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CHRISTIAN STOLTENBERG - HU Berlin

CHRISTIAN STOLTENBERG - HU Berlin

CHRISTIAN STOLTENBERG - HU

CHRISTIAN STOLTENBERG Institute of Economic Policy I Office Phone: +49 30 2093-5935 Humboldt-University Berlin German Cell: +49 177 705-5783 Spandauer Str. 1 US Cell: +1 612 232-8971 10178 Berlin christian.stoltenberg@staff.hu-berlin.de Germany http://www2.wiwi.hu-berlin.de/institute/wpol/html/staff/Christian.html PLACEMENT DIRECTOR Professor Harald Uhlig Tel.: +1 773 702-8191 huhlig@uchicago.edu PERSONAL Date of Birth: October 22, 1974 Citizenship: German EDUCATION Humboldt-University Berlin, Ph.D. in economics, July 2008 (expected) Visiting Ph.D. Student at the University of Minnesota, 2007 Ph.D. program in economics at Ludwig-Maximilians-University Munich, 2002-2003 University of Cologne, M.A. in economics, 2002 RESEARCH INTERESTS Primary: Macroeconomics, Monetary Economics Secondary: Contract Theory, Bayesian Econometrics DISSERTATION TITLE “Essays on the Optimal Conduct of Monetary Policy” JOB MARKET PAPER POLICY ANNOUNCEMENTS AND WELFARE with Vadym Lepetyuk In this paper we show that the announcement of information can be detrimental to welfare. We consider an economy in which agents face idiosyncratic and aggregate risk. The policy maker learns about the aggregate shock before it directly impacts on the allocation, and can decide to announce that information early. Agents engage in risk-sharing contracts consistent with voluntary participation incentives. By early announcements the policy maker distorts agents’ insurance possibilities, thereby increasing the variance of the optimal consumption allocation and worsening welfare ex-ante. As a particular application, we consider the problem of a monetary authority, which has the option of announcing shifts in the inflation target early. In this economy, monetary policy has real effects captured by a cash-in advance constraint. A fraction of firms need to set prices one period in advance, so that a late announcement of inflation target shifts results in welfare-reducing distortions of relative prices, if no idiosyncratic risk is present. However, with idiosyncratic risk of households – modeled as employment opportunities – we show that it may be better for the central bank to remain secretive.

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