structured Analysis Class Syllabus................................. 97 Bibliography.............................................................................. 117 About the Author....................................................................... 133 Colophon................................................................................... 134 – iv –
Figures and Tables Figure 1: A Comparison of Inductive, Deductive, and Abductive Reasoning...................................... 5 Figure 2: Elements of Thought..................................................... 9 Figure 3: A Continuum of Intellectual Standards....................... 10 Figure 4: Levels of Questioning: Critical Thinking in a Social Setting..................................... 17 Figure 5: Respective Ranges of Soviet SS-4 MRBM and SS-5 IRBM Missiles.......................................................... 22 Figure 6: A Place for Analysis between Dogmatism and Criticism...................................................... 28 Figure 7: Detail of a U-2 Photograph of an SS-4 MRBM Launch Site, San Cristobal, Cuba, 14 October 1962........... 30 Figure 8: U-2 Tracks over Cuba, 4–14 October 1962................. 32 Table 1: A Comparison of Different Sets of Critical Thinker’s Competencies........................................... 14 Table 2: Applying Paul and Elder’s Critical Thinking Model to the Situation in Cuba, August–September 1962............... 27 Table 3: A Comparative Assessment of Rival Motivations............... 38 Table 4: Goals and Outcomes in the Cuban Missile Crisis......... 44 Table 5: How Analysts Decide..................................................... 50 Table 6: Cooper’s Analytic Pathologies...................................... 82 Table 7: Analysis: Past, Present and Future................................. 92 – –
Page 2 and 3: The National Defense Intelligence C
Page 5: Contents Figures and Tables........
Page 10 and 11: - viii -
Page 12 and 13: As one would expect, the Intelligen
Page 14 and 15: - xii -
Page 16 and 17: quality by looking at the products
Page 18 and 19: Commentary Francis J. Hughes Profes
Page 20 and 21: That said, clever defense lawyers o
Page 22 and 23: Robert Heibel, Mercyhurst College;
Page 25 and 26: CRITICAL THINKING AND INTELLIGENCE
Page 27 and 28: CRITICAL THINKING AND INTELLIGENCE
Page 29 and 30: Figure 1 models analysts’ thinkin
Page 31 and 32: ecome better critical thinkers will
Page 33 and 34: - and consequences - things that do
Page 35 and 36: approach ensures that a topic or is
Page 37 and 38: Skill-Based Definitions Other appro
Page 39 and 40: A Disposition to Think Critically I
Page 41 and 42: The Role of Questions Greg Treverto
Page 43 and 44: problem solving and structured meth
Page 45 and 46: In fact, the Soviets were able to d
Page 47 and 48: It should be noted that the U.S. In
Page 49 and 50: thwarted What can be learned to adv
Page 51 and 52: Purpose · Determine what is going
Page 53 and 54: critical thinking could moderate th
Page 55 and 56: Cuba” that led to the tasking of
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A missile-launching complex is not
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(mapping), evaluate and adapt the i
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Winners and Losers: The Crisis in C
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as seen from Khrushchev’s Point o
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the Soviet Union’s communist agen
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supporting forces, an escalation of
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in the hands of the West. If, as Al
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most recent failure. Critical think
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was not enough. 117 Biases and mind
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asked, as they realized they had no
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person, the analysis was faulty bec
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undermines or supports the particul
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to meet short deadlines. However, a
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the FBI investigated a pond in west
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How can Analysts be Taught to Think
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young analysts were unable to do so
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it out on their own, encouraged by
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instructional models offer compleme
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Another means of critical thinking
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time constraints, multiple versions
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they were required to examine. 173
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As Denning points out, these strate
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of thinking. For example, two video
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intelligence agencies. 191 This was
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thinking, however, by providing str
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Cooper’s Analytic Pathology Negle
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substantially better judgments abou
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item limit is easily extended: peop
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Finally, it may be a fallacy that c
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partnerships between analysts and t
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1990s and 2000s Emergence of comple
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Conclusion Never before in our peac
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Appendix NSA’s Critical Thinking
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Administration: Enrollment: Up to 2
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against which to apply/illustrate w
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mindsets impact analysis. • Defin
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• Describe what is needed to move
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Class 4 - Causes, Squares, and Shru
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Class 6 - Testing the Devil’s and
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Class 8 - And Now for Something Com
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Class 10 - Final Project Presentati
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Final Project Evaluation Worksheet
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Bibliography Ackerman, Robert K.
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Cheikes, Brant A., Mark J. Brown, P
Page 145 and 146:
__________. Building Airplanes in F
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Grabo, Cynthia M. Anticipating Surp
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Kerbel, Josh. “Thinking Straight:
Page 151 and 152:
Miller, Judith. “A Battle of Word
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Paul, Richard W., Linda Elder, and
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Stefik, Mark, and Barbara Stefik. B
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About the Author David T. Moore is
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