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<strong>Canadian</strong> <strong>Mining</strong><br />

<strong>Industry</strong> <strong>Employment</strong><br />

<strong>and</strong> <strong>Hiring</strong> <strong>Forecasts</strong><br />

2010<br />

A <strong>Mining</strong> <strong>Industry</strong> Workforce<br />

Information Network Report


This project is funded in part by the Government of Canada’s Sector Council Program.<br />

The opinions <strong>and</strong> interpretations in this publication are those of the author <strong>and</strong> do not necessarily reflect those<br />

of the Government of Canada.<br />

Copyright © 2010 <strong>Mining</strong> <strong>Industry</strong> Human Resources Council (<strong>MiHR</strong>)<br />

All rights reserved. The use of any part of this publication, whether it is reproduced, stored in a retrieval system,<br />

or transmitted in any form or by means (including electronic, mechanical, photographic, photocopying or recording),<br />

without the prior written permission of <strong>MiHR</strong> is an infringement of copyright law.<br />

For more information, contact:<br />

<strong>Mining</strong> <strong>Industry</strong> Human Resources Council<br />

260 Hearst Way, Suite 401<br />

Kanata, Ontario K2L 3H1<br />

Tel: 613 270 9696<br />

Fax: 613 270 9399<br />

Email: research@mihr.ca<br />

Or visit the website at:<br />

www.mininghrforecasts.ca<br />

www.mihr.ca<br />

Published July 2010


Table of Contents<br />

Executive Summary................................................................................................................... 1<br />

<strong>Industry</strong> Context.................................................................................................................................................... 2<br />

The Model for Forecasting <strong>Employment</strong> <strong>and</strong> <strong>Hiring</strong> Requirements..................................................................... 2<br />

National <strong>Forecasts</strong> of <strong>Employment</strong> <strong>and</strong> <strong>Hiring</strong> Requirements............................................................................. 2<br />

Regional <strong>Forecasts</strong> of <strong>Employment</strong> <strong>and</strong> <strong>Hiring</strong> Requirements............................................................................ 3<br />

Occupational <strong>Forecasts</strong> of <strong>Employment</strong> <strong>and</strong> <strong>Hiring</strong> Requirements...................................................................... 5<br />

Addressing the Challenge...................................................................................................................................... 5<br />

1 Introduction......................................................................................................................... 7<br />

Background....................................................................................................................................... 8<br />

Overview of the Report........................................................................................................................ 8<br />

2 Overview of the <strong>Canadian</strong> <strong>Mining</strong> Workforce............................................................................ 9<br />

Definition <strong>and</strong> Economic Overview of the <strong>Canadian</strong> <strong>Mining</strong> <strong>Industry</strong>......................................................... 9<br />

<strong>Industry</strong> Definition <strong>and</strong> Scope............................................................................................................................ 9<br />

Economic Overview......................................................................................................................................... 10<br />

<strong>Mining</strong> Labour Market Trends............................................................................................................ 11<br />

<strong>Employment</strong>.................................................................................................................................................... 12<br />

Labour Productivity.......................................................................................................................................... 13<br />

Educational Attainment.................................................................................................................................... 15<br />

<strong>Employment</strong> Relations..................................................................................................................................... 16<br />

Turnover................................................................................................................................................... 16<br />

Compensation, Wages <strong>and</strong> Hours Worked................................................................................................. 17<br />

Unionization............................................................................................................................................. 19<br />

Use of Contractors.................................................................................................................................... 20<br />

An Aging Workforce.......................................................................................................................... 20<br />

Retirement...................................................................................................................................................... 21<br />

2010 <strong>Employment</strong> <strong>and</strong> <strong>Hiring</strong> <strong>Forecasts</strong><br />

i


Workforce Participation Rates <strong>and</strong> Diversity........................................................................................ 22<br />

Women in <strong>Mining</strong>............................................................................................................................................ 22<br />

Aboriginal Participation in <strong>Mining</strong>..................................................................................................................... 24<br />

New <strong>Canadian</strong>s in <strong>Mining</strong>................................................................................................................................ 25<br />

Summary......................................................................................................................................... 26<br />

3 Forecasted <strong>Hiring</strong> Requirements in the <strong>Canadian</strong> <strong>Mining</strong> <strong>Industry</strong>............................................ 27<br />

Development of the Model................................................................................................................. 27<br />

Assumptions.................................................................................................................................... 28<br />

National <strong>Hiring</strong> Requirements <strong>Forecasts</strong>.............................................................................................. 29<br />

<strong>Forecasts</strong> by Occupation................................................................................................................... 31<br />

Regional <strong>Hiring</strong> Requirements <strong>Forecasts</strong>............................................................................................. 34<br />

Atlantic Region................................................................................................................................................ 35<br />

Quebec............................................................................................................................................................ 37<br />

Ontario............................................................................................................................................................ 39<br />

Prairie Region.................................................................................................................................................. 41<br />

British Columbia.............................................................................................................................................. 43<br />

Territories........................................................................................................................................................ 44<br />

4 Discussion......................................................................................................................... 47<br />

Making the Best Use of All Possible Sources of Talent .......................................................................... 47<br />

Increasing Productivity..................................................................................................................... 48<br />

Appendix A............................................................................................................................................ 49<br />

Appendix B............................................................................................................................................ 51<br />

ii<br />

<strong>Mining</strong> <strong>Industry</strong> Workforce Information Network


List of Tables <strong>and</strong> Figures<br />

Table 1 Total <strong>Hiring</strong> Requirements <strong>Forecasts</strong> – Canada................................................................................................ 3<br />

Table 2 Total <strong>Hiring</strong> Requirements <strong>Forecasts</strong> – By Region............................................................................................ 4<br />

Table 3 Cumulative <strong>Hiring</strong> Requirements <strong>Forecasts</strong> – By Broad Occupational Categories............................................. 5<br />

Table 4 Canada’s Top 10 Minerals by Value of Production, 2008................................................................................ 12<br />

Table 5 Proportion of <strong>Mining</strong> Workforce of Aboriginal Descent.................................................................................... 25<br />

Table 6 Key Forecast Assumptions............................................................................................................................ 28<br />

Table 7 Total <strong>Hiring</strong> Requirements <strong>Forecasts</strong> – Canada.............................................................................................. 30<br />

Table 8 Cumulative <strong>Hiring</strong> Requirements <strong>Forecasts</strong> – Canada.................................................................................... 31<br />

Table 9<br />

Cumulative <strong>Hiring</strong> Requirements – By Broad Occupational Categories<br />

<strong>and</strong> Relevant <strong>Mining</strong> Occupations................................................................................................................. 32<br />

Table 10 Total <strong>Mining</strong> <strong>Employment</strong> by Region.............................................................................................................. 35<br />

Table 11 Cumulative <strong>Hiring</strong> Requirements <strong>Forecasts</strong> – Atlantic Region........................................................................ 36<br />

Table 12 Cumulative <strong>Hiring</strong> Requirements of Top 10 Occupations in Atlantic Region.................................................... 37<br />

Table 13 Cumulative <strong>Hiring</strong> Requirements <strong>Forecasts</strong> – Quebec.................................................................................... 37<br />

Table 14 Cumulative <strong>Hiring</strong> Requirements of Top 10 Occupations in Quebec................................................................ 39<br />

Table 15 Cumulative <strong>Hiring</strong> Requirements <strong>Forecasts</strong> – Ontario.................................................................................... 39<br />

Table 16 Cumulative <strong>Hiring</strong> Requirements of Top 10 Occupations in Ontario................................................................ 40<br />

Table 17 Cumulative <strong>Hiring</strong> Requirements <strong>Forecasts</strong> – Prairie Region.......................................................................... 42<br />

Table 18 Cumulative <strong>Hiring</strong> Requirements of Top 10 Occupations in Prairie Region...................................................... 42<br />

Table 19 Cumulative <strong>Hiring</strong> Requirements <strong>Forecasts</strong> – British Columbia...................................................................... 43<br />

Table 20 Cumulative <strong>Hiring</strong> Requirements of Top 10 Occupations in British Columbia.................................................. 44<br />

Table 21 Cumulative <strong>Hiring</strong> Requirements <strong>Forecasts</strong> – Territories................................................................................ 44<br />

Table 22 Cumulative <strong>Hiring</strong> Requirements of Top 10 Occupations in the Territories...................................................... 45<br />

2010 <strong>Employment</strong> <strong>and</strong> <strong>Hiring</strong> <strong>Forecasts</strong><br />

iii


Figure 1 Value of <strong>Canadian</strong> Mineral Production, 1998–2008...................................................................................... 11<br />

Figure 2 <strong>Mining</strong> <strong>Employment</strong> <strong>and</strong> the Minerals Price Index (MPI)............................................................................... 13<br />

Figure 3 Labour Productivity <strong>and</strong> <strong>Employment</strong>........................................................................................................... 14<br />

Figure 4 Labour Productivity in Canada’s North......................................................................................................... 14<br />

Figure 5 Proportion of <strong>Mining</strong> Workforce by Highest Level of Educational Attainment................................................. 15<br />

Figure 6 Hourly Total Compensation Rates by Region................................................................................................ 17<br />

Figure 7 Average Benchmark Hourly Wages for Select Job Titles in <strong>Mining</strong>, by Commodity Produced........................ 18<br />

Figure 8 Weekly Hours Worked in <strong>Mining</strong>, Canada <strong>and</strong> Regions, 1988–2008............................................................. 18<br />

Figure 9 Unionization Rates: Forestry, Fishing, <strong>Mining</strong>, <strong>and</strong> Oil <strong>and</strong> Gas, 1997 to 2008............................................... 19<br />

Figure 10 Age Group Distribution in <strong>Canadian</strong> <strong>Mining</strong> <strong>Industry</strong> in 2006........................................................................ 21<br />

Figure 11 Proportion of <strong>Mining</strong> Workforce Eligible to Retire......................................................................................... 22<br />

Figure 12 Proportion of Women in Natural Resource Industries.................................................................................... 23<br />

Figure 13 Proportion of Women in Select <strong>Mining</strong> Occupations..................................................................................... 23<br />

Figure 14 Aboriginal Communities <strong>and</strong> Active <strong>Mining</strong> <strong>and</strong> Exploration Sites................................................................. 24<br />

Figure 15 Annual <strong>Hiring</strong> Requirements <strong>Forecasts</strong> – Canada......................................................................................... 30<br />

Figure 16 Total <strong>Hiring</strong> Requirements <strong>Forecasts</strong> – Atlantic Region................................................................................. 36<br />

Figure 17 Total <strong>Hiring</strong> Requirements <strong>Forecasts</strong> – Quebec............................................................................................ 38<br />

Figure 18 Total <strong>Hiring</strong> Requirements <strong>Forecasts</strong> – Ontario............................................................................................. 40<br />

Figure 19 Total <strong>Hiring</strong> Requirements <strong>Forecasts</strong> – Prairie Region.................................................................................. 41<br />

Figure 20 Total <strong>Hiring</strong> Requirements <strong>Forecasts</strong> – British Columbia.............................................................................. 43<br />

Figure 21 Total <strong>Hiring</strong> Requirements <strong>Forecasts</strong> – Territories......................................................................................... 45<br />

Figure A1 <strong>Employment</strong> <strong>and</strong> <strong>Hiring</strong> Requirements Forecasting Model........................................................................... 49<br />

Acknowledgements<br />

The <strong>Mining</strong> <strong>Industry</strong> Human Resources Council (<strong>MiHR</strong>) wishes to convey its appreciation to the organizations that<br />

contributed their knowledge <strong>and</strong> insights to the development of this report. <strong>MiHR</strong> is grateful to all survey respondents<br />

for their valuable input <strong>and</strong> time in filling out the survey.<br />

We thank you, our Board of Directors, industry stakeholders <strong>and</strong> the Government of Canada for your continued guidance<br />

<strong>and</strong> commitment in addressing the mining HR challenge.<br />

iv<br />

<strong>Mining</strong> <strong>Industry</strong> Workforce Information Network


Executive Summary<br />

The <strong>Canadian</strong> mining industry is highly competitive on the world stage <strong>and</strong> has the potential to remain successful well<br />

into the future. Nations in rapid development phases, such as China <strong>and</strong> India, will continue to need the raw resources<br />

that <strong>Canadian</strong> mining companies provide. This potential, however, is threatened by looming labour shortages <strong>and</strong> other<br />

human resources issues facing the sector. Several labour market trends are impacting the availability <strong>and</strong> quality of<br />

labour in mining; most notably the aging workforce, productivity, <strong>and</strong> challenges in attracting new talent to the sector.<br />

A two-faceted approach will have the greatest impact in addressing existing <strong>and</strong> expected human resources shortages:<br />

(i) making the best use of all available sources of labour <strong>and</strong> (ii) increasing productivity. To fill the talent gap, continued<br />

efforts to attract <strong>and</strong> retain youth, women, new <strong>Canadian</strong>s <strong>and</strong> Aboriginal peoples will provide access to previously<br />

untapped sources of talent. In addition, the need to replace retiring workers, combined with a depleted labour pool from<br />

which to draw, will increasingly force the industry to rely on improved productivity to maintain economic performance.<br />

Productivity increases, in turn, will have to come through investments in training <strong>and</strong> education, as well as through<br />

innovation <strong>and</strong> technological advances.<br />

This report provides the foundation for a structured <strong>and</strong> strategic approach to workforce development. The report is<br />

divided into two main sections. The first provides an economic overview <strong>and</strong> examines the labour market trends affecting<br />

the industry. The second presents the forecasted changes in employment <strong>and</strong> hiring requirements at the national,<br />

regional <strong>and</strong> occupational level — over a two-, five-, <strong>and</strong> 10-year horizon. Finally, observations about the forecasts<br />

<strong>and</strong> labour market trends provide insight into proactive ways to address the human resources challenges confronting<br />

the industry.<br />

2010 <strong>Employment</strong> <strong>and</strong> <strong>Hiring</strong> <strong>Forecasts</strong><br />

1


<strong>Industry</strong> Context<br />

Compared with other sectors, employment in mining is highly volatile. Changes in total employment are directly related<br />

to international commodity prices <strong>and</strong> inversely related to gains in productivity. When coupled with a rapidly aging<br />

workforce <strong>and</strong> lack of growth in the <strong>Canadian</strong> labour force, the outlook is grim. The sector will face significant<br />

challenges in the near future in finding the right people to fill vacant positions.<br />

The Model for Forecasting <strong>Employment</strong> <strong>and</strong> <strong>Hiring</strong> Requirements<br />

Model development is an ongoing, iterative process. The current version of the <strong>Mining</strong> <strong>Industry</strong> Human Resources<br />

Council’s (<strong>MiHR</strong>) forecasting model used here represents a culmination of rigorous model development over the past<br />

five years. Detailed discussion of the model <strong>and</strong> its underlying assumptions are included in Chapter 3 <strong>and</strong> Appendix A.<br />

The forecasting model combines changes in employment due to economic factors <strong>and</strong> replacement requirements to<br />

obtain total hiring requirements. Changes in employment reflect fluctuations in commodity prices (based on prevalent<br />

consensus forecasts), gains in productivity, <strong>and</strong> the previous year’s employment. Replacement requirements are based<br />

on retirement rates (calculated based on the age distribution of the workforce <strong>and</strong> assuming an average retirement<br />

age of 59.5 years) <strong>and</strong> non-retirement separation rates.<br />

Three scenarios were developed to forecast national, regional <strong>and</strong> occupational hiring requirements over a 10-year<br />

time horizon. The baseline scenario uses a consensus forecast for the fluctuation of commodity prices <strong>and</strong> productivity<br />

changes. The expansionary scenario assumes greater-than-expected growth in commodity prices <strong>and</strong> productivity,<br />

while the contractionary scenario assumes lower-than-expected growth.<br />

National <strong>Forecasts</strong> of <strong>Employment</strong> <strong>and</strong> <strong>Hiring</strong> Requirements<br />

<strong>Forecasts</strong> for Canada are produced by summing the changes in employment <strong>and</strong> hiring requirement across the six regions<br />

in consideration.<br />

Under the baseline scenario, the <strong>Canadian</strong> mining industry will have to hire 100,000 new workers by the end of 2020<br />

to satisfy replacement needs <strong>and</strong> to fill new positions. If commodity prices perform better than expected (the expansionary<br />

scenario), the cumulative hiring requirements could reach nearly 135,000 workers. Even under the contractionary<br />

scenario, the industry would still need to hire approximately 56,000 workers over the coming decade.<br />

Table 1 shows the cumulative change in employment <strong>and</strong> hiring requirements under the baseline scenario in 2010, 2012,<br />

2015 <strong>and</strong> 2020. As shown, replacement requirement exceeds the change in employment attributable to commodity prices<br />

<strong>and</strong> labour productivity gains to create positive cumulative hiring requirements in the short-, medium- <strong>and</strong> long-term.<br />

2 <strong>Mining</strong> <strong>Industry</strong> Workforce Information Network


Table 1<br />

Total <strong>Hiring</strong> Requirements <strong>Forecasts</strong> – Canada<br />

Baseline Scenario – 2010, 2012, 2015, 2020<br />

REGION<br />

YEAR<br />

CHANGE IN<br />

EMPLOYMENT<br />

REPLACEMENT REQUIREMENTS<br />

RETIREMENT<br />

NON-RETIREMENT<br />

CUMULATIVE<br />

HIRING<br />

REQUIREMENTS<br />

Canada<br />

2010 −1,000 3,710 3,980 6,690<br />

2012 3,400 13,580 12,100 29,080<br />

2015 −3,500 32,600 24,050 53,150<br />

2020 −8,600 65,290 43,300 99,990<br />

Source: <strong>Mining</strong> <strong>Industry</strong> Human Resources Council, Summer 2010.<br />

