Business Case for the SunShine CoaSt airport Master Plan

Business Case for the Sunshine Coast Airport n Master Plan (November 2009)
This results in a reduced payload,
particularly when considering trans-
Tasman flights.
The proposed new east-west runway
13/31 will provide a take-off distance
of 2,450 metres in each direction
with a runway width of 45 metres,
opening up the airport to a range
of wide-bodied aircraft servicing
international operations. The airport
is currently constrained in the amount
and type of industries that can be
attracted to this port from an aviation
perspective as the larger aircraft
cannot be accommodated on the
current runway. The new east-west
runway is expected to provide greater
opportunity.
03.4 Projected
passenger demand
A thorough study of the SCA and
its anticipated traffic growth was
commissioned and undertaken by
TFI and published in August 2009.
The study examined several different
scenarios for traffic growth. These are
summarised below.
■■
Current runway scenarios based
on continued use of the existing
runway with its limitations:
––
central version based on
economic assumptions as
outlined in this report; and
––
high and low versions based
largely on variations in
economic assumptions and
implications.
■■
A new east-west runway 13/31
runway scenarios that allow for:
––
recovery of a proportion of
flights lost due to weather/wind
conditions and the narrow
runway. This amounts to 2.5
per cent of passengers per
year;
––
increased route options and
no restrictions on trans-
Tasman activity; and
––
Additional passengers
resulting from this scenario
are added to the baseline
forecasts.
The TFI study concluded
passenger movements would
increase from approximately
912,000 passengers in 2008/09
to between 2.1 million and 2.8
million by 2029/30.
These figures are based upon
assumptions for the central ‘current
runway’ and ‘new east-west runway
18/31’ scenarios and are outlined in
the below table.
Years end 30 June 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2020 2025 2030
Base case scenario
‘000s pax
Central 912 929 966 1,002 1,040 1,101 1,162 1,456 1,741 2,051
Low 883 901 943 989 1,037 1,084 1,299 1,501 1,710
High 947 1,009 1,076 1,139 1,217 1,297 1,662 2,031 2,444
High+NZ Services 947 1,009 1,076 1,161 1,272 1,374 1,800 2,197 2,614
Annual change
Central (0.1%) 1.8% 4.0% 3.7% 3.8% 5.9% 5.5% 4.6% 3.6% 3.3%
Low (3.2%) 2.0% 4.7% 4.8% 4.9% 4.6% 3.7% 2.9% 2.7%
High 3.8% 6.5% 6.7% 5.8% 6.9% 6.5% 5.1% 4.1% 3.8%
High+NZ Services 3.8% 6.5% 6.7% 7.8% 9.6% 8.0% 5.5% 4.1% 3.5%
New runway scenarios
‘000s Pax
Central 912 952 990 1,027 1,066 1,128 1,191 1,689 2,205 2,804
Low 905 923 967 1,013 1,063 1,111 1,381 1,658 1,943
High 970 1,034 1,103 1,167 1,247 1,329 2,064 2,784 3,605
Annual change
Central (0.1%) 4.3% 4.0% 3.7% 3.8% 5.9% 5.5% 7.2% 5.5% 4.9%
Low (0.8%) 2.0% 4.7% 4.8% 4.9% 4.6% 4.4% 3.7% 3.2%
High 6.4% 6.5% 6.7% 5.8% 6.9% 6.5% 9.2% 6.2% 5.3%
Table 2 Projected passenger demand for Sunshin Coast Airport.
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