Canadian Mining Industry Employment and Hiring Forecasts - MiHR
Canadian Mining Industry Employment and Hiring Forecasts - MiHR
Canadian Mining Industry Employment and Hiring Forecasts - MiHR
Create successful ePaper yourself
Turn your PDF publications into a flip-book with our unique Google optimized e-Paper software.
<strong>Canadian</strong> <strong>Mining</strong><br />
<strong>Industry</strong> <strong>Employment</strong><br />
<strong>and</strong> <strong>Hiring</strong> <strong>Forecasts</strong><br />
2010<br />
A <strong>Mining</strong> <strong>Industry</strong> Workforce<br />
Information Network Report
This project is funded in part by the Government of Canada’s Sector Council Program.<br />
The opinions <strong>and</strong> interpretations in this publication are those of the author <strong>and</strong> do not necessarily reflect those<br />
of the Government of Canada.<br />
Copyright © 2010 <strong>Mining</strong> <strong>Industry</strong> Human Resources Council (<strong>MiHR</strong>)<br />
All rights reserved. The use of any part of this publication, whether it is reproduced, stored in a retrieval system,<br />
or transmitted in any form or by means (including electronic, mechanical, photographic, photocopying or recording),<br />
without the prior written permission of <strong>MiHR</strong> is an infringement of copyright law.<br />
For more information, contact:<br />
<strong>Mining</strong> <strong>Industry</strong> Human Resources Council<br />
260 Hearst Way, Suite 401<br />
Kanata, Ontario K2L 3H1<br />
Tel: 613 270 9696<br />
Fax: 613 270 9399<br />
Email: research@mihr.ca<br />
Or visit the website at:<br />
www.mininghrforecasts.ca<br />
www.mihr.ca<br />
Published July 2010
Table of Contents<br />
Executive Summary................................................................................................................... 1<br />
<strong>Industry</strong> Context.................................................................................................................................................... 2<br />
The Model for Forecasting <strong>Employment</strong> <strong>and</strong> <strong>Hiring</strong> Requirements..................................................................... 2<br />
National <strong>Forecasts</strong> of <strong>Employment</strong> <strong>and</strong> <strong>Hiring</strong> Requirements............................................................................. 2<br />
Regional <strong>Forecasts</strong> of <strong>Employment</strong> <strong>and</strong> <strong>Hiring</strong> Requirements............................................................................ 3<br />
Occupational <strong>Forecasts</strong> of <strong>Employment</strong> <strong>and</strong> <strong>Hiring</strong> Requirements...................................................................... 5<br />
Addressing the Challenge...................................................................................................................................... 5<br />
1 Introduction......................................................................................................................... 7<br />
Background....................................................................................................................................... 8<br />
Overview of the Report........................................................................................................................ 8<br />
2 Overview of the <strong>Canadian</strong> <strong>Mining</strong> Workforce............................................................................ 9<br />
Definition <strong>and</strong> Economic Overview of the <strong>Canadian</strong> <strong>Mining</strong> <strong>Industry</strong>......................................................... 9<br />
<strong>Industry</strong> Definition <strong>and</strong> Scope............................................................................................................................ 9<br />
Economic Overview......................................................................................................................................... 10<br />
<strong>Mining</strong> Labour Market Trends............................................................................................................ 11<br />
<strong>Employment</strong>.................................................................................................................................................... 12<br />
Labour Productivity.......................................................................................................................................... 13<br />
Educational Attainment.................................................................................................................................... 15<br />
<strong>Employment</strong> Relations..................................................................................................................................... 16<br />
Turnover................................................................................................................................................... 16<br />
Compensation, Wages <strong>and</strong> Hours Worked................................................................................................. 17<br />
Unionization............................................................................................................................................. 19<br />
Use of Contractors.................................................................................................................................... 20<br />
An Aging Workforce.......................................................................................................................... 20<br />
Retirement...................................................................................................................................................... 21<br />
2010 <strong>Employment</strong> <strong>and</strong> <strong>Hiring</strong> <strong>Forecasts</strong><br />
i
Workforce Participation Rates <strong>and</strong> Diversity........................................................................................ 22<br />
Women in <strong>Mining</strong>............................................................................................................................................ 22<br />
Aboriginal Participation in <strong>Mining</strong>..................................................................................................................... 24<br />
New <strong>Canadian</strong>s in <strong>Mining</strong>................................................................................................................................ 25<br />
Summary......................................................................................................................................... 26<br />
3 Forecasted <strong>Hiring</strong> Requirements in the <strong>Canadian</strong> <strong>Mining</strong> <strong>Industry</strong>............................................ 27<br />
Development of the Model................................................................................................................. 27<br />
Assumptions.................................................................................................................................... 28<br />
National <strong>Hiring</strong> Requirements <strong>Forecasts</strong>.............................................................................................. 29<br />
<strong>Forecasts</strong> by Occupation................................................................................................................... 31<br />
Regional <strong>Hiring</strong> Requirements <strong>Forecasts</strong>............................................................................................. 34<br />
Atlantic Region................................................................................................................................................ 35<br />
Quebec............................................................................................................................................................ 37<br />
Ontario............................................................................................................................................................ 39<br />
Prairie Region.................................................................................................................................................. 41<br />
British Columbia.............................................................................................................................................. 43<br />
Territories........................................................................................................................................................ 44<br />
4 Discussion......................................................................................................................... 47<br />
Making the Best Use of All Possible Sources of Talent .......................................................................... 47<br />
Increasing Productivity..................................................................................................................... 48<br />
Appendix A............................................................................................................................................ 49<br />
Appendix B............................................................................................................................................ 51<br />
ii<br />
<strong>Mining</strong> <strong>Industry</strong> Workforce Information Network
List of Tables <strong>and</strong> Figures<br />
Table 1 Total <strong>Hiring</strong> Requirements <strong>Forecasts</strong> – Canada................................................................................................ 3<br />
Table 2 Total <strong>Hiring</strong> Requirements <strong>Forecasts</strong> – By Region............................................................................................ 4<br />
Table 3 Cumulative <strong>Hiring</strong> Requirements <strong>Forecasts</strong> – By Broad Occupational Categories............................................. 5<br />
Table 4 Canada’s Top 10 Minerals by Value of Production, 2008................................................................................ 12<br />
Table 5 Proportion of <strong>Mining</strong> Workforce of Aboriginal Descent.................................................................................... 25<br />
Table 6 Key Forecast Assumptions............................................................................................................................ 28<br />
Table 7 Total <strong>Hiring</strong> Requirements <strong>Forecasts</strong> – Canada.............................................................................................. 30<br />
Table 8 Cumulative <strong>Hiring</strong> Requirements <strong>Forecasts</strong> – Canada.................................................................................... 31<br />
Table 9<br />
Cumulative <strong>Hiring</strong> Requirements – By Broad Occupational Categories<br />
<strong>and</strong> Relevant <strong>Mining</strong> Occupations................................................................................................................. 32<br />
Table 10 Total <strong>Mining</strong> <strong>Employment</strong> by Region.............................................................................................................. 35<br />
Table 11 Cumulative <strong>Hiring</strong> Requirements <strong>Forecasts</strong> – Atlantic Region........................................................................ 36<br />
Table 12 Cumulative <strong>Hiring</strong> Requirements of Top 10 Occupations in Atlantic Region.................................................... 37<br />
Table 13 Cumulative <strong>Hiring</strong> Requirements <strong>Forecasts</strong> – Quebec.................................................................................... 37<br />
Table 14 Cumulative <strong>Hiring</strong> Requirements of Top 10 Occupations in Quebec................................................................ 39<br />
Table 15 Cumulative <strong>Hiring</strong> Requirements <strong>Forecasts</strong> – Ontario.................................................................................... 39<br />
Table 16 Cumulative <strong>Hiring</strong> Requirements of Top 10 Occupations in Ontario................................................................ 40<br />
Table 17 Cumulative <strong>Hiring</strong> Requirements <strong>Forecasts</strong> – Prairie Region.......................................................................... 42<br />
Table 18 Cumulative <strong>Hiring</strong> Requirements of Top 10 Occupations in Prairie Region...................................................... 42<br />
Table 19 Cumulative <strong>Hiring</strong> Requirements <strong>Forecasts</strong> – British Columbia...................................................................... 43<br />
Table 20 Cumulative <strong>Hiring</strong> Requirements of Top 10 Occupations in British Columbia.................................................. 44<br />
Table 21 Cumulative <strong>Hiring</strong> Requirements <strong>Forecasts</strong> – Territories................................................................................ 44<br />
Table 22 Cumulative <strong>Hiring</strong> Requirements of Top 10 Occupations in the Territories...................................................... 45<br />
2010 <strong>Employment</strong> <strong>and</strong> <strong>Hiring</strong> <strong>Forecasts</strong><br />
iii
Figure 1 Value of <strong>Canadian</strong> Mineral Production, 1998–2008...................................................................................... 11<br />
Figure 2 <strong>Mining</strong> <strong>Employment</strong> <strong>and</strong> the Minerals Price Index (MPI)............................................................................... 13<br />
Figure 3 Labour Productivity <strong>and</strong> <strong>Employment</strong>........................................................................................................... 14<br />
Figure 4 Labour Productivity in Canada’s North......................................................................................................... 14<br />
Figure 5 Proportion of <strong>Mining</strong> Workforce by Highest Level of Educational Attainment................................................. 15<br />
Figure 6 Hourly Total Compensation Rates by Region................................................................................................ 17<br />
Figure 7 Average Benchmark Hourly Wages for Select Job Titles in <strong>Mining</strong>, by Commodity Produced........................ 18<br />
Figure 8 Weekly Hours Worked in <strong>Mining</strong>, Canada <strong>and</strong> Regions, 1988–2008............................................................. 18<br />
Figure 9 Unionization Rates: Forestry, Fishing, <strong>Mining</strong>, <strong>and</strong> Oil <strong>and</strong> Gas, 1997 to 2008............................................... 19<br />
Figure 10 Age Group Distribution in <strong>Canadian</strong> <strong>Mining</strong> <strong>Industry</strong> in 2006........................................................................ 21<br />
Figure 11 Proportion of <strong>Mining</strong> Workforce Eligible to Retire......................................................................................... 22<br />
Figure 12 Proportion of Women in Natural Resource Industries.................................................................................... 23<br />
Figure 13 Proportion of Women in Select <strong>Mining</strong> Occupations..................................................................................... 23<br />
Figure 14 Aboriginal Communities <strong>and</strong> Active <strong>Mining</strong> <strong>and</strong> Exploration Sites................................................................. 24<br />
Figure 15 Annual <strong>Hiring</strong> Requirements <strong>Forecasts</strong> – Canada......................................................................................... 30<br />
Figure 16 Total <strong>Hiring</strong> Requirements <strong>Forecasts</strong> – Atlantic Region................................................................................. 36<br />
Figure 17 Total <strong>Hiring</strong> Requirements <strong>Forecasts</strong> – Quebec............................................................................................ 38<br />
Figure 18 Total <strong>Hiring</strong> Requirements <strong>Forecasts</strong> – Ontario............................................................................................. 40<br />
Figure 19 Total <strong>Hiring</strong> Requirements <strong>Forecasts</strong> – Prairie Region.................................................................................. 41<br />
Figure 20 Total <strong>Hiring</strong> Requirements <strong>Forecasts</strong> – British Columbia.............................................................................. 43<br />
Figure 21 Total <strong>Hiring</strong> Requirements <strong>Forecasts</strong> – Territories......................................................................................... 45<br />
Figure A1 <strong>Employment</strong> <strong>and</strong> <strong>Hiring</strong> Requirements Forecasting Model........................................................................... 49<br />
Acknowledgements<br />
The <strong>Mining</strong> <strong>Industry</strong> Human Resources Council (<strong>MiHR</strong>) wishes to convey its appreciation to the organizations that<br />
contributed their knowledge <strong>and</strong> insights to the development of this report. <strong>MiHR</strong> is grateful to all survey respondents<br />
for their valuable input <strong>and</strong> time in filling out the survey.<br />
We thank you, our Board of Directors, industry stakeholders <strong>and</strong> the Government of Canada for your continued guidance<br />
<strong>and</strong> commitment in addressing the mining HR challenge.<br />
iv<br />
<strong>Mining</strong> <strong>Industry</strong> Workforce Information Network
Executive Summary<br />
The <strong>Canadian</strong> mining industry is highly competitive on the world stage <strong>and</strong> has the potential to remain successful well<br />
into the future. Nations in rapid development phases, such as China <strong>and</strong> India, will continue to need the raw resources<br />
that <strong>Canadian</strong> mining companies provide. This potential, however, is threatened by looming labour shortages <strong>and</strong> other<br />
human resources issues facing the sector. Several labour market trends are impacting the availability <strong>and</strong> quality of<br />
labour in mining; most notably the aging workforce, productivity, <strong>and</strong> challenges in attracting new talent to the sector.<br />
A two-faceted approach will have the greatest impact in addressing existing <strong>and</strong> expected human resources shortages:<br />
(i) making the best use of all available sources of labour <strong>and</strong> (ii) increasing productivity. To fill the talent gap, continued<br />