For Canada as a whole, cumulative hiring requirements represent nearly 50 per cent of the 2009 employment level,<br />

with hiring needs predicted to increase at a pace of two to five per cent annually across the forecast period.<br />

Regional <strong>Forecasts</strong> of <strong>Employment</strong> <strong>and</strong> <strong>Hiring</strong> Requirements<br />

<strong>Employment</strong> <strong>and</strong> hiring requirement forecasts were conducted for six regions:<br />

• Atlantic<br />

• Quebec<br />

• Ontario<br />

• Prairies<br />

• British Columbia<br />

• Territories<br />

Comparisons of hiring requirements between regions should be approached with caution, particularly given that<br />

the various factors influencing the forecast model differ from region to region. In addition, major differences exist in<br />

employment <strong>and</strong> hiring requirements across regions, based on workforce age profiles <strong>and</strong> on forecasts of commodity<br />

prices <strong>and</strong> labour productivity. For these reasons, separate forecasts are produced for each region, with the main<br />

drivers of the hiring requirements discussed in each corresponding section of the report.<br />

As shown in Table 2, cumulative hiring requirements vary significantly among regions. This is partly due to the size of<br />

the existing mining workforce in each region but is also driven by regional variations in age composition. Indeed, efforts<br />

in hiring are heavily dependent not only on regional context but on a wide range of factors.<br />

<strong>Employment</strong> growth differs among regions. In most cases, the hiring requirements are driven by replacement needs.<br />

However, in the Prairies, total employment is predicted to grow over the forecast period. As a result, cumulative hiring<br />

requirements for this region are a result of both growth <strong>and</strong> replacement requirements.<br />

2010 <strong>Employment</strong> <strong>and</strong> <strong>Hiring</strong> <strong>Forecasts</strong><br />

3


Table 2<br />

Total <strong>Hiring</strong> Requirements <strong>Forecasts</strong> – By Region<br />

Baseline Scenario – 2010, 2012, 2015, 2020<br />

REGION<br />

YEAR<br />

CHANGE IN<br />

EMPLOYMENT<br />

REPLACEMENT REQUIREMENTS<br />

RETIREMENT<br />

NON-RETIREMENT<br />

CUMULATIVE<br />

HIRING<br />

REQUIREMENTS<br />

Atlantic<br />

Quebec<br />

Ontario<br />

Prairies<br />

British<br />

Columbia<br />

Territories<br />

2010 −120 220 210 310<br />

2012 −380 770 630 1,020<br />

2015 −1,350 1,750 1,220 1,610<br />

2020 −2,750 3,230 2,070 2,530<br />

2010 −4,280 830 750 −2,700<br />

2012 −2,640 3,180 2,320 2,850<br />

2015 −6,650 7,520 4,510 5,370<br />

2020 −8,060 14,650 7,890 14,450<br />

2010 310 950 880 2,140<br />

2012 −1,790 3,490 2,580 4,280<br />

2015 −4,920 8,430 4,950 8,480<br />

2020 −7,600 16,820 8,650 17,910<br />

2010 2,650 1,130 1,650 5,430<br />

2012 7,210 4,190 5,110 16,500<br />

2015 9,410 10,540 10,460 30,400<br />

2020 10,570 22,190 19,470 52,250<br />

2010 360 520 410 1,290<br />

2012 470 1,720 1,240 3,440<br />

2015 −620 3,810 2,440 5,650<br />

2020 −1,470 7,300 4,340 10,200<br />

2010 260 60 70 390<br />

2012 650 230 230 1,100<br />

2015 730 550 470 1,740<br />

2020 690 1,100 870 2,650<br />

Source: <strong>Mining</strong> <strong>Industry</strong> Human Resources Council, Summer 2010.<br />

The pace of growth in hiring needs also differs among regions. In both the Prairies <strong>and</strong> the Territories, the bulk of hiring<br />

requirements will occur earlier in the forecast period than in the rest of Canada. However, hiring requirements in the<br />

Territories will involve fewer workers, with total requirements of 2,650 people. This is largely because the share of the<br />

mining workforce employed in the Territories is relatively small. The Prairie region is expected to have the largest hiring<br />

requirement in Canada: 52,250 workers by 2020.<br />

4 <strong>Mining</strong> <strong>Industry</strong> Workforce Information Network


Occupational <strong>Forecasts</strong> of <strong>Employment</strong> <strong>and</strong> <strong>Hiring</strong> Requirements<br />

This report also estimates hiring requirements by occupation, both nationally <strong>and</strong> by region. In all regions, the greatest<br />

hiring requirements will occur in Trades <strong>and</strong> Undesignated Occupations, where approximately 31,980 workers will be<br />

needed across Canada. This represents almost a third of the total hiring requirement by 2020. As shown in Table 3,<br />

the other broad occupational categories expected to be in high dem<strong>and</strong> are Supervisors, Coordinators <strong>and</strong> Foremen;<br />

Professional <strong>and</strong> Physical Science Occupations; <strong>and</strong> Technical Occupations.<br />

In terms of specific occupations, hiring requirements are projected to be highest for heavy equipment operators,<br />

truck drivers, <strong>and</strong> underground production <strong>and</strong> development miners.<br />

Table 3<br />

Cumulative <strong>Hiring</strong> Requirements <strong>Forecasts</strong> – By Broad Occupational Categories<br />

Baseline Scenario – 2012, 2015, 2020<br />

2012 2015 2020<br />

Trades <strong>and</strong> Undesignated Occupations 9,165 16,660 31,979<br />

Supervisors, Coordinators <strong>and</strong> Foremen 1,798 3,281 6,258<br />

Professional <strong>and</strong> Physical Science Occupations 1,094 1,989 3,810<br />

Technical Occupations 909 1,657 3,204<br />

Support Workers 835 1,509 2,777<br />

Managers <strong>and</strong>/or Financial Occupations 623 1,136 2,127<br />

Total 14,424 26,233 50,155<br />

Source: <strong>Mining</strong> <strong>Industry</strong> Human Resources Council, Summer 2010.<br />

Note: Total hiring requirements by occupation will not add to the total hiring requirement projected for Canada. This is because of data limitations in defining occupations for<br />

the sector as discussed in Chapter 3.<br />

Addressing the Challenge<br />

The hiring forecasts presented in this report highlight the importance of the significant investment the industry continues<br />

to make to attract <strong>and</strong> retain top talent. Human resources challenges will be the major constraint to economic growth<br />

in Canada’s mining sector. Despite the increasing participation of new <strong>Canadian</strong>s, Aboriginal peoples, women <strong>and</strong> older<br />

workers in the mining workforce, dem<strong>and</strong> for workers will be harder <strong>and</strong> harder to meet — partially due to an aging<br />

workforce <strong>and</strong> partially due to fewer workers being available in the labour force. Economic performance, therefore, will<br />

increasingly have to rely on improved productivity. Clearly, in light of the forecast results presented here, a proactive <strong>and</strong><br />

strategic approach will assist industry employers in planning for future workforce needs.<br />

Broadly speaking, <strong>MiHR</strong> recommends a two-pronged approach. First, employers can continue their efforts to make the<br />

most of all available sources of talent. There are many strategies for this approach, including creating a culture of inclusion<br />

in the workforce, <strong>and</strong> increasing the representation of women, new <strong>Canadian</strong>s <strong>and</strong> Aboriginal peoples. Second, the industry<br />

can increase productivity through investments in workforce training <strong>and</strong> development, combined with emphasis on<br />

innovation <strong>and</strong> support for technology advances.<br />

2010 <strong>Employment</strong> <strong>and</strong> <strong>Hiring</strong> <strong>Forecasts</strong><br />

5


1 Introduction<br />

Canada’s mining industry is world-class, with the value of mineral production in Canada leading the globe. The industry<br />

accounts for 3.5 per cent of GDP, $9.7 billion in capital spending <strong>and</strong> over $95 billion in exports. Canada is the top producer<br />

of uranium <strong>and</strong> potash <strong>and</strong> among the top five producers of nickel, aluminum, zinc <strong>and</strong> molybdenum. 1 Dem<strong>and</strong>s from<br />

nations experiencing rapid growth <strong>and</strong> development, such as India <strong>and</strong> China, ensure a positive economic outlook for the<br />

industry. For example, the rapid pace of growth in China translates into high dem<strong>and</strong> for base metals, potash, uranium<br />

<strong>and</strong> precious metals, for decades to come. However, the <strong>Canadian</strong> mining industry faces many challenges, despite its<br />

world-class status.<br />

Human resources challenges pose a serious threat to Canada’s future mining competitiveness <strong>and</strong> arguably, these challenges<br />

are the greatest constraint to continuous growth in the industry. The <strong>Mining</strong> Association of Canada recently listed human<br />

resources among the top six key issues facing the industry, along with policy <strong>and</strong> regulatory issues, environmental impacts,<br />

declining reserves <strong>and</strong> corporate social responsibility. 2<br />

The challenges stem from an aging population <strong>and</strong> workforce, a poor image of mining among youth, <strong>and</strong> working<br />

conditions <strong>and</strong> cultures that have traditionally discouraged participation of diverse groups such as women <strong>and</strong> new<br />

<strong>Canadian</strong>s. Despite remarkable efforts to increase participation of previously under-represented groups in the industry’s<br />

workforce, it is becoming more difficult for employers to find the highly skilled <strong>and</strong> experienced workers they need.<br />

This is already a primary concern in some segments of the sector <strong>and</strong> the challenge will increase as more experienced<br />

workers retire.<br />

This report provides the foundation for developing new approaches to address human resources challenges <strong>and</strong><br />

supporting continued efforts to (i) make the best use of all available sources of labour <strong>and</strong> (ii) increase productivity.<br />

Current context <strong>and</strong> workforce demographics, including benchmarks on participation rates, diversity, turnover <strong>and</strong><br />

retirement dem<strong>and</strong>s appear in Chapter 2. Regional <strong>and</strong> national forecasts of hiring requirements for the industry as a<br />

whole <strong>and</strong> by occupational groups are presented in Chapter 3. The information contained in this report can be used by<br />

all industry stakeholders, including employers, educators, <strong>and</strong> governments.<br />

1 The <strong>Mining</strong> Association of Canada, “The <strong>Canadian</strong> <strong>Mining</strong> <strong>Industry</strong>: Overview, Issues <strong>and</strong> the Way Forward,” April 2010.<br />

2 ibid. (Indicates “same as the source above.”)<br />

2010 <strong>Employment</strong> <strong>and</strong> <strong>Hiring</strong> <strong>Forecasts</strong><br />

7


Background<br />

A main strategic objective of the <strong>Mining</strong> <strong>Industry</strong> Human Resources Council (<strong>MiHR</strong>) is to increase industry stakeholders’<br />

ability to underst<strong>and</strong>, anticipate <strong>and</strong> plan for labour supply <strong>and</strong> dem<strong>and</strong> requirements. <strong>MiHR</strong> does this by providing<br />

high-quality labour market information; regional <strong>and</strong> occupational hiring forecasts; <strong>and</strong> human resources management<br />

based research. As part of this commitment, the <strong>Mining</strong> <strong>Industry</strong> Workforce Information Network (MIWIN) — the source<br />

of the most extensive research <strong>and</strong> analysis available on Canada’s mining labour market — provides regular forecasts<br />

of hiring needs for the <strong>Canadian</strong> mining industry.<br />

One of MIWIN’s key activities is to produce model-based forecasts of changes in employment <strong>and</strong> hiring requirements.<br />

The purpose of the study reported here is to forecast changes in employment <strong>and</strong> hiring requirements over two, five <strong>and</strong><br />

10 years, with particular emphasis on national, regional <strong>and</strong> occupational dem<strong>and</strong>s. This report exp<strong>and</strong>s on previous<br />

research <strong>and</strong> forecasts (conducted in 2008 <strong>and</strong> 2009) that examined the dynamics of the mining labour markets in<br />

British Columbia, Saskatchewan <strong>and</strong> Ontario.<br />

The forecasts presented in this report analyze three different economic scenarios: contractionary, baseline <strong>and</strong><br />

expansionary. Each scenario generates a projection of changes in employment <strong>and</strong> hiring requirements from<br />

2010 to 2020. This report also presents results from <strong>MiHR</strong>’s 2010 National Employer Survey, which complements the<br />

model-based forecasts <strong>and</strong> provides key demographics from a representative sample of mining industry employers.<br />

To date, the supply side of the labour market <strong>and</strong> speculations on the gap between labour supply <strong>and</strong> dem<strong>and</strong>, are not<br />

explicitly considered in <strong>MiHR</strong> forecasts. However, <strong>MiHR</strong> has begun research to investigate labour supply in the mining<br />

industry. Such ongoing improvements are an integral part of the MIWIN program, <strong>and</strong> labour supply will be included in<br />

future forecast reports.<br />

Overview of the Report<br />

This report is organized into two main sections. It begins with an overview of Canada’s mining industry followed by<br />

national <strong>and</strong> regional forecasts of changes in employment <strong>and</strong> hiring requirements over a two-, five- <strong>and</strong> 10-year horizon.<br />

The forecasts also include estimates of hiring needs for key occupational groups.<br />

Chapter 2 begins with a definition <strong>and</strong> scope of the mining industry, which is used in the subsequent labour market<br />

analyses <strong>and</strong> forecasts. The definition is followed by discussion of labour market trends in terms of employment,<br />

turnover, productivity, educational attainment, the aging workforce, <strong>and</strong> diversity. Results from <strong>MiHR</strong>’s 2010 National<br />

Employer Survey, along with other industry research, illustrate the trends throughout the section. The report also<br />

discusses issues related to a tight labour market <strong>and</strong> making the best use of all possible sources of labour. This<br />

section sets the stage <strong>and</strong> describes the context for the forecasts that follow.<br />

Chapter 3 begins with a brief review of the key assumptions adopted to produce forecasts of total employment <strong>and</strong><br />

hiring requirements under contractionary, baseline <strong>and</strong> expansionary scenarios. The review is followed with forecasts<br />

of hiring requirements both on a national <strong>and</strong> regional basis, as well as occupational breakdowns. Appendix A provides<br />

details on forecast methodology.<br />

The report concludes with a high-level discussion of the findings (Chapter 4) <strong>and</strong> offers some suggestions for future<br />

directions in meeting the industry’s workforce needs. <strong>MiHR</strong>’s recommended approach to addressing current <strong>and</strong> existing<br />

human resources challenges in the industry is used as a framework for the discussion.<br />

8 <strong>Mining</strong> <strong>Industry</strong> Workforce Information Network


2 Overview of the <strong>Canadian</strong> <strong>Mining</strong> Workforce<br />

The <strong>Canadian</strong> mining industry faces several labour-market challenges. Despite impressive increases in the participation<br />

of under-represented groups, employers are still faced with an aging workforce <strong>and</strong> a looming labour shortage.<br />

To proactively address these challenges <strong>and</strong> meet future hiring requirements, the industry must first maximize <strong>and</strong><br />

make the best use of all available sources of labour, <strong>and</strong> second, increase its productivity through investments in training<br />

<strong>and</strong> skills development, coupled with improving the foundation for innovation <strong>and</strong> technological advances. A first step<br />

in developing these strategies is to review the current context <strong>and</strong> demographic profile of the industry’s workforce.<br />

This chapter begins with a brief definition <strong>and</strong> overview of economic conditions in Canada’s mining industry. The chapter<br />

then explores various labour market trends that impact on the quantity <strong>and</strong> quality of labour, including employment,<br />

turnover, productivity, educational attainment, compensation, labour relations, retirement projections <strong>and</strong> diversity.<br />

Findings from <strong>MiHR</strong>’s 2010 National Employer Survey are also presented throughout, along with other industry research<br />

that illustrates the issues discussed.<br />

Definition <strong>and</strong> Economic Overview of the <strong>Canadian</strong> <strong>Mining</strong> <strong>Industry</strong><br />

<strong>Industry</strong> Definition <strong>and</strong> Scope<br />

Statistics Canada, the main source of Canada’s labour market information, uses two different coding systems to classify<br />

data: the North American <strong>Industry</strong> Classification System (NAICS) <strong>and</strong> the National Occupational Classification for Statistics<br />

(NOC-S). Both systems provide a hierarchical structure that divides higher-level categories into more detailed categories<br />

in order to group similar establishments <strong>and</strong> individuals.<br />

NAICS 3 codes are used by statistical agencies throughout North America to describe economic <strong>and</strong> business activity<br />

at the industry level. This system features a production-oriented framework where assignment to a specific industry<br />

is based on primary activity, enabling groupings of establishments with similar activities.<br />

3 The definitions for the North American Industrial Classification System (2007) are taken from:<br />

http://stds.statcan.gc.ca/naics-scian/2007/cs-rc-eng.asp?criteria=212<br />

2010 <strong>Employment</strong> <strong>and</strong> <strong>Hiring</strong> <strong>Forecasts</strong><br />

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The NOC-S system 4 was developed by Statistics Canada <strong>and</strong> Human Resources <strong>and</strong> Skills Development Canada<br />

to provide st<strong>and</strong>ardized descriptions of the work that <strong>Canadian</strong>s perform in the labour market. NOC-S codes organize<br />

labour-force participants according to the nature of work they perform, thereby enabling similar occupations to be<br />

grouped. NOC-S codes are specific to Canada. Together, the NAICS <strong>and</strong> NOC-S systems provide a means for grouping<br />

statistics to obtain estimates of employment <strong>and</strong> workforce demographics using Statistics Canada data sources.<br />

