Hurricane Modeling - Department of Atmospheric Sciences - Texas ...

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Hurricane Modeling - Department of Atmospheric Sciences - Texas ...

Hurricane Modeling

R. Saravanan 1 , Jenshan Hsieh 1 , Jaison Kurian 2 , Zhao Xu 2

Christina M. Patricola 1 , Ping Chang 2,1 , Raffaele Montuoro 3 ,

1

Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Texas A&M University

2

Department of Oceanography, Texas A&M University

3

Supercomputing Facility, Texas A&M University

Image: Hurricane Katrina from NOAA GOES 8/28/2005, 1545z


Why model hurricanes

• Forecast the track and intensity of individual

hurricanes

• Outlook for the next hurricane season

• Projections of changes in hurricane activity for the next

decade and beyond


How do we model hurricanes

• Statistical models

• Regional computer models

• Global computer models


Computer Model

Global climate model grid size: 50-100 km


Hurricane-ocean interaction


75m ocean temperatures in September 2005

(Katrina & Rita)


Sea surface heights in August 2012 (Isaac)


Texas A&M Coupled Regional Climate Model

(TAMU-CRCM)

• Regional atmospheric model coupled to regional ocean

model

• Downscaling with proper representation of air-sea

feedbacks

• Lateral boundary conditions from global climate model

or reanalyses


Domain Grid(XYZ) ∆XY ∆t

WRF 130 ◦ W-25 ◦ E, 33 ◦ S-52 ◦ N 1537x1123x27 9km 20s

ROMS 98 ◦ W-21 ◦ E, 33 ◦ S-52 ◦ N 1391x1123x30 9km 600s


Iso-surface of perturbation pressure

(color: sea surface temperature, arrows: winds)


1 km

3 km

9 km

27 km

(W/m 2 )


Future of hurricane modeling

• Improved data collection

– Drone measurements, new satellites

• Better utilization of data

– Advanced data assimilation techniques

• Models with finer grid spacing

– Better than 1 km regional, 10km global

• Better representation of air-sea interaction

– Interaction with the loop current

• Climate change

Hurricanes in the distant past and in the near future

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