efforts to attract <strong>and</strong> retain youth, women, new <strong>Canadian</strong>s <strong>and</strong> Aboriginal peoples will provide access to previously<br />
untapped sources of talent. In addition, the need to replace retiring workers, combined with a depleted labour pool from<br />
which to draw, will increasingly force the industry to rely on improved productivity to maintain economic performance.<br />
Productivity increases, in turn, will have to come through investments in training <strong>and</strong> education, as well as through<br />
innovation <strong>and</strong> technological advances.<br />
This report provides the foundation for a structured <strong>and</strong> strategic approach to workforce development. The report is<br />
divided into two main sections. The first provides an economic overview <strong>and</strong> examines the labour market trends affecting<br />
the industry. The second presents the forecasted changes in employment <strong>and</strong> hiring requirements at the national,<br />
regional <strong>and</strong> occupational level — over a two-, five-, <strong>and</strong> 10-year horizon. Finally, observations about the forecasts<br />
<strong>and</strong> labour market trends provide insight into proactive ways to address the human resources challenges confronting<br />
the industry.<br />
2010 <strong>Employment</strong> <strong>and</strong> <strong>Hiring</strong> <strong>Forecasts</strong><br />
1
<strong>Industry</strong> Context<br />
Compared with other sectors, employment in mining is highly volatile. Changes in total employment are directly related<br />
to international commodity prices <strong>and</strong> inversely related to gains in productivity. When coupled with a rapidly aging<br />
workforce <strong>and</strong> lack of growth in the <strong>Canadian</strong> labour force, the outlook is grim. The sector will face significant<br />
challenges in the near future in finding the right people to fill vacant positions.<br />
The Model for Forecasting <strong>Employment</strong> <strong>and</strong> <strong>Hiring</strong> Requirements<br />
Model development is an ongoing, iterative process. The current version of the <strong>Mining</strong> <strong>Industry</strong> Human Resources<br />
Council’s (<strong>MiHR</strong>) forecasting model used here represents a culmination of rigorous model development over the past<br />
five years. Detailed discussion of the model <strong>and</strong> its underlying assumptions are included in Chapter 3 <strong>and</strong> Appendix A.<br />
The forecasting model combines changes in employment due to economic factors <strong>and</strong> replacement requirements to<br />
obtain total hiring requirements. Changes in employment reflect fluctuations in commodity prices (based on prevalent<br />
consensus forecasts), gains in productivity, <strong>and</strong> the previous year’s employment. Replacement requirements are based<br />
on retirement rates (calculated based on the age distribution of the workforce <strong>and</strong> assuming an average retirement<br />
age of 59.5 years) <strong>and</strong> non-retirement separation rates.<br />
Three scenarios were developed to forecast national, regional <strong>and</strong> occupational hiring requirements over a 10-year<br />
time horizon. The baseline scenario uses a consensus forecast for the fluctuation of commodity prices <strong>and</strong> productivity<br />
changes. The expansionary scenario assumes greater-than-expected growth in commodity prices <strong>and</strong> productivity,<br />
while the contractionary scenario assumes lower-than-expected growth.<br />
National <strong>Forecasts</strong> of <strong>Employment</strong> <strong>and</strong> <strong>Hiring</strong> Requirements<br />
<strong>Forecasts</strong> for Canada are produced by summing the changes in employment <strong>and</strong> hiring requirement across the six regions<br />
in consideration.<br />
Under the baseline scenario, the <strong>Canadian</strong> mining industry will have to hire 100,000 new workers by the end of 2020<br />
to satisfy replacement needs <strong>and</strong> to fill new positions. If commodity prices perform better than expected (the expansionary<br />
scenario), the cumulative hiring requirements could reach nearly 135,000 workers. Even under the contractionary<br />
scenario, the industry would still need to hire approximately 56,000 workers over the coming decade.<br />
Table 1 shows the cumulative change in employment <strong>and</strong> hiring requirements under the baseline scenario in 2010, 2012,<br />
2015 <strong>and</strong> 2020. As shown, replacement requirement exceeds the change in employment attributable to commodity prices<br />
<strong>and</strong> labour productivity gains to create positive cumulative hiring requirements in the short-, medium- <strong>and</strong> long-term.<br />
2 <strong>Mining</strong> <strong>Industry</strong> Workforce Information Network
Table 1<br />
Total <strong>Hiring</strong> Requirements <strong>Forecasts</strong> – Canada<br />
Baseline Scenario – 2010, 2012, 2015, 2020<br />
REGION<br />
YEAR<br />
CHANGE IN<br />
EMPLOYMENT<br />
REPLACEMENT REQUIREMENTS<br />
RETIREMENT<br />
NON-RETIREMENT<br />
CUMULATIVE<br />
HIRING<br />
REQUIREMENTS<br />
Canada<br />
2010 −1,000 3,710 3,980 6,690<br />
2012 3,400 13,580 12,100 29,080<br />
2015 −3,500 32,600 24,050 53,150<br />
2020 −8,600 65,290 43,300 99,990<br />
Source: <strong>Mining</strong> <strong>Industry</strong> Human Resources Council, Summer 2010.<br />
For Canada as a whole, cumulative hiring requirements represent nearly 50 per cent of the 2009 employment level,<br />
with hiring needs predicted to increase at a pace of two to five per cent annually across the forecast period.<br />
Regional <strong>Forecasts</strong> of <strong>Employment</strong> <strong>and</strong> <strong>Hiring</strong> Requirements<br />
<strong>Employment</strong> <strong>and</strong> hiring requirement forecasts were conducted for six regions:<br />
• Atlantic<br />
• Quebec<br />
• Ontario<br />
• Prairies<br />
• British Columbia<br />
• Territories<br />
Comparisons of hiring requirements between regions should be approached with caution, particularly given that<br />
the various factors influencing the forecast model differ from region to region. In addition, major differences exist in<br />
employment <strong>and</strong> hiring requirements across regions, based on workforce age profiles <strong>and</strong> on forecasts of commodity<br />
prices <strong>and</strong> labour productivity. For these reasons, separate forecasts are produced for each region, with the main<br />
drivers of the hiring requirements discussed in each corresponding section of the report.<br />
As shown in Table 2, cumulative hiring requirements vary significantly among regions. This is partly due to the size of<br />
the existing mining workforce in each region but is also driven by regional variations in age composition. Indeed, efforts<br />
in hiring are heavily dependent not only on regional context but on a wide range of factors.<br />
<strong>Employment</strong> growth differs among regions. In most cases, the hiring requirements are driven by replacement needs.<br />
However, in the Prairies, total employment is predicted to grow over the forecast period. As a result, cumulative hiring<br />
requirements for this region are a result of both growth <strong>and</strong> replacement requirements.<br />
2010 <strong>Employment</strong> <strong>and</strong> <strong>Hiring</strong> <strong>Forecasts</strong><br />
3
Table 2<br />
Total <strong>Hiring</strong> Requirements <strong>Forecasts</strong> – By Region<br />
Baseline Scenario – 2010, 2012, 2015, 2020<br />
REGION<br />
YEAR<br />
CHANGE IN<br />
EMPLOYMENT<br />
REPLACEMENT REQUIREMENTS<br />
RETIREMENT<br />
NON-RETIREMENT<br />
CUMULATIVE<br />
HIRING<br />
REQUIREMENTS<br />
Atlantic<br />
Quebec<br />
Ontario<br />
Prairies<br />
British<br />
Columbia<br />
Territories<br />
2010 −120 220 210 310<br />
2012 −380 770 630 1,020<br />
2015 −1,350 1,750 1,220 1,610<br />
2020 −2,750 3,230 2,070 2,530<br />
2010 −4,280 830 750 −2,700<br />
2012 −2,640 3,180 2,320 2,850<br />
2015 −6,650 7,520 4,510 5,370<br />
2020 −8,060 14,650 7,890 14,450<br />
2010 310 950 880 2,140<br />
2012 −1,790 3,490 2,580 4,280<br />
2015 −4,920 8,430 4,950 8,480<br />
2020 −7,600 16,820 8,650 17,910<br />
2010 2,650 1,130 1,650 5,430<br />
2012 7,210 4,190 5,110 16,500<br />
2015 9,410 10,540 10,460 30,400<br />
2020 10,570 22,190 19,470 52,250<br />
2010 360 520 410 1,290<br />
2012 470 1,720 1,240 3,440<br />
2015 −620 3,810 2,440 5,650<br />
2020 −1,470 7,300 4,340 10,200<br />
2010 260 60 70 390<br />
2012 650 230 230 1,100<br />
2015 730 550 470 1,740<br />
2020 690 1,100 870 2,650<br />
Source: <strong>Mining</strong> <strong>Industry</strong> Human Resources Council, Summer 2010.<br />
The pace of growth in hiring needs also differs among regions. In both the Prairies <strong>and</strong> the Territories, the bulk of hiring<br />
requirements will occur earlier in the forecast period than in the rest of Canada. However, hiring requirements in the<br />
Territories will involve fewer workers, with total requirements of 2,650 people. This is largely because the share of the<br />
mining workforce employed in the Territories is relatively small. The Prairie region is expected to have the largest hiring<br />
requirement in Canada: 52,250 workers by 2020.<br />
4 <strong>Mining</strong> <strong>Industry</strong> Workforce Information Network
Occupational <strong>Forecasts</strong> of <strong>Employment</strong> <strong>and</strong> <strong>Hiring</strong> Requirements<br />
This report also estimates hiring requirements by occupation, both nationally <strong>and</strong> by region. In all regions, the greatest<br />
hiring requirements will occur in Trades <strong>and</strong> Undesignated Occupations, where approximately 31,980 workers will be<br />
needed across Canada. This represents almost a third of the total hiring requirement by 2020. As shown in Table 3,<br />
the other broad occupational categories expected to be in high dem<strong>and</strong> are Supervisors, Coordinators <strong>and</strong> Foremen;<br />
Professional <strong>and</strong> Physical Science Occupations; <strong>and</strong> Technical Occupations.<br />
In terms of specific occupations, hiring requirements are projected to be highest for heavy equipment operators,<br />
truck drivers, <strong>and</strong> underground production <strong>and</strong> development miners.<br />
Table 3<br />
Cumulative <strong>Hiring</strong> Requirements <strong>Forecasts</strong> – By Broad Occupational Categories<br />
Baseline Scenario – 2012, 2015, 2020<br />
2012 2015 2020<br />
Trades <strong>and</strong> Undesignated Occupations 9,165 16,660 31,979<br />
Supervisors, Coordinators <strong>and</strong> Foremen 1,798 3,281 6,258<br />
Professional <strong>and</strong> Physical Science Occupations 1,094 1,989 3,810<br />
Technical Occupations 909 1,657 3,204<br />
Support Workers 835 1,509 2,777<br />
Managers <strong>and</strong>/or Financial Occupations 623 1,136 2,127<br />
Total 14,424 26,233 50,155<br />
Source: <strong>Mining</strong> <strong>Industry</strong> Human Resources Council, Summer 2010.<br />
Note: Total hiring requirements by occupation will not add to the total hiring requirement projected for Canada. This is because of data limitations in defining occupations for<br />
the sector as discussed in Chapter 3.<br />
Addressing the Challenge<br />
The hiring forecasts presented in this report highlight the importance of the significant investment the industry continues<br />
to make to attract <strong>and</strong> retain top talent. Human resources challenges will be the major constraint to economic growth<br />
in Canada’s mining sector. Despite the increasing participation of new <strong>Canadian</strong>s, Aboriginal peoples, women <strong>and</strong> older<br />
workers in the mining workforce, dem<strong>and</strong> for workers will be harder <strong>and</strong> harder to meet — partially due to an aging<br />
workforce <strong>and</strong> partially due to fewer workers being available in the labour force. Economic performance, therefore, will<br />
increasingly have to rely on improved productivity. Clearly, in light of the forecast results presented here, a proactive <strong>and</strong><br />
strategic approach will assist industry employers in planning for future workforce needs.<br />
Broadly speaking, <strong>MiHR</strong> recommends a two-pronged approach. First, employers can continue their efforts to make the<br />
most of all available sources of talent. There are many strategies for this approach, including creating a culture of inclusion<br />
in the workforce, <strong>and</strong> increasing the representation of women, new <strong>Canadian</strong>s <strong>and</strong> Aboriginal peoples. Second, the industry<br />
can increase productivity through investments in workforce training <strong>and</strong> development, combined with emphasis on<br />
innovation <strong>and</strong> support for technology advances.<br />
2010 <strong>Employment</strong> <strong>and</strong> <strong>Hiring</strong> <strong>Forecasts</strong><br />
5
1 Introduction<br />
Canada’s mining industry is world-class, with the value of mineral production in Canada leading the globe. The industry<br />
accounts for 3.5 per cent of GDP, $9.7 billion in capital spending <strong>and</strong> over $95 billion in exports. Canada is the top producer<br />
of uranium <strong>and</strong> potash <strong>and</strong> among the top five producers of nickel, aluminum, zinc <strong>and</strong> molybdenum. 1 Dem<strong>and</strong>s from<br />
nations experiencing rapid growth <strong>and</strong> development, such as India <strong>and</strong> China, ensure a positive economic outlook for the<br />
industry. For example, the rapid pace of growth in China translates into high dem<strong>and</strong> for base metals, potash, uranium<br />
<strong>and</strong> precious metals, for decades to come. However, the <strong>Canadian</strong> mining industry faces many challenges, despite its<br />
world-class status.<br />
Human resources challenges pose a serious threat to Canada’s future mining competitiveness <strong>and</strong> arguably, these challenges<br />
are the greatest constraint to continuous growth in the industry. The <strong>Mining</strong> Association of Canada recently listed human<br />
resources among the top six key issues facing the industry, along with policy <strong>and</strong> regulatory issues, environmental impacts,<br />
declining reserves <strong>and</strong> corporate social responsibility. 2<br />
The challenges stem from an aging population <strong>and</strong> workforce, a poor image of mining among youth, <strong>and</strong> working<br />
conditions <strong>and</strong> cultures that have traditionally discouraged participation of diverse groups such as women <strong>and</strong> new<br />
<strong>Canadian</strong>s. Despite remarkable efforts to increase participation of previously under-represented groups in the industry’s<br />
workforce, it is becoming more difficult for employers to find the highly skilled <strong>and</strong> experienced workers they need.<br />
This is already a primary concern in some segments of the sector <strong>and</strong> the challenge will increase as more experienced<br />
workers retire.<br />
This report provides the foundation for developing new approaches to address human resources challenges <strong>and</strong><br />
supporting continued efforts to (i) make the best use of all available sources of labour <strong>and</strong> (ii) increase productivity.<br />
Current context <strong>and</strong> workforce demographics, including benchmarks on participation rates, diversity, turnover <strong>and</strong><br />
retirement dem<strong>and</strong>s appear in Chapter 2. Regional <strong>and</strong> national forecasts of hiring requirements for the industry as a<br />
whole <strong>and</strong> by occupational groups are presented in Chapter 3. The information contained in this report can be used by<br />
all industry stakeholders, including employers, educators, <strong>and</strong> governments.<br />
1 The <strong>Mining</strong> Association of Canada, “The <strong>Canadian</strong> <strong>Mining</strong> <strong>Industry</strong>: Overview, Issues <strong>and</strong> the Way Forward,” April 2010.<br />
2 ibid. (Indicates “same as the source above.”)<br />
2010 <strong>Employment</strong> <strong>and</strong> <strong>Hiring</strong> <strong>Forecasts</strong><br />
7
Background<br />
A main strategic objective of the <strong>Mining</strong> <strong>Industry</strong> Human Resources Council (<strong>MiHR</strong>) is to increase industry stakeholders’<br />
ability to underst<strong>and</strong>, anticipate <strong>and</strong> plan for labour supply <strong>and</strong> dem<strong>and</strong> requirements. <strong>MiHR</strong> does this by providing<br />
high-quality labour market information; regional <strong>and</strong> occupational hiring forecasts; <strong>and</strong> human resources management<br />
based research. As part of this commitment, the <strong>Mining</strong> <strong>Industry</strong> Workforce Information Network (MIWIN) — the source<br />
of the most extensive research <strong>and</strong> analysis available on Canada’s mining labour market — provides regular forecasts<br />
of hiring needs for the <strong>Canadian</strong> mining industry.<br />
One of MIWIN’s key activities is to produce model-based forecasts of changes in employment <strong>and</strong> hiring requirements.<br />
The purpose of the study reported here is to forecast changes in employment <strong>and</strong> hiring requirements over two, five <strong>and</strong><br />
10 years, with particular emphasis on national, regional <strong>and</strong> occupational dem<strong>and</strong>s. This report exp<strong>and</strong>s on previous<br />
research <strong>and</strong> forecasts (conducted in 2008 <strong>and</strong> 2009) that examined the dynamics of the mining labour markets in<br />
British Columbia, Saskatchewan <strong>and</strong> Ontario.<br />
The forecasts presented in this report analyze three different economic scenarios: contractionary, baseline <strong>and</strong><br />
expansionary. Each scenario generates a projection of changes in employment <strong>and</strong> hiring requirements from<br />
2010 to 2020. This report also presents results from <strong>MiHR</strong>’s 2010 National Employer Survey, which complements the<br />
model-based forecasts <strong>and</strong> provides key demographics from a representative sample of mining industry employers.<br />
To date, the supply side of the labour market <strong>and</strong> speculations on the gap between labour supply <strong>and</strong> dem<strong>and</strong>, are not<br />
explicitly considered in <strong>MiHR</strong> forecasts. However, <strong>MiHR</strong> has begun research to investigate labour supply in the mining<br />
industry. Such ongoing improvements are an integral part of the MIWIN program, <strong>and</strong> labour supply will be included in<br />
future forecast reports.<br />
Overview of the Report<br />
This report is organized into two main sections. It begins with an overview of Canada’s mining industry followed by<br />
national <strong>and</strong> regional forecasts of changes in employment <strong>and</strong> hiring requirements over a two-, five- <strong>and</strong> 10-year horizon.<br />