There is no single NAICS code, however, that directly corresponds to all phases of the mining cycle (which includes<br />

exploration, development, extraction, processing <strong>and</strong> reclamation). Similarly, there is no single set of NOC-S categories<br />

that pertain to only mining. People employed in occupation groups that are prevalent in mining also work in a variety<br />

of other industries. A complete list of the NOC-S codes used to define the occupations in mining appears in Appendix B.<br />

To provide the best possible estimate of the industry, <strong>MiHR</strong> has defined the sector according to the following NAICS<br />

codes, thereby providing the best correspondence between the industry’s main primary <strong>and</strong> processing activities as<br />

defined by Natural Resources Canada. 5 The NAICS codes that define the mining industry include:<br />

• NAICS 212: <strong>Mining</strong> <strong>and</strong> Quarrying (except Oil <strong>and</strong> Gas). This subsector comprises establishments primarily engaged<br />

in mining, beneficiating or otherwise preparing metallic <strong>and</strong> non-metallic minerals, including coal.<br />

• NAICS 213: Support Activities for <strong>Mining</strong> <strong>and</strong> Oil <strong>and</strong> Gas Extraction. This subsector comprises establishments<br />

primarily engaged in providing support services, on a contract or fee basis, required for the mining <strong>and</strong> quarrying of<br />

minerals <strong>and</strong> for the extraction of oil <strong>and</strong> gas. Establishments engaged in the exploration for minerals, other than<br />

oil or gas, are included. 6<br />

• NAICS 3311: Iron <strong>and</strong> Steel Mills <strong>and</strong> Ferro-Alloy Manufacturing. This industry group comprises establishments<br />

primarily engaged in smelting iron ore <strong>and</strong> steel scrap to produce pig iron in molten or solid form.<br />

• NAICS 3313: Alumina <strong>and</strong> Aluminum Production <strong>and</strong> Processing. This industry group comprises establishments<br />

primarily engaged in extracting alumina.<br />

• NAICS 3314: Non-Ferrous Metal (except Aluminum) Production <strong>and</strong> Processing. This industry group comprises<br />

establishments primarily engaged in smelting, refining, rolling, drawing, extruding <strong>and</strong> alloying non-ferrous metal<br />

(except aluminum).<br />

Economic Overview<br />

The mining industry experienced strong economic growth for almost a decade leading up to the sharp decline in the fall<br />

of 2008. However, rebound from the recession is already underway in the sector, largely due to the impacts of non-metal<br />

commodities <strong>and</strong> dem<strong>and</strong> for resources from BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, <strong>and</strong> China) nations.<br />

4 The definitions for the NOC-S (2006) system can be found at:<br />

www.statcan.gc.ca/subjects-sujets/st<strong>and</strong>ard-norme/soc-cnp/2006/noc2006-cnp2006-menu-eng.htm<br />

5 Natural Resources Canada, <strong>Canadian</strong> Minerals Yearbook, 2008.<br />

6 Note that <strong>MiHR</strong>’s definition of the mining industry does not include oil <strong>and</strong> gas extraction or the activities related to oil s<strong>and</strong>s extraction. However,<br />

data included in NAICS 213 is not available for the mining industry in isolation <strong>and</strong> does include some support services activities for oil <strong>and</strong> gas <strong>and</strong><br />

the oil s<strong>and</strong>s.<br />

10 <strong>Mining</strong> <strong>Industry</strong> Workforce Information Network


The value of mineral production in Canada continues to lead the world with a total value of $45.3 billion in 2008<br />

(see Figure 1). Recent declines in metal prices were largely offset by strong non-metal prices, most notably potash.<br />

In addition, Canada now ranks third internationally in terms of diamond production, accounting for about 13 per cent<br />

of world production. 7 Furthermore, in 2008, a rise in the contract price of coal led to a significant increase in the<br />

value of coal production.<br />

Figure 1<br />

Value of <strong>Canadian</strong> Mineral Production, 1998–2008*<br />

30<br />

25<br />

20<br />

Metals<br />

Non-Metals<br />

Coal<br />

$ Billions<br />

15<br />

10<br />

5<br />

0<br />

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008*<br />

Total: 18.7 18.5 19.8 19.6 20.0 20.1 24.4 28.3 34.2 40.5 45.3<br />

Source: <strong>Mining</strong> Association of Canada, Facts <strong>and</strong> Figures, 2009.<br />

*Data reported for 2008 are preliminary estimates. Facts <strong>and</strong> Figures, 2010 was not available at the time of publication.<br />

Controlling for price effects, increases in real mining gross domestic product (GDP) have exp<strong>and</strong>ed at an historical<br />

average rate of 2.3 per cent. Over the past 25 years, the mining industry contribution to Canada’s GDP has remained<br />

relatively stable at an average of 2 per cent over the entire 1984–2008 period. Today, mining accounts for 3.5 per cent<br />

of Canada’s GDP.<br />

Canada’s top 10 minerals by value of production are shown in Table 4. Of these, Canada is the world leader in the<br />

production of potash <strong>and</strong> uranium, <strong>and</strong> ranks second in nickel production. Historically, the top three mineral-producing<br />

provinces in Canada have been Ontario, Quebec <strong>and</strong> British Columbia. More recently, however, Saskatchewan has taken<br />

over the top position, due to strong potash prices in 2008.<br />

<strong>Mining</strong> Labour Market Trends<br />

According to Statistics Canada’s recent population projections, within the next 10 years Canada will have more people<br />

at the age where they can leave the labour force than at the age where they can begin working. 8 In fact, exits of older<br />

workers from the labour force will start to accelerate in 2011, as the first waves of the Baby Boom generation begin<br />

reaching retirement age.<br />

7 <strong>Mining</strong> Association of Canada, Facts <strong>and</strong> Figures 2009, A Report on the State of the <strong>Mining</strong> <strong>Industry</strong>.<br />

8 Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey.<br />

2010 <strong>Employment</strong> <strong>and</strong> <strong>Hiring</strong> <strong>Forecasts</strong><br />

11


Table 4<br />

Canada’s Top 10 Minerals by Value of Production, 2008*<br />

UNIT<br />

QUANTITY<br />

(MILLIONS)<br />

$ VALUE<br />

(MILLIONS)<br />

Potash t 11 8,243<br />

Nickel kg 251 5,856<br />

Copper kg 581 4,438<br />

Coal t 68 4,292<br />

Gold g 95 2,824<br />

Iron Ore t 31 2,427<br />

Diamonds ct 15 2,404<br />

Sulphur t 8 2,389<br />

Cement t 14 1,792<br />

Uranium kg 9 1,488<br />

Source: <strong>Mining</strong> Association of Canada, Facts <strong>and</strong> Figures, 2009<br />

* Data reported for 2008 are preliminary estimates.<br />

The aging labour force presents considerable challenges for <strong>Canadian</strong> employers, <strong>and</strong> the mining industry is no exception.<br />

To ensure that the necessary workers are available in the short- <strong>and</strong> long-term, mining employers are striving to attract<br />

groups that have been traditionally under-represented in the mining workforce, <strong>and</strong> to make the most of all available<br />

talent in the general labour force. These groups include new <strong>Canadian</strong>s, Aboriginal peoples, youth <strong>and</strong> women.<br />

However, increasing the participation of under-represented groups will only partially manage the impacts of the aging<br />

workforce. Within a few years, the need to replace older workers will quickly surpass the availability of younger talent<br />

in the labour pool. Consequently, maintaining economic performance will also rely on improved productivity.<br />

This section provides an overview of mining employment, productivity, educational attainment, <strong>and</strong> key aspects of<br />

employment relations. Issues pertaining to the aging workforce <strong>and</strong> diversity are of primary importance to the long-term<br />

success of the sector <strong>and</strong> are each discussed in their own sections.<br />

<strong>Employment</strong><br />

<strong>Employment</strong> in mining is more volatile than in most other <strong>Canadian</strong> industries, making long-term workforce planning<br />

a particular challenge in the sector. <strong>Mining</strong> sector employment has been on a slight downward trend for the past<br />

few decades. <strong>Employment</strong> was just over 200,000 workers in both 2007 <strong>and</strong> 2008 — slightly lower than the peak<br />

of 210,000 workers in 1984.<br />

<strong>MiHR</strong>’s recent research has demonstrated a strong positive correlation between employment <strong>and</strong> movements in<br />

commodity prices, as measured against the Minerals Price Index (MPI). The relationship is shown in Figure 2 <strong>and</strong> is<br />

a fundamental assumption in <strong>MiHR</strong>’s employment forecasting model.<br />

Forecasted movements in commodity prices are one of the key explanatory variables in the development of the<br />

forecasting models for hiring requirements discussed in Chapter 3. Please see Appendix A for more details.<br />

12 <strong>Mining</strong> <strong>Industry</strong> Workforce Information Network


Figure 2<br />

<strong>Mining</strong> <strong>Employment</strong> <strong>and</strong> the Minerals Price Index (MPI)<br />

220,000<br />

210,000<br />

Linear employment trend<br />

during 1984 to 2002<br />

400<br />

350<br />

200,000<br />

190,000<br />

180,000<br />

170,000<br />

160,000<br />

<strong>Employment</strong> increase<br />

corresponds to MPI gains<br />

300<br />

250<br />

200<br />

150<br />

100<br />

50<br />

150,000<br />

1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008<br />

<strong>Employment</strong> Canada<br />

MPI<br />

0<br />

Sources: <strong>Mining</strong> <strong>Industry</strong> Human Resources Council; Statistics Canada; Bank of Canada.<br />

Labour Productivity<br />

Labour productivity is a complex concept that is influenced by many factors. On the whole, productivity tends to<br />

accelerate during periods of economic expansion <strong>and</strong> slow during a recession. In terms of employment, higher levels<br />

of productivity tend to be associated with contractions in employment needs. Declines in productivity tend to occur in a<br />

tight labour market. One explanation for this is that as talent becomes scarce, employers may begin to hire workers who<br />

have less experience <strong>and</strong> fewer skills, or are not quite ready to enter the workforce.<br />

Figure 3 shows that labour productivity in the <strong>Canadian</strong> mining industry (measured as real GDP per hour worked) steadily<br />

increased over the 1984 to 2005 period, at an average rate of 2.9 per cent 9 annually. Since 2006, however, productivity<br />

has declined by approximately four per cent per year. A study released in September 2009 by the Centre for the Study<br />

of Living St<strong>and</strong>ards (CSLS) suggested that this decline was not necessarily related to changes in worker skills or<br />

technology <strong>and</strong> innovation; 10 rather, it may have been a direct result of higher commodity prices, which, in turn, made<br />

exploitation of marginal resource deposits profitable.<br />

Diamond mining expansion in the Territories has had a positive impact on overall productivity in the sector, as shown<br />

in Figure 4. Since the opening of the Ekati mine in the fall of 1998, labour productivity has increased at a compounded<br />

annual growth rate of 22 per cent. During this period, the Territories’ share of mining GDP has also increased rapidly:<br />

from 0.5 per cent in 1998 to over four per cent in 2008.<br />

9 This is considered to be a reasonable estimate of trends in labour productivity for the sector. It is based on more than 20 years of data, covering several<br />

business cycles.<br />

10 Centre for the Study of Livings St<strong>and</strong>ards, A Detailed Analysis of the Productivity Performance of <strong>Mining</strong> in Canada, September 2009.<br />

2010 <strong>Employment</strong> <strong>and</strong> <strong>Hiring</strong> <strong>Forecasts</strong><br />

13


Figure 3<br />

Labour Productivity <strong>and</strong> <strong>Employment</strong><br />

220<br />

75.0<br />

<strong>Employment</strong> (000s)<br />

210<br />

200<br />

190<br />

180<br />

170<br />

160<br />

Productivity reductions<br />

correspond with significant<br />

employment gains<br />

70.0<br />

65.0<br />

60.0<br />

55.0<br />

50.0<br />

45.0<br />

40.0<br />

35.0<br />

GDP per Hour Worked (Thous<strong>and</strong>s of 2002 $)<br />

150<br />

1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008<br />

<strong>Employment</strong><br />

Productivity<br />

30.0<br />

Source: <strong>Mining</strong> <strong>Industry</strong> Human Resources Council; Statistics Canada.<br />

Regional differences in productivity such as this are captured in the employment forecasts presented in Chapter 4.<br />

The forecasts of changes in employment presented in this report are based on the combined forces of commodity prices<br />

<strong>and</strong> forecasted trends in labour productivity. This issue is discussed in more detail in Appendix A.<br />

Figure 4<br />

Labour Productivity in Canada’s North<br />

250<br />

GDP per Hour Worked<br />

(Thous<strong>and</strong>s of 2002 $)<br />

200<br />

150<br />

100<br />

50<br />

Opening of Ekati Mine<br />

Opening of Diavik Mine<br />

0<br />

1984 1988<br />

1992 1996 2000 2004 2008<br />

Territories<br />

Rest of Canada<br />

Source: <strong>Mining</strong> <strong>Industry</strong> Human Resources Council; Statistics Canada.<br />

14 <strong>Mining</strong> <strong>Industry</strong> Workforce Information Network


Educational Attainment<br />

The dem<strong>and</strong> for more <strong>and</strong> better skills in the mining industry has increased, in part, in response to technological advances.<br />

However, when compared with the <strong>Canadian</strong> labour force in general, the 2006 Census data indicates that the mining<br />

workforce has mixed levels of educational attainment. As shown in Figure 5, a lower proportion of mining workers have a<br />

university level education (11 per cent compared with 22 per cent for the <strong>Canadian</strong> labour force). That said, in the mining<br />

occupations where a university education is likely required (e.g., engineering, geosciences <strong>and</strong> management positions),<br />

a higher proportion of the workforce has university degrees than in other industries.<br />

A source of skilled labour in the industry is apprenticeship programs. In most provinces, registered apprenticeship<br />

combines practical on-the-job training with in-school technical training. Depending on the trade or occupation, programs<br />

vary in duration from two to five years.<br />

At 21 per cent, the proportion of workers with an apprenticeship or trades certificate is significantly higher in the<br />

mining industry than it is for the <strong>Canadian</strong> labour force as a whole (at 12 per cent). This suggests that apprenticeship<br />

<strong>and</strong> trades‐training are key elements of workforce development in the sector, but there may be barriers to inclusion of<br />

Figure 5<br />

Proportion of <strong>Mining</strong> Workforce by Highest Level of Educational Attainment<br />

30%<br />

25%<br />

<strong>Mining</strong> <strong>Industry</strong><br />

<strong>Canadian</strong> Labour Force<br />

20%<br />

15%<br />

10%<br />

5%<br />

0%<br />

No certificate,<br />

diploma or degree<br />

High school graduation<br />

certificate or equivalent<br />

Apprenticeship or trades<br />

certificate or diploma<br />

College, CEGEP,<br />

or other non-university<br />

certificate or diploma<br />

University certificate<br />

or diploma below<br />

the bachelor level<br />

University certificate,<br />

diploma or degree<br />

Source: <strong>Mining</strong> <strong>Industry</strong> Human Resources Council; Statistics Canada, 2006 Census.<br />

2010 <strong>Employment</strong> <strong>and</strong> <strong>Hiring</strong> <strong>Forecasts</strong><br />

15


under-represented groups. As noted earlier, specific training programs that address barriers to the entry of underrepresented<br />

population groups such as new <strong>Canadian</strong>s, Aboriginal peoples <strong>and</strong> women are a priority for industry<br />

employers. In addition, investments in foreign credential recognition programs may help to remove barriers for<br />

recent immigrants.<br />

<strong>Employment</strong> Relations<br />

The relationship between the workforce <strong>and</strong> their employers is an important element in attracting <strong>and</strong> retaining talent.<br />

This section presents overviews of four main factors affecting employment relationships in mining, including turnover,<br />

wages <strong>and</strong> hours, unionization, <strong>and</strong> use of contractors.<br />

Turnover<br />

Tight labour market conditions <strong>and</strong> widespread labour shortages have historically been associated with higher employee<br />

turnover rates. As talent becomes scarce, competing employers or industries make more attractive offers <strong>and</strong> the best<br />

<strong>and</strong> brightest tend to become more mobile. Turnover in an organization does not translate directly to industry turnover,<br />

because workers leaving a particular employer do not necessarily leave the sector. Competition for talent between industry<br />

sectors in a tight labour market can create pressures on the sector to retain talent <strong>and</strong> lead to a base-level industry turnover<br />

rate. <strong>MiHR</strong>’s employment forecast model assumes a base-level industry turnover rate not related to retirement, of about<br />

two per cent per year, which is often lower than average employer- or region-specific turnover rates.<br />

According to <strong>MiHR</strong>’s 2010 National Employer Survey, the average overall turnover rate for employers is approximately<br />

5.6 per cent. Trades <strong>and</strong> Undesignated Occupations had higher overall turnover rates than other occupations, with<br />

an average of 8.3 per cent, <strong>and</strong> in some cases, as high as 25 per cent.<br />

The voluntary <strong>and</strong> overall turnover rates reported by survey respondents are indicative of a tightening labour market <strong>and</strong><br />

do not include lay-offs <strong>and</strong> call-backs resulting from the recent economic recession. These rates provide an indication<br />

of the churn felt by employers, over <strong>and</strong> above the base-level industry turnover rates used in the forecasting model.<br />

The greatest level of churn is felt in Trades <strong>and</strong> Undesignated Occupations, as well as in Support Workers occupations.<br />

