the presentation - Clean Business International

cleanbusinessinternational.com

the presentation - Clean Business International

201200607 clean economy living planet Brussels.pptx

1

Clean Economy, Living Planet

Clean Business International

Johannesburg, October 3, 2012


THE ENERGY REPORT / WWF 2011

SOURCE: Bridgette Meinhold, Desertec Foundation, 2009

© WWF-Canon – Libya, North Africa

3

If 0.3% of the Sahara Desert was a

concentrated solar plant, it would power all of

Europe.


THE ENERGY REPORT / WWF 2011

SOURCE: Mark Z. Jacobson and Mark Delucchi, Can we switch to 100 percent clean, renewable energy by 2030?, Stanford and UC Davis,

2009

© WWF-Canon – Wind sculpted tree, Alberta Canada

4

The potential for wind energy production is 15

times greater than what is needed to power the

world


THE ENERGY REPORT / WWF 2011

SOURCE: M.M. Bernitsas, et al., Vortex Induced Vibration Aquatic Clean Energy): A New Concept in Generation of Clean and Renewable

Energy from Fluid Flow‖ OMAE ’06

© WWF-Canon – : Coast of Oregan

5

If we could harness 0.1% of all of the energy in

the ocean, we could serve the energy needs of

15 billion people.


THE ENERGY REPORT / WWF 2011

SOURCE: NREL, Geothermal—The Energy Under Our Feet, Technical Report NREL/TP-840-40665 November 2006

© WWF-Canon – Kilauea_Volcano,_Hawaii_Volcanoes_National_Park,_Hawaii

6

The energy potential found 3 km below the

earth’s surface is equivalent to a 30,000-year

supply of energy at the current rate of US

consumption.


9

The Cleantech ranking, a survey of barriers and international best

practices, has led to four insights for national Cleantech sectors

Cleantech country

ranking

> What is the evolution of

the Cleantech sector?

> What is the position of

countries in the

Cleantech ranking?

> Which countries are the

fast climbers and which

are the top 3 Cleantech

countries?

Cleantech barriers

> Survey of 90 International

Cleantech companies on

barriers

International best practices

> Analysis of the best

practices of the top

countries

> Analysis of the best

practices of the fastest

growing countries

3 insights in Cleantech growth

> Countries aiming to grow

their cleantech sectors have

to pay attention to 3 key

success factors


We include sales of most clean energy technologies for all EU-27,

G7 countries and BRICS countries

Scope for cleantech market assessment

Power generation Energy efficiency

CET countries

• Wind power

– Onshore

– Offshore

• Solar power

– PV Solar

– Thermal Solar

– Concentrated

Solar Power

• Biomass

– Biomass (cofiring)

– Biogas

– Biofuels (diesel

and ethanol)

• Hydropower

– Osmotic power

– Wave and tidal

power

• Geothermal power

• Micro Combined Heat

Power

• Insulation

• Heat pumps and

heating, air-conditioning

• CFL Lighting

• Led lighting

• Fuel cells

E-mobility

• Battery

• Power electronics

• Electric power train

CET countries

• EU 27

• United States

• Brazil

• China

• India

• Russia

• South Africa

• Canada

• Mexico

• Indonesia

• Australia

• South Korea

• Taiwan

• Japan

Source: Roland Berger

10


Source: Roland Berger analysis

11

The cleantech industry grew by 10% to reach a size of EUR 198 bn

in 2011 and will rival the oil and gas equipment market by 2015

Global cleantech market [EUR bn]

Growth

p.a.

31% 1)

10%

5-10%

Market sizes of comparable sectors

in 2015 [EUR bn]

240-290

Industrial machinery

340

179

198

Oil & gas equipment

290

104

Cleantech

240-290

2008 2010 2011 2015

forecast

1) From 2008 to 2010, per annum figure

Consumer electronics

Industrial machinery

250

200


Wind, solar PV, biomass and energy efficiency are the three main

segments, growing between 4% and 22% in 2011

Segmentation of the global cleantech market [EUR bn]

Segmentation

Solar PV

45

+11%

50

Energy

efficiency

24%

26%

Wind

Wind

50

+4%

52

Other

renewables

3%

Biomass

40

+5%

42

Biomass

21%

25%

Solar PV

∑ EUR 198 bn

Energy efficiency

39

+22%

47

2010 2011

Source: Roland Berger analysis

12


China and the US are the largest cleantech producers and show

high growth

Cleantech sales around the world [EUR bn]

Ranking

2011 2010 Top 5 fastest climbers, 2010-2011

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

25

(1)

(2)

(3)

(4)

(5)

(6)

(7)

(9)

(10)

(8)

(15)

(11)

(12)

(14)

(13)

(22)

(16)

(17)

(--)

(18)

(21)

(20)

(19)

(--)

(23)

Sales increased in 2011

Sales declined in 2011

China

United States

Germany

Japan

Brazil

Denmark

Spain

South Korea

India

France

Taiwan

United Kingdom

Italy

Belgium

Netherlands

Canada

Poland

Austria

Norway

Russia

Sweden

Finland

Czech Republic

Indonesia

Hungary

13 13

0

15

30

45

60

China

United States

South Korea

India

Taiwan

0

15

30

Value in

2010

45

+ 29%

p.a.