The forecasts also include estimates of hiring needs for key occupational groups.<br />
Chapter 2 begins with a definition <strong>and</strong> scope of the mining industry, which is used in the subsequent labour market<br />
analyses <strong>and</strong> forecasts. The definition is followed by discussion of labour market trends in terms of employment,<br />
turnover, productivity, educational attainment, the aging workforce, <strong>and</strong> diversity. Results from <strong>MiHR</strong>’s 2010 National<br />
Employer Survey, along with other industry research, illustrate the trends throughout the section. The report also<br />
discusses issues related to a tight labour market <strong>and</strong> making the best use of all possible sources of labour. This<br />
section sets the stage <strong>and</strong> describes the context for the forecasts that follow.<br />
Chapter 3 begins with a brief review of the key assumptions adopted to produce forecasts of total employment <strong>and</strong><br />
hiring requirements under contractionary, baseline <strong>and</strong> expansionary scenarios. The review is followed with forecasts<br />
of hiring requirements both on a national <strong>and</strong> regional basis, as well as occupational breakdowns. Appendix A provides<br />
details on forecast methodology.<br />
The report concludes with a high-level discussion of the findings (Chapter 4) <strong>and</strong> offers some suggestions for future<br />
directions in meeting the industry’s workforce needs. <strong>MiHR</strong>’s recommended approach to addressing current <strong>and</strong> existing<br />
human resources challenges in the industry is used as a framework for the discussion.<br />
8 <strong>Mining</strong> <strong>Industry</strong> Workforce Information Network
2 Overview of the <strong>Canadian</strong> <strong>Mining</strong> Workforce<br />
The <strong>Canadian</strong> mining industry faces several labour-market challenges. Despite impressive increases in the participation<br />
of under-represented groups, employers are still faced with an aging workforce <strong>and</strong> a looming labour shortage.<br />
To proactively address these challenges <strong>and</strong> meet future hiring requirements, the industry must first maximize <strong>and</strong><br />
make the best use of all available sources of labour, <strong>and</strong> second, increase its productivity through investments in training<br />
<strong>and</strong> skills development, coupled with improving the foundation for innovation <strong>and</strong> technological advances. A first step<br />
in developing these strategies is to review the current context <strong>and</strong> demographic profile of the industry’s workforce.<br />
This chapter begins with a brief definition <strong>and</strong> overview of economic conditions in Canada’s mining industry. The chapter<br />
then explores various labour market trends that impact on the quantity <strong>and</strong> quality of labour, including employment,<br />
turnover, productivity, educational attainment, compensation, labour relations, retirement projections <strong>and</strong> diversity.<br />
Findings from <strong>MiHR</strong>’s 2010 National Employer Survey are also presented throughout, along with other industry research<br />
that illustrates the issues discussed.<br />
Definition <strong>and</strong> Economic Overview of the <strong>Canadian</strong> <strong>Mining</strong> <strong>Industry</strong><br />
<strong>Industry</strong> Definition <strong>and</strong> Scope<br />
Statistics Canada, the main source of Canada’s labour market information, uses two different coding systems to classify<br />
data: the North American <strong>Industry</strong> Classification System (NAICS) <strong>and</strong> the National Occupational Classification for Statistics<br />
(NOC-S). Both systems provide a hierarchical structure that divides higher-level categories into more detailed categories<br />
in order to group similar establishments <strong>and</strong> individuals.<br />
NAICS 3 codes are used by statistical agencies throughout North America to describe economic <strong>and</strong> business activity<br />
at the industry level. This system features a production-oriented framework where assignment to a specific industry<br />
is based on primary activity, enabling groupings of establishments with similar activities.<br />
3 The definitions for the North American Industrial Classification System (2007) are taken from:<br />
http://stds.statcan.gc.ca/naics-scian/2007/cs-rc-eng.asp?criteria=212<br />
2010 <strong>Employment</strong> <strong>and</strong> <strong>Hiring</strong> <strong>Forecasts</strong><br />
9
The NOC-S system 4 was developed by Statistics Canada <strong>and</strong> Human Resources <strong>and</strong> Skills Development Canada<br />
to provide st<strong>and</strong>ardized descriptions of the work that <strong>Canadian</strong>s perform in the labour market. NOC-S codes organize<br />
labour-force participants according to the nature of work they perform, thereby enabling similar occupations to be<br />
grouped. NOC-S codes are specific to Canada. Together, the NAICS <strong>and</strong> NOC-S systems provide a means for grouping<br />
statistics to obtain estimates of employment <strong>and</strong> workforce demographics using Statistics Canada data sources.<br />
There is no single NAICS code, however, that directly corresponds to all phases of the mining cycle (which includes<br />
exploration, development, extraction, processing <strong>and</strong> reclamation). Similarly, there is no single set of NOC-S categories<br />
that pertain to only mining. People employed in occupation groups that are prevalent in mining also work in a variety<br />
of other industries. A complete list of the NOC-S codes used to define the occupations in mining appears in Appendix B.<br />
To provide the best possible estimate of the industry, <strong>MiHR</strong> has defined the sector according to the following NAICS<br />
codes, thereby providing the best correspondence between the industry’s main primary <strong>and</strong> processing activities as<br />
defined by Natural Resources Canada. 5 The NAICS codes that define the mining industry include:<br />
• NAICS 212: <strong>Mining</strong> <strong>and</strong> Quarrying (except Oil <strong>and</strong> Gas). This subsector comprises establishments primarily engaged<br />
in mining, beneficiating or otherwise preparing metallic <strong>and</strong> non-metallic minerals, including coal.<br />
• NAICS 213: Support Activities for <strong>Mining</strong> <strong>and</strong> Oil <strong>and</strong> Gas Extraction. This subsector comprises establishments<br />
primarily engaged in providing support services, on a contract or fee basis, required for the mining <strong>and</strong> quarrying of<br />
minerals <strong>and</strong> for the extraction of oil <strong>and</strong> gas. Establishments engaged in the exploration for minerals, other than<br />
oil or gas, are included. 6<br />
• NAICS 3311: Iron <strong>and</strong> Steel Mills <strong>and</strong> Ferro-Alloy Manufacturing. This industry group comprises establishments<br />
primarily engaged in smelting iron ore <strong>and</strong> steel scrap to produce pig iron in molten or solid form.<br />
• NAICS 3313: Alumina <strong>and</strong> Aluminum Production <strong>and</strong> Processing. This industry group comprises establishments<br />
primarily engaged in extracting alumina.<br />
• NAICS 3314: Non-Ferrous Metal (except Aluminum) Production <strong>and</strong> Processing. This industry group comprises<br />
establishments primarily engaged in smelting, refining, rolling, drawing, extruding <strong>and</strong> alloying non-ferrous metal<br />
(except aluminum).<br />
Economic Overview<br />
The mining industry experienced strong economic growth for almost a decade leading up to the sharp decline in the fall<br />
of 2008. However, rebound from the recession is already underway in the sector, largely due to the impacts of non-metal<br />
commodities <strong>and</strong> dem<strong>and</strong> for resources from BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, <strong>and</strong> China) nations.<br />
4 The definitions for the NOC-S (2006) system can be found at:<br />
www.statcan.gc.ca/subjects-sujets/st<strong>and</strong>ard-norme/soc-cnp/2006/noc2006-cnp2006-menu-eng.htm<br />
5 Natural Resources Canada, <strong>Canadian</strong> Minerals Yearbook, 2008.<br />
6 Note that <strong>MiHR</strong>’s definition of the mining industry does not include oil <strong>and</strong> gas extraction or the activities related to oil s<strong>and</strong>s extraction. However,<br />
data included in NAICS 213 is not available for the mining industry in isolation <strong>and</strong> does include some support services activities for oil <strong>and</strong> gas <strong>and</strong><br />
the oil s<strong>and</strong>s.<br />
10 <strong>Mining</strong> <strong>Industry</strong> Workforce Information Network
The value of mineral production in Canada continues to lead the world with a total value of $45.3 billion in 2008<br />
(see Figure 1). Recent declines in metal prices were largely offset by strong non-metal prices, most notably potash.<br />
In addition, Canada now ranks third internationally in terms of diamond production, accounting for about 13 per cent<br />
of world production. 7 Furthermore, in 2008, a rise in the contract price of coal led to a significant increase in the<br />
value of coal production.<br />
Figure 1<br />
Value of <strong>Canadian</strong> Mineral Production, 1998–2008*<br />
30<br />
25<br />
20<br />
Metals<br />
Non-Metals<br />
Coal<br />
$ Billions<br />
15<br />
10<br />
5<br />
0<br />
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008*<br />
Total: 18.7 18.5 19.8 19.6 20.0 20.1 24.4 28.3 34.2 40.5 45.3<br />
Source: <strong>Mining</strong> Association of Canada, Facts <strong>and</strong> Figures, 2009.<br />
*Data reported for 2008 are preliminary estimates. Facts <strong>and</strong> Figures, 2010 was not available at the time of publication.<br />
Controlling for price effects, increases in real mining gross domestic product (GDP) have exp<strong>and</strong>ed at an historical<br />
average rate of 2.3 per cent. Over the past 25 years, the mining industry contribution to Canada’s GDP has remained<br />
relatively stable at an average of 2 per cent over the entire 1984–2008 period. Today, mining accounts for 3.5 per cent<br />
of Canada’s GDP.<br />
Canada’s top 10 minerals by value of production are shown in Table 4. Of these, Canada is the world leader in the<br />
production of potash <strong>and</strong> uranium, <strong>and</strong> ranks second in nickel production. Historically, the top three mineral-producing<br />
provinces in Canada have been Ontario, Quebec <strong>and</strong> British Columbia. More recently, however, Saskatchewan has taken<br />
over the top position, due to strong potash prices in 2008.<br />
<strong>Mining</strong> Labour Market Trends<br />
According to Statistics Canada’s recent population projections, within the next 10 years Canada will have more people<br />
at the age where they can leave the labour force than at the age where they can begin working. 8 In fact, exits of older<br />
workers from the labour force will start to accelerate in 2011, as the first waves of the Baby Boom generation begin<br />
reaching retirement age.<br />
7 <strong>Mining</strong> Association of Canada, Facts <strong>and</strong> Figures 2009, A Report on the State of the <strong>Mining</strong> <strong>Industry</strong>.<br />
8 Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey.<br />
2010 <strong>Employment</strong> <strong>and</strong> <strong>Hiring</strong> <strong>Forecasts</strong><br />
11
Table 4<br />
Canada’s Top 10 Minerals by Value of Production, 2008*<br />
UNIT<br />
QUANTITY<br />
(MILLIONS)<br />
$ VALUE<br />
(MILLIONS)<br />
Potash t 11 8,243<br />
Nickel kg 251 5,856<br />
Copper kg 581 4,438<br />
Coal t 68 4,292<br />
Gold g 95 2,824<br />
Iron Ore t 31 2,427<br />
Diamonds ct 15 2,404<br />
Sulphur t 8 2,389<br />
Cement t 14 1,792<br />
Uranium kg 9 1,488<br />
Source: <strong>Mining</strong> Association of Canada, Facts <strong>and</strong> Figures, 2009<br />
* Data reported for 2008 are preliminary estimates.<br />
The aging labour force presents considerable challenges for <strong>Canadian</strong> employers, <strong>and</strong> the mining industry is no exception.<br />
To ensure that the necessary workers are available in the short- <strong>and</strong> long-term, mining employers are striving to attract<br />
groups that have been traditionally under-represented in the mining workforce, <strong>and</strong> to make the most of all available<br />
talent in the general labour force. These groups include new <strong>Canadian</strong>s, Aboriginal peoples, youth <strong>and</strong> women.<br />
However, increasing the participation of under-represented groups will only partially manage the impacts of the aging<br />
workforce. Within a few years, the need to replace older workers will quickly surpass the availability of younger talent<br />
in the labour pool. Consequently, maintaining economic performance will also rely on improved productivity.<br />
This section provides an overview of mining employment, productivity, educational attainment, <strong>and</strong> key aspects of<br />
employment relations. Issues pertaining to the aging workforce <strong>and</strong> diversity are of primary importance to the long-term<br />
success of the sector <strong>and</strong> are each discussed in their own sections.<br />
<strong>Employment</strong><br />
<strong>Employment</strong> in mining is more volatile than in most other <strong>Canadian</strong> industries, making long-term workforce planning<br />
a particular challenge in the sector. <strong>Mining</strong> sector employment has been on a slight downward trend for the past<br />
few decades. <strong>Employment</strong> was just over 200,000 workers in both 2007 <strong>and</strong> 2008 — slightly lower than the peak<br />
of 210,000 workers in 1984.<br />
<strong>MiHR</strong>’s recent research has demonstrated a strong positive correlation between employment <strong>and</strong> movements in<br />
commodity prices, as measured against the Minerals Price Index (MPI). The relationship is shown in Figure 2 <strong>and</strong> is<br />
a fundamental assumption in <strong>MiHR</strong>’s employment forecasting model.<br />
Forecasted movements in commodity prices are one of the key explanatory variables in the development of the<br />
forecasting models for hiring requirements discussed in Chapter 3. Please see Appendix A for more details.<br />
12 <strong>Mining</strong> <strong>Industry</strong> Workforce Information Network
Figure 2<br />
<strong>Mining</strong> <strong>Employment</strong> <strong>and</strong> the Minerals Price Index (MPI)<br />
220,000<br />
210,000<br />
Linear employment trend<br />
during 1984 to 2002<br />
400<br />
350<br />
200,000<br />
190,000<br />
180,000<br />
170,000<br />
160,000<br />
<strong>Employment</strong> increase<br />
corresponds to MPI gains<br />
300<br />
250<br />
200<br />
150<br />
100<br />
50<br />
150,000<br />
1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008<br />
<strong>Employment</strong> Canada<br />
MPI<br />
0<br />
Sources: <strong>Mining</strong> <strong>Industry</strong> Human Resources Council; Statistics Canada; Bank of Canada.<br />
Labour Productivity<br />
Labour productivity is a complex concept that is influenced by many factors. On the whole, productivity tends to<br />
accelerate during periods of economic expansion <strong>and</strong> slow during a recession. In terms of employment, higher levels<br />
of productivity tend to be associated with contractions in employment needs. Declines in productivity tend to occur in a<br />
tight labour market. One explanation for this is that as talent becomes scarce, employers may begin to hire workers who<br />
have less experience <strong>and</strong> fewer skills, or are not quite ready to enter the workforce.<br />
Figure 3 shows that labour productivity in the <strong>Canadian</strong> mining industry (measured as real GDP per hour worked) steadily<br />
increased over the 1984 to 2005 period, at an average rate of 2.9 per cent 9 annually. Since 2006, however, productivity<br />
has declined by approximately four per cent per year. A study released in September 2009 by the Centre for the Study<br />
of Living St<strong>and</strong>ards (CSLS) suggested that this decline was not necessarily related to changes in worker skills or<br />
technology <strong>and</strong> innovation; 10 rather, it may have been a direct result of higher commodity prices, which, in turn, made<br />
exploitation of marginal resource deposits profitable.<br />
Diamond mining expansion in the Territories has had a positive impact on overall productivity in the sector, as shown<br />
in Figure 4. Since the opening of the Ekati mine in the fall of 1998, labour productivity has increased at a compounded<br />
annual growth rate of 22 per cent. During this period, the Territories’ share of mining GDP has also increased rapidly:<br />
from 0.5 per cent in 1998 to over four per cent in 2008.<br />
9 This is considered to be a reasonable estimate of trends in labour productivity for the sector. It is based on more than 20 years of data, covering several<br />
business cycles.<br />
10 Centre for the Study of Livings St<strong>and</strong>ards, A Detailed Analysis of the Productivity Performance of <strong>Mining</strong> in Canada, September 2009.<br />
2010 <strong>Employment</strong> <strong>and</strong> <strong>Hiring</strong> <strong>Forecasts</strong><br />
13
Figure 3<br />
Labour Productivity <strong>and</strong> <strong>Employment</strong><br />
220<br />
75.0<br />
<strong>Employment</strong> (000s)<br />
210<br />
200<br />
190<br />
180<br />
170<br />
160<br />
Productivity reductions<br />
correspond with significant<br />
employment gains<br />
70.0<br />
65.0<br />
60.0<br />
55.0<br />
50.0<br />
45.0<br />
40.0<br />
35.0<br />
GDP per Hour Worked (Thous<strong>and</strong>s of 2002 $)<br />
150<br />
1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008<br />
<strong>Employment</strong><br />
Productivity<br />
30.0<br />
Source: <strong>Mining</strong> <strong>Industry</strong> Human Resources Council; Statistics Canada.<br />
Regional differences in productivity such as this are captured in the employment forecasts presented in Chapter 4.<br />
The forecasts of changes in employment presented in this report are based on the combined forces of commodity prices<br />
<strong>and</strong> forecasted trends in labour productivity. This issue is discussed in more detail in Appendix A.<br />
Figure 4<br />
Labour Productivity in Canada’s North<br />
250<br />
GDP per Hour Worked<br />
(Thous<strong>and</strong>s of 2002 $)<br />
200<br />
150<br />
100<br />
50<br />
Opening of Ekati Mine<br />
Opening of Diavik Mine<br />
0<br />
1984 1988<br />
1992 1996 2000 2004 2008<br />
Territories<br />
Rest of Canada<br />
Source: <strong>Mining</strong> <strong>Industry</strong> Human Resources Council; Statistics Canada.<br />
14 <strong>Mining</strong> <strong>Industry</strong> Workforce Information Network
Educational Attainment<br />
The dem<strong>and</strong> for more <strong>and</strong> better skills in the mining industry has increased, in part, in response to technological advances.<br />