Voluntary turnover 11 among these groups was identified as a primary concern for employers. More than 75 per cent<br />

of respondents reported that voluntary turnover of workers in Trades <strong>and</strong> Undesignated Occupations has impeded<br />

productivity to a great extent over the past two years. In the same period, all survey respondents reported that voluntary<br />

turnover among support workers has impeded productivity to a significant degree. In addition, support services <strong>and</strong><br />

exploration employers reported higher voluntary turnover rates in Professional <strong>and</strong> Management occupations than<br />

other mining employers.<br />

11 Note that voluntary turnover rate is a measure of employee-initiated departures. This is not to be confused with the “non-retirement” departure rates used<br />

in <strong>MiHR</strong>’s employment forecasting model. Non-retirement departures include all turnover not related to retirement <strong>and</strong> can include both voluntary <strong>and</strong><br />

involuntary turnover.<br />

16 <strong>Mining</strong> <strong>Industry</strong> Workforce Information Network


Compensation, Wages <strong>and</strong> Hours Worked<br />

Compensation, wages <strong>and</strong> hours worked are indicators of labour force strength <strong>and</strong> labour-supply preferences.<br />

Sectors offering higher wages for fewer hours worked tend to be attractive employment options.<br />

Significant variations exist between regions with respect to total compensation. The data displayed in Figure 6 shows<br />

total compensation (wages <strong>and</strong> salaries, overtime, bonuses, <strong>and</strong> benefits) in mining as an hourly rate. Workers in<br />

the northern areas of Canada are compensated above the national average, perhaps for extreme conditions, <strong>and</strong><br />

compensation in Atlantic Canada is approximately 80 per cent of the national average.<br />

Further, Statistics Canada’s Labour Force Survey provides monthly <strong>and</strong> annual statistics on wages <strong>and</strong> hours worked.<br />

Over the past 25 years in Canada, nominal wage increases have averaged 3.5 per cent annually, while real wages<br />

increased an average of 0.9 per cent. In contrast, over this period, workers in the mining industry have seen their<br />

real wages rise by approximately 20 per cent.<br />

CostMine, in their annual report, <strong>Canadian</strong> Mine Salary Wages <strong>and</strong> Benefits, provide benchmark average hourly wages<br />

for selected job titles by region, commodity, <strong>and</strong> unionization. The benchmarks by commodity are displayed in Figure 7.<br />

Overall, Diamond <strong>and</strong> Industrial Mineral mining companies pay higher wages than Metal mining companies. This may<br />

be, in part, due to regional differences in compensation as discussed above. Fossil Fuel companies refer to those<br />

operating in the oil s<strong>and</strong>s. In some cases these companies offer higher average wages than other mining companies<br />

(e.g., for surface labourers), but in other cases they do not (e.g., for dragline/shovel operators).<br />

At the same time that wages are rising, weekly hours worked per employee have also increased. Figure 8, which reports<br />

on weekly hours worked in 10-year increments, shows that these hours have risen, on average, by eight per cent over<br />

the past 20 years — with the largest increases in the Territories at 11.5 per cent. This is perhaps due to the expansion<br />

of diamond mining <strong>and</strong> the industry’s goal of minimizing labour transportation costs relative to hours worked.<br />

Figure 6<br />

Hourly Total Compensation Rates by Region<br />

$60.00<br />

$50.00<br />

$40.00<br />

<strong>Canadian</strong> Average for <strong>Mining</strong><br />

$40.42 per hour<br />

$30.00<br />

$20.00<br />

$10.00<br />

$0.00<br />

Atlantic<br />

Quebec<br />

Ontario<br />

Prairies<br />

British Columbia<br />

Territories<br />

Source: <strong>Mining</strong> <strong>Industry</strong> Human Resources Council; Statistics Canada, Special Aggregations from Productivity Measures, Income <strong>and</strong> Expenditure Accounts Division, February 2009.<br />

2010 <strong>Employment</strong> <strong>and</strong> <strong>Hiring</strong> <strong>Forecasts</strong><br />

17


Figure 7<br />

Average Benchmark Hourly Wages for Select Job Titles in <strong>Mining</strong>, by Commodity Produced<br />

$40<br />

Fossil Fuels Diamond/Industrial Mineral Metal<br />

$35<br />

$30<br />

$25<br />

$20<br />

Surface Labourer<br />

Underground<br />

Labourer<br />

Mill Equipment<br />

Operator<br />

Underground<br />

Equipment Operator<br />

Truck Driver<br />

Underground Driller<br />

Surface Driller<br />

Heavy Equipment<br />

Operator-Surface<br />

Dragline/Shovel<br />

Operator<br />

Mechanic<br />

Electrician<br />

Source: <strong>Mining</strong> <strong>Industry</strong> Human Resources Council; CostMine: <strong>Canadian</strong> Mine Salaries, Wages & Benefits, 2009 Survey Results.<br />

Figure 8<br />

Weekly Hours Worked in <strong>Mining</strong>, Canada <strong>and</strong> Regions, 1988–2008<br />

55.0<br />

50.0<br />

1988 1998 2008<br />

45.0<br />

40.0<br />

35.0<br />

30.0<br />

Canada Atlantic Quebec Ontario Prairies British<br />

Columbia<br />

Territories<br />

Source: <strong>Mining</strong> <strong>Industry</strong> Human Resources Council; Statistics Canada, Special Aggregations from Productivity Measures, Income <strong>and</strong> Expenditure Accounts Division, February 2009.<br />

18 <strong>Mining</strong> <strong>Industry</strong> Workforce Information Network


Unionization<br />

Unionization rates among labour force participants are a factor in wage <strong>and</strong> pension coverage <strong>and</strong> partly responsible<br />

for wage gaps in the labour force. 12 Changes in unionization rates have contributed to closing the wage gap for women<br />

(unionization rates between men <strong>and</strong> women have converged over the past few decades) <strong>and</strong> a widening of the gap<br />

for young men (unionization rates for younger workers have diverged from older workers over the decades).<br />

Unionization rates across Canada declined between 1984 <strong>and</strong> 2004, falling from 38 per cent to 31 per cent. Since that<br />

period, unionization rates in the labour force have remained steady at 31 per cent. 13 Decreasing rates of unionization<br />

have affected some groups in the labour force more than others. For example, the decline was twice as large among<br />

men younger than 45 years of age (with a drop of 15 per cent).<br />

Figure 9 shows that, in mining <strong>and</strong> related resource sectors, unionization rates have dropped over the past 25 years<br />

from 48 per cent in 1984 to 24 per cent in 2009, 14 with the largest declines occurring prior to 1998. These reductions<br />

may be partly due to the emergence of alternative opportunities for employee participation in decision making (e.g., joint<br />

labour-management initiatives) or changes in employment composition in the sector. 15<br />

Figure 9<br />

Unionization Rates: Forestry, Fishing, <strong>Mining</strong>, <strong>and</strong> Oil <strong>and</strong> Gas, 1997 to 2008<br />

34%<br />

32%<br />

30%<br />

28%<br />

26%<br />

24%<br />

22%<br />

20%<br />

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008<br />

Source: <strong>Mining</strong> <strong>Industry</strong> Human Resources Council; Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey.<br />

12 Statistics Canada, Perspectives on Labour <strong>and</strong> Income, 2005, Volume 6, Number 4.<br />

13 Statistics Canada, 2009 Labour Force Historical Review.<br />

14 ibid.<br />

15 Statistics Canada, Perspectives on Labour <strong>and</strong> Income, 2005, Volume 6, Number 4.<br />

2010 <strong>Employment</strong> <strong>and</strong> <strong>Hiring</strong> <strong>Forecasts</strong><br />

19


Results from <strong>MiHR</strong>’s 2010 National Employer Survey showed that one third of respondents do not have any unionized<br />

employees. However, at most sites where organized labour is present, over half of the workers are union members.<br />

Of the employers with unionized employees, half reported that 51–75 per cent of their workforce is unionized, <strong>and</strong> over<br />

a quarter reported that more than 75 per cent of their workforce is unionized.<br />

Use of Contractors<br />

As unionization rates fall in the mining industry, the use of contractors is on the rise. <strong>MiHR</strong>’s employer survey showed<br />

that, on average, 13 per cent of respondents’ workforces are comprised of independent contractors. However, respondents<br />

also reported contracting out some activities more than others. For example, the majority of respondents contract out<br />

drilling <strong>and</strong> blasting, boring, <strong>and</strong> tunnelling activities. Education <strong>and</strong> training activities were also commonly contracted<br />

out, as were transportation, material-moving, <strong>and</strong> heavy equipment operators <strong>and</strong> mechanic activities.<br />

An Aging Workforce<br />

The two main factors behind Canada’s aging population are the nation’s low fertility rate <strong>and</strong> increasing life expectancy.<br />

In general, aging contributes to slower labour-force growth because participation rates for older age groups in the<br />

population are significantly lower than for younger groups. What is more, the <strong>Canadian</strong> labour force is aging in<br />

conjunction with the population demographics; there will be more older workers leaving the labour force over the next<br />

10 years than younger workers available to replace them.<br />

According to a recent survey from the Conference Board of Canada, <strong>Canadian</strong> employers from a broad cross-section of<br />

regions <strong>and</strong> industry categories placed the aging workforce among their top priorities over the next five years. 16 The loss<br />

of experienced workers <strong>and</strong> corporate knowledge was a primary concern, as were gaps in management <strong>and</strong> leadership.<br />

Inexperienced, younger individuals without the depth of knowledge that comes from years of experience may get moved<br />

up the supervisory <strong>and</strong> management ladder before they are ready, which could be detrimental to the entire organization.<br />

Such acceleration also poses health <strong>and</strong> safety risks that are of concern to employers. 17<br />

The mining industry clearly recognizes that mature workers play an essential role in transferring knowledge <strong>and</strong> skills<br />

to younger industry workers. Employers’ efforts to increase mature workers’ participation rates include: altering pension<br />

<strong>and</strong> retirement benefits to reward extra time on the job; enhancing working conditions (including hours <strong>and</strong> vacation<br />

allotments); <strong>and</strong> adding medical <strong>and</strong> other benefits to address the needs of the older workforce.<br />

Figure 10 shows that the largest age group in the mining industry is 45–54 years old, representing almost 30 per cent of<br />

the workforce. This is significantly higher than the 25 per cent proportion for this age group across all industries in Canada.<br />

Respondents to <strong>MiHR</strong>’s 2010 National Employer Survey indicated that, on average, more than half of their workers<br />

are aged 45 or older, with the highest average proportion aged 45 to 54 years. In most cases, around 25 per cent of<br />

the workers are less than 35 years of age, with less than five per cent aged 15–24. The youngest reported average<br />

ages were for technical occupations (39 years), <strong>and</strong> professional <strong>and</strong> physical scientists (41.6 years). Supervisors <strong>and</strong><br />

foremen had the oldest average ages at 48 years.<br />

16 Harnessing the Power: Recruiting, Engaging, <strong>and</strong> Retaining Mature Workers, The Conference Board of Canada, October 2008.<br />

17 Many organizations have succession management programs in place to stream high-potential, younger workers for these roles. For more information, see<br />

the <strong>MiHR</strong> <strong>Mining</strong> for Diversity report <strong>and</strong> toolkit.<br />

20 <strong>Mining</strong> <strong>Industry</strong> Workforce Information Network


Figure 10<br />

Age Group Distribution in <strong>Canadian</strong> <strong>Mining</strong> <strong>Industry</strong> in 2006<br />

35%<br />

30%<br />

<strong>Mining</strong> <strong>Industry</strong><br />

<strong>Canadian</strong> Labour Force<br />

25%<br />

20%<br />

15%<br />

10%<br />

5%<br />

0%<br />

15 to 24 years<br />

25 to 34 years<br />

35 to 44 years<br />

45 to 54 years<br />

55 to 64 years<br />

Source: <strong>Mining</strong> <strong>Industry</strong> Human Resources Council; Statistics Canada, 2006 Census.<br />

Retirement<br />

A number of factors are taken into account when a person decides to retire. Many workers consider such issues as<br />

savings; debt <strong>and</strong> other financial circumstances; health status; sense of attachment to work; family responsibilities;<br />

labour-market pressures; <strong>and</strong> retirement policies (government, labour, <strong>and</strong> organizational). Consequently, it is difficult<br />

to predict an individual’s expected retirement date.<br />

A reasonably conservative approach when estimating retirement rates is to consider historical retirement ages <strong>and</strong><br />

to create a profile of expected retirement based on age. The average retirement age in the mining industry over the<br />

past 20 years has been 59.5 years. This is lower than the current national average of 62 years. Depending on the age<br />

of entry into the mining workforce <strong>and</strong> career paths taken, some industry workers can be eligible to retire as young<br />

as 45 to 50 years old.<br />

Pending retirements <strong>and</strong> succession planning are priorities for industry employers. Respondents to <strong>MiHR</strong>’s<br />

2010 National Employer Survey indicated that, on average, over a third of their workforce will be eligible to retire<br />

in the next five years, with the largest proportion eligible in three to five years (12.5 per cent, as shown in Figure 11).<br />

Retirement rates will therefore have a major impact on hiring requirements in the near future.<br />

Burgeoning retirement rates <strong>and</strong> the aging workforce suggest that mining employers need to find ways of encouraging<br />

retirement-age workers to continue to support skills development in the future. Because depth of experience <strong>and</strong> skills<br />

are critical for the future performance of the mining industry, training <strong>and</strong> mentoring younger or newer employees is of<br />

critical importance. As noted above, most respondents to <strong>MiHR</strong>’s survey indicated that training <strong>and</strong> development activities<br />

are commonly outsourced. Encouraging retired workers to take on this role could be an excellent way for employers to<br />

ensure extended knowledge transfer <strong>and</strong> mentoring of younger workers after the mature workers retire. It also creates<br />

a niche of employment opportunities for retired or semi-retired workers.<br />

2010 <strong>Employment</strong> <strong>and</strong> <strong>Hiring</strong> <strong>Forecasts</strong><br />

21


Figure 11<br />

Proportion of <strong>Mining</strong> Workforce Eligible to Retire<br />

14%<br />

12%<br />

10%<br />

8%<br />

6%<br />

4%<br />

2%<br />

0%<br />

Currently eligible<br />

Eligible in the<br />

next 12 months<br />

Eligible in the<br />

next 1 to 2 years<br />

Eligible in the<br />

next 3 to 5 years<br />

Source: <strong>Mining</strong> <strong>Industry</strong> Human Resources Council, 2010 National Employer Survey.<br />

Workforce Participation Rates <strong>and</strong> Diversity<br />

As the current mining workforce approaches retirement <strong>and</strong> the industry’s traditional labour pool shrinks, it is critical<br />

that industry employers seek out <strong>and</strong> retain diverse sources of labour. Information on current workforce profile <strong>and</strong><br />

diversity strategies provide the foundation for building these initiatives.<br />

According to <strong>MiHR</strong>’s employer survey, diversity <strong>and</strong> inclusion are priorities. Nearly half of responding organizations have<br />

a formal policy or statement on diversity or inclusion. Generally speaking, these policies express an on-going commitment<br />

to employment equity; representation based on the geographic regions in which the company operates; <strong>and</strong> fair<br />

opportunities for all, based on skills <strong>and</strong> ability.<br />

The top five business reasons for investments in developing policies <strong>and</strong> increasing representation of diversity<br />

groups included:<br />

• improved community relationships<br />

• improved access to global talent<br />

• legal requirements (e.g., Impact <strong>and</strong> Benefit Agreements)<br />

• creating connections with stakeholders<br />

• corporate social responsibility<br />

Women in <strong>Mining</strong><br />

Compared to the <strong>Canadian</strong> labour force as a whole, women continue to be under-represented in the mining industry.<br />

Although their participation has increased steadily (from just over 10 per cent in 1996 to 14 per cent in the 2006 Census),<br />

22 <strong>Mining</strong> <strong>Industry</strong> Workforce Information Network


it is well below the labour force’s average participation rate of 47 per cent. Figure 12 shows that women’s participation<br />

in mining also remains lower than in other natural resources sectors where non-traditional roles are prevalent.<br />

Furthermore, in mining, women tend to be employed in administrative <strong>and</strong> clerical roles, as shown in Figure 13.<br />

Figure 12<br />

Proportion of Women in Natural Resource Industries<br />

Proportion of Women in the Workforce<br />

22%<br />

20%<br />

18%<br />

16%<br />

14%<br />

12%<br />

10%<br />

1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006<br />

Census Year<br />

<strong>Mining</strong> <strong>and</strong> exploration<br />

Forestry <strong>and</strong> logging<br />

Fishing, hunting <strong>and</strong> trapping<br />

Oil <strong>and</strong> gas extraction<br />

Source: WIM Canada, Ramp-Up: A Study on the Status of Women in Canada’s <strong>Mining</strong> <strong>and</strong> Exploration Sector, 2010.<br />

Figure 13<br />

Proportion of Women in Select <strong>Mining</strong> Occupations<br />

100%<br />

80%<br />

Women<br />

Men<br />

60%<br />

40%<br />

20%<br />

0%<br />

15 to 24 years<br />

Management —<br />

except administration<br />

<strong>and</strong> corporate services<br />

25 to 34 years<br />

Management —<br />

administration<br />

<strong>and</strong> corporate services<br />

35 to 44 years<br />

Professional —<br />

technical <strong>and</strong> scientific<br />

Professional —<br />

administration <strong>and</strong><br />

corporate services<br />

45 to 54 years<br />

Technical <strong>and</strong><br />

skilled trades<br />

55 to 64 years<br />

Labour, service<br />

<strong>and</strong> production<br />

Clerical <strong>and</strong> support<br />

Source: WIM Canada, Ramp-Up: A Study on the Status of Women in Canada’s <strong>Mining</strong> <strong>and</strong> Exploration Sector, 2010.<br />