+ 17%

p.a.

+ 19%

p.a.

+ 19%

p.a.

+ 36%

p.a.

60

Value in

2011

Source: Roland Berger analysis

13


Compared to the size of the economy, Denmark still has the

highest cleantech sales – The US has advanced to number 15

Cleantech sales weighted by GDP [EUR, %]

Ranking

2010

2011

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

25

(1)

(2)

(3)

(4)

(8)

(6)

(7)

(-)

(11)

(15)

(5)

(10)

(13)

(12)

(17)

(16)

(19)

(--)

(14)

(9)

(18)

(23)

(20)

(21)

(26)

Sales increased in 2011

Sales declined in 2011

Denmark

China

Germany

Brazil

South Korea

Czech Republic

Spain

Slovenia

Latvia

Taiwan

Lithuania

Belgium

Finland

Japan

United States

India

Hungary

Norway

Poland

Austria

Netherlands

Sweden

France

Slovakia

Bulgaria

0%

1% 2% 3%

Top 5 fastest climbers, 2010-2011

China +18%

p.a.

South Korea

Latvia

Taiwan

United States

0%

Value in

2010

+15%

p.a.

+33%

p.a.

+30%

p.a.

+16%

p.a.

2%

Value in

2011

Source: Roland Berger analysis

14


Four frontrunner have created a clear distance in terms of growth

between themselves and the pack

Cleantech growth

Cleantech value growth

'08-'10 [EUR %]

100

80

60

40

20

0

-20

PACK

Taiwan

Italy

Netherlands India

Finland Canada

Austria

Belgium

Spain

Denmark

United Kingdom Sweden

France

Brazil

Greece

South Korea

FRONTRUNNERS

Japan

Germany

China

United States

-40

Source:

-3.000 -2.000 -1.000 0 1.000 2.000 3.000 12.000 30.000 31.000

Size indicates total value added

[EUR bn]

Roland Berger analysis

Cleantech value added difference 2008 – 2010

[EUR m]

15


China is successfully building its cleantech base, the US is catching

up, but the EU is starting to dwindle

Sales [EUR bn] Sales rel. to GDP [%]

Segmentation 2011

1.

CHINA

14

44

+30%

57

2010 1.4%

2011 1.7%

Energy

efficiency

Other

Bio

fuels

25%

30%

35%

Wind

Solar

2.

3.

EUROPEAN

UNION

UNITED

STATES

40

21

2008

-5%

50 47

+17%

32 37

2010 2011

2010 0.4%

2011 0.4%

2010 0.3%

2011 0.3%

Energy

efficiency 20%

Other

Bio

fuels

Energy

Efficiency

Bio

fuels

15%

50%

Wind

40%

Solar

Wind

Solar

Source: Roland Berger analysis

16


In the cleantech race, the stakes are high – EUR 19-80 bn is in play

across the three regions

Regions' manufacturing value in base case and best case, 2015 [EUR bn]

EUROPEAN UNION

UNITED STATES

CHINA

Best

case

57-69

Best

case

69

Best

100-163

case

47

Stake of EUR

19-31 bn

Base

case

38

37

Stake of EUR

24-28 bn

Base

case

41-45

57

Stake of EUR

30-80 bn

Base

case

70-83

2011

2015

2011

2015

2011

2015

Base case – manufacturing value if current policies continue

Best case – maximum potential if recommendations are implemented

Source: Roland Berger analysis

17


Very

important

Not

importantant

PRIOIRTY

We have asked international companies what the main obstacles

are for increasing support for cleantech

Importance of barriers

Important but

specific barriers

INNOVATION

NEEDS

Important and

INSUFFICIENT general barriers

FINANCING UNSTABLE

REGULATION

INTERNAL

ORGANIZATIO

N

MARKET

DEVELOPMEN

T

Survey 90 International companies

VALUE CHAIN

ISSUES

Non-essential

barriers

Infrequently

mentioned

FOSSIL

ALTERNATIVES

FREQUENCY

Irrelevant

general barriers

Often

mentioned

Source:

Roland Berger analysis

18


19

China scores well on key success factors for cleantech growth

PRODUCT LIFE CYCLE

KEY SUCCESS

FACTOR

R&D –

develop

ideas and

concept

Proof of

prototype

Develop

first

product

Market

entry

Expansion

and growth

1

Consistent

government support

Consistent government

support 5-year plans

Carbon Intensity: 40~45%

reduction (2020)

Non fossil fuel energy mix:

15% (2020)

2

Availability of funding

Finance sector support

Green credit Guidelines

support growth in investment

(2012) Since 2010 > 40

Billion USD loan guarantees

3

(Home) market

Home market vs Export

market

Shift from orientation on

export market to developing

home market. 2015: 100GW

wind, 15GW of solar


20

Donald Pols, Director WWF ―China for a

Global Shift‖

dpols@wwfchina.org

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