However, when compared with the <strong>Canadian</strong> labour force in general, the 2006 Census data indicates that the mining<br />
workforce has mixed levels of educational attainment. As shown in Figure 5, a lower proportion of mining workers have a<br />
university level education (11 per cent compared with 22 per cent for the <strong>Canadian</strong> labour force). That said, in the mining<br />
occupations where a university education is likely required (e.g., engineering, geosciences <strong>and</strong> management positions),<br />
a higher proportion of the workforce has university degrees than in other industries.<br />
A source of skilled labour in the industry is apprenticeship programs. In most provinces, registered apprenticeship<br />
combines practical on-the-job training with in-school technical training. Depending on the trade or occupation, programs<br />
vary in duration from two to five years.<br />
At 21 per cent, the proportion of workers with an apprenticeship or trades certificate is significantly higher in the<br />
mining industry than it is for the <strong>Canadian</strong> labour force as a whole (at 12 per cent). This suggests that apprenticeship<br />
<strong>and</strong> trades‐training are key elements of workforce development in the sector, but there may be barriers to inclusion of<br />
Figure 5<br />
Proportion of <strong>Mining</strong> Workforce by Highest Level of Educational Attainment<br />
30%<br />
25%<br />
<strong>Mining</strong> <strong>Industry</strong><br />
<strong>Canadian</strong> Labour Force<br />
20%<br />
15%<br />
10%<br />
5%<br />
0%<br />
No certificate,<br />
diploma or degree<br />
High school graduation<br />
certificate or equivalent<br />
Apprenticeship or trades<br />
certificate or diploma<br />
College, CEGEP,<br />
or other non-university<br />
certificate or diploma<br />
University certificate<br />
or diploma below<br />
the bachelor level<br />
University certificate,<br />
diploma or degree<br />
Source: <strong>Mining</strong> <strong>Industry</strong> Human Resources Council; Statistics Canada, 2006 Census.<br />
2010 <strong>Employment</strong> <strong>and</strong> <strong>Hiring</strong> <strong>Forecasts</strong><br />
15
under-represented groups. As noted earlier, specific training programs that address barriers to the entry of underrepresented<br />
population groups such as new <strong>Canadian</strong>s, Aboriginal peoples <strong>and</strong> women are a priority for industry<br />
employers. In addition, investments in foreign credential recognition programs may help to remove barriers for<br />
recent immigrants.<br />
<strong>Employment</strong> Relations<br />
The relationship between the workforce <strong>and</strong> their employers is an important element in attracting <strong>and</strong> retaining talent.<br />
This section presents overviews of four main factors affecting employment relationships in mining, including turnover,<br />
wages <strong>and</strong> hours, unionization, <strong>and</strong> use of contractors.<br />
Turnover<br />
Tight labour market conditions <strong>and</strong> widespread labour shortages have historically been associated with higher employee<br />
turnover rates. As talent becomes scarce, competing employers or industries make more attractive offers <strong>and</strong> the best<br />
<strong>and</strong> brightest tend to become more mobile. Turnover in an organization does not translate directly to industry turnover,<br />
because workers leaving a particular employer do not necessarily leave the sector. Competition for talent between industry<br />
sectors in a tight labour market can create pressures on the sector to retain talent <strong>and</strong> lead to a base-level industry turnover<br />
rate. <strong>MiHR</strong>’s employment forecast model assumes a base-level industry turnover rate not related to retirement, of about<br />
two per cent per year, which is often lower than average employer- or region-specific turnover rates.<br />
According to <strong>MiHR</strong>’s 2010 National Employer Survey, the average overall turnover rate for employers is approximately<br />
5.6 per cent. Trades <strong>and</strong> Undesignated Occupations had higher overall turnover rates than other occupations, with<br />
an average of 8.3 per cent, <strong>and</strong> in some cases, as high as 25 per cent.<br />
The voluntary <strong>and</strong> overall turnover rates reported by survey respondents are indicative of a tightening labour market <strong>and</strong><br />
do not include lay-offs <strong>and</strong> call-backs resulting from the recent economic recession. These rates provide an indication<br />
of the churn felt by employers, over <strong>and</strong> above the base-level industry turnover rates used in the forecasting model.<br />
The greatest level of churn is felt in Trades <strong>and</strong> Undesignated Occupations, as well as in Support Workers occupations.<br />
Voluntary turnover 11 among these groups was identified as a primary concern for employers. More than 75 per cent<br />
of respondents reported that voluntary turnover of workers in Trades <strong>and</strong> Undesignated Occupations has impeded<br />
productivity to a great extent over the past two years. In the same period, all survey respondents reported that voluntary<br />
turnover among support workers has impeded productivity to a significant degree. In addition, support services <strong>and</strong><br />
exploration employers reported higher voluntary turnover rates in Professional <strong>and</strong> Management occupations than<br />
other mining employers.<br />
11 Note that voluntary turnover rate is a measure of employee-initiated departures. This is not to be confused with the “non-retirement” departure rates used<br />
in <strong>MiHR</strong>’s employment forecasting model. Non-retirement departures include all turnover not related to retirement <strong>and</strong> can include both voluntary <strong>and</strong><br />
involuntary turnover.<br />
16 <strong>Mining</strong> <strong>Industry</strong> Workforce Information Network
Compensation, Wages <strong>and</strong> Hours Worked<br />
Compensation, wages <strong>and</strong> hours worked are indicators of labour force strength <strong>and</strong> labour-supply preferences.<br />
Sectors offering higher wages for fewer hours worked tend to be attractive employment options.<br />
Significant variations exist between regions with respect to total compensation. The data displayed in Figure 6 shows<br />
total compensation (wages <strong>and</strong> salaries, overtime, bonuses, <strong>and</strong> benefits) in mining as an hourly rate. Workers in<br />
the northern areas of Canada are compensated above the national average, perhaps for extreme conditions, <strong>and</strong><br />
compensation in Atlantic Canada is approximately 80 per cent of the national average.<br />
Further, Statistics Canada’s Labour Force Survey provides monthly <strong>and</strong> annual statistics on wages <strong>and</strong> hours worked.<br />
Over the past 25 years in Canada, nominal wage increases have averaged 3.5 per cent annually, while real wages<br />
increased an average of 0.9 per cent. In contrast, over this period, workers in the mining industry have seen their<br />
real wages rise by approximately 20 per cent.<br />
CostMine, in their annual report, <strong>Canadian</strong> Mine Salary Wages <strong>and</strong> Benefits, provide benchmark average hourly wages<br />
for selected job titles by region, commodity, <strong>and</strong> unionization. The benchmarks by commodity are displayed in Figure 7.<br />
Overall, Diamond <strong>and</strong> Industrial Mineral mining companies pay higher wages than Metal mining companies. This may<br />
be, in part, due to regional differences in compensation as discussed above. Fossil Fuel companies refer to those<br />
operating in the oil s<strong>and</strong>s. In some cases these companies offer higher average wages than other mining companies<br />
(e.g., for surface labourers), but in other cases they do not (e.g., for dragline/shovel operators).<br />
At the same time that wages are rising, weekly hours worked per employee have also increased. Figure 8, which reports<br />
on weekly hours worked in 10-year increments, shows that these hours have risen, on average, by eight per cent over<br />
the past 20 years — with the largest increases in the Territories at 11.5 per cent. This is perhaps due to the expansion<br />
of diamond mining <strong>and</strong> the industry’s goal of minimizing labour transportation costs relative to hours worked.<br />
Figure 6<br />
Hourly Total Compensation Rates by Region<br />
$60.00<br />
$50.00<br />
$40.00<br />
<strong>Canadian</strong> Average for <strong>Mining</strong><br />
$40.42 per hour<br />
$30.00<br />
$20.00<br />
$10.00<br />
$0.00<br />
Atlantic<br />
Quebec<br />
Ontario<br />
Prairies<br />
British Columbia<br />
Territories<br />
Source: <strong>Mining</strong> <strong>Industry</strong> Human Resources Council; Statistics Canada, Special Aggregations from Productivity Measures, Income <strong>and</strong> Expenditure Accounts Division, February 2009.<br />
2010 <strong>Employment</strong> <strong>and</strong> <strong>Hiring</strong> <strong>Forecasts</strong><br />
17
Figure 7<br />
Average Benchmark Hourly Wages for Select Job Titles in <strong>Mining</strong>, by Commodity Produced<br />
$40<br />
Fossil Fuels Diamond/Industrial Mineral Metal<br />
$35<br />
$30<br />
$25<br />
$20<br />
Surface Labourer<br />
Underground<br />
Labourer<br />
Mill Equipment<br />
Operator<br />
Underground<br />
Equipment Operator<br />
Truck Driver<br />
Underground Driller<br />
Surface Driller<br />
Heavy Equipment<br />
Operator-Surface<br />
Dragline/Shovel<br />
Operator<br />
Mechanic<br />
Electrician<br />
Source: <strong>Mining</strong> <strong>Industry</strong> Human Resources Council; CostMine: <strong>Canadian</strong> Mine Salaries, Wages & Benefits, 2009 Survey Results.<br />
Figure 8<br />
Weekly Hours Worked in <strong>Mining</strong>, Canada <strong>and</strong> Regions, 1988–2008<br />
55.0<br />
50.0<br />
1988 1998 2008<br />
45.0<br />
40.0<br />
35.0<br />
30.0<br />
Canada Atlantic Quebec Ontario Prairies British<br />
Columbia<br />
Territories<br />
Source: <strong>Mining</strong> <strong>Industry</strong> Human Resources Council; Statistics Canada, Special Aggregations from Productivity Measures, Income <strong>and</strong> Expenditure Accounts Division, February 2009.<br />
18 <strong>Mining</strong> <strong>Industry</strong> Workforce Information Network
Unionization<br />
Unionization rates among labour force participants are a factor in wage <strong>and</strong> pension coverage <strong>and</strong> partly responsible<br />
for wage gaps in the labour force. 12 Changes in unionization rates have contributed to closing the wage gap for women<br />
(unionization rates between men <strong>and</strong> women have converged over the past few decades) <strong>and</strong> a widening of the gap<br />
for young men (unionization rates for younger workers have diverged from older workers over the decades).<br />
Unionization rates across Canada declined between 1984 <strong>and</strong> 2004, falling from 38 per cent to 31 per cent. Since that<br />
period, unionization rates in the labour force have remained steady at 31 per cent. 13 Decreasing rates of unionization<br />
have affected some groups in the labour force more than others. For example, the decline was twice as large among<br />
men younger than 45 years of age (with a drop of 15 per cent).<br />
Figure 9 shows that, in mining <strong>and</strong> related resource sectors, unionization rates have dropped over the past 25 years<br />
from 48 per cent in 1984 to 24 per cent in 2009, 14 with the largest declines occurring prior to 1998. These reductions<br />
may be partly due to the emergence of alternative opportunities for employee participation in decision making (e.g., joint<br />
labour-management initiatives) or changes in employment composition in the sector. 15<br />
Figure 9<br />
Unionization Rates: Forestry, Fishing, <strong>Mining</strong>, <strong>and</strong> Oil <strong>and</strong> Gas, 1997 to 2008<br />
34%<br />
32%<br />
30%<br />
28%<br />
26%<br />
24%<br />
22%<br />
20%<br />
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008<br />
Source: <strong>Mining</strong> <strong>Industry</strong> Human Resources Council; Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey.<br />
12 Statistics Canada, Perspectives on Labour <strong>and</strong> Income, 2005, Volume 6, Number 4.<br />
13 Statistics Canada, 2009 Labour Force Historical Review.<br />
14 ibid.<br />
15 Statistics Canada, Perspectives on Labour <strong>and</strong> Income, 2005, Volume 6, Number 4.<br />
2010 <strong>Employment</strong> <strong>and</strong> <strong>Hiring</strong> <strong>Forecasts</strong><br />
19
Results from <strong>MiHR</strong>’s 2010 National Employer Survey showed that one third of respondents do not have any unionized<br />
employees. However, at most sites where organized labour is present, over half of the workers are union members.<br />
Of the employers with unionized employees, half reported that 51–75 per cent of their workforce is unionized, <strong>and</strong> over<br />
a quarter reported that more than 75 per cent of their workforce is unionized.<br />
Use of Contractors<br />
As unionization rates fall in the mining industry, the use of contractors is on the rise. <strong>MiHR</strong>’s employer survey showed<br />
that, on average, 13 per cent of respondents’ workforces are comprised of independent contractors. However, respondents<br />
also reported contracting out some activities more than others. For example, the majority of respondents contract out<br />
drilling <strong>and</strong> blasting, boring, <strong>and</strong> tunnelling activities. Education <strong>and</strong> training activities were also commonly contracted<br />
out, as were transportation, material-moving, <strong>and</strong> heavy equipment operators <strong>and</strong> mechanic activities.<br />
An Aging Workforce<br />
The two main factors behind Canada’s aging population are the nation’s low fertility rate <strong>and</strong> increasing life expectancy.<br />
In general, aging contributes to slower labour-force growth because participation rates for older age groups in the<br />
population are significantly lower than for younger groups. What is more, the <strong>Canadian</strong> labour force is aging in<br />
conjunction with the population demographics; there will be more older workers leaving the labour force over the next<br />
10 years than younger workers available to replace them.<br />
According to a recent survey from the Conference Board of Canada, <strong>Canadian</strong> employers from a broad cross-section of<br />
regions <strong>and</strong> industry categories placed the aging workforce among their top priorities over the next five years. 16 The loss<br />
of experienced workers <strong>and</strong> corporate knowledge was a primary concern, as were gaps in management <strong>and</strong> leadership.<br />
Inexperienced, younger individuals without the depth of knowledge that comes from years of experience may get moved<br />
up the supervisory <strong>and</strong> management ladder before they are ready, which could be detrimental to the entire organization.<br />
Such acceleration also poses health <strong>and</strong> safety risks that are of concern to employers. 17<br />
The mining industry clearly recognizes that mature workers play an essential role in transferring knowledge <strong>and</strong> skills<br />
to younger industry workers. Employers’ efforts to increase mature workers’ participation rates include: altering pension<br />
<strong>and</strong> retirement benefits to reward extra time on the job; enhancing working conditions (including hours <strong>and</strong> vacation<br />
allotments); <strong>and</strong> adding medical <strong>and</strong> other benefits to address the needs of the older workforce.<br />
Figure 10 shows that the largest age group in the mining industry is 45–54 years old, representing almost 30 per cent of<br />
the workforce. This is significantly higher than the 25 per cent proportion for this age group across all industries in Canada.<br />
Respondents to <strong>MiHR</strong>’s 2010 National Employer Survey indicated that, on average, more than half of their workers<br />
are aged 45 or older, with the highest average proportion aged 45 to 54 years. In most cases, around 25 per cent of<br />
the workers are less than 35 years of age, with less than five per cent aged 15–24. The youngest reported average<br />
ages were for technical occupations (39 years), <strong>and</strong> professional <strong>and</strong> physical scientists (41.6 years). Supervisors <strong>and</strong><br />
foremen had the oldest average ages at 48 years.<br />
16 Harnessing the Power: Recruiting, Engaging, <strong>and</strong> Retaining Mature Workers, The Conference Board of Canada, October 2008.<br />
17 Many organizations have succession management programs in place to stream high-potential, younger workers for these roles. For more information, see<br />
the <strong>MiHR</strong> <strong>Mining</strong> for Diversity report <strong>and</strong> toolkit.<br />
20 <strong>Mining</strong> <strong>Industry</strong> Workforce Information Network
Figure 10<br />
Age Group Distribution in <strong>Canadian</strong> <strong>Mining</strong> <strong>Industry</strong> in 2006<br />
35%<br />
30%<br />
<strong>Mining</strong> <strong>Industry</strong><br />
<strong>Canadian</strong> Labour Force<br />
25%<br />
20%<br />
15%<br />
10%<br />
5%<br />
0%<br />
15 to 24 years<br />
25 to 34 years<br />
35 to 44 years<br />
45 to 54 years<br />
55 to 64 years<br />
Source: <strong>Mining</strong> <strong>Industry</strong> Human Resources Council; Statistics Canada, 2006 Census.<br />
Retirement<br />
A number of factors are taken into account when a person decides to retire. Many workers consider such issues as<br />
savings; debt <strong>and</strong> other financial circumstances; health status; sense of attachment to work; family responsibilities;<br />
labour-market pressures; <strong>and</strong> retirement policies (government, labour, <strong>and</strong> organizational). Consequently, it is difficult<br />
to predict an individual’s expected retirement date.<br />
A reasonably conservative approach when estimating retirement rates is to consider historical retirement ages <strong>and</strong><br />
to create a profile of expected retirement based on age. The average retirement age in the mining industry over the<br />
past 20 years has been 59.5 years. This is lower than the current national average of 62 years. Depending on the age<br />
of entry into the mining workforce <strong>and</strong> career paths taken, some industry workers can be eligible to retire as young<br />
as 45 to 50 years old.<br />
Pending retirements <strong>and</strong> succession planning are priorities for industry employers. Respondents to <strong>MiHR</strong>’s<br />
2010 National Employer Survey indicated that, on average, over a third of their workforce will be eligible to retire<br />
in the next five years, with the largest proportion eligible in three to five years (12.5 per cent, as shown in Figure 11).<br />
Retirement rates will therefore have a major impact on hiring requirements in the near future.<br />