2010 <strong>Employment</strong> <strong>and</strong> <strong>Hiring</strong> <strong>Forecasts</strong><br />

23


In 2010, Women in <strong>Mining</strong> (WIM) Canada, in partnership with <strong>MiHR</strong>, released findings from a detailed report on women’s<br />

participation: Ramp-Up: A Study on the Status of Women in Canada’s <strong>Mining</strong> <strong>and</strong> Exploration Sector. This report provides<br />

bench-marking statistics to measure improvements on the status of women in mining, along with information for<br />

employers on the barriers to engagement of female workers, <strong>and</strong> suggestions on how to increase their participation.<br />

The report reveals discrepancies between what employers perceive as barriers for women in the workforce <strong>and</strong> those<br />

described by female workers, <strong>and</strong> provides a foundation for developing targeted initiatives. 18<br />

Aboriginal Participation in <strong>Mining</strong><br />

Many industry employers consider hiring a local workforce <strong>and</strong> growing local companies to be top priorities for<br />

developing the future workforce. Overall, the Aboriginal population is relatively young, growing rapidly <strong>and</strong> subject to<br />

high rates of unemployment. Furthermore, hundreds of Aboriginal communities are in close proximity to active mining<br />

<strong>and</strong> exploration sites, as shown in Figure 14.<br />

Figure 14<br />

Aboriginal Communities <strong>and</strong> Active <strong>Mining</strong> <strong>and</strong> Exploration Sites<br />

Legend<br />

Coal mines<br />

Industrial mineral mines<br />

Metal mines <strong>and</strong> mills<br />

100 active exploration sites<br />

Aboriginal communities<br />

Source: Natural Resources Canada, Interactive Maps, Aboriginal Communities <strong>and</strong> Minerals <strong>and</strong> Metals Activity Map*<br />

*This interactive map can be found at http://mmsd.mms.nrcan.gc.ca/mapguide2008/<strong>Mining</strong>Map/AboriginalMapFrame_e.aspx<br />

18 For more information on Ramp-Up visit www.mihr.ca<br />

24 <strong>Mining</strong> <strong>Industry</strong> Workforce Information Network


Statistics Canada’s 2006 Census revealed that the mining industry is the most significant employer of Aboriginal peoples<br />

in Canada. Almost seven per cent of the mining workforce self-identify as being of Aboriginal descent (more than double<br />

the participation rate in the <strong>Canadian</strong> labour force). Furthermore, this marks a 40 per cent increase over figures reported<br />

in the 2001 Census, as shown in Table 5.<br />

Table 5<br />

Proportion of <strong>Mining</strong> Workforce of Aboriginal Descent<br />

% of Labour Force<br />

2001 CENSUS 2006 CENSUS<br />

Total <strong>Mining</strong> Labour Force 4.8 6.75<br />

Total <strong>Canadian</strong> Labour Force 2.5 3.07<br />

Source: Statistics Canada, 2001 <strong>and</strong> 2006 Census.<br />

Respondents to <strong>MiHR</strong>’s 2010 National Employer Survey indicated that, on average, 12 per cent of their workforces<br />

self-identify as being of Aboriginal descent. Over half of respondents specifically target Aboriginal peoples in their<br />

attraction, recruitment, retention <strong>and</strong> advancement activities. Furthermore, 40 per cent of respondents said that<br />

they had agreements in place that commit the organization to specific levels of employment or targeted business<br />

development <strong>and</strong> spending on Aboriginal communities.<br />

In addition, 38 per cent of respondents indicated that their organization is involved in partnerships or joint ventures with<br />

Aboriginal businesses that result from mine-development activities <strong>and</strong> operations. Other industry research indicates<br />

that more than 120 agreements are currently in place between Aboriginal communities <strong>and</strong> mining companies. 19<br />

These findings indicate that the proportion of the mining workforce who are of Aboriginal descent may have increased<br />

since the 2006 Census. Increasing participation of Aboriginal people in the sector <strong>and</strong> improving relationships with<br />

Aboriginal communities will remain a top priority for mining employers as the labour market tightens.<br />

New <strong>Canadian</strong>s in <strong>Mining</strong><br />

New <strong>Canadian</strong>s are a vital source of talent for meeting future workforce needs. Population projections indicate that new<br />

<strong>Canadian</strong>s will account for an increasing share of labour force growth in Canada over the next five to 10 years. 20 In fact,<br />

net change in the labour force would be negative by 2030 without immigration. There are not enough young people<br />

entering the labour force in Canada to offset the number of retirements <strong>and</strong> other departures from the labour force. 21<br />

<strong>Mining</strong> is a global industry with a mobile workforce. However, the industry is not attracting its share of new <strong>Canadian</strong>s.<br />

According to the Statistics Canada 2006 Census, immigrants account for only 8.7 per cent of the mining workforce.<br />

This is significantly lower than the overall proportion of 21 per cent in the <strong>Canadian</strong> labour force.<br />

19 For more information, go to www.mining.ubc.ca/files/<strong>Mining</strong>%20in%20Aboriginal%20Communities.pdf<br />

20 Human Resources <strong>and</strong> Skills Development Canada, Looking Ahead: A 10-Year Outlook for the <strong>Canadian</strong> Labour Market, Released January 2007.<br />

21 See for example, The Conference Board of Canada, <strong>Canadian</strong> Outlook: Long-Term Economic Forecast.<br />

2010 <strong>Employment</strong> <strong>and</strong> <strong>Hiring</strong> <strong>Forecasts</strong><br />

25


Immigrants to Canada — particularly those who are recently established — have typically had lower employment rates<br />

than the rest of the population. 22 What is more alarming is that unemployed recent immigrants also tend to have higher<br />

levels of education 23 than the rest of the unemployed population in the labour force. Many factors contribute to<br />

higher unemployment rates for immigrants, including lack of <strong>Canadian</strong> work experience; lack of recognition of foreign<br />

credentials or work experience; a preference to settle mainly in large urban centres; <strong>and</strong> language <strong>and</strong> cultural barriers.<br />

Nevertheless, mining employers are making great strides in attracting new <strong>Canadian</strong>s. Several approaches are<br />

producing positive results. Many employers are working to change perceptions among new <strong>Canadian</strong>s that mining is<br />

dirty, dangerous, <strong>and</strong> relatively “low tech.” Consequently, the industry is making efforts to improve new <strong>Canadian</strong>s’<br />

awareness about the work opportunities in the rural or remote areas where mining activities are typically located.<br />

Finally, employers <strong>and</strong> professional associations are working together to establish <strong>and</strong> improve on foreign-credential<br />

recognition programs <strong>and</strong> provide easy access to language training. This collaborative <strong>and</strong> integrated approach will<br />

ensure smooth transition <strong>and</strong> integration of new <strong>Canadian</strong>s into the mining labour market.<br />

Summary<br />

This chapter provided an economic overview of the <strong>Canadian</strong> mining industry <strong>and</strong> highlighted various labour market<br />

trends that impact the availability <strong>and</strong> quality of labour, including employment, turnover, productivity, educational<br />

attainment, compensation, labour relations, retirement projections <strong>and</strong> diversity.<br />

<strong>Employment</strong> in the sector is highly volatile, is directly related to commodity prices <strong>and</strong> is inversely related to gains in<br />

productivity. Paired with a rapidly aging workforce <strong>and</strong> lack of growth in the <strong>Canadian</strong> labour force, the sector will face<br />

significant challenges in the near future in finding the right talent to fill vacant positions.<br />

A two-faceted approach to meeting future workforce needs is recommended. First, industry employers are encouraged<br />

to make the best use of all available talent <strong>and</strong> continue with efforts to make mining an attractive option for talent<br />

groups such as women, Aboriginal peoples, new <strong>Canadian</strong>s <strong>and</strong> youth. Second, economic growth will come through<br />

improvements to productivity. To this end, employers should continue to make investments in workforce training <strong>and</strong><br />

development, <strong>and</strong> continue to support innovation <strong>and</strong> technological advances in the sector.<br />

22 Statistics Canada, 2009 Labour Force Survey Review.<br />

23 Statistics Canada, Study: Canada’s Immigrant Labour Market, Released in The Daily, September 2007.<br />

26 <strong>Mining</strong> <strong>Industry</strong> Workforce Information Network


3 Forecasted <strong>Hiring</strong> Requirements in<br />

the <strong>Canadian</strong> <strong>Mining</strong> <strong>Industry</strong><br />

As Chapter 2 illustrates, employment in the mining sector is significantly more volatile than in most other industries in<br />

Canada. Recent <strong>MiHR</strong> research demonstrated a strong correlation between employment patterns <strong>and</strong> the Minerals Price<br />

Index. When commodity prices are high, the industry responds with aggressive production <strong>and</strong> ambitious expansion<br />

plans. Employers exp<strong>and</strong> their workforces <strong>and</strong> the labour market tightens. When commodity prices are low, reduced<br />

production leads to temporary <strong>and</strong> permanent layoffs <strong>and</strong> mine closures, <strong>and</strong> expansion activities are delayed or<br />

cancelled. With workforce reductions, the labour market quickly softens.<br />

Despite this volatility, significant labour shortages threaten the industry’s viability <strong>and</strong> competitiveness in the near<br />

future. Previous labour market forecasts produced by <strong>MiHR</strong> demonstrate that even in a contraction scenario,<br />

the industry will face significant labour shortages. Tens of thous<strong>and</strong>s of workers will be needed simply to replace<br />

workforce attrition due to separation <strong>and</strong> retirements.<br />

Development of the Model<br />

The forecasts presented here are the result of extensive research <strong>and</strong> economic model development over the past<br />

five years. The first phase of development involved the creation of an initial forecast model, which was deployed in pilot<br />

projects in Saskatchewan, British Columbia <strong>and</strong> Ontario. The forecasts <strong>and</strong> corresponding reports outlined, by occupation,<br />

future hiring requirements in each provincial market. The model was then exp<strong>and</strong>ed <strong>and</strong> further developed into its current form.<br />

As part of the <strong>Mining</strong> <strong>Industry</strong> Workforce Information Network (MIWIN) program, <strong>MiHR</strong>’s employment forecasting<br />

capabilities have developed into a dynamic system that allows mining industry stakeholders to monitor key labour<br />

market parameters on an on-going basis. Currently, the features of the system include:<br />

• stable predictions, based on a variety of independent economic forecasts<br />

• occupation-level forecasts with both national <strong>and</strong> regional breakdowns<br />

• multiple forecasts of industry hiring requirements, based on various economic growth scenarios (contractionary,<br />

baseline <strong>and</strong> expansionary)<br />

2010 <strong>Employment</strong> <strong>and</strong> <strong>Hiring</strong> <strong>Forecasts</strong><br />

27


• an online portal where stakeholders can conduct sensitivity analyses based on changes to key economic variables<br />

• the ability to rapidly produce customized reports upon request<br />

This chapter presents forecasts of changes in mining employment <strong>and</strong> hiring requirements across Canada. Changes<br />

in employment by region are calculated using projected fluctuations in commodity price levels <strong>and</strong> estimates of labour<br />

productivity. These employment forecasts are then combined with projected non-retirement separation <strong>and</strong> retirement<br />

rates to produce estimates of hiring requirements. Three scenarios generate employment <strong>and</strong> hiring requirement<br />

forecasts over 10 years.<br />

Assumptions<br />

The forecasting model used here combines the effects of changes in commodity prices, growth in productivity, retirement<br />

rates <strong>and</strong> non-retirement separation rates, to produce estimates of hiring requirements. Three scenarios were developed<br />

to forecast requirements over a 10-year time horizon. Table 6 presents the key assumptions used in model development.<br />

(Note that all growth rates in Table 6 are compound annual growth rates (CAGR), with the exception of non-retirement<br />

separation rates, which are estimated based on national averages.) Further details on the methodology used for this<br />

forecasting exercise are presented in Appendix A.<br />

Table 6<br />

Key Forecast Assumptions<br />

Assumption Baseline Contractionary Expansionary Rationale<br />

Minerals<br />

Price Index<br />

Iron Ore<br />

Price Index<br />

Labour<br />

Productivity<br />

Median<br />

Retirement Age<br />

Non-Retirement<br />

Separation Rate<br />

World Bank Forecast,<br />

2009<br />

World Bank forecast less<br />

the st<strong>and</strong>ard deviation of<br />

historical price indices<br />

over the past 38 years.<br />

World Bank forecast plus<br />

the st<strong>and</strong>ard deviation of<br />

historical price indices<br />

over the past 38 years.<br />

−0.6% CAGR −4.2% CAGR 1.2% CAGR<br />

World Bank Forecast,<br />

Jan. 2010 (Note: used<br />

IMF growth rate for 2009)<br />

World Bank forecast less<br />

the st<strong>and</strong>ard deviation of<br />

historical price indices<br />

over the past 25 years.<br />

World Bank forecast less<br />

the st<strong>and</strong>ard deviation of<br />

historical price indices<br />

over the past 25 years.<br />

−3.8% CAGR −7.1% CAGR −1.9% CAGR<br />

1.8% CAGR 1.5% CAGR 2.0% CAGR<br />

59.5 years<br />

(Labour Force Survey,<br />

Statistics Canada)<br />

59.5 years<br />

(Labour Force Survey,<br />

Statistics Canada)<br />

59.5 years<br />

(Labour Force Survey,<br />

Statistics Canada<br />

The most reliable<br />

long-term forecast<br />

The most reliable<br />

long-term forecast<br />

<strong>Canadian</strong> Centre for Living<br />

St<strong>and</strong>ards data used for<br />

baseline estimate; historical<br />

st<strong>and</strong>ard deviation applied<br />

for contractionary <strong>and</strong><br />

expansionary scenarios<br />

Statistics Canada:<br />

Median Retirement Age<br />

for the <strong>Mining</strong> Sector<br />

(2000–2009)<br />

2.0% 2.0% 2.0% National Average*<br />

Source: <strong>Mining</strong> <strong>Industry</strong> Human Resources Council, Summer 2010.<br />

*For an individual province, the non-retirement separation rate could deviate from the national average, since a worker who leaves the province is lost to the provincial<br />

industry even if they are still working in mining sector elsewhere in Canada.<br />

28 <strong>Mining</strong> <strong>Industry</strong> Workforce Information Network


In general, model development research demonstrates that most variations in mining employment result from a<br />

combination of changes in metal <strong>and</strong> mineral prices, <strong>and</strong> in labour productivity. More precisely, the number of mining<br />

jobs is strongly related to commodity price levels, changes in productivity levels <strong>and</strong> the previous year’s employment.<br />

There is a strong positive correlation between commodity prices <strong>and</strong> employment, offset by a negative correlation<br />

between labour productivity <strong>and</strong> employment. In other words, when commodity prices rise, employment levels increase;<br />

whereas when labour productivity levels rise, employment levels decrease. <strong>Forecasts</strong> of hiring requirements require<br />

information on non-retirement separation rates <strong>and</strong> the average retirement age, in conjunction with age distribution<br />

of the mining workforce.<br />

Consensus forecasts with low, medium <strong>and</strong> high outlooks for commodity prices were blended to create the contractionary,<br />

baseline <strong>and</strong> expansionary projections. It is assumed that both the non-retirement separation rate (set at 2 per cent)<br />

<strong>and</strong> the median retirement age (set at 59.5 years) will remain constant in all three scenarios over the entire forecast<br />

period. 24 Labour productivity estimates, however, vary over the forecast period, based on projected economic changes<br />

affecting productivity. Combining the contractionary, baseline <strong>and</strong> expansionary scenarios for commodity prices <strong>and</strong><br />

labour productivity with respect to each of the employment drivers used in the model, yields projections for changes<br />

in employment in each of the six regions in Canada between 2010 <strong>and</strong> 2020.<br />

Retirement rates are calculated based on the age distribution of the mining workforce for each region, assuming a<br />

retirement age of 59.5 years. For Canada as a whole, retirement rates will increase rapidly from 1.9 per cent in 2010<br />

to 3.5 per cent in 2020. Based on the current age structure of their mining workforces, the provinces with the highest<br />

anticipated retirement rates by 2020 are Ontario (4.7 per cent) <strong>and</strong> Quebec (4.3 per cent). The lowest rates are in the<br />

Territories (2.8 per cent) <strong>and</strong> the Prairies (2.7 per cent). As noted above, these differences reflect the current age profile<br />

of the mining workforce in each of the regions.<br />

Total hiring requirements in any given year are defined as the sum of (i) the change in the number of jobs in the industry<br />

due to selected economic factors (changes in commodity prices <strong>and</strong> productivity) (ii) the number of workers who retire,<br />

<strong>and</strong> (iii) the number of workers who leave the industry for other reasons.<br />

National <strong>Hiring</strong> Requirements <strong>Forecasts</strong><br />

<strong>Forecasts</strong> for Canada are produced by aggregating the changes in employment <strong>and</strong> hiring requirements of the six regions<br />

considered in this study. 25<br />

<strong>Employment</strong> in the <strong>Canadian</strong> mining industry is expected to continue to decline over the forecast period, due to continuous<br />

gains in labour productivity <strong>and</strong> essentially zero growth in commodity prices. However, given the age composition of<br />

the industry, projected retirements <strong>and</strong> historical non-retirement separation rates, the forecast calls for cumulative hiring<br />

requirements of more than half of the current industry workforce by 2020.<br />

24 Readers are advised that an employment <strong>and</strong> hiring requirements forecasting tool for mining is available at www.mininghrforecasts.ca that allows users<br />

to vary these assumptions <strong>and</strong> see the impact on the resulting forecasts.<br />

