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Weather, Climate & Global Forest Observation - Group on Earth ...

ong>Weatherong>, ong>Climateong> and ong>Globalong> ong>Forestong>

ong>Observationong>s

Riccardo Valentini

University of Tuscia

) Department for innovation in biological, agro-food and forest systems (DIBAF)

Euromediterranean Center for ong>Climateong> Change


GEOSS Strategic Target Relevant to Carbon & ong>Forestong>:

From the Target on ong>Climateong>: Development and facilitation of a comprehensive

(atmosphere, ocean, land) global carbon observation and analysis system in support of

monitoring based decision-making and related environmental treaty obligations.

From the Target on Agriculture: Increased use of Earth observing capabilities and

supporting applications systems to produce timely, objective, reliable, and transparent

forest statistics and information at the national and regional level. Improved

collaboration and coordination on the use and applications of Earth observations for

forestry.

From the Target on Ecosystems: Increased operational monitoring of major ecosystems

on land on an annual basis, including properties such as biomass and carbon estimates

of vegetation and soils based on remote sensing and sampled in-situ observations using

internationally agreed standards.


The probability to

stay within 2°C as

function of

cumulative CO2

emission until

2050

2050

Meinshausen et al. 2009


Human Perturbation of the ong>Globalong> Carbon Budget

2000-2010

(PgC y -1 )

7.9±0.5

1.0±0.7

2.5±1.0

(Residual)

4.1±0.2

2.3±0.5

(5 models)

ong>Globalong> Carbon Project 2011; Updated from Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature G; Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS


Fate of Anthropogenic CO 2 Emissions (2010)

9.1±0.5 PgC y -1

5.0±0.2 PgC y -1

50%

2.6±1.0 PgC y -1

+

0.9±0.7 PgC y 26%

-1

Calculated as the residual

of all other flux components

(1990-2000) 55%

24%

2.4±0.5 PgC y -1

Average of 5 models

ong>Globalong> Carbon Project 2010; Updated from Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience; Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS


GEO

CARBON

ICOS – the network

• A distributed network of stations with European coverage

• Operationnal in 2014

• Wall-to-wall European + North Atlantic coverage

• to quantify regional greenhouse gas fluxes (10km / daily)

• Same sensors deployed at all stations

• Centralized and near real time data processing

• Standards compatible with international systems : GEOSS, WMO, GTOS

• Backbone data for operational flux modelling

Atmospheric stations Ecosystem stations Ocean ship and stations

7


Large and Consistent ong>Globalong> ong>Forestong> Carbon Sink

Pan et al. 2011, Science


Emissions from Land Use Change (1850-2010)

CO 2 emissions (TgC y -1 )

1800

1600

1400

1200

1000

800

600

400

200

0

-200

-400

Tropical

Temperate

Time (y)

R.A. Houghton 2010, personal communication; GFRA 2010


The biggest uncertainties

Land Clearing

and Land Use

Insects/Diseases

Drought

Wildfire


REDD+ - Monitoring Reporting and Verification

Good job on ong>Forestong> Area – Great challenge for Biomass estimation

LIDAR BIOMASS AND

STRUCTURE ESTIMATION


C-stock aboveground

Selective logging and ong>Forestong> degradation

140000,00

120000,00

100000,00

80000,00

Camerun

Ghana

60000,00

40000,00

20000,00

0,00

PF SLF20 SF20 SLF2T

ong>Forestong> type


GEOSS Strategic Target for ong>Climateong>

Improved scientific understanding, modelling and prediction of climate. Accessibility of

all the observational data needed for climate monitoring and services in support of

adaptation to climate variability and change. Availability of all Essential ong>Climateong>

Variables (ECVs) needed by the WCRP, the IPCC and the UNFCCC.

GEOSS Strategic Target for ong>Weatherong>

ong>Weatherong>: Improvements in the range and quality of services for high-impact weather

forecasting due to the design, future development, and operation of global observing,

data assimilation, numerical modelling, and user application techniques. More accurate,

reliable and relevant weather analyses, forecasts, advisories and warnings of severe

and other high-impact hydro-meteorological events enabled by enhanced observational

capabilities


GTOS – TOPC XII

Status of Standards and Guidelines for Terrestrial ECVs

Terrestrial ECVs

•T1 River Discharge

•T2 Water Use

•T3 Ground Water

•T4 Water Level

•T5 Snow Cover

•T6 Glaciers and Ice Caps

•T7 Permafrost

•T8 Albedo

•T9 Land Cover

•T10 FAPAR

•T11 LAI

•T12 Above-ground biomass

•T13 Fire Disturbance

•T14 Soil Moisture


Extreme weather events depicted by long term observations

(Coumou and Ramshtorf, 2012 Nature)


Fc [mol m-2 s-1]

Extreme climate events or disturbances have a strong

effect on biosphere-astmosphere exchanges

September

October

November

December

January

Februaryr

Marchr

April

May

June

July

August

September

October

Annual mean 1850-2000: 35 M m3 of forest wood damaged by

natural disturbances in Europe.

53% wind throw

16% fire

16% biotic (insects)

3% snow

5% other abiotic

Tatra Experiment CarboEurope

10

Mean day on monthly base

5

0

-5

-10

EX

IF

NEX

-15

-20

-25


Methane Fluxes observations – Role of wetlands and tropical areas

Frankeberg et el. 2008


N2O emissions

estimates

Thompson et al. 2012-submitted


Key messages

1. Improving global monitoring of forests is essential to understand the future

climate and the additional burden on anthropogenic emission reduction

2. Biomass monitoring (not only areas changes) are foundamental for

addressing MRV in REDD+ mechanisms. Great challenge for research.

Need more EU involvement (ESA Biomass mission)

3. Expansion of climate related space and “in situ” observations to CH4 and

N2O fluxes into the atmosphere. (Need more EU research “in situ”

observations and networks)

4. Inter annual variability of weather extremes are of paramount importance

for addressing vulnerabilities of our societies. Role and importance of

seasonal and decadal predictions (EU climate services)

5. Integration of space and “in situ observations” across a range of spatial

and temporal scale. Improve of Data Assimilation Systems. Improve role

of systematic obbservations infrastructure with increasing complexity. (EU

strenghtening ESFRI initiatives)

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