Burgeoning retirement rates <strong>and</strong> the aging workforce suggest that mining employers need to find ways of encouraging<br />
retirement-age workers to continue to support skills development in the future. Because depth of experience <strong>and</strong> skills<br />
are critical for the future performance of the mining industry, training <strong>and</strong> mentoring younger or newer employees is of<br />
critical importance. As noted above, most respondents to <strong>MiHR</strong>’s survey indicated that training <strong>and</strong> development activities<br />
are commonly outsourced. Encouraging retired workers to take on this role could be an excellent way for employers to<br />
ensure extended knowledge transfer <strong>and</strong> mentoring of younger workers after the mature workers retire. It also creates<br />
a niche of employment opportunities for retired or semi-retired workers.<br />
2010 <strong>Employment</strong> <strong>and</strong> <strong>Hiring</strong> <strong>Forecasts</strong><br />
21
Figure 11<br />
Proportion of <strong>Mining</strong> Workforce Eligible to Retire<br />
14%<br />
12%<br />
10%<br />
8%<br />
6%<br />
4%<br />
2%<br />
0%<br />
Currently eligible<br />
Eligible in the<br />
next 12 months<br />
Eligible in the<br />
next 1 to 2 years<br />
Eligible in the<br />
next 3 to 5 years<br />
Source: <strong>Mining</strong> <strong>Industry</strong> Human Resources Council, 2010 National Employer Survey.<br />
Workforce Participation Rates <strong>and</strong> Diversity<br />
As the current mining workforce approaches retirement <strong>and</strong> the industry’s traditional labour pool shrinks, it is critical<br />
that industry employers seek out <strong>and</strong> retain diverse sources of labour. Information on current workforce profile <strong>and</strong><br />
diversity strategies provide the foundation for building these initiatives.<br />
According to <strong>MiHR</strong>’s employer survey, diversity <strong>and</strong> inclusion are priorities. Nearly half of responding organizations have<br />
a formal policy or statement on diversity or inclusion. Generally speaking, these policies express an on-going commitment<br />
to employment equity; representation based on the geographic regions in which the company operates; <strong>and</strong> fair<br />
opportunities for all, based on skills <strong>and</strong> ability.<br />
The top five business reasons for investments in developing policies <strong>and</strong> increasing representation of diversity<br />
groups included:<br />
• improved community relationships<br />
• improved access to global talent<br />
• legal requirements (e.g., Impact <strong>and</strong> Benefit Agreements)<br />
• creating connections with stakeholders<br />
• corporate social responsibility<br />
Women in <strong>Mining</strong><br />
Compared to the <strong>Canadian</strong> labour force as a whole, women continue to be under-represented in the mining industry.<br />
Although their participation has increased steadily (from just over 10 per cent in 1996 to 14 per cent in the 2006 Census),<br />
22 <strong>Mining</strong> <strong>Industry</strong> Workforce Information Network
it is well below the labour force’s average participation rate of 47 per cent. Figure 12 shows that women’s participation<br />
in mining also remains lower than in other natural resources sectors where non-traditional roles are prevalent.<br />
Furthermore, in mining, women tend to be employed in administrative <strong>and</strong> clerical roles, as shown in Figure 13.<br />
Figure 12<br />
Proportion of Women in Natural Resource Industries<br />
Proportion of Women in the Workforce<br />
22%<br />
20%<br />
18%<br />
16%<br />
14%<br />
12%<br />
10%<br />
1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006<br />
Census Year<br />
<strong>Mining</strong> <strong>and</strong> exploration<br />
Forestry <strong>and</strong> logging<br />
Fishing, hunting <strong>and</strong> trapping<br />
Oil <strong>and</strong> gas extraction<br />
Source: WIM Canada, Ramp-Up: A Study on the Status of Women in Canada’s <strong>Mining</strong> <strong>and</strong> Exploration Sector, 2010.<br />
Figure 13<br />
Proportion of Women in Select <strong>Mining</strong> Occupations<br />
100%<br />
80%<br />
Women<br />
Men<br />
60%<br />
40%<br />
20%<br />
0%<br />
15 to 24 years<br />
Management —<br />
except administration<br />
<strong>and</strong> corporate services<br />
25 to 34 years<br />
Management —<br />
administration<br />
<strong>and</strong> corporate services<br />
35 to 44 years<br />
Professional —<br />
technical <strong>and</strong> scientific<br />
Professional —<br />
administration <strong>and</strong><br />
corporate services<br />
45 to 54 years<br />
Technical <strong>and</strong><br />
skilled trades<br />
55 to 64 years<br />
Labour, service<br />
<strong>and</strong> production<br />
Clerical <strong>and</strong> support<br />
Source: WIM Canada, Ramp-Up: A Study on the Status of Women in Canada’s <strong>Mining</strong> <strong>and</strong> Exploration Sector, 2010.<br />
2010 <strong>Employment</strong> <strong>and</strong> <strong>Hiring</strong> <strong>Forecasts</strong><br />
23
In 2010, Women in <strong>Mining</strong> (WIM) Canada, in partnership with <strong>MiHR</strong>, released findings from a detailed report on women’s<br />
participation: Ramp-Up: A Study on the Status of Women in Canada’s <strong>Mining</strong> <strong>and</strong> Exploration Sector. This report provides<br />
bench-marking statistics to measure improvements on the status of women in mining, along with information for<br />
employers on the barriers to engagement of female workers, <strong>and</strong> suggestions on how to increase their participation.<br />
The report reveals discrepancies between what employers perceive as barriers for women in the workforce <strong>and</strong> those<br />
described by female workers, <strong>and</strong> provides a foundation for developing targeted initiatives. 18<br />
Aboriginal Participation in <strong>Mining</strong><br />
Many industry employers consider hiring a local workforce <strong>and</strong> growing local companies to be top priorities for<br />
developing the future workforce. Overall, the Aboriginal population is relatively young, growing rapidly <strong>and</strong> subject to<br />
high rates of unemployment. Furthermore, hundreds of Aboriginal communities are in close proximity to active mining<br />
<strong>and</strong> exploration sites, as shown in Figure 14.<br />
Figure 14<br />
Aboriginal Communities <strong>and</strong> Active <strong>Mining</strong> <strong>and</strong> Exploration Sites<br />
Legend<br />
Coal mines<br />
Industrial mineral mines<br />
Metal mines <strong>and</strong> mills<br />
100 active exploration sites<br />
Aboriginal communities<br />
Source: Natural Resources Canada, Interactive Maps, Aboriginal Communities <strong>and</strong> Minerals <strong>and</strong> Metals Activity Map*<br />
*This interactive map can be found at http://mmsd.mms.nrcan.gc.ca/mapguide2008/<strong>Mining</strong>Map/AboriginalMapFrame_e.aspx<br />
18 For more information on Ramp-Up visit www.mihr.ca<br />
24 <strong>Mining</strong> <strong>Industry</strong> Workforce Information Network
Statistics Canada’s 2006 Census revealed that the mining industry is the most significant employer of Aboriginal peoples<br />
in Canada. Almost seven per cent of the mining workforce self-identify as being of Aboriginal descent (more than double<br />
the participation rate in the <strong>Canadian</strong> labour force). Furthermore, this marks a 40 per cent increase over figures reported<br />
in the 2001 Census, as shown in Table 5.<br />
Table 5<br />
Proportion of <strong>Mining</strong> Workforce of Aboriginal Descent<br />
% of Labour Force<br />
2001 CENSUS 2006 CENSUS<br />
Total <strong>Mining</strong> Labour Force 4.8 6.75<br />
Total <strong>Canadian</strong> Labour Force 2.5 3.07<br />
Source: Statistics Canada, 2001 <strong>and</strong> 2006 Census.<br />
Respondents to <strong>MiHR</strong>’s 2010 National Employer Survey indicated that, on average, 12 per cent of their workforces<br />
self-identify as being of Aboriginal descent. Over half of respondents specifically target Aboriginal peoples in their<br />
attraction, recruitment, retention <strong>and</strong> advancement activities. Furthermore, 40 per cent of respondents said that<br />
they had agreements in place that commit the organization to specific levels of employment or targeted business<br />
development <strong>and</strong> spending on Aboriginal communities.<br />
In addition, 38 per cent of respondents indicated that their organization is involved in partnerships or joint ventures with<br />
Aboriginal businesses that result from mine-development activities <strong>and</strong> operations. Other industry research indicates<br />
that more than 120 agreements are currently in place between Aboriginal communities <strong>and</strong> mining companies. 19<br />
These findings indicate that the proportion of the mining workforce who are of Aboriginal descent may have increased<br />
since the 2006 Census. Increasing participation of Aboriginal people in the sector <strong>and</strong> improving relationships with<br />
Aboriginal communities will remain a top priority for mining employers as the labour market tightens.<br />
New <strong>Canadian</strong>s in <strong>Mining</strong><br />
New <strong>Canadian</strong>s are a vital source of talent for meeting future workforce needs. Population projections indicate that new<br />
<strong>Canadian</strong>s will account for an increasing share of labour force growth in Canada over the next five to 10 years. 20 In fact,<br />
net change in the labour force would be negative by 2030 without immigration. There are not enough young people<br />
entering the labour force in Canada to offset the number of retirements <strong>and</strong> other departures from the labour force. 21<br />
<strong>Mining</strong> is a global industry with a mobile workforce. However, the industry is not attracting its share of new <strong>Canadian</strong>s.<br />
According to the Statistics Canada 2006 Census, immigrants account for only 8.7 per cent of the mining workforce.<br />
This is significantly lower than the overall proportion of 21 per cent in the <strong>Canadian</strong> labour force.<br />
19 For more information, go to www.mining.ubc.ca/files/<strong>Mining</strong>%20in%20Aboriginal%20Communities.pdf<br />
20 Human Resources <strong>and</strong> Skills Development Canada, Looking Ahead: A 10-Year Outlook for the <strong>Canadian</strong> Labour Market, Released January 2007.<br />
21 See for example, The Conference Board of Canada, <strong>Canadian</strong> Outlook: Long-Term Economic Forecast.<br />
2010 <strong>Employment</strong> <strong>and</strong> <strong>Hiring</strong> <strong>Forecasts</strong><br />
25
Immigrants to Canada — particularly those who are recently established — have typically had lower employment rates<br />
than the rest of the population. 22 What is more alarming is that unemployed recent immigrants also tend to have higher<br />
levels of education 23 than the rest of the unemployed population in the labour force. Many factors contribute to<br />
higher unemployment rates for immigrants, including lack of <strong>Canadian</strong> work experience; lack of recognition of foreign<br />
credentials or work experience; a preference to settle mainly in large urban centres; <strong>and</strong> language <strong>and</strong> cultural barriers.<br />
Nevertheless, mining employers are making great strides in attracting new <strong>Canadian</strong>s. Several approaches are<br />
producing positive results. Many employers are working to change perceptions among new <strong>Canadian</strong>s that mining is<br />
dirty, dangerous, <strong>and</strong> relatively “low tech.” Consequently, the industry is making efforts to improve new <strong>Canadian</strong>s’<br />
awareness about the work opportunities in the rural or remote areas where mining activities are typically located.<br />
Finally, employers <strong>and</strong> professional associations are working together to establish <strong>and</strong> improve on foreign-credential<br />
recognition programs <strong>and</strong> provide easy access to language training. This collaborative <strong>and</strong> integrated approach will<br />
ensure smooth transition <strong>and</strong> integration of new <strong>Canadian</strong>s into the mining labour market.<br />
Summary<br />
This chapter provided an economic overview of the <strong>Canadian</strong> mining industry <strong>and</strong> highlighted various labour market<br />
trends that impact the availability <strong>and</strong> quality of labour, including employment, turnover, productivity, educational<br />
attainment, compensation, labour relations, retirement projections <strong>and</strong> diversity.<br />
<strong>Employment</strong> in the sector is highly volatile, is directly related to commodity prices <strong>and</strong> is inversely related to gains in<br />
productivity. Paired with a rapidly aging workforce <strong>and</strong> lack of growth in the <strong>Canadian</strong> labour force, the sector will face<br />
significant challenges in the near future in finding the right talent to fill vacant positions.<br />
A two-faceted approach to meeting future workforce needs is recommended. First, industry employers are encouraged<br />
to make the best use of all available talent <strong>and</strong> continue with efforts to make mining an attractive option for talent<br />
groups such as women, Aboriginal peoples, new <strong>Canadian</strong>s <strong>and</strong> youth. Second, economic growth will come through<br />
improvements to productivity. To this end, employers should continue to make investments in workforce training <strong>and</strong><br />
development, <strong>and</strong> continue to support innovation <strong>and</strong> technological advances in the sector.<br />
22 Statistics Canada, 2009 Labour Force Survey Review.<br />
23 Statistics Canada, Study: Canada’s Immigrant Labour Market, Released in The Daily, September 2007.<br />
26 <strong>Mining</strong> <strong>Industry</strong> Workforce Information Network
3 Forecasted <strong>Hiring</strong> Requirements in<br />
the <strong>Canadian</strong> <strong>Mining</strong> <strong>Industry</strong><br />
As Chapter 2 illustrates, employment in the mining sector is significantly more volatile than in most other industries in<br />
Canada. Recent <strong>MiHR</strong> research demonstrated a strong correlation between employment patterns <strong>and</strong> the Minerals Price<br />
Index. When commodity prices are high, the industry responds with aggressive production <strong>and</strong> ambitious expansion<br />
plans. Employers exp<strong>and</strong> their workforces <strong>and</strong> the labour market tightens. When commodity prices are low, reduced<br />
production leads to temporary <strong>and</strong> permanent layoffs <strong>and</strong> mine closures, <strong>and</strong> expansion activities are delayed or<br />
cancelled. With workforce reductions, the labour market quickly softens.<br />
Despite this volatility, significant labour shortages threaten the industry’s viability <strong>and</strong> competitiveness in the near<br />
future. Previous labour market forecasts produced by <strong>MiHR</strong> demonstrate that even in a contraction scenario,<br />
the industry will face significant labour shortages. Tens of thous<strong>and</strong>s of workers will be needed simply to replace<br />
workforce attrition due to separation <strong>and</strong> retirements.<br />
Development of the Model<br />
The forecasts presented here are the result of extensive research <strong>and</strong> economic model development over the past<br />
five years. The first phase of development involved the creation of an initial forecast model, which was deployed in pilot<br />
projects in Saskatchewan, British Columbia <strong>and</strong> Ontario. The forecasts <strong>and</strong> corresponding reports outlined, by occupation,<br />
future hiring requirements in each provincial market. The model was then exp<strong>and</strong>ed <strong>and</strong> further developed into its current form.<br />
As part of the <strong>Mining</strong> <strong>Industry</strong> Workforce Information Network (MIWIN) program, <strong>MiHR</strong>’s employment forecasting<br />
capabilities have developed into a dynamic system that allows mining industry stakeholders to monitor key labour<br />
market parameters on an on-going basis. Currently, the features of the system include:<br />
• stable predictions, based on a variety of independent economic forecasts<br />
• occupation-level forecasts with both national <strong>and</strong> regional breakdowns<br />
• multiple forecasts of industry hiring requirements, based on various economic growth scenarios (contractionary,<br />
baseline <strong>and</strong> expansionary)<br />
2010 <strong>Employment</strong> <strong>and</strong> <strong>Hiring</strong> <strong>Forecasts</strong><br />
27
• an online portal where stakeholders can conduct sensitivity analyses based on changes to key economic variables<br />
• the ability to rapidly produce customized reports upon request<br />
This chapter presents forecasts of changes in mining employment <strong>and</strong> hiring requirements across Canada. Changes<br />
in employment by region are calculated using projected fluctuations in commodity price levels <strong>and</strong> estimates of labour<br />
productivity. These employment forecasts are then combined with projected non-retirement separation <strong>and</strong> retirement<br />
rates to produce estimates of hiring requirements. Three scenarios generate employment <strong>and</strong> hiring requirement<br />
forecasts over 10 years.<br />
Assumptions<br />
The forecasting model used here combines the effects of changes in commodity prices, growth in productivity, retirement<br />
rates <strong>and</strong> non-retirement separation rates, to produce estimates of hiring requirements. Three scenarios were developed<br />
to forecast requirements over a 10-year time horizon. Table 6 presents the key assumptions used in model development.<br />
(Note that all growth rates in Table 6 are compound annual growth rates (CAGR), with the exception of non-retirement<br />
separation rates, which are estimated based on national averages.) Further details on the methodology used for this<br />
forecasting exercise are presented in Appendix A.<br />
Table 6<br />
Key Forecast Assumptions<br />
Assumption Baseline Contractionary Expansionary Rationale<br />
Minerals<br />
Price Index<br />
Iron Ore<br />
Price Index<br />
Labour<br />
Productivity<br />
Median<br />
Retirement Age<br />
Non-Retirement<br />
Separation Rate<br />
World Bank Forecast,<br />
2009<br />
World Bank forecast less<br />
the st<strong>and</strong>ard deviation of<br />
historical price indices<br />
over the past 38 years.<br />
World Bank forecast plus<br />
the st<strong>and</strong>ard deviation of<br />
historical price indices<br />
over the past 38 years.<br />
−0.6% CAGR −4.2% CAGR 1.2% CAGR<br />
World Bank Forecast,<br />
Jan. 2010 (Note: used<br />
IMF growth rate for 2009)<br />
World Bank forecast less<br />
the st<strong>and</strong>ard deviation of<br />
historical price indices<br />
over the past 25 years.<br />
World Bank forecast less<br />
the st<strong>and</strong>ard deviation of<br />