25 Forecasting models were developed for all six regions of Canada. No specific model was built for Canada as a whole.<br />

2010 <strong>Employment</strong> <strong>and</strong> <strong>Hiring</strong> <strong>Forecasts</strong><br />

29


Table 7 presents the cumulative change in employment <strong>and</strong> replacement requirements under the three different scenarios<br />

over the 10-year horizon. In all three scenarios, replacement dem<strong>and</strong> for workers will exceed changes in employment<br />

driven by price <strong>and</strong> productivity changes. The largest increase in employment, at 16,900 by 2020, is forecast under the<br />

expansionary scenario. This estimate remains significantly lower than either the number of workers who would be retiring<br />

(70,720) or leaving the mining workforce for other reasons (46,920) over the same period.<br />

Table 7<br />

Total <strong>Hiring</strong> Requirements <strong>Forecasts</strong> – Canada<br />

By Scenario – 2020<br />

CHANGE IN<br />

EMPLOYMENT<br />

REPLACEMENT REQUIREMENTS<br />

RETIREMENT<br />

NON-RETIREMENT<br />

Cumulative<br />

HIRING<br />

REQUIREMENTS<br />

Contractionary −41,200 58,630 38,850 56,280<br />

Baseline −8,600 65,290 43,300 99,990<br />

Expansionary 16,900 70,720 46,920 134,540<br />

Source: <strong>Mining</strong> <strong>Industry</strong> Human Resources Council, Summer 2010.<br />

Figure 15 illustrates the overall hiring requirements of the industry on an annual basis over the forecast period.<br />

With the exception of 2011, virtually all hiring requirements will stem from the need to replace workers retiring or<br />

leaving the mining industry for other reasons. Each year there are substantial hiring requirements, with a slight<br />

peak of 12,000 workers in 2011.<br />

Figure 15<br />

Annual <strong>Hiring</strong> Requirements <strong>Forecasts</strong> – Canada<br />

Baseline Scenario – 2010 to 2020<br />

14,000<br />

12,000<br />

Change in <strong>Employment</strong> Non-Retirement Retirement<br />

Number of Workers Required<br />

10,000<br />

8,000<br />

6,000<br />

4,000<br />

2,000<br />

0<br />

–2,000<br />

–4,000<br />

2010<br />

2011<br />

2012<br />

2013<br />

2014<br />

2015<br />

2016<br />

2017<br />

2018<br />

2019<br />

2020<br />

Source: <strong>Mining</strong> <strong>Industry</strong> Human Resources Council, Summer 2010.<br />

30 <strong>Mining</strong> <strong>Industry</strong> Workforce Information Network


Table 8 summarizes the cumulative hiring requirements for Canada in 2012, 2015 <strong>and</strong> 2020, under the contractionary,<br />

baseline <strong>and</strong> expansionary scenarios. The baseline scenario projects the need to hire 29,080 workers by 2012, due<br />

to changes in economic factors <strong>and</strong> to increased retirements <strong>and</strong> other separations from the industry. If commodity<br />

prices perform better than expected in the baseline scenario, the total cumulative hiring requirements could grow to<br />

41,150 workers.<br />

Table 8<br />

Cumulative <strong>Hiring</strong> Requirements <strong>Forecasts</strong> – Canada<br />

By Scenario – 2012, 2015, 2020<br />

Cumulative <strong>Hiring</strong> Requirements<br />

2012 2015 2020<br />

Contractionary 15,160 28,120 56,280<br />

Baseline 29,080 53,150 99,990<br />

Expansionary 41,150 74,100 134,540<br />

Source: <strong>Mining</strong> <strong>Industry</strong> Human Resources Council, Summer 2010.<br />

By 2020, under the baseline scenario, cumulative hiring requirements are forecast at nearly 100,000 new mining workers,<br />

with a range of 56,280 for the contraction scenario to 134,540 workers under the expansion scenario.<br />

<strong>Forecasts</strong> by Occupation<br />

The current forecasting system includes up to 55 different mining occupations as defined by NOC-S categories. Given<br />

the constraints of NOC-S categories discussed in Chapter 2, these occupational categories represent about half the<br />

entire mining industry workforce in Canada (as defined by NAICS industry codes). 26 The selected mining occupations<br />

can be grouped into the following six general categories:<br />

• Trades <strong>and</strong> Undesignated Occupations<br />

• Professional <strong>and</strong> Physical Science Occupations<br />

• Managers <strong>and</strong>/or Financial Occupations<br />

• Support Workers<br />

• Technical Occupations<br />

• Supervisors, Coordinators <strong>and</strong> Foremen<br />

Table 9 provides estimates of cumulative hiring requirements for the baseline scenario under these broad occupational<br />

categories. Each category also lists requirements for a selection of occupations within the group that are most relevant<br />

to the industry. The greatest need will be in Trades <strong>and</strong> Undesignated Occupations, at 31,797, which represents about<br />

32 per cent of total hiring requirements by 2020. The other broad occupational categories expected to be in high dem<strong>and</strong><br />

are Supervisors, Coordinators <strong>and</strong> Foremen (6,258 workers, six per cent of total hiring requirements); Professional <strong>and</strong><br />

Physical Science (3,810 workers, 4 per cent); <strong>and</strong> Technical Occupations (3,204 workers, three per cent).<br />

26 Statistics Canada National Occupational Classification — Statistics (NOC-S) codes are the source of the occupational breakdown. The missing NOCs<br />

currently represent about half mining employment. Ultimately, the goal is to cover a greater share of mining employment through an extended<br />

list of occupations.<br />

2010 <strong>Employment</strong> <strong>and</strong> <strong>Hiring</strong> <strong>Forecasts</strong><br />

31


Table 9<br />

Cumulative <strong>Hiring</strong> Requirements – By Broad Occupational Categories <strong>and</strong> Relevant <strong>Mining</strong> Occupations<br />

Baseline Scenario – 2012, 2015, 2020<br />

CUMULATIVE HIRING REQUIREMENTS<br />

2012 2015 2020<br />

TRADES AND UNDESIGNATED OCCUPATIONS<br />

Plumbers 33 61 122<br />

Steamfitters, pipefitters <strong>and</strong> sprinkler system installers 317 576 1,018<br />

Carpenters 70 124 228<br />

Industrial electricians 480 880 1,735<br />

Welders <strong>and</strong> related machine operators 713 1,293 2,416<br />

Construction millwrights <strong>and</strong> industrial mechanics 1,029 1,898 3,796<br />

Heavy-duty equipment mechanics 635 1,145 2,185<br />

Heavy equipment operators (except crane) 1,585 2,829 5,166<br />

Drillers <strong>and</strong> blasters – Surface mining, quarrying <strong>and</strong> construction 116 210 401<br />

Truck drivers 1,379 2,487 4,441<br />

Construction trades helpers <strong>and</strong> labourers 304 553 1,029<br />

Other trades helpers <strong>and</strong> labourers 51 89 158<br />

Underground production <strong>and</strong> development miners 1,144 2,098 4,107<br />

Mine labourers 305 538 1,014<br />

Machine operators, mineral <strong>and</strong> metal processing 460 852 1,903<br />

Labourers in mineral <strong>and</strong> metal processing 544 1,027 2,260<br />

Total 9,165 16,660 31,797<br />

PROFESSIONAL AND PHYSICAL SCIENCE OCCUPATIONS<br />

Engineering managers 59 105 191<br />

Chemists 33 58 116<br />

Geologists, geochemists <strong>and</strong> geophysicists 382 682 1,258<br />

Other professional occupations in physical sciences 47 87 178<br />

Biologists <strong>and</strong> related scientists 5 9 17<br />

Civil engineers 28 53 105<br />

Mechanical engineers 100 187 348<br />

Electrical <strong>and</strong> electronics engineers 56 104 197<br />

Chemical engineers 44 81 156<br />

Industrial <strong>and</strong> manufacturing engineers 97 180 372<br />

Metallurgical <strong>and</strong> materials engineers 47 89 196<br />

<strong>Mining</strong> engineers 176 319 615<br />

Geological engineers 17 31 54<br />

Other professional engineers, n.e.c. 3 4 7<br />

Total 1,094 1,989 3,810<br />

Source: <strong>Mining</strong> <strong>Industry</strong> Human Resources Council, Summer 2010.<br />

32 <strong>Mining</strong> <strong>Industry</strong> Workforce Information Network


Table 9 (continued)<br />

Cumulative <strong>Hiring</strong> Requirements – By Broad Occupational Categories <strong>and</strong> Relevant <strong>Mining</strong> Occupations<br />

Baseline Scenario – 2012, 2015, 2020<br />

CUMULATIVE HIRING REQUIREMENTS<br />

2012 2015 2020<br />

MANAGERS AND/OR FINANCIAL OCCUPATIONS<br />

Financial managers 102 187 345<br />

Human resources managers 98 182 339<br />

Financial auditors <strong>and</strong> accountants 305 554 1,026<br />

Financial <strong>and</strong> investment analysts 28 51 104<br />

Specialists in human resources 90 162 313<br />

Total 623 1,136 2,127<br />

SUPPORT WORKERS<br />

Secretaries (except legal <strong>and</strong> medical) 397 724 1,306<br />

Administrative clerks 110 196 352<br />

Cooks 73 126 216<br />

Underground mine service <strong>and</strong> support workers 255 463 903<br />

Total 835 1,509 2,777<br />

TECHNICAL OCCUPATIONS<br />

L<strong>and</strong> surveyors 55 98 178<br />

Chemical technologists <strong>and</strong> technicians 136 252 493<br />

Geological <strong>and</strong> mineral technologists <strong>and</strong> technicians 384 688 1,311<br />

Biological technologists <strong>and</strong> technicians 11 18 30<br />

Civil engineering technologists <strong>and</strong> technicians 7 12 25<br />

Mechanical engineering technologists <strong>and</strong> technicians 63 118 226<br />

Industrial engineering <strong>and</strong> manufacturing technologists <strong>and</strong> technicians 60 115 236<br />

Electrical <strong>and</strong> electronics engineering technologists <strong>and</strong> technicians 108 199 404<br />

Drafting technologists <strong>and</strong> technicians 64 117 227<br />

L<strong>and</strong> survey technologists <strong>and</strong> technicians 12 23 43<br />

Mapping <strong>and</strong> related technologists <strong>and</strong> technicians 9 17 31<br />

Total 909 1,657 3,204<br />

SUPERVISORS, COORDINATORS AND FOREMEN<br />

Construction managers 54 99 176<br />

Primary production managers (except agriculture) 922 1,666 2,951<br />

Construction estimators 9 17 33<br />

Supervisors, mining <strong>and</strong> quarrying 499 906 1,777<br />

Supervisors, mineral <strong>and</strong> metal processing 314 594 1,321<br />

Total 1,798 3,282 6,258<br />

Source: <strong>Mining</strong> <strong>Industry</strong> Human Resources Council, Summer 2010.<br />

2010 <strong>Employment</strong> <strong>and</strong> <strong>Hiring</strong> <strong>Forecasts</strong><br />

33


The top occupations in terms of hiring requirements include:<br />

• Heavy-equipment operators (except crane)<br />

• Truck drivers<br />

• Underground production <strong>and</strong> development miners<br />

• Construction millwrights <strong>and</strong> industrial mechanics<br />

• Primary production managers<br />

• Welders <strong>and</strong> related machine operators<br />

• Heavy-duty equipment mechanics<br />

• Labourers in mineral <strong>and</strong> metal processing<br />

• Supervisors, mining <strong>and</strong> quarrying<br />

• Industrial electricians<br />

By 2020, hiring requirements for these occupations will total nearly 31,000 workers (about 30 per cent of total requirements).<br />

Regional <strong>Hiring</strong> Requirements <strong>Forecasts</strong><br />

This section presents forecasts of employment <strong>and</strong> hiring requirements for all six regions considered in this report.<br />

At the outset of this project, it had been anticipated that forecasts of employment dem<strong>and</strong> <strong>and</strong> hiring requirements<br />

would be produced for each province. However, certain Statistics Canada data limitations precluded the development<br />

of provincial forecasts. Model development was therefore restricted to the following geographical regions:<br />

• Atlantic<br />

• Quebec<br />

• Ontario<br />

• Prairies<br />

• British Columbia<br />

• Territories<br />

Note that comparisons across regions should be approached with caution. Economic factors affecting changes in<br />

employment differ for each region. For example, as noted in Chapter 2, there are large differences in labour productivity<br />

between Canada’s North <strong>and</strong> all other regions. In addition, there are large differences in the age profiles of the regions.<br />

These differences will have the greatest influence at the end of the forecast period, as Canada’s population continues to<br />

age. That said, a few differences are highlighted here before details for each region are presented.<br />

Table 10 provides an overview of the projected levels of mining employment for the years 2012, 2015 <strong>and</strong> 2020 under<br />

the baseline scenario. While total mining sector employment across Canada is declining, as noted earlier, the workforce<br />

is forecast to grow in two regions: the Prairies will see an average annual growth rate of 1.1 per cent between 2010 <strong>and</strong><br />

2020, <strong>and</strong> the Territories’ average annual growth rate over the same period will be 1.8 per cent. The remaining regions<br />

are expected to experience a contraction in total employment between now <strong>and</strong> 2020.<br />

Most of the reduction in the size of the <strong>Canadian</strong> mining workforce is due to increased productivity. The impact of<br />

productivity improvements is compounded by modest outlooks for commodity prices. The World Bank forecasts average<br />

annual growth in the Minerals Price Index ranging from –4.2 per cent to 1.2 per cent between 2011 <strong>and</strong> 2020, with<br />

a projected baseline annual change of –0.6 per cent. In Quebec, iron ore prices are used to establish the commodity<br />

price outlook for the region. This outlook predicts negative average annual growth for all scenarios: –7.1 per cent<br />

(contractionary), –3.8 per cent (baseline) <strong>and</strong> –1.9 per cent (expansionary).<br />

34 <strong>Mining</strong> <strong>Industry</strong> Workforce Information Network


Table 10<br />

Total <strong>Mining</strong> <strong>Employment</strong> by Region<br />

Baseline Scenario – 2012, 2015, 2020<br />

Average Annual<br />

Growth Rate<br />

2012 2015 2020 2010–2020<br />

Atlantic 10,400 9,400 8,000 −2.6%<br />

Quebec 39,100 35,100 33,700 −1.9%<br />

Ontario 41,900 38,700 36,100 −1.7%<br />

Prairies 87,300 89,500 90,700 1.1%<br />

British Columbia 20,600 19,600 18,700 −0.7%<br />

Territories 3,900 4,000 4,000 1.8%<br />

Canada 203,200 196,300 191,200 −0.4%<br />

Source: <strong>Mining</strong> <strong>Industry</strong> Human Resources Council, Summer 2010.*<br />

*Note: <strong>Employment</strong> growth rates differ year-over-year in the forecasting model. The last column presents the average annual growth rates of total mining employment<br />

over the forecast period.<br />

The non-retirement separation rate of two per cent a year used for all three scenarios applies to the mining industry in<br />

Canada as whole. In reality, this rate underestimates the non-retirement separation occurring within individual regions.<br />

This stems from the fact that an employee may leave one province but continue to work in the sector in another part of<br />

the country. Indeed, the mining workforce tends to be more mobile than in other sectors. Therefore, regional estimates of<br />

replacement requirements due to non-retirement separation presented in this report are considered to be conservative. 27<br />

Regional Occupational Breakdowns<br />

<strong>Hiring</strong> requirements by occupation are presented for each region. These regional occupational breakdowns are calculated<br />

by applying the estimated proportion of the workforce in each occupation (known as an occupational coefficient) to the<br />

forecasted total hiring requirements, for all occupations. These occupational coefficients are based on Statistics Canada<br />

2006 Census data <strong>and</strong> industry consultation conducted for previous versions of the forecasting model. Limited availability of<br />

census data precluded detailed analysis of occupational structure by region across all occupations in the mining industry. 28<br />

Atlantic Region<br />

<strong>Employment</strong> in the mining industry for the Atlantic region (Newfoundl<strong>and</strong> <strong>and</strong> Labrador, Nova Scotia, <strong>and</strong> New Brunswick)<br />

is expected to decline by an average of 2.6 per cent per year over the forecast period. However, there will be increased<br />

hiring requirements in the baseline <strong>and</strong> expansion scenarios, largely due to the need to replace workers who will retire<br />

or leave the sector for other reasons.<br />

Table 11 summarizes the cumulative hiring requirements for the Atlantic region under the contractionary, baseline <strong>and</strong><br />

expansionary scenarios for short, medium <strong>and</strong> long-term horizons. Under the baseline scenario, it is estimated that<br />

approximately 2,500 workers (representing 24 per cent of the current workforce) will need to be hired by 2020. However,<br />

27 These assumptions can be varied when using <strong>MiHR</strong>’s online forecasting tool. Please visit www.mininghrforecasts.ca.<br />

28 <strong>MiHR</strong> will continue to conduct primary research <strong>and</strong> analysis to further define the occupational coefficients, for each region.<br />

2010 <strong>Employment</strong> <strong>and</strong> <strong>Hiring</strong> <strong>Forecasts</strong><br />

35


if metal <strong>and</strong> mineral prices decline, there is a possibility that hiring requirements in the Atlantic region will decline,<br />

as shown in the industry contractionary scenario.<br />

Table 11<br />

Cumulative <strong>Hiring</strong> Requirements <strong>Forecasts</strong> – Atlantic Region<br />

