High Food Price Impact Assessment and Analysis - WFP Remote ...

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Objectives Overall Objective is to develop a Country Action Plan that will include a Government/UN Appeal for short term assistance though consultative process with all involved (AU.....etc.) Country Action Plans Several dimension included in Plans: 1) Humanitarian assistance: social safety nets 2) Boost agricultural production (short term leading to longer term solutions) 3) Policies to respond to high food prices 4) Budget adjustment (assist countries) African countries: Burkina Faso, Mauritania, Sierra Leone, Madagascar (completed) (Ongoing), Somalia, Gambia others completed: Pakistan, Cambodia, Haiti, DPRKorea) Some under discussion Some lessons learned Very important to have presence of members of all partners to ensure maximum synergy Government commitment crucial Share information with all partners of findings of missions Challenge: how to merge CAADP process with ongoing actions of e.g. IFI ? Follow up in country essential Flexible and integrated in on-going programmes Thank you! 39
NEPAL Market and Price Impact Assessment Siemon Hollema Nepal facts • Political perspective: - Emerging after a 10 yr conflict - Weak and ineffective government structures - Serious law and order problems - UNMIN mission • Economic and Development perspective - Heavily reliance on food and oil imports - Export restrictions imposed by India - High level of chronic food insecurity (41% undernourished) and poverty (31%) - High share of expenditure on food (average 59%, poorest 73%) - Recurrent national disasters - Constraints in agricultural (accessibility, underinvestment, mechanization, seed and fertilizer use, irrigation) Objectives of the analysis Market and Price Impact Analysis • To quantify the magnitude of the recent increase in food prices. • To assess the future outlook in different parts of the country • To understand the likely impact on household food security. • To make recommendations for government and humanitarian interventions. Methodology • Primary data: - FSMAS field monitors and NDRI enumerators - Market survey: 406 retailers and 193 wholesalers - Household survey: 611 households in market catchment areas - Rapid urban survey (216 households - 10 slum households and 2 relative better off households, 90 urban traders) • Secondary data: - Department of Agriculture, FNCCI, Nepal Rastra Bank and Ministry of Finance • Geographical coverage - 40 districts - 6 urban cities (Biratnagar, Birgunj, Nepalgunj, Dhangadhi, Kathmandu and Pokhara) • 6 month recall - Prior to October 2007, food price increases were marginal - Pre-harvest period for paddy (highest prices of key commodities) - India introduced the export ban Findings • Seasonal price variation normally show a 11% and 5% drop in the price of rice and wheat flour during this time of year. • More substantial increase in wholesale prices. • Change on farm gate prices between 13 to 24% for paddy. • Immediately following the survey, fuel prices were increased by 25% or more. • Indian ban has pushed up prices in Nepal. ‣ Substantial further price rise expectations, especially in urban areas. Wheat flour Lentil Coarse rice Cooking oil 6 % 17 % 19 % 26 % Change in real (1995/96) retail prices Impact on household food security • Household food purchasing power has declined (term of trade ↓). • Shift in consumer purchasing behaviour. • Negative relationship between consumption intake, coping intensity and price increase. • Development of a food price vulnerability index: - Land access index - Food expenditure index - Income source index • Those with already unacceptable low consumption intake were identified for immediate support (2.5 million rural and 67,000 urban) Nepal: Rural urban Significant losers 42.2 % 9.7 million 525,000 Marginal losers 41.2 % 9.5 million Marginal winners 14.3 % 3.3 million Significant winners 2.3 % 0.5 million 40
Page 1 and 2: High Food Price Impact Assessment a
Page 3 and 4: Executive Summary Since the price c
Page 5 and 6: - Getting a rigorous answer to the
Page 7 and 8: 4 Cross-Cutting Issues and Recommen
Page 9 and 10: • Extreme variety in the availabi
Page 11 and 12: Recommendations: 1) Use institution
Page 13 and 14: o Reports and data available need t
Page 15 and 16: - WFP will further share informatio
Page 17 and 18: Annex 1: Workshop Agenda Facilitato
Page 19 and 20: 16:00 - 16:15 Coffee Break Session
Page 21 and 22: Volli Carucci WFP/OMXD volli.carucc
Page 23 and 24: Annex 4: Note for the Record: Follo
Page 25 and 26: • Objectives of the analyses: ‣
Page 27 and 28: II. From int’l to domestic food p
Page 29 and 30: IV. Response: 6 A’s A broad-based
Page 31 and 32: A country profile: Nepal Expenditur
Page 33 and 34: Outline Nutritional Impact: Methodo
Page 35 and 36: Probability of Being Undernourished
Page 37 and 38: Background Where? • Seven souther
Page 39: DAY 2 Inter Agency Assessment Missi
Page 43 and 44: Liberia Joint High Food Price Impac
Page 45 and 46: Likely impact on Ugandan households
Page 47 and 48: EF(3): Recommendations • Be alert
Page 49 and 50: Determinants of high food prices Im

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