historical price indices<br />
over the past 25 years.<br />
−3.8% CAGR −7.1% CAGR −1.9% CAGR<br />
1.8% CAGR 1.5% CAGR 2.0% CAGR<br />
59.5 years<br />
(Labour Force Survey,<br />
Statistics Canada)<br />
59.5 years<br />
(Labour Force Survey,<br />
Statistics Canada)<br />
59.5 years<br />
(Labour Force Survey,<br />
Statistics Canada<br />
The most reliable<br />
long-term forecast<br />
The most reliable<br />
long-term forecast<br />
<strong>Canadian</strong> Centre for Living<br />
St<strong>and</strong>ards data used for<br />
baseline estimate; historical<br />
st<strong>and</strong>ard deviation applied<br />
for contractionary <strong>and</strong><br />
expansionary scenarios<br />
Statistics Canada:<br />
Median Retirement Age<br />
for the <strong>Mining</strong> Sector<br />
(2000–2009)<br />
2.0% 2.0% 2.0% National Average*<br />
Source: <strong>Mining</strong> <strong>Industry</strong> Human Resources Council, Summer 2010.<br />
*For an individual province, the non-retirement separation rate could deviate from the national average, since a worker who leaves the province is lost to the provincial<br />
industry even if they are still working in mining sector elsewhere in Canada.<br />
28 <strong>Mining</strong> <strong>Industry</strong> Workforce Information Network
In general, model development research demonstrates that most variations in mining employment result from a<br />
combination of changes in metal <strong>and</strong> mineral prices, <strong>and</strong> in labour productivity. More precisely, the number of mining<br />
jobs is strongly related to commodity price levels, changes in productivity levels <strong>and</strong> the previous year’s employment.<br />
There is a strong positive correlation between commodity prices <strong>and</strong> employment, offset by a negative correlation<br />
between labour productivity <strong>and</strong> employment. In other words, when commodity prices rise, employment levels increase;<br />
whereas when labour productivity levels rise, employment levels decrease. <strong>Forecasts</strong> of hiring requirements require<br />
information on non-retirement separation rates <strong>and</strong> the average retirement age, in conjunction with age distribution<br />
of the mining workforce.<br />
Consensus forecasts with low, medium <strong>and</strong> high outlooks for commodity prices were blended to create the contractionary,<br />
baseline <strong>and</strong> expansionary projections. It is assumed that both the non-retirement separation rate (set at 2 per cent)<br />
<strong>and</strong> the median retirement age (set at 59.5 years) will remain constant in all three scenarios over the entire forecast<br />
period. 24 Labour productivity estimates, however, vary over the forecast period, based on projected economic changes<br />
affecting productivity. Combining the contractionary, baseline <strong>and</strong> expansionary scenarios for commodity prices <strong>and</strong><br />
labour productivity with respect to each of the employment drivers used in the model, yields projections for changes<br />
in employment in each of the six regions in Canada between 2010 <strong>and</strong> 2020.<br />
Retirement rates are calculated based on the age distribution of the mining workforce for each region, assuming a<br />
retirement age of 59.5 years. For Canada as a whole, retirement rates will increase rapidly from 1.9 per cent in 2010<br />
to 3.5 per cent in 2020. Based on the current age structure of their mining workforces, the provinces with the highest<br />
anticipated retirement rates by 2020 are Ontario (4.7 per cent) <strong>and</strong> Quebec (4.3 per cent). The lowest rates are in the<br />
Territories (2.8 per cent) <strong>and</strong> the Prairies (2.7 per cent). As noted above, these differences reflect the current age profile<br />
of the mining workforce in each of the regions.<br />
Total hiring requirements in any given year are defined as the sum of (i) the change in the number of jobs in the industry<br />
due to selected economic factors (changes in commodity prices <strong>and</strong> productivity) (ii) the number of workers who retire,<br />
<strong>and</strong> (iii) the number of workers who leave the industry for other reasons.<br />
National <strong>Hiring</strong> Requirements <strong>Forecasts</strong><br />
<strong>Forecasts</strong> for Canada are produced by aggregating the changes in employment <strong>and</strong> hiring requirements of the six regions<br />
considered in this study. 25<br />
<strong>Employment</strong> in the <strong>Canadian</strong> mining industry is expected to continue to decline over the forecast period, due to continuous<br />
gains in labour productivity <strong>and</strong> essentially zero growth in commodity prices. However, given the age composition of<br />
the industry, projected retirements <strong>and</strong> historical non-retirement separation rates, the forecast calls for cumulative hiring<br />
requirements of more than half of the current industry workforce by 2020.<br />
24 Readers are advised that an employment <strong>and</strong> hiring requirements forecasting tool for mining is available at www.mininghrforecasts.ca that allows users<br />
to vary these assumptions <strong>and</strong> see the impact on the resulting forecasts.<br />
25 Forecasting models were developed for all six regions of Canada. No specific model was built for Canada as a whole.<br />
2010 <strong>Employment</strong> <strong>and</strong> <strong>Hiring</strong> <strong>Forecasts</strong><br />
29
Table 7 presents the cumulative change in employment <strong>and</strong> replacement requirements under the three different scenarios<br />
over the 10-year horizon. In all three scenarios, replacement dem<strong>and</strong> for workers will exceed changes in employment<br />
driven by price <strong>and</strong> productivity changes. The largest increase in employment, at 16,900 by 2020, is forecast under the<br />
expansionary scenario. This estimate remains significantly lower than either the number of workers who would be retiring<br />
(70,720) or leaving the mining workforce for other reasons (46,920) over the same period.<br />
Table 7<br />
Total <strong>Hiring</strong> Requirements <strong>Forecasts</strong> – Canada<br />
By Scenario – 2020<br />
CHANGE IN<br />
EMPLOYMENT<br />
REPLACEMENT REQUIREMENTS<br />
RETIREMENT<br />
NON-RETIREMENT<br />
Cumulative<br />
HIRING<br />
REQUIREMENTS<br />
Contractionary −41,200 58,630 38,850 56,280<br />
Baseline −8,600 65,290 43,300 99,990<br />
Expansionary 16,900 70,720 46,920 134,540<br />
Source: <strong>Mining</strong> <strong>Industry</strong> Human Resources Council, Summer 2010.<br />
Figure 15 illustrates the overall hiring requirements of the industry on an annual basis over the forecast period.<br />
With the exception of 2011, virtually all hiring requirements will stem from the need to replace workers retiring or<br />
leaving the mining industry for other reasons. Each year there are substantial hiring requirements, with a slight<br />
peak of 12,000 workers in 2011.<br />
Figure 15<br />
Annual <strong>Hiring</strong> Requirements <strong>Forecasts</strong> – Canada<br />
Baseline Scenario – 2010 to 2020<br />
14,000<br />
12,000<br />
Change in <strong>Employment</strong> Non-Retirement Retirement<br />
Number of Workers Required<br />
10,000<br />
8,000<br />
6,000<br />
4,000<br />
2,000<br />
0<br />
–2,000<br />
–4,000<br />
2010<br />
2011<br />
2012<br />
2013<br />
2014<br />
2015<br />
2016<br />
2017<br />
2018<br />
2019<br />
2020<br />
Source: <strong>Mining</strong> <strong>Industry</strong> Human Resources Council, Summer 2010.<br />
30 <strong>Mining</strong> <strong>Industry</strong> Workforce Information Network
Table 8 summarizes the cumulative hiring requirements for Canada in 2012, 2015 <strong>and</strong> 2020, under the contractionary,<br />
baseline <strong>and</strong> expansionary scenarios. The baseline scenario projects the need to hire 29,080 workers by 2012, due<br />
to changes in economic factors <strong>and</strong> to increased retirements <strong>and</strong> other separations from the industry. If commodity<br />
prices perform better than expected in the baseline scenario, the total cumulative hiring requirements could grow to<br />
41,150 workers.<br />
Table 8<br />
Cumulative <strong>Hiring</strong> Requirements <strong>Forecasts</strong> – Canada<br />
By Scenario – 2012, 2015, 2020<br />
Cumulative <strong>Hiring</strong> Requirements<br />
2012 2015 2020<br />
Contractionary 15,160 28,120 56,280<br />
Baseline 29,080 53,150 99,990<br />
Expansionary 41,150 74,100 134,540<br />
Source: <strong>Mining</strong> <strong>Industry</strong> Human Resources Council, Summer 2010.<br />
By 2020, under the baseline scenario, cumulative hiring requirements are forecast at nearly 100,000 new mining workers,<br />
with a range of 56,280 for the contraction scenario to 134,540 workers under the expansion scenario.<br />
<strong>Forecasts</strong> by Occupation<br />
The current forecasting system includes up to 55 different mining occupations as defined by NOC-S categories. Given<br />
the constraints of NOC-S categories discussed in Chapter 2, these occupational categories represent about half the<br />
entire mining industry workforce in Canada (as defined by NAICS industry codes). 26 The selected mining occupations<br />
can be grouped into the following six general categories:<br />
• Trades <strong>and</strong> Undesignated Occupations<br />
• Professional <strong>and</strong> Physical Science Occupations<br />
• Managers <strong>and</strong>/or Financial Occupations<br />
• Support Workers<br />
• Technical Occupations<br />
• Supervisors, Coordinators <strong>and</strong> Foremen<br />
Table 9 provides estimates of cumulative hiring requirements for the baseline scenario under these broad occupational<br />
categories. Each category also lists requirements for a selection of occupations within the group that are most relevant<br />
to the industry. The greatest need will be in Trades <strong>and</strong> Undesignated Occupations, at 31,797, which represents about<br />
32 per cent of total hiring requirements by 2020. The other broad occupational categories expected to be in high dem<strong>and</strong><br />
are Supervisors, Coordinators <strong>and</strong> Foremen (6,258 workers, six per cent of total hiring requirements); Professional <strong>and</strong><br />
Physical Science (3,810 workers, 4 per cent); <strong>and</strong> Technical Occupations (3,204 workers, three per cent).<br />
26 Statistics Canada National Occupational Classification — Statistics (NOC-S) codes are the source of the occupational breakdown. The missing NOCs<br />
currently represent about half mining employment. Ultimately, the goal is to cover a greater share of mining employment through an extended<br />
list of occupations.<br />
2010 <strong>Employment</strong> <strong>and</strong> <strong>Hiring</strong> <strong>Forecasts</strong><br />
31
Table 9<br />
Cumulative <strong>Hiring</strong> Requirements – By Broad Occupational Categories <strong>and</strong> Relevant <strong>Mining</strong> Occupations<br />
Baseline Scenario – 2012, 2015, 2020<br />
CUMULATIVE HIRING REQUIREMENTS<br />
2012 2015 2020<br />
TRADES AND UNDESIGNATED OCCUPATIONS<br />
Plumbers 33 61 122<br />
Steamfitters, pipefitters <strong>and</strong> sprinkler system installers 317 576 1,018<br />
Carpenters 70 124 228<br />
Industrial electricians 480 880 1,735<br />
Welders <strong>and</strong> related machine operators 713 1,293 2,416<br />
Construction millwrights <strong>and</strong> industrial mechanics 1,029 1,898 3,796<br />
Heavy-duty equipment mechanics 635 1,145 2,185<br />
Heavy equipment operators (except crane) 1,585 2,829 5,166<br />
Drillers <strong>and</strong> blasters – Surface mining, quarrying <strong>and</strong> construction 116 210 401<br />
Truck drivers 1,379 2,487 4,441<br />
Construction trades helpers <strong>and</strong> labourers 304 553 1,029<br />
Other trades helpers <strong>and</strong> labourers 51 89 158<br />
Underground production <strong>and</strong> development miners 1,144 2,098 4,107<br />
Mine labourers 305 538 1,014<br />
Machine operators, mineral <strong>and</strong> metal processing 460 852 1,903<br />
Labourers in mineral <strong>and</strong> metal processing 544 1,027 2,260<br />
Total 9,165 16,660 31,797<br />
PROFESSIONAL AND PHYSICAL SCIENCE OCCUPATIONS<br />
Engineering managers 59 105 191<br />
Chemists 33 58 116<br />
Geologists, geochemists <strong>and</strong> geophysicists 382 682 1,258<br />
Other professional occupations in physical sciences 47 87 178<br />
Biologists <strong>and</strong> related scientists 5 9 17<br />
Civil engineers 28 53 105<br />
Mechanical engineers 100 187 348<br />
Electrical <strong>and</strong> electronics engineers 56 104 197<br />
Chemical engineers 44 81 156<br />
Industrial <strong>and</strong> manufacturing engineers 97 180 372<br />
Metallurgical <strong>and</strong> materials engineers 47 89 196<br />
<strong>Mining</strong> engineers 176 319 615<br />
Geological engineers 17 31 54<br />
Other professional engineers, n.e.c. 3 4 7<br />
Total 1,094 1,989 3,810<br />
Source: <strong>Mining</strong> <strong>Industry</strong> Human Resources Council, Summer 2010.<br />
32 <strong>Mining</strong> <strong>Industry</strong> Workforce Information Network
Table 9 (continued)<br />
Cumulative <strong>Hiring</strong> Requirements – By Broad Occupational Categories <strong>and</strong> Relevant <strong>Mining</strong> Occupations<br />
Baseline Scenario – 2012, 2015, 2020<br />
CUMULATIVE HIRING REQUIREMENTS<br />
2012 2015 2020<br />
MANAGERS AND/OR FINANCIAL OCCUPATIONS<br />
Financial managers 102 187 345<br />
Human resources managers 98 182 339<br />
Financial auditors <strong>and</strong> accountants 305 554 1,026<br />
Financial <strong>and</strong> investment analysts 28 51 104<br />
Specialists in human resources 90 162 313<br />
Total 623 1,136 2,127<br />
SUPPORT WORKERS<br />
Secretaries (except legal <strong>and</strong> medical) 397 724 1,306<br />
Administrative clerks 110 196 352<br />
Cooks 73 126 216<br />
Underground mine service <strong>and</strong> support workers 255 463 903<br />
Total 835 1,509 2,777<br />
TECHNICAL OCCUPATIONS<br />
L<strong>and</strong> surveyors 55 98 178<br />
Chemical technologists <strong>and</strong> technicians 136 252 493<br />
Geological <strong>and</strong> mineral technologists <strong>and</strong> technicians 384 688 1,311<br />
Biological technologists <strong>and</strong> technicians 11 18 30<br />
Civil engineering technologists <strong>and</strong> technicians 7 12 25<br />
Mechanical engineering technologists <strong>and</strong> technicians 63 118 226<br />
Industrial engineering <strong>and</strong> manufacturing technologists <strong>and</strong> technicians 60 115 236<br />
Electrical <strong>and</strong> electronics engineering technologists <strong>and</strong> technicians 108 199 404<br />
Drafting technologists <strong>and</strong> technicians 64 117 227<br />
L<strong>and</strong> survey technologists <strong>and</strong> technicians 12 23 43<br />
Mapping <strong>and</strong> related technologists <strong>and</strong> technicians 9 17 31<br />
Total 909 1,657 3,204<br />
SUPERVISORS, COORDINATORS AND FOREMEN<br />
Construction managers 54 99 176<br />
Primary production managers (except agriculture) 922 1,666 2,951<br />
Construction estimators 9 17 33<br />
Supervisors, mining <strong>and</strong> quarrying 499 906 1,777<br />
Supervisors, mineral <strong>and</strong> metal processing 314 594 1,321<br />
Total 1,798 3,282 6,258<br />
Source: <strong>Mining</strong> <strong>Industry</strong> Human Resources Council, Summer 2010.<br />
2010 <strong>Employment</strong> <strong>and</strong> <strong>Hiring</strong> <strong>Forecasts</strong><br />
33
The top occupations in terms of hiring requirements include:<br />
• Heavy-equipment operators (except crane)<br />
• Truck drivers<br />
• Underground production <strong>and</strong> development miners<br />
• Construction millwrights <strong>and</strong> industrial mechanics<br />
• Primary production managers<br />
• Welders <strong>and</strong> related machine operators<br />
• Heavy-duty equipment mechanics<br />
• Labourers in mineral <strong>and</strong> metal processing<br />
• Supervisors, mining <strong>and</strong> quarrying<br />
• Industrial electricians<br />
By 2020, hiring requirements for these occupations will total nearly 31,000 workers (about 30 per cent of total requirements).<br />
Regional <strong>Hiring</strong> Requirements <strong>Forecasts</strong><br />
This section presents forecasts of employment <strong>and</strong> hiring requirements for all six regions considered in this report.<br />
At the outset of this project, it had been anticipated that forecasts of employment dem<strong>and</strong> <strong>and</strong> hiring requirements<br />
would be produced for each province. However, certain Statistics Canada data limitations precluded the development<br />
of provincial forecasts. Model development was therefore restricted to the following geographical regions:<br />
• Atlantic<br />
• Quebec<br />
• Ontario<br />
• Prairies<br />
• British Columbia<br />
• Territories<br />
Note that comparisons across regions should be approached with caution. Economic factors affecting changes in<br />
employment differ for each region. For example, as noted in Chapter 2, there are large differences in labour productivity<br />
between Canada’s North <strong>and</strong> all other regions. In addition, there are large differences in the age profiles of the regions.<br />
These differences will have the greatest influence at the end of the forecast period, as Canada’s population continues to<br />
age. That said, a few differences are highlighted here before details for each region are presented.<br />
Table 10 provides an overview of the projected levels of mining employment for the years 2012, 2015 <strong>and</strong> 2020 under<br />
the baseline scenario. While total mining sector employment across Canada is declining, as noted earlier, the workforce<br />
is forecast to grow in two regions: the Prairies will see an average annual growth rate of 1.1 per cent between 2010 <strong>and</strong><br />
2020, <strong>and</strong> the Territories’ average annual growth rate over the same period will be 1.8 per cent. The remaining regions<br />
are expected to experience a contraction in total employment between now <strong>and</strong> 2020.<br />
Most of the reduction in the size of the <strong>Canadian</strong> mining workforce is due to increased productivity. The impact of<br />
productivity improvements is compounded by modest outlooks for commodity prices. The World Bank forecasts average<br />
annual growth in the Minerals Price Index ranging from –4.2 per cent to 1.2 per cent between 2011 <strong>and</strong> 2020, with<br />
a projected baseline annual change of –0.6 per cent. In Quebec, iron ore prices are used to establish the commodity<br />
price outlook for the region. This outlook predicts negative average annual growth for all scenarios: –7.1 per cent<br />
(contractionary), –3.8 per cent (baseline) <strong>and</strong> –1.9 per cent (expansionary).<br />
34 <strong>Mining</strong> <strong>Industry</strong> Workforce Information Network
Table 10<br />
Total <strong>Mining</strong> <strong>Employment</strong> by Region<br />
Baseline Scenario – 2012, 2015, 2020<br />
Average Annual<br />
Growth Rate<br />
2012 2015 2020 2010–2020<br />