By Scenario – 2012, 2015, 2020<br />

Cumulative <strong>Hiring</strong> Requirements<br />

2012 2015 2020<br />

Contractionary −90 −350 −520<br />

Baseline 1,020 1,610 2,530<br />

Expansionary 2,040 3,410 5,250<br />

Source: <strong>Mining</strong> <strong>Industry</strong> Human Resources Council, Summer 2010.<br />

Figure 16 illustrates Atlantic region hiring requirements on a year-over-year basis for the baseline scenario. Total<br />

employment will decline throughout the forecast period, based on the outlook for commodity prices <strong>and</strong> steady<br />

productivity gains. However, largely because of replacement dem<strong>and</strong>s, the industry will need to hire between<br />

400 <strong>and</strong> 550 workers each year.<br />

Figure 16<br />

Total <strong>Hiring</strong> Requirements <strong>Forecasts</strong> – Atlantic Region<br />

Baseline Scenario – 2010 to 2020<br />

600<br />

Change in <strong>Employment</strong><br />

Non-Retirement<br />

Retirement<br />

500<br />

400<br />

Number of Workers Required<br />

300<br />

200<br />

100<br />

0<br />

–100<br />

–200<br />

–300<br />

–400<br />

2010<br />

2011<br />

2012<br />

2013<br />

2014<br />

2015<br />

2016<br />

2017<br />

2018<br />

2019<br />

2020<br />

Source: <strong>Mining</strong> <strong>Industry</strong> Human Resources Council, Summer 2010.<br />

36 <strong>Mining</strong> <strong>Industry</strong> Workforce Information Network


In reference to specific occupations, hiring requirements in the Atlantic region under the baseline scenario will be<br />

greatest for heavy-equipment operators (except crane) <strong>and</strong> underground production <strong>and</strong> development miners, as<br />

shown in Table 12.<br />

Table 12<br />

Cumulative <strong>Hiring</strong> Requirements of Top 10 Occupations in Atlantic Region<br />

Baseline Scenario – 2012, 2015, 2020<br />

TOP 10 OCCUPATIONS<br />

CUMULATIVE HIRING REQUIREMENTS<br />

2012 2015 2020<br />

Heavy equipment operators (except crane) 89 141 222<br />

Underground production <strong>and</strong> development miners 64 101 158<br />

Truck drivers 43 68 107<br />

Welders <strong>and</strong> related machine operators 42 66 104<br />

Construction millwrights <strong>and</strong> industrial mechanics (except textile) 42 66 103<br />

Heavy-duty equipment mechanics 34 54 85<br />

Supervisors, mining <strong>and</strong> quarrying 31 49 78<br />

Industrial electricians 31 49 77<br />

Mine labourers 26 40 63<br />

Steamfitters, pipefitters <strong>and</strong> sprinkler system installers 20 32 50<br />

Source: <strong>Mining</strong> <strong>Industry</strong> Human Resources Council, Summer 2010.<br />

Quebec<br />

Forecasted iron ore prices in conjunction with productivity increases are expected to reduce overall mining employment<br />

in Quebec by close to 20 per cent by 2020. Nevertheless, due to the age of the workforce <strong>and</strong> other replacement needs,<br />

hiring requirements are significant. As shown in Table 13, over the next three years (to 2012), 2,850 workers will need<br />

to be hired under the baseline scenario. This estimate increases to 14,450 workers by 2020. The cumulative hiring<br />

requirements for Quebec in 2020 range from 7,880 workers in the contractionary scenario to 19,560 workers in the<br />

expansionary scenario.<br />

Table 13<br />

Cumulative <strong>Hiring</strong> Requirements <strong>Forecasts</strong> – Quebec<br />

By Scenario – 2012, 2015, 2020<br />

Cumulative <strong>Hiring</strong> Requirements<br />

2012 2015 2020<br />

Contractionary 630 1,500 7,880<br />

Baseline 2,850 5,370 14,450<br />

Expansionary 4,850 8,630 19,560<br />

Source: <strong>Mining</strong> <strong>Industry</strong> Human Resources Council, Summer 2010.<br />

2010 <strong>Employment</strong> <strong>and</strong> <strong>Hiring</strong> <strong>Forecasts</strong><br />

37


As shown in Figure 17, changes in employment in Quebec are pronounced over the first half of the forecast period.<br />

A short-lived recovery predicted for 2011 is expected to create 1,750 jobs. Reductions in employment will resume between<br />

2013 <strong>and</strong> 2020. This profile for Quebec’s mining employment is driven by projected movements in iron ore prices <strong>and</strong><br />

continuous gains in labour productivity. Nevertheless, hiring requirements in Quebec will remain positive due to replacement<br />

dem<strong>and</strong>s, with approximately 2,000 new hires required each year, on average.<br />

Figure 17<br />

Total <strong>Hiring</strong> Requirements <strong>Forecasts</strong> – Quebec<br />

Baseline Scenario – 2010 to 2020<br />

4,000<br />

Change in <strong>Employment</strong><br />

Non-Retirement<br />

Retirement<br />

3,000<br />

2,000<br />

Number of Workers Required<br />

1,000<br />

0<br />

–1,000<br />

–2,000<br />

–3,000<br />

–4,000<br />

–5,000<br />

2010<br />

2011<br />

2012<br />

2013<br />

2014<br />

2015<br />

2016<br />

2017<br />

2018<br />

2019<br />

2020<br />

Source: <strong>Mining</strong> <strong>Industry</strong> Human Resources Council, Summer 2010.<br />

Table 14 shows the occupations with the greatest hiring requirements in Quebec under the baseline scenario. In general,<br />

mining activities in Quebec will require more construction millwrights <strong>and</strong> industrial mechanics, machine operators,<br />

<strong>and</strong> workers in mineral <strong>and</strong> metal processing, which is consistent with the large amount of mineral refinery activities<br />

in Quebec compared to the rest of Canada.<br />

38 <strong>Mining</strong> <strong>Industry</strong> Workforce Information Network


Table 14<br />

Cumulative <strong>Hiring</strong> Requirements of Top 10 Occupations in Quebec<br />

Baseline Scenario – 2012, 2015, 2020<br />

TOP 10 OCCUPATIONS<br />

CUMULATIVE HIRING REQUIREMENTS<br />

2012 2015 2020<br />

Construction millwrights <strong>and</strong> industrial mechanics (except textile) 197 371 997<br />

Machine operators, mineral <strong>and</strong> metal processing 195 369 991<br />

Labourers in mineral <strong>and</strong> metal processing 166 313 840<br />

Underground production <strong>and</strong> development miners 138 260 698<br />

Heavy equipment operators (except crane) 116 220 590<br />

Supervisors, mineral <strong>and</strong> metal processing 106 201 540<br />

Heavy-duty equipment mechanics 79 148 399<br />

Supervisors, mining <strong>and</strong> quarrying 77 145 389<br />

Welders <strong>and</strong> related machine operators 76 143 386<br />

Industrial electricians 67 126 337<br />

Source: <strong>Mining</strong> <strong>Industry</strong> Human Resources Council, Summer 2010.<br />

Ontario<br />

Ontario’s hiring requirements are expected to be similar to those of Quebec. Between 2010 <strong>and</strong> 2020, total mining<br />

employment in Ontario is projected to decline from 44,000 to 36,100 — a contraction of approximately 18 per cent.<br />

However, an aging labour force combined with non-retirement separations will generate significant replacement<br />

dem<strong>and</strong>. As Table 15 shows, under the baseline scenario, Ontario will need to hire 4,280 workers by 2012 <strong>and</strong> close to<br />

18,000 by 2020. The latter number represents 41 per cent of the current mining workforce in Ontario. In the expansionary<br />

scenario, Ontario’s workforce will need to increase by almost 19,500, which is 45 per cent over current levels.<br />

Table 15<br />

Cumulative <strong>Hiring</strong> Requirements <strong>Forecasts</strong> – Ontario<br />

By Scenario – 2012, 2015, 2020<br />

Cumulative <strong>Hiring</strong> Requirements<br />

2012 2015 2020<br />

Contractionary 2,470 6,310 15,380<br />

Baseline 4,280 8,480 17,910<br />

Expansionary 5,730 10,040 19,460<br />

Source: <strong>Mining</strong> <strong>Industry</strong> Human Resources Council, Summer 2010.<br />

<strong>Mining</strong> employment in Ontario will decline over most of the forecast horizon, as shown in Figure 18. Replacement<br />

dem<strong>and</strong>, however, will be substantial, averaging about 2,300 workers each year between 2010 <strong>and</strong> 2020.<br />

2010 <strong>Employment</strong> <strong>and</strong> <strong>Hiring</strong> <strong>Forecasts</strong><br />

39


Figure 18<br />

Total <strong>Hiring</strong> Requirements <strong>Forecasts</strong> – Ontario<br />

Baseline Scenario – 2010 to 2020<br />

3,000<br />

Change in <strong>Employment</strong><br />

Non-Retirement<br />

Retirement<br />

2,500<br />

2,000<br />

Number of Workers Required<br />

1,500<br />

1,000<br />

500<br />

0<br />

–500<br />

–1,000<br />

–1,500<br />

2010<br />

2011<br />

2012<br />

2013<br />

2014<br />

2015<br />

2016<br />

2017<br />

2018<br />

2019<br />

2020<br />

Source: <strong>Mining</strong> <strong>Industry</strong> Human Resources Council, Summer 2010.<br />

Table 16 shows the occupations with the greatest hiring requirements in Ontario, under the baseline scenario.<br />

The province’s greatest requirements will be for underground miners, <strong>and</strong> mineral <strong>and</strong> metal processing labourers.<br />

Table 16<br />

Cumulative <strong>Hiring</strong> Requirements of Top 10 Occupations in Ontario<br />

Baseline Scenario – 2012, 2015, 2020<br />

TOP 10 OCCUPATIONS<br />

CUMULATIVE HIRING REQUIREMENTS<br />

2012 2015 2020<br />

Underground production <strong>and</strong> development miners 351 696 1,469<br />

Labourers in mineral <strong>and</strong> metal processing 238 472 995<br />

Construction millwrights <strong>and</strong> industrial mechanics (except textile) 225 445 940<br />

Heavy equipment operators (except crane) 155 308 650<br />

Supervisors, mineral <strong>and</strong> metal processing 131 259 546<br />

Industrial electricians 129 256 541<br />

Supervisors, mining <strong>and</strong> quarrying 108 214 451<br />

Machine operators, mineral <strong>and</strong> metal processing 101 201 424<br />

Heavy-duty equipment mechanics 91 181 382<br />

Truck drivers 84 166 350<br />

Source: <strong>Mining</strong> <strong>Industry</strong> Human Resources Council, Summer 2010.<br />

40 <strong>Mining</strong> <strong>Industry</strong> Workforce Information Network


Prairie Region<br />

Unlike other regions in Canada, the Prairie provinces (Manitoba, Saskatchewan <strong>and</strong> Alberta) are expected to experience<br />

employment growth over the next 10 years, largely due to expansion in support services activities. 29 <strong>Employment</strong> in<br />

the baseline scenario is expected to grow on average by 1.1 per cent per year throughout the forecast period. By 2020,<br />

employment in the Prairies will be about 13 per cent higher than in 2009.<br />

The bulk of the hiring requirements will occur earlier in the Prairie region than in most of the other <strong>Canadian</strong> regions<br />

(Figure 19). As shown in Table 17, the industry will need to hire 16,500 workers over the next three years in the baseline<br />

scenario, which represents nearly 32 per cent of the total cumulative hiring requirements in the Prairies over the 10-year<br />

forecast period. By 2020, this region is expected to have the largest hiring requirement in Canada, needing more than<br />

52,000 workers.<br />

Figure 19<br />

Total <strong>Hiring</strong> Requirements <strong>Forecasts</strong> – Prairie Region<br />

Baseline Scenario – 2010 to 2020<br />

6,000<br />

Change in <strong>Employment</strong><br />

Non-Retirement<br />

Retirement<br />

5,000<br />

Number of Workers Required<br />

4,000<br />

3,000<br />

2,000<br />

1,000<br />

0<br />

2010<br />

2011<br />

2012<br />

2013<br />

2014<br />

2015<br />

2016<br />

2017<br />

2018<br />

2019<br />

2020<br />

Source: <strong>Mining</strong> <strong>Industry</strong> Human Resources Council, Summer 2010.<br />

29 It should be noted here that these forecasts do not include employment in the oil s<strong>and</strong>s.<br />

2010 <strong>Employment</strong> <strong>and</strong> <strong>Hiring</strong> <strong>Forecasts</strong><br />

41


Table 17<br />

Cumulative <strong>Hiring</strong> Requirements <strong>Forecasts</strong> – Prairie Region<br />

By Scenario – 2012, 2015, 2020<br />

Cumulative <strong>Hiring</strong> Requirements<br />

2012 2015 2020<br />

Contractionary 10,260 17,320 27,240<br />

Baseline 16,500 30,400 52,250<br />

Expansionary 21,740 41,240 72,440<br />

Source: <strong>Mining</strong> <strong>Industry</strong> Human Resources Council, Summer 2010.<br />

Table 18 shows that occupations with the highest hiring requirements in the Prairies include truck drivers, heavy-equipment<br />

operators <strong>and</strong> production managers.<br />

Table 18<br />

Cumulative <strong>Hiring</strong> Requirements of Top 10 Occupations in Prairie Region<br />

Baseline Scenario – 2012, 2015, 2020<br />

TOP 10 OCCUPATIONS<br />

CUMULATIVE HIRING REQUIREMENTS<br />

2012 2015 2020<br />

Truck drivers 932 1,718 2,952<br />

Heavy equipment operators (except crane) 788 1,452 2,495<br />

Primary production managers (except agriculture) 661 1,217 2,092<br />

Construction millwrights <strong>and</strong> industrial mechanics (except textile) 446 821 1,411<br />

Welders <strong>and</strong> related machine operators 423 779 1,339<br />

Underground production <strong>and</strong> development miners 380 699 1,202<br />

Secretaries (except legal <strong>and</strong> medical) 297 547 941<br />

Heavy-duty equipment mechanics 273 504 866<br />

Steamfitters, pipefitters <strong>and</strong> sprinkler system installers 232 427 734<br />

Construction trades helpers <strong>and</strong> labourers 184 339 583<br />

Source: <strong>Mining</strong> <strong>Industry</strong> Human Resources Council, Summer 2010.<br />

42 <strong>Mining</strong> <strong>Industry</strong> Workforce Information Network


British Columbia<br />

In British Columbia, overall employment in the mining sector is expected to decline by an average of 0.7 per cent each<br />

year between 2010 <strong>and</strong> 2020. However, as shown in Table 19, cumulative hiring requirements in British Columbia will<br />

remain positive in all three scenarios.<br />

Table 19<br />

Cumulative <strong>Hiring</strong> Requirements <strong>Forecasts</strong> – British Columbia<br />

By Scenario – 2012, 2015, 2020<br />

Cumulative <strong>Hiring</strong> Requirements<br />

2012 2015 2020<br />

Contractionary 1,520 2,680 5,580<br />

Baseline 3,440 5,650 10,200<br />

Expansionary 5,070 8,030 13,610<br />

Source: <strong>Mining</strong> <strong>Industry</strong> Human Resources Council, Summer 2010.<br />

Figure 20 shows the change in employment <strong>and</strong> replacement requirements in British Columbia on a year-over-year basis.<br />

<strong>Employment</strong> is expected to increase in both 2010 <strong>and</strong> 2011, <strong>and</strong> to decline for the remainder of the forecast period.<br />

In contrast, replacement requirements are forecast to be relatively stable, averaging roughly 1,100 workers each year.<br />

Figure 20<br />

Total <strong>Hiring</strong> Requirements <strong>Forecasts</strong> – British Columbia<br />

Baseline Scenario – 2010 to 2020<br />

1,400<br />

1,200<br />

Change in <strong>Employment</strong><br />

Non-Retirement<br />

Retirement<br />

Number of Workers Required<br />

1,000<br />

800<br />

600<br />

400<br />

200<br />

0<br />

–200<br />

–400<br />

–600<br />

2010<br />

2011<br />

2012<br />

2013<br />

2014<br />

2015<br />

2016<br />

2017<br />

2018<br />

2019<br />

2020<br />

Source: <strong>Mining</strong> <strong>Industry</strong> Human Resources Council, Summer 2010.<br />

2010 <strong>Employment</strong> <strong>and</strong> <strong>Hiring</strong> <strong>Forecasts</strong><br />

43


Table 20 shows the occupations with the greatest hiring requirements under the baseline scenario. British Columbia<br />

requires significant numbers of heavy equipment operators, truck drivers <strong>and</strong> heavy duty mechanics.<br />

Table 20<br />

Cumulative <strong>Hiring</strong> Requirements of Top 10 Occupations in British Columbia<br />

Baseline Scenario – 2012, 2015, 2020<br />

TOP 10 OCCUPATIONS<br />

CUMULATIVE HIRING REQUIREMENTS<br />

2012 2015 2020<br />

Heavy equipment operators (except crane) 285 468 845<br />

Truck drivers 194 319 575<br />

Heavy-duty equipment mechanics 132 217 391<br />

Underground production <strong>and</strong> development miners 131 216 389<br />

Primary production managers (except agriculture) 129 211 381<br />

Construction millwrights <strong>and</strong> industrial mechanics (except textile) 104 171 308<br />