Atlantic 10,400 9,400 8,000 −2.6%<br />
Quebec 39,100 35,100 33,700 −1.9%<br />
Ontario 41,900 38,700 36,100 −1.7%<br />
Prairies 87,300 89,500 90,700 1.1%<br />
British Columbia 20,600 19,600 18,700 −0.7%<br />
Territories 3,900 4,000 4,000 1.8%<br />
Canada 203,200 196,300 191,200 −0.4%<br />
Source: <strong>Mining</strong> <strong>Industry</strong> Human Resources Council, Summer 2010.*<br />
*Note: <strong>Employment</strong> growth rates differ year-over-year in the forecasting model. The last column presents the average annual growth rates of total mining employment<br />
over the forecast period.<br />
The non-retirement separation rate of two per cent a year used for all three scenarios applies to the mining industry in<br />
Canada as whole. In reality, this rate underestimates the non-retirement separation occurring within individual regions.<br />
This stems from the fact that an employee may leave one province but continue to work in the sector in another part of<br />
the country. Indeed, the mining workforce tends to be more mobile than in other sectors. Therefore, regional estimates of<br />
replacement requirements due to non-retirement separation presented in this report are considered to be conservative. 27<br />
Regional Occupational Breakdowns<br />
<strong>Hiring</strong> requirements by occupation are presented for each region. These regional occupational breakdowns are calculated<br />
by applying the estimated proportion of the workforce in each occupation (known as an occupational coefficient) to the<br />
forecasted total hiring requirements, for all occupations. These occupational coefficients are based on Statistics Canada<br />
2006 Census data <strong>and</strong> industry consultation conducted for previous versions of the forecasting model. Limited availability of<br />
census data precluded detailed analysis of occupational structure by region across all occupations in the mining industry. 28<br />
Atlantic Region<br />
<strong>Employment</strong> in the mining industry for the Atlantic region (Newfoundl<strong>and</strong> <strong>and</strong> Labrador, Nova Scotia, <strong>and</strong> New Brunswick)<br />
is expected to decline by an average of 2.6 per cent per year over the forecast period. However, there will be increased<br />
hiring requirements in the baseline <strong>and</strong> expansion scenarios, largely due to the need to replace workers who will retire<br />
or leave the sector for other reasons.<br />
Table 11 summarizes the cumulative hiring requirements for the Atlantic region under the contractionary, baseline <strong>and</strong><br />
expansionary scenarios for short, medium <strong>and</strong> long-term horizons. Under the baseline scenario, it is estimated that<br />
approximately 2,500 workers (representing 24 per cent of the current workforce) will need to be hired by 2020. However,<br />
27 These assumptions can be varied when using <strong>MiHR</strong>’s online forecasting tool. Please visit www.mininghrforecasts.ca.<br />
28 <strong>MiHR</strong> will continue to conduct primary research <strong>and</strong> analysis to further define the occupational coefficients, for each region.<br />
2010 <strong>Employment</strong> <strong>and</strong> <strong>Hiring</strong> <strong>Forecasts</strong><br />
35
if metal <strong>and</strong> mineral prices decline, there is a possibility that hiring requirements in the Atlantic region will decline,<br />
as shown in the industry contractionary scenario.<br />
Table 11<br />
Cumulative <strong>Hiring</strong> Requirements <strong>Forecasts</strong> – Atlantic Region<br />
By Scenario – 2012, 2015, 2020<br />
Cumulative <strong>Hiring</strong> Requirements<br />
2012 2015 2020<br />
Contractionary −90 −350 −520<br />
Baseline 1,020 1,610 2,530<br />
Expansionary 2,040 3,410 5,250<br />
Source: <strong>Mining</strong> <strong>Industry</strong> Human Resources Council, Summer 2010.<br />
Figure 16 illustrates Atlantic region hiring requirements on a year-over-year basis for the baseline scenario. Total<br />
employment will decline throughout the forecast period, based on the outlook for commodity prices <strong>and</strong> steady<br />
productivity gains. However, largely because of replacement dem<strong>and</strong>s, the industry will need to hire between<br />
400 <strong>and</strong> 550 workers each year.<br />
Figure 16<br />
Total <strong>Hiring</strong> Requirements <strong>Forecasts</strong> – Atlantic Region<br />
Baseline Scenario – 2010 to 2020<br />
600<br />
Change in <strong>Employment</strong><br />
Non-Retirement<br />
Retirement<br />
500<br />
400<br />
Number of Workers Required<br />
300<br />
200<br />
100<br />
0<br />
–100<br />
–200<br />
–300<br />
–400<br />
2010<br />
2011<br />
2012<br />
2013<br />
2014<br />
2015<br />
2016<br />
2017<br />
2018<br />
2019<br />
2020<br />
Source: <strong>Mining</strong> <strong>Industry</strong> Human Resources Council, Summer 2010.<br />
36 <strong>Mining</strong> <strong>Industry</strong> Workforce Information Network
In reference to specific occupations, hiring requirements in the Atlantic region under the baseline scenario will be<br />
greatest for heavy-equipment operators (except crane) <strong>and</strong> underground production <strong>and</strong> development miners, as<br />
shown in Table 12.<br />
Table 12<br />
Cumulative <strong>Hiring</strong> Requirements of Top 10 Occupations in Atlantic Region<br />
Baseline Scenario – 2012, 2015, 2020<br />
TOP 10 OCCUPATIONS<br />
CUMULATIVE HIRING REQUIREMENTS<br />
2012 2015 2020<br />
Heavy equipment operators (except crane) 89 141 222<br />
Underground production <strong>and</strong> development miners 64 101 158<br />
Truck drivers 43 68 107<br />
Welders <strong>and</strong> related machine operators 42 66 104<br />
Construction millwrights <strong>and</strong> industrial mechanics (except textile) 42 66 103<br />
Heavy-duty equipment mechanics 34 54 85<br />
Supervisors, mining <strong>and</strong> quarrying 31 49 78<br />
Industrial electricians 31 49 77<br />
Mine labourers 26 40 63<br />
Steamfitters, pipefitters <strong>and</strong> sprinkler system installers 20 32 50<br />
Source: <strong>Mining</strong> <strong>Industry</strong> Human Resources Council, Summer 2010.<br />
Quebec<br />
Forecasted iron ore prices in conjunction with productivity increases are expected to reduce overall mining employment<br />
in Quebec by close to 20 per cent by 2020. Nevertheless, due to the age of the workforce <strong>and</strong> other replacement needs,<br />
hiring requirements are significant. As shown in Table 13, over the next three years (to 2012), 2,850 workers will need<br />
to be hired under the baseline scenario. This estimate increases to 14,450 workers by 2020. The cumulative hiring<br />
requirements for Quebec in 2020 range from 7,880 workers in the contractionary scenario to 19,560 workers in the<br />
expansionary scenario.<br />
Table 13<br />
Cumulative <strong>Hiring</strong> Requirements <strong>Forecasts</strong> – Quebec<br />
By Scenario – 2012, 2015, 2020<br />
Cumulative <strong>Hiring</strong> Requirements<br />
2012 2015 2020<br />
Contractionary 630 1,500 7,880<br />
Baseline 2,850 5,370 14,450<br />
Expansionary 4,850 8,630 19,560<br />
Source: <strong>Mining</strong> <strong>Industry</strong> Human Resources Council, Summer 2010.<br />
2010 <strong>Employment</strong> <strong>and</strong> <strong>Hiring</strong> <strong>Forecasts</strong><br />
37
As shown in Figure 17, changes in employment in Quebec are pronounced over the first half of the forecast period.<br />
A short-lived recovery predicted for 2011 is expected to create 1,750 jobs. Reductions in employment will resume between<br />
2013 <strong>and</strong> 2020. This profile for Quebec’s mining employment is driven by projected movements in iron ore prices <strong>and</strong><br />
continuous gains in labour productivity. Nevertheless, hiring requirements in Quebec will remain positive due to replacement<br />
dem<strong>and</strong>s, with approximately 2,000 new hires required each year, on average.<br />
Figure 17<br />
Total <strong>Hiring</strong> Requirements <strong>Forecasts</strong> – Quebec<br />
Baseline Scenario – 2010 to 2020<br />
4,000<br />
Change in <strong>Employment</strong><br />
Non-Retirement<br />
Retirement<br />
3,000<br />
2,000<br />
Number of Workers Required<br />
1,000<br />
0<br />
–1,000<br />
–2,000<br />
–3,000<br />
–4,000<br />
–5,000<br />
2010<br />
2011<br />
2012<br />
2013<br />
2014<br />
2015<br />
2016<br />
2017<br />
2018<br />
2019<br />
2020<br />
Source: <strong>Mining</strong> <strong>Industry</strong> Human Resources Council, Summer 2010.<br />
Table 14 shows the occupations with the greatest hiring requirements in Quebec under the baseline scenario. In general,<br />
mining activities in Quebec will require more construction millwrights <strong>and</strong> industrial mechanics, machine operators,<br />
<strong>and</strong> workers in mineral <strong>and</strong> metal processing, which is consistent with the large amount of mineral refinery activities<br />
in Quebec compared to the rest of Canada.<br />
38 <strong>Mining</strong> <strong>Industry</strong> Workforce Information Network
Table 14<br />
Cumulative <strong>Hiring</strong> Requirements of Top 10 Occupations in Quebec<br />
Baseline Scenario – 2012, 2015, 2020<br />
TOP 10 OCCUPATIONS<br />
CUMULATIVE HIRING REQUIREMENTS<br />
2012 2015 2020<br />
Construction millwrights <strong>and</strong> industrial mechanics (except textile) 197 371 997<br />
Machine operators, mineral <strong>and</strong> metal processing 195 369 991<br />
Labourers in mineral <strong>and</strong> metal processing 166 313 840<br />
Underground production <strong>and</strong> development miners 138 260 698<br />
Heavy equipment operators (except crane) 116 220 590<br />
Supervisors, mineral <strong>and</strong> metal processing 106 201 540<br />
Heavy-duty equipment mechanics 79 148 399<br />
Supervisors, mining <strong>and</strong> quarrying 77 145 389<br />
Welders <strong>and</strong> related machine operators 76 143 386<br />
Industrial electricians 67 126 337<br />
Source: <strong>Mining</strong> <strong>Industry</strong> Human Resources Council, Summer 2010.<br />
Ontario<br />
Ontario’s hiring requirements are expected to be similar to those of Quebec. Between 2010 <strong>and</strong> 2020, total mining<br />
employment in Ontario is projected to decline from 44,000 to 36,100 — a contraction of approximately 18 per cent.<br />
However, an aging labour force combined with non-retirement separations will generate significant replacement<br />
dem<strong>and</strong>. As Table 15 shows, under the baseline scenario, Ontario will need to hire 4,280 workers by 2012 <strong>and</strong> close to<br />
18,000 by 2020. The latter number represents 41 per cent of the current mining workforce in Ontario. In the expansionary<br />
scenario, Ontario’s workforce will need to increase by almost 19,500, which is 45 per cent over current levels.<br />
Table 15<br />
Cumulative <strong>Hiring</strong> Requirements <strong>Forecasts</strong> – Ontario<br />
By Scenario – 2012, 2015, 2020<br />
Cumulative <strong>Hiring</strong> Requirements<br />
2012 2015 2020<br />
Contractionary 2,470 6,310 15,380<br />
Baseline 4,280 8,480 17,910<br />
Expansionary 5,730 10,040 19,460<br />
Source: <strong>Mining</strong> <strong>Industry</strong> Human Resources Council, Summer 2010.<br />
<strong>Mining</strong> employment in Ontario will decline over most of the forecast horizon, as shown in Figure 18. Replacement<br />
dem<strong>and</strong>, however, will be substantial, averaging about 2,300 workers each year between 2010 <strong>and</strong> 2020.<br />
2010 <strong>Employment</strong> <strong>and</strong> <strong>Hiring</strong> <strong>Forecasts</strong><br />
39
Figure 18<br />
Total <strong>Hiring</strong> Requirements <strong>Forecasts</strong> – Ontario<br />
Baseline Scenario – 2010 to 2020<br />
3,000<br />
Change in <strong>Employment</strong><br />
Non-Retirement<br />
Retirement<br />
2,500<br />
2,000<br />
Number of Workers Required<br />
1,500<br />
1,000<br />
500<br />
0<br />
–500<br />
–1,000<br />
–1,500<br />
2010<br />
2011<br />
2012<br />
2013<br />
2014<br />
2015<br />
2016<br />
2017<br />
2018<br />
2019<br />
2020<br />
Source: <strong>Mining</strong> <strong>Industry</strong> Human Resources Council, Summer 2010.<br />
Table 16 shows the occupations with the greatest hiring requirements in Ontario, under the baseline scenario.<br />
The province’s greatest requirements will be for underground miners, <strong>and</strong> mineral <strong>and</strong> metal processing labourers.<br />
Table 16<br />
Cumulative <strong>Hiring</strong> Requirements of Top 10 Occupations in Ontario<br />
Baseline Scenario – 2012, 2015, 2020<br />
TOP 10 OCCUPATIONS<br />
CUMULATIVE HIRING REQUIREMENTS<br />
2012 2015 2020<br />
Underground production <strong>and</strong> development miners 351 696 1,469<br />
Labourers in mineral <strong>and</strong> metal processing 238 472 995<br />
Construction millwrights <strong>and</strong> industrial mechanics (except textile) 225 445 940<br />
Heavy equipment operators (except crane) 155 308 650<br />
Supervisors, mineral <strong>and</strong> metal processing 131 259 546<br />
Industrial electricians 129 256 541<br />
Supervisors, mining <strong>and</strong> quarrying 108 214 451<br />
Machine operators, mineral <strong>and</strong> metal processing 101 201 424<br />
Heavy-duty equipment mechanics 91 181 382<br />
Truck drivers 84 166 350<br />
Source: <strong>Mining</strong> <strong>Industry</strong> Human Resources Council, Summer 2010.<br />
40 <strong>Mining</strong> <strong>Industry</strong> Workforce Information Network
Prairie Region<br />
Unlike other regions in Canada, the Prairie provinces (Manitoba, Saskatchewan <strong>and</strong> Alberta) are expected to experience<br />
employment growth over the next 10 years, largely due to expansion in support services activities. 29 <strong>Employment</strong> in<br />
the baseline scenario is expected to grow on average by 1.1 per cent per year throughout the forecast period. By 2020,<br />
employment in the Prairies will be about 13 per cent higher than in 2009.<br />
The bulk of the hiring requirements will occur earlier in the Prairie region than in most of the other <strong>Canadian</strong> regions<br />
(Figure 19). As shown in Table 17, the industry will need to hire 16,500 workers over the next three years in the baseline<br />
scenario, which represents nearly 32 per cent of the total cumulative hiring requirements in the Prairies over the 10-year<br />
forecast period. By 2020, this region is expected to have the largest hiring requirement in Canada, needing more than<br />
52,000 workers.<br />
Figure 19<br />
Total <strong>Hiring</strong> Requirements <strong>Forecasts</strong> – Prairie Region<br />
Baseline Scenario – 2010 to 2020<br />
6,000<br />
Change in <strong>Employment</strong><br />
Non-Retirement<br />
Retirement<br />
5,000<br />
Number of Workers Required<br />
4,000<br />
3,000<br />
2,000<br />
1,000<br />
0<br />
2010<br />
2011<br />
2012<br />
2013<br />
2014<br />
2015<br />
2016<br />
2017<br />
2018<br />
2019<br />
2020<br />
Source: <strong>Mining</strong> <strong>Industry</strong> Human Resources Council, Summer 2010.<br />
29 It should be noted here that these forecasts do not include employment in the oil s<strong>and</strong>s.<br />
2010 <strong>Employment</strong> <strong>and</strong> <strong>Hiring</strong> <strong>Forecasts</strong><br />
41
Table 17<br />
Cumulative <strong>Hiring</strong> Requirements <strong>Forecasts</strong> – Prairie Region<br />
By Scenario – 2012, 2015, 2020<br />
Cumulative <strong>Hiring</strong> Requirements<br />
2012 2015 2020<br />
Contractionary 10,260 17,320 27,240<br />
Baseline 16,500 30,400 52,250<br />
Expansionary 21,740 41,240 72,440<br />
Source: <strong>Mining</strong> <strong>Industry</strong> Human Resources Council, Summer 2010.<br />
Table 18 shows that occupations with the highest hiring requirements in the Prairies include truck drivers, heavy-equipment<br />
operators <strong>and</strong> production managers.<br />
Table 18<br />
Cumulative <strong>Hiring</strong> Requirements of Top 10 Occupations in Prairie Region<br />
Baseline Scenario – 2012, 2015, 2020<br />
TOP 10 OCCUPATIONS<br />
CUMULATIVE HIRING REQUIREMENTS<br />
2012 2015 2020<br />
Truck drivers 932 1,718 2,952<br />
Heavy equipment operators (except crane) 788 1,452 2,495<br />
Primary production managers (except agriculture) 661 1,217 2,092<br />
Construction millwrights <strong>and</strong> industrial mechanics (except textile) 446 821 1,411<br />
Welders <strong>and</strong> related machine operators 423 779 1,339<br />
Underground production <strong>and</strong> development miners 380 699 1,202<br />
Secretaries (except legal <strong>and</strong> medical) 297 547 941<br />
Heavy-duty equipment mechanics 273 504 866<br />
Steamfitters, pipefitters <strong>and</strong> sprinkler system installers 232 427 734<br />
Construction trades helpers <strong>and</strong> labourers 184 339 583<br />
Source: <strong>Mining</strong> <strong>Industry</strong> Human Resources Council, Summer 2010.<br />
42 <strong>Mining</strong> <strong>Industry</strong> Workforce Information Network
British Columbia<br />
In British Columbia, overall employment in the mining sector is expected to decline by an average of 0.7 per cent each<br />
year between 2010 <strong>and</strong> 2020. However, as shown in Table 19, cumulative hiring requirements in British Columbia will<br />
remain positive in all three scenarios.<br />
Table 19<br />
Cumulative <strong>Hiring</strong> Requirements <strong>Forecasts</strong> – British Columbia<br />
By Scenario – 2012, 2015, 2020<br />
Cumulative <strong>Hiring</strong> Requirements<br />
2012 2015 2020<br />
Contractionary 1,520 2,680 5,580<br />
Baseline 3,440 5,650 10,200<br />
Expansionary 5,070 8,030 13,610<br />
Source: <strong>Mining</strong> <strong>Industry</strong> Human Resources Council, Summer 2010.<br />
Figure 20 shows the change in employment <strong>and</strong> replacement requirements in British Columbia on a year-over-year basis.<br />
<strong>Employment</strong> is expected to increase in both 2010 <strong>and</strong> 2011, <strong>and</strong> to decline for the remainder of the forecast period.<br />
In contrast, replacement requirements are forecast to be relatively stable, averaging roughly 1,100 workers each year.<br />
Figure 20<br />
Total <strong>Hiring</strong> Requirements <strong>Forecasts</strong> – British Columbia<br />
Baseline Scenario – 2010 to 2020<br />
1,400<br />
1,200<br />
Change in <strong>Employment</strong><br />
Non-Retirement<br />
Retirement<br />
Number of Workers Required<br />
1,000<br />
800<br />
600<br />
400<br />
200<br />
0<br />
–200<br />
–400<br />
–600<br />
2010<br />
2011<br />
2012<br />
2013<br />
2014<br />
2015<br />
2016<br />
2017<br />
2018<br />
2019<br />
2020<br />
Source: <strong>Mining</strong> <strong>Industry</strong> Human Resources Council, Summer 2010.<br />
2010 <strong>Employment</strong> <strong>and</strong> <strong>Hiring</strong> <strong>Forecasts</strong><br />
43
Table 20 shows the occupations with the greatest hiring requirements under the baseline scenario. British Columbia<br />
requires significant numbers of heavy equipment operators, truck drivers <strong>and</strong> heavy duty mechanics.<br />
Table 20<br />
Cumulative <strong>Hiring</strong> Requirements of Top 10 Occupations in British Columbia<br />