Geologists, geochemists <strong>and</strong> geophysicists 92 151 272<br />

Geological <strong>and</strong> mineral technologists <strong>and</strong> technicians 92 151 272<br />

Supervisors, mining <strong>and</strong> quarrying 85 139 251<br />

Welders <strong>and</strong> related machine operators 80 131 236<br />

Source: <strong>Mining</strong> <strong>Industry</strong> Human Resources Council, Summer 2010.<br />

Territories<br />

As discussed earlier in this report, employment in the Territories (Nunavut, Northwest Territories <strong>and</strong> Yukon) is expected<br />

to grow under all three scenarios. The relatively small workforce will increase from 3,500 to 4,000 under the baseline<br />

scenario by 2020. This is an average growth rate of 1.8 per cent, the fastest projected pace of job growth of all<br />

Canada’s regions.<br />

The bulk of the hiring requirements will take place earlier in the Territories than in the other <strong>Canadian</strong> regions. As shown<br />

in Table 21, the region will need to hire 1,100 workers over the next three years in the baseline scenario. This represents<br />

nearly 42 per cent of total projected hiring requirements by 2020. In that year, the Territories will need to hire 2,650 workers<br />

under the baseline scenario.<br />

Table 21<br />

Cumulative <strong>Hiring</strong> Requirements <strong>Forecasts</strong> – Territories<br />

By Scenario – 2012, 2015, 2020<br />

Cumulative <strong>Hiring</strong> Requirements<br />

2012 2015 2020<br />

Contractionary 540 680 850<br />

Baseline 1,100 1,740 2,650<br />

Expansionary 1,590 2,690 4,270<br />

Source: <strong>Mining</strong> <strong>Industry</strong> Human Resources Council, Summer 2010.<br />

44 <strong>Mining</strong> <strong>Industry</strong> Workforce Information Network


Figure 21<br />

Total <strong>Hiring</strong> Requirements <strong>Forecasts</strong> – Territories<br />

Baseline Scenario – 2010 to 2020<br />

Number of Workers Required<br />

400<br />

350<br />

300<br />

250<br />

200<br />

150<br />

100<br />

Change in <strong>Employment</strong><br />

Non-Retirement<br />

Retirement<br />

50<br />

0<br />

−50<br />

2010<br />

2011<br />

2012<br />

2013<br />

2014<br />

2015<br />

2016<br />

2017<br />

2018<br />

2019<br />

2020<br />

Source: <strong>Mining</strong> <strong>Industry</strong> Human Resources Council, Summer 2010.<br />

As shown in Figure 21, the Territories’ hiring requirements will moderate in the second half of the forecast period<br />

under the baseline scenario.<br />

Table 22 shows the occupations with the greatest hiring requirements in the Territories under the baseline scenario.<br />

Similar to other regions (Atlantic, Prairies <strong>and</strong> British Columbia), the occupations that require the most hires are heavy<br />

equipment operators, underground production <strong>and</strong> development miners, <strong>and</strong> truck drivers.<br />

Table 22<br />

Cumulative <strong>Hiring</strong> Requirements of Top 10 Occupations in the Territories<br />

Baseline Scenario – 2012, 2015, 2020<br />

TOP 10 OCCUPATIONS<br />

CUMULATIVE HIRING REQUIREMENTS<br />

2012 2015 2020<br />

Heavy equipment operators (except crane) 152 240 364<br />

Underground production <strong>and</strong> development miners 80 126 191<br />

Truck drivers 67 106 160<br />

Mine labourers 46 73 111<br />

Primary production managers (except agriculture) 41 65 99<br />

Cooks 36 57 86<br />

Geologists, geochemists <strong>and</strong> geophysicists 31 49 74<br />

Geological <strong>and</strong> mineral technologists <strong>and</strong> technicians 26 41 62<br />

Heavy-duty equipment mechanics 26 41 62<br />

Supervisors, mining <strong>and</strong> quarrying 26 41 62<br />

Source: <strong>Mining</strong> <strong>Industry</strong> Human Resources Council, Summer 2010.<br />

2010 <strong>Employment</strong> <strong>and</strong> <strong>Hiring</strong> <strong>Forecasts</strong><br />

45


4 Discussion<br />

In the near future, the <strong>Canadian</strong> mining industry will face significant challenges in meeting the dem<strong>and</strong> for workers.<br />

Slow labour force growth, combined with an aging population, will create significant pressures on the mining labour<br />

market. Despite remarkable achievements over the past five years in increasing the participation of new <strong>Canadian</strong>s,<br />

Aboriginal peoples <strong>and</strong> women in the mining workforce, there will nevertheless soon be a labour shortage.<br />

By 2020, the mining industry will need to hire nearly 100,000 workers in response to changes in employment <strong>and</strong><br />

replacement of workers retiring or leaving the industry (assuming a baseline scenario). This represents nearly one-half of<br />

the size of the 2009 workforce. If commodity prices perform better than expected, the total cumulative hiring requirement<br />

estimate could reach 134,540 workers under the expansionary scenario. <strong>Hiring</strong> requirements will vary across regions,<br />

generally due to the combined influences of regional productivity rates <strong>and</strong> the age composition of the workforce.<br />

Making the Best Use of All Possible Sources of Talent<br />

In recent years, the mining industry has adopted proactive strategies to attract, recruit <strong>and</strong> retain top talent, <strong>and</strong><br />

these initiatives will remain a priority over the next decade. Particularly remarkable achievements have been made<br />

in diversifying the mining workforce; however, industry stakeholders will continue, <strong>and</strong> likely intensify these efforts,<br />

to ensure an adequate supply of labour well into the future.<br />

New strategies may emerge to attract <strong>and</strong> recruit top talent <strong>and</strong> ensure that labour shortages do not restrict the mining<br />

sector’s competitiveness <strong>and</strong> ongoing success. In addition, to build the skilled workforce that will meet mining’s long-term<br />

needs, the industry must continue to develop innovative approaches to industry br<strong>and</strong>ing <strong>and</strong> career promotion, <strong>and</strong> to<br />

enhance training <strong>and</strong> education.<br />

Training <strong>and</strong> education efforts will be particularly important. As older workers retire <strong>and</strong> the age gap in the industry<br />

increases, young workers entering the mining workforce may lack some of the experience <strong>and</strong> proficiency of retiring<br />

workers. This new generation of workers may require training, both formal <strong>and</strong> on-the-job. Continued efforts to find<br />

creative ways to bridge the skills gap between new hires <strong>and</strong> retiring experienced workers will help train incoming<br />

workers <strong>and</strong> capture some of the lost knowledge <strong>and</strong> experience as older workers retire.<br />

2010 <strong>Employment</strong> <strong>and</strong> <strong>Hiring</strong> <strong>Forecasts</strong><br />

47


Furthermore, mining industry stakeholders will continue to work toward facilitating mobility of the workforce so that<br />

workers with the required skills can quickly move to fill jobs at new mining projects as they come into production. 30<br />

Efforts to recognize undesignated occupations in the sector will also strengthen the industry’s capacity to meet future<br />

needs, by both ensuring worker mobility <strong>and</strong> attracting young talent.<br />

Increasing Productivity<br />

Specifically, “productivity” refers to how efficiently <strong>and</strong> effectively a company can turn its inputs (e.g. labour <strong>and</strong> capital)<br />

into outputs, such as mining products <strong>and</strong> services. Workplace productivity can be increased through investments in<br />

skilled labour, capital, <strong>and</strong> technological change <strong>and</strong> innovation. For example, productivity may be boosted by ensuring<br />

that workers have the training, tools, <strong>and</strong> equipment required to maximize production. This can be achieved by<br />

organizational investments in professional development, new technology <strong>and</strong> high st<strong>and</strong>ards for upkeep of equipment.<br />

Innovation may also include developing new or improved managerial practices, enhancing working conditions <strong>and</strong><br />

adopting new approaches to work.<br />

In conclusion, human resources form the backbone of an industry-wide strategy for success. There are two broad ways<br />

in which the mining industry can meet future labour requirements: by making the best use of all available sources of<br />

talent, <strong>and</strong> through increases in productivity. Managing <strong>and</strong> growing a well-skilled workforce will help maintain <strong>and</strong><br />

promote Canada’s position in the global mining industry.<br />

30 For more information on <strong>MiHR</strong> initiatives regarding skills, learning, <strong>and</strong> mobility please refer to www.mihr.ca.<br />

48 <strong>Mining</strong> <strong>Industry</strong> Workforce Information Network


Appendix A<br />

This appendix outlines the methodology used to produce forecasts of hiring requirements in the mining industry for each<br />

region in Canada. It also describes the various data that were required, along with the development of the forecasting models.<br />

Forecasting models of employment were estimated based on the following six steps:<br />

Step 1: Collect <strong>and</strong> analyze data that may potentially explain changes in the number of jobs in each region;<br />

Step 2: Determine the driver(s) that explain the greatest level of variation in the number of jobs in each region by<br />

testing various model specifications through regression analysis;<br />

Step 3: Produce baseline, contractionary <strong>and</strong> expansionary forecasts for each driver determined in Step 2;<br />

Step 4: Combine Steps 2 <strong>and</strong> 3 to produce the forecasts for employment in each region under baseline, contractionary<br />

<strong>and</strong> expansionary scenarios;<br />

Step 5: Produce forecasts of the total hiring requirements given the change in employment (determined in Step 4)<br />

<strong>and</strong> estimates of retirement <strong>and</strong> non-retirement separation rates; <strong>and</strong>,<br />

Step 6: Calculate <strong>and</strong> apply occupational coefficients to produce estimates of hiring requirements by occupation.<br />

A flowchart depicting this methodology is provided in Figure A1.<br />

Figure A1<br />

<strong>Employment</strong> <strong>and</strong> <strong>Hiring</strong> Requirements Forecasting Model<br />

STEP 1:<br />

Data collection<br />

STEP 2:<br />

Model development<br />

<strong>and</strong> testing<br />

STEP 3:<br />

Research <strong>and</strong> obtain forecasts<br />

of employment drivers<br />

Collect <strong>and</strong> analyze<br />

potential drivers<br />

of employment<br />

Test various model<br />

specifications <strong>and</strong> choose<br />

model that best explains<br />

variation in employment<br />

Develop forecasts<br />

of employment drivers<br />

for each scenario<br />

STEP 4:<br />

Produce forecasts of<br />

employment, by regions,<br />

by scenario<br />

Age distribution<br />

of mining employees<br />

Retirement age,<br />

by scenario<br />

Non-retirement<br />

separation rate<br />

Changes in employment,<br />

by year, by region,<br />

by scenario<br />

Retirement rate,<br />

by year, by region,<br />

by scenario<br />

STEP 5:<br />

<strong>Hiring</strong> requirement,<br />

by region, by scenario<br />

Occupational<br />

breakdown in mining<br />

industry by region<br />

Inputs<br />

Outputs<br />

STEP 6:<br />

Occupational hiring<br />

requirement forecast,<br />

by region, by scenario<br />

Aggregate <strong>Canadian</strong><br />

hiring requirements<br />

2010 <strong>Employment</strong> <strong>and</strong> <strong>Hiring</strong> <strong>Forecasts</strong><br />

49


Several indicators were considered, based on their potential to explain changes in the level of employment in the mining<br />

industry at the regional level. Time series data was collected <strong>and</strong> plotted with respect to employment. Potential explanatory<br />

variables included:<br />

• Real compensation per hour worked<br />

• Real level of production<br />

• Industrial Materials Commodity Price Index<br />

• Minerals Price Index<br />

• Selected Commodity Price Indices such as gold <strong>and</strong> nickel (among others)<br />

• Labour productivity (real GDP per hour worked)<br />

<strong>Employment</strong> series for the mining industry were obtained from Statistics Canada. 31 Due to confidentiality rules,<br />

employment data is suppressed for various provinces <strong>and</strong> territories <strong>and</strong> was thus available only at higher level<br />

of aggregation. Model development was therefore restricted to the following regions:<br />

• Atlantic<br />

• Quebec<br />

• Ontario<br />

• Prairies<br />

• British Columbia<br />

• Territories<br />

<strong>Employment</strong> series dating back to 1984 were used in the creation of the employment models for the six regions.<br />

Furthermore, suppression of some provincial production data precluded the development of a weighted commodity price<br />

index specific to each region, as originally planned. However, in select cases where it was known that certain commodities<br />

represent a large proportion of the provincial total (for example iron ore in Quebec), individual price indices were used<br />

as explanatory variables. In all other cases, the Bank of Canada’s weighted Minerals Price Index was used. 32<br />

In general, it was found that metal <strong>and</strong> mineral prices in conjunction with labour productivity (to explain longer-term<br />

trends in employment) were the most statistically significant at explaining variations in the mining employment series.<br />

More precisely, the number of mining jobs in each region is strongly related to commodity price levels, labour productivity<br />

levels <strong>and</strong> the previous year’s employment. There is a positive correlation between commodity prices <strong>and</strong> employment,<br />

<strong>and</strong> a negative correlation between labour productivity <strong>and</strong> employment. In other words, when commodity prices rise,<br />

employment levels increase, whereas labour productivity increases lead to a decrease in employment levels. Note that<br />

the previous year’s employment was also positively related to current employment.<br />

31 <strong>Employment</strong> data was obtained through Special Aggregations from Productivity Measures, Income <strong>and</strong> Expenditure Accounts Division, Statistics Canada,<br />

February 2009.<br />

32 The Bank of Canada’s Minerals Price Index includes the following components: gold; silver; nickel; copper; aluminum; zinc; potash; lead; <strong>and</strong> iron.<br />

50 <strong>Mining</strong> <strong>Industry</strong> Workforce Information Network


Appendix B<br />

This Appendix lists the National Occupational Category for Statistics (NOC-S) codes 33 used throughout the report to partly<br />

define the mining industry. <strong>MiHR</strong> is engaged in ongoing, iterative research to include more NOC-S codes in this definition<br />

of the sector in order to better capture Statistics Canada data related to mining.<br />

A111 Financial managers<br />

A112 Human resources managers<br />

A121 Engineering managers<br />

A371 Construction managers<br />

A381 Primary production managers (except agriculture)<br />

B011 Financial auditors <strong>and</strong> accountants<br />

B012 Financial <strong>and</strong> investment analysts<br />

B021 Specialists in human resources<br />

B211 Secretaries (except legal <strong>and</strong> medical)<br />

B541 Administrative clerks<br />

C012 Chemists<br />

C013 Geologists, geochemists <strong>and</strong> geophysicists<br />

C015 Other professional occupations in physical<br />

sciences<br />

C021 Biologists <strong>and</strong> related scientists<br />

C031 Civil engineers<br />

C032 Mechanical engineers<br />

C033 Electrical <strong>and</strong> electronics engineers<br />

C034 Chemical engineers<br />

C041 Industrial <strong>and</strong> manufacturing engineers<br />

C042 Metallurgical <strong>and</strong> materials engineers<br />

C043 <strong>Mining</strong> engineers<br />

C044 Geological engineers<br />

C048 Other professional engineers, n.e.c.<br />

C054 L<strong>and</strong> surveyors<br />

C111 Chemical technologists <strong>and</strong> technicians<br />

C112 Geological <strong>and</strong> mineral technologists <strong>and</strong><br />

technicians<br />

C121 Biological technologists <strong>and</strong> technicians<br />

C131 Civil engineering technologists <strong>and</strong> technicians<br />

C132 Mechanical engineering technologists <strong>and</strong><br />

technicians<br />

C133 Industrial engineering <strong>and</strong> manufacturing<br />

technologists <strong>and</strong> technicians<br />

C134 Construction estimators<br />

C141 Electrical <strong>and</strong> electronics engineering<br />

technologists <strong>and</strong> technicians<br />

C153 Drafting technologists <strong>and</strong> technicians<br />

C154 L<strong>and</strong> survey technologists <strong>and</strong> technicians<br />

C155 Mapping <strong>and</strong> related technologists <strong>and</strong><br />

technicians<br />

G412 Cooks<br />

H111 Plumbers<br />

H112 Steamfitters, pipefitters <strong>and</strong> sprinkler system<br />

installers<br />

H121 Carpenters<br />

H212 Industrial electricians<br />

H326 Welders <strong>and</strong> related machine operators<br />

H411 Construction millwrights <strong>and</strong> industrial mechanics<br />

(except textile)<br />

H412 Heavy-duty equipment mechanics<br />

H611 Heavy equipment operators (except crane)<br />

H622 Drillers <strong>and</strong> blasters — Surface mining, quarrying<br />

<strong>and</strong> construction<br />

H711 Truck drivers<br />

H821 Construction trades helpers <strong>and</strong> labourers<br />

H822 Other trades helpers <strong>and</strong> labourers<br />

I121 Supervisors, mining <strong>and</strong> quarrying<br />

I131<br />

I141<br />

I214<br />

Underground production <strong>and</strong> development miners<br />

Underground mine service <strong>and</strong> support workers<br />

Mine labourers<br />

J011 Supervisors, mineral <strong>and</strong> metal processing<br />

J121 Machine operators, mineral <strong>and</strong> metal processing<br />

J311 Labourers in mineral <strong>and</strong> metal processing<br />

33 A complete list of NOC-S codes can be found on the Statistics Canada website at<br />

www.statcan.gc.ca/subjects-sujets/st<strong>and</strong>ard-norme/soc-cnp/2006/noc2006-cnp2006-menu-eng.htm<br />

2010 <strong>Employment</strong> <strong>and</strong> <strong>Hiring</strong> <strong>Forecasts</strong><br />

51


Notes


www.mihr.ca • www.mininghrforecasts.ca

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