Baseline Scenario – 2012, 2015, 2020<br />
TOP 10 OCCUPATIONS<br />
CUMULATIVE HIRING REQUIREMENTS<br />
2012 2015 2020<br />
Heavy equipment operators (except crane) 285 468 845<br />
Truck drivers 194 319 575<br />
Heavy-duty equipment mechanics 132 217 391<br />
Underground production <strong>and</strong> development miners 131 216 389<br />
Primary production managers (except agriculture) 129 211 381<br />
Construction millwrights <strong>and</strong> industrial mechanics (except textile) 104 171 308<br />
Geologists, geochemists <strong>and</strong> geophysicists 92 151 272<br />
Geological <strong>and</strong> mineral technologists <strong>and</strong> technicians 92 151 272<br />
Supervisors, mining <strong>and</strong> quarrying 85 139 251<br />
Welders <strong>and</strong> related machine operators 80 131 236<br />
Source: <strong>Mining</strong> <strong>Industry</strong> Human Resources Council, Summer 2010.<br />
Territories<br />
As discussed earlier in this report, employment in the Territories (Nunavut, Northwest Territories <strong>and</strong> Yukon) is expected<br />
to grow under all three scenarios. The relatively small workforce will increase from 3,500 to 4,000 under the baseline<br />
scenario by 2020. This is an average growth rate of 1.8 per cent, the fastest projected pace of job growth of all<br />
Canada’s regions.<br />
The bulk of the hiring requirements will take place earlier in the Territories than in the other <strong>Canadian</strong> regions. As shown<br />
in Table 21, the region will need to hire 1,100 workers over the next three years in the baseline scenario. This represents<br />
nearly 42 per cent of total projected hiring requirements by 2020. In that year, the Territories will need to hire 2,650 workers<br />
under the baseline scenario.<br />
Table 21<br />
Cumulative <strong>Hiring</strong> Requirements <strong>Forecasts</strong> – Territories<br />
By Scenario – 2012, 2015, 2020<br />
Cumulative <strong>Hiring</strong> Requirements<br />
2012 2015 2020<br />
Contractionary 540 680 850<br />
Baseline 1,100 1,740 2,650<br />
Expansionary 1,590 2,690 4,270<br />
Source: <strong>Mining</strong> <strong>Industry</strong> Human Resources Council, Summer 2010.<br />
44 <strong>Mining</strong> <strong>Industry</strong> Workforce Information Network
Figure 21<br />
Total <strong>Hiring</strong> Requirements <strong>Forecasts</strong> – Territories<br />
Baseline Scenario – 2010 to 2020<br />
Number of Workers Required<br />
400<br />
350<br />
300<br />
250<br />
200<br />
150<br />
100<br />
Change in <strong>Employment</strong><br />
Non-Retirement<br />
Retirement<br />
50<br />
0<br />
−50<br />
2010<br />
2011<br />
2012<br />
2013<br />
2014<br />
2015<br />
2016<br />
2017<br />
2018<br />
2019<br />
2020<br />
Source: <strong>Mining</strong> <strong>Industry</strong> Human Resources Council, Summer 2010.<br />
As shown in Figure 21, the Territories’ hiring requirements will moderate in the second half of the forecast period<br />
under the baseline scenario.<br />
Table 22 shows the occupations with the greatest hiring requirements in the Territories under the baseline scenario.<br />
Similar to other regions (Atlantic, Prairies <strong>and</strong> British Columbia), the occupations that require the most hires are heavy<br />
equipment operators, underground production <strong>and</strong> development miners, <strong>and</strong> truck drivers.<br />
Table 22<br />
Cumulative <strong>Hiring</strong> Requirements of Top 10 Occupations in the Territories<br />
Baseline Scenario – 2012, 2015, 2020<br />
TOP 10 OCCUPATIONS<br />
CUMULATIVE HIRING REQUIREMENTS<br />
2012 2015 2020<br />
Heavy equipment operators (except crane) 152 240 364<br />
Underground production <strong>and</strong> development miners 80 126 191<br />
Truck drivers 67 106 160<br />
Mine labourers 46 73 111<br />
Primary production managers (except agriculture) 41 65 99<br />
Cooks 36 57 86<br />
Geologists, geochemists <strong>and</strong> geophysicists 31 49 74<br />
Geological <strong>and</strong> mineral technologists <strong>and</strong> technicians 26 41 62<br />
Heavy-duty equipment mechanics 26 41 62<br />
Supervisors, mining <strong>and</strong> quarrying 26 41 62<br />
Source: <strong>Mining</strong> <strong>Industry</strong> Human Resources Council, Summer 2010.<br />
2010 <strong>Employment</strong> <strong>and</strong> <strong>Hiring</strong> <strong>Forecasts</strong><br />
45
4 Discussion<br />
In the near future, the <strong>Canadian</strong> mining industry will face significant challenges in meeting the dem<strong>and</strong> for workers.<br />
Slow labour force growth, combined with an aging population, will create significant pressures on the mining labour<br />
market. Despite remarkable achievements over the past five years in increasing the participation of new <strong>Canadian</strong>s,<br />
Aboriginal peoples <strong>and</strong> women in the mining workforce, there will nevertheless soon be a labour shortage.<br />
By 2020, the mining industry will need to hire nearly 100,000 workers in response to changes in employment <strong>and</strong><br />
replacement of workers retiring or leaving the industry (assuming a baseline scenario). This represents nearly one-half of<br />
the size of the 2009 workforce. If commodity prices perform better than expected, the total cumulative hiring requirement<br />
estimate could reach 134,540 workers under the expansionary scenario. <strong>Hiring</strong> requirements will vary across regions,<br />
generally due to the combined influences of regional productivity rates <strong>and</strong> the age composition of the workforce.<br />
Making the Best Use of All Possible Sources of Talent<br />
In recent years, the mining industry has adopted proactive strategies to attract, recruit <strong>and</strong> retain top talent, <strong>and</strong><br />
these initiatives will remain a priority over the next decade. Particularly remarkable achievements have been made<br />
in diversifying the mining workforce; however, industry stakeholders will continue, <strong>and</strong> likely intensify these efforts,<br />
to ensure an adequate supply of labour well into the future.<br />
New strategies may emerge to attract <strong>and</strong> recruit top talent <strong>and</strong> ensure that labour shortages do not restrict the mining<br />
sector’s competitiveness <strong>and</strong> ongoing success. In addition, to build the skilled workforce that will meet mining’s long-term<br />
needs, the industry must continue to develop innovative approaches to industry br<strong>and</strong>ing <strong>and</strong> career promotion, <strong>and</strong> to<br />
enhance training <strong>and</strong> education.<br />
Training <strong>and</strong> education efforts will be particularly important. As older workers retire <strong>and</strong> the age gap in the industry<br />
increases, young workers entering the mining workforce may lack some of the experience <strong>and</strong> proficiency of retiring<br />
workers. This new generation of workers may require training, both formal <strong>and</strong> on-the-job. Continued efforts to find<br />
creative ways to bridge the skills gap between new hires <strong>and</strong> retiring experienced workers will help train incoming<br />
workers <strong>and</strong> capture some of the lost knowledge <strong>and</strong> experience as older workers retire.<br />
2010 <strong>Employment</strong> <strong>and</strong> <strong>Hiring</strong> <strong>Forecasts</strong><br />
47
Furthermore, mining industry stakeholders will continue to work toward facilitating mobility of the workforce so that<br />
workers with the required skills can quickly move to fill jobs at new mining projects as they come into production. 30<br />
Efforts to recognize undesignated occupations in the sector will also strengthen the industry’s capacity to meet future<br />
needs, by both ensuring worker mobility <strong>and</strong> attracting young talent.<br />
Increasing Productivity<br />
Specifically, “productivity” refers to how efficiently <strong>and</strong> effectively a company can turn its inputs (e.g. labour <strong>and</strong> capital)<br />
into outputs, such as mining products <strong>and</strong> services. Workplace productivity can be increased through investments in<br />
skilled labour, capital, <strong>and</strong> technological change <strong>and</strong> innovation. For example, productivity may be boosted by ensuring<br />
that workers have the training, tools, <strong>and</strong> equipment required to maximize production. This can be achieved by<br />
organizational investments in professional development, new technology <strong>and</strong> high st<strong>and</strong>ards for upkeep of equipment.<br />
Innovation may also include developing new or improved managerial practices, enhancing working conditions <strong>and</strong><br />
adopting new approaches to work.<br />
In conclusion, human resources form the backbone of an industry-wide strategy for success. There are two broad ways<br />
in which the mining industry can meet future labour requirements: by making the best use of all available sources of<br />
talent, <strong>and</strong> through increases in productivity. Managing <strong>and</strong> growing a well-skilled workforce will help maintain <strong>and</strong><br />
promote Canada’s position in the global mining industry.<br />
30 For more information on <strong>MiHR</strong> initiatives regarding skills, learning, <strong>and</strong> mobility please refer to www.mihr.ca.<br />
48 <strong>Mining</strong> <strong>Industry</strong> Workforce Information Network
Appendix A<br />
This appendix outlines the methodology used to produce forecasts of hiring requirements in the mining industry for each<br />
region in Canada. It also describes the various data that were required, along with the development of the forecasting models.<br />
Forecasting models of employment were estimated based on the following six steps:<br />
Step 1: Collect <strong>and</strong> analyze data that may potentially explain changes in the number of jobs in each region;<br />
Step 2: Determine the driver(s) that explain the greatest level of variation in the number of jobs in each region by<br />
testing various model specifications through regression analysis;<br />
Step 3: Produce baseline, contractionary <strong>and</strong> expansionary forecasts for each driver determined in Step 2;<br />
Step 4: Combine Steps 2 <strong>and</strong> 3 to produce the forecasts for employment in each region under baseline, contractionary<br />
<strong>and</strong> expansionary scenarios;<br />
Step 5: Produce forecasts of the total hiring requirements given the change in employment (determined in Step 4)<br />
<strong>and</strong> estimates of retirement <strong>and</strong> non-retirement separation rates; <strong>and</strong>,<br />
Step 6: Calculate <strong>and</strong> apply occupational coefficients to produce estimates of hiring requirements by occupation.<br />
A flowchart depicting this methodology is provided in Figure A1.<br />
Figure A1<br />
<strong>Employment</strong> <strong>and</strong> <strong>Hiring</strong> Requirements Forecasting Model<br />
STEP 1:<br />
Data collection<br />
STEP 2:<br />
Model development<br />
<strong>and</strong> testing<br />
STEP 3:<br />
Research <strong>and</strong> obtain forecasts<br />
of employment drivers<br />
Collect <strong>and</strong> analyze<br />
potential drivers<br />
of employment<br />
Test various model<br />
specifications <strong>and</strong> choose<br />
model that best explains<br />
variation in employment<br />
Develop forecasts<br />
of employment drivers<br />
for each scenario<br />
STEP 4:<br />
Produce forecasts of<br />
employment, by regions,<br />
by scenario<br />
Age distribution<br />
of mining employees<br />
Retirement age,<br />
by scenario<br />
Non-retirement<br />
separation rate<br />
Changes in employment,<br />
by year, by region,<br />
by scenario<br />
Retirement rate,<br />
by year, by region,<br />
by scenario<br />
STEP 5:<br />
<strong>Hiring</strong> requirement,<br />
by region, by scenario<br />
Occupational<br />
breakdown in mining<br />
industry by region<br />
Inputs<br />
Outputs<br />
STEP 6:<br />
Occupational hiring<br />
requirement forecast,<br />
by region, by scenario<br />
Aggregate <strong>Canadian</strong><br />
hiring requirements<br />
2010 <strong>Employment</strong> <strong>and</strong> <strong>Hiring</strong> <strong>Forecasts</strong><br />
49
Several indicators were considered, based on their potential to explain changes in the level of employment in the mining<br />
industry at the regional level. Time series data was collected <strong>and</strong> plotted with respect to employment. Potential explanatory<br />
variables included:<br />
• Real compensation per hour worked<br />
• Real level of production<br />
• Industrial Materials Commodity Price Index<br />
• Minerals Price Index<br />
• Selected Commodity Price Indices such as gold <strong>and</strong> nickel (among others)<br />
• Labour productivity (real GDP per hour worked)<br />
<strong>Employment</strong> series for the mining industry were obtained from Statistics Canada. 31 Due to confidentiality rules,<br />
employment data is suppressed for various provinces <strong>and</strong> territories <strong>and</strong> was thus available only at higher level<br />
of aggregation. Model development was therefore restricted to the following regions:<br />
• Atlantic<br />
• Quebec<br />
• Ontario<br />
• Prairies<br />
• British Columbia<br />
• Territories<br />
<strong>Employment</strong> series dating back to 1984 were used in the creation of the employment models for the six regions.<br />
Furthermore, suppression of some provincial production data precluded the development of a weighted commodity price<br />
index specific to each region, as originally planned. However, in select cases where it was known that certain commodities<br />
represent a large proportion of the provincial total (for example iron ore in Quebec), individual price indices were used<br />
as explanatory variables. In all other cases, the Bank of Canada’s weighted Minerals Price Index was used. 32<br />
In general, it was found that metal <strong>and</strong> mineral prices in conjunction with labour productivity (to explain longer-term<br />
trends in employment) were the most statistically significant at explaining variations in the mining employment series.<br />
More precisely, the number of mining jobs in each region is strongly related to commodity price levels, labour productivity<br />
levels <strong>and</strong> the previous year’s employment. There is a positive correlation between commodity prices <strong>and</strong> employment,<br />
<strong>and</strong> a negative correlation between labour productivity <strong>and</strong> employment. In other words, when commodity prices rise,<br />
employment levels increase, whereas labour productivity increases lead to a decrease in employment levels. Note that<br />
the previous year’s employment was also positively related to current employment.<br />
31 <strong>Employment</strong> data was obtained through Special Aggregations from Productivity Measures, Income <strong>and</strong> Expenditure Accounts Division, Statistics Canada,<br />
February 2009.<br />
32 The Bank of Canada’s Minerals Price Index includes the following components: gold; silver; nickel; copper; aluminum; zinc; potash; lead; <strong>and</strong> iron.<br />
50 <strong>Mining</strong> <strong>Industry</strong> Workforce Information Network
Appendix B<br />
This Appendix lists the National Occupational Category for Statistics (NOC-S) codes 33 used throughout the report to partly<br />
define the mining industry. <strong>MiHR</strong> is engaged in ongoing, iterative research to include more NOC-S codes in this definition<br />
of the sector in order to better capture Statistics Canada data related to mining.<br />
A111 Financial managers<br />
A112 Human resources managers<br />
A121 Engineering managers<br />
A371 Construction managers<br />
A381 Primary production managers (except agriculture)<br />
B011 Financial auditors <strong>and</strong> accountants<br />
B012 Financial <strong>and</strong> investment analysts<br />
B021 Specialists in human resources<br />
B211 Secretaries (except legal <strong>and</strong> medical)<br />
B541 Administrative clerks<br />
C012 Chemists<br />
C013 Geologists, geochemists <strong>and</strong> geophysicists<br />
C015 Other professional occupations in physical<br />
sciences<br />
C021 Biologists <strong>and</strong> related scientists<br />
C031 Civil engineers<br />
C032 Mechanical engineers<br />
C033 Electrical <strong>and</strong> electronics engineers<br />
C034 Chemical engineers<br />
C041 Industrial <strong>and</strong> manufacturing engineers<br />
C042 Metallurgical <strong>and</strong> materials engineers<br />
C043 <strong>Mining</strong> engineers<br />
C044 Geological engineers<br />
C048 Other professional engineers, n.e.c.<br />
C054 L<strong>and</strong> surveyors<br />
C111 Chemical technologists <strong>and</strong> technicians<br />
C112 Geological <strong>and</strong> mineral technologists <strong>and</strong><br />
technicians<br />
C121 Biological technologists <strong>and</strong> technicians<br />
C131 Civil engineering technologists <strong>and</strong> technicians<br />
C132 Mechanical engineering technologists <strong>and</strong><br />
technicians<br />
C133 Industrial engineering <strong>and</strong> manufacturing<br />
technologists <strong>and</strong> technicians<br />
C134 Construction estimators<br />
C141 Electrical <strong>and</strong> electronics engineering<br />
technologists <strong>and</strong> technicians<br />
C153 Drafting technologists <strong>and</strong> technicians<br />
C154 L<strong>and</strong> survey technologists <strong>and</strong> technicians<br />
C155 Mapping <strong>and</strong> related technologists <strong>and</strong><br />
technicians<br />
G412 Cooks<br />
H111 Plumbers<br />
H112 Steamfitters, pipefitters <strong>and</strong> sprinkler system<br />
installers<br />
H121 Carpenters<br />
H212 Industrial electricians<br />
H326 Welders <strong>and</strong> related machine operators<br />
H411 Construction millwrights <strong>and</strong> industrial mechanics<br />
(except textile)<br />
H412 Heavy-duty equipment mechanics<br />
H611 Heavy equipment operators (except crane)<br />
H622 Drillers <strong>and</strong> blasters — Surface mining, quarrying<br />
<strong>and</strong> construction<br />
H711 Truck drivers<br />
H821 Construction trades helpers <strong>and</strong> labourers<br />
H822 Other trades helpers <strong>and</strong> labourers<br />
I121 Supervisors, mining <strong>and</strong> quarrying<br />
I131<br />
I141<br />
I214<br />
Underground production <strong>and</strong> development miners<br />
Underground mine service <strong>and</strong> support workers<br />
Mine labourers<br />
J011 Supervisors, mineral <strong>and</strong> metal processing<br />
J121 Machine operators, mineral <strong>and</strong> metal processing<br />
J311 Labourers in mineral <strong>and</strong> metal processing<br />
33 A complete list of NOC-S codes can be found on the Statistics Canada website at<br />
www.statcan.gc.ca/subjects-sujets/st<strong>and</strong>ard-norme/soc-cnp/2006/noc2006-cnp2006-menu-eng.htm<br />
2010 <strong>Employment</strong> <strong>and</strong> <strong>Hiring</strong> <strong>Forecasts</strong><br />
51
Notes
www.mihr.ca • www.mininghrforecasts.ca