Freelance Graphics - EADI-19092002.PRZ

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Freelance Graphics - EADI-19092002.PRZ

EADI

EU ENLARGEMENT IN A

CHANGING WORLD

FROM TRANSITION TO ACCESSION:

PERSPECTIVES FOR NEW MEMBERS

JANEZ POTOČNIK

LJUBLJANA - SEPTEMBER 19, 2002


LOCATION:

(SMALL)

HEART OF EUROPE

2 MILLION POPULATION


MAIN MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS OF SLOVENIA

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001

GDP GROWTH RATES 4.6 3.8 5.2 4.6 3.0

GDP/PC PPP (IN US$) 12800 13500 14500 15600 -

INFLATION (ANN.AV.) 9.1 7.9 6.1 8.9 8.4

UNEMPL. RATE (ILO) 7.4 7.9 7.6 7.0 6.4

GG BAL. (% OF GDP) -1.2 -0.8 -0.6 -1.4 -1.4

CA BAL. (US$ MIL) 12 -147 -783 -611 -67


ENLARGEMENT

PROCESS

FACT OR WISH?


POLITICAL WILL

PUBLIC SUPPORT

AND


...FROM HELSINKI


PRESIDENCY CONCLUSIONS

EU WILL BE INTERNALLY READY TO ENLARGE WITH

THE BEST PREPARED CANDIDATE COUNTRIES AT

THE END OF 2002 ...


...TO NICE...


PRESIDENCY CONCLUSIONS

EU WILL BE INTERNALLY READY TO ENLARGE WITH

THE BEST PREPARED COUNTRIES AT THE END OF 2002

...

... IN HOPE THAT THEY WILL BE ABLE TO TAKE PART IN

THE NEXT EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT ELECTIONS

ENLARGEMENT STRATEGY AND THE ROAD MAP FOR

THE NEXT 18 MONTH (THREE PRESIDENCIES)


... GOETEBORG ...


MAIN MESSAGE

ENLARGEMENT PROCESS

IS IRREVERSIBLE


PRESIDENCY CONCLUSIONS

PROVIDED THAT PROGRESS TOWARDS MEETING

THE ACCESSION CRITERIA CONTINUES AT UN

UNABATED PACE, THE ROAD MAP SHOULD MAKE IT

POSSIBLE TO COMPLETE NEGOTIATIONS BY THE

END OF 2002 FOR THOSE CANDIDATE COUNTRIES

THAT ARE READY. THE OBJECTIVE IS THAT THEY

SHOULD PARTICIPATE IN THE EUROPEAN

PARLIAMENT ELECTIONS OF 2004 AS MEMBERS.


... LAEKEN ...


PRESIDENCY CONCLUSIONS

THE EUROPEAN UNION IS DETERMINED TO BRING

THE ACCESSION NEGOTIATIONS WITH THE

CANDIDATE COUNTRIES THAT ARE READY TO A

SUCCESSFUL CONCLUSION BY THE END OF 2002, SO

THAT THOSE COUNTRIES CAN TAKE PART IN THE

EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT ELECTIONS IN 2004 AS

MEMBERS. . CANDIDACIES WILL CONTINUE TO BE

ASSESSED ON THEIR OWN MERITS, IN ACCORDANCE

WITH THE PRINCIPLE OF DIFFERENTIATION.


... AND SEVILLA


PRESIDENCY CONCLUSIONS

THE EUROPEAN COUNCIL REAFFIRMS THAT, , IF THE PRESENT

RATE OF PROGRESS IN NEGOTIATIONS AND REFORMS IS

MAINTAINED, THE EU IS DETERMINED TO CONCLUDE THE

NEGOTIATIONS WITH ... BY THE END OF 2002, , IF THOSE

COUNTRIES ARE READY. DRAFTING OF THE TREATY SHOULD

CONTINUE SO THAT IT CAN BE COMPLETED AS SOON AS

POSSIBLE AFTER THE CONCLUSION OF THE ACCESSION

NEGOTIATIONS. IT WOULD SEEM REASONABLE TO EXPECT

THAT THE TREATY OF ACCESSION COULD BE SIGNED IN

SPRING 2003. . THE OBJECTIVE REMAINS S THAT THESE

COUNTRIES SHOULD PARTICIPATE IN THE ELECTIONS FOR THE

EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT IN 2004 AS FULL MEMBERS.


EU ENLARGEMENT

EUROBAROMETER - RELEASE APRIL 2002

SUPPORT FOR ENLARGEMENT

AVERAGE %, IN FAVOUR OF THE 13 APPLICANT COUNTRIES JOINING THE EU

GREECE

SWEDEN

DENMARK

SPAIN

ITALY

IRELAND

NETHERLANDS

PORTUGAL

FINLAND

LUXEMBOURG

EU15

BELGIUM

GERMANY

AUSTRIA

UK

FRANCE

0 50 100

YES AGAINST DO NOT KNOW


EUROPEAN UNION

MAIN POTENTIAL BARRIERS

SOME INTEREST- FOCUSED CONDITIONS OF THE MEMBER

STATES

TIMELY RATIFICATION OF THE TREATY OF NICE

ELECTIONS IN SOME MEMBER STATES

ATTEMPTS TO LINK THE OUTSTANDING ISSUES BETWEEN

(NEIGHBOURING) COUNTRIES TO THE PROCESS OF

ALIGNMENT WITH THE ACQUIS AND THE EU ACCESSION

QUESTIONS


AND IN CANDIDATE

COUNTRIES


COUNTRIES BY THE NUMBER OF

PROVISIONALLY CLOSED CHAPTERS

CYPRUS, ESTONIA, LITHUANIA, SLOVENIA 28

LATVIA, SLOVAKIA 27

HUNGARY, POLAND 26

CZECH REPUBLIC 25

2004

MALTA 24

BULGARIA 21

ROMANIA 13


REFERENDUM - HOW WOULD YOU WOTE

WOULD WOTE - % OF RESPONDENTS AGED 18 AND OVER

ROMANIA

BULGARIA

HUNGARY

TURKEY

SLOVAKIA

AC13

CYPRUS

SLOVENIA

CZECH REP.

POLAND

LITHUANIA

LATVIA

MALTA

ESTONIA

EU ENLARGEMENT

EUROBAROMETER - RELEASE APRIL 2002

0 50 100

YES AGAINST NO ANSWER NOT VOTE


ACCESSION PROCESS OF OWN COUNTRY

% OF VERY WELL AND WELL INFORMED - % OF NOT VERY WELL AND NOT AT ALL INFORMED

SLOVENIA

MALTA

CYPRUS

SLOVAKIA

POLAND

BULGARIA

CZECH REP.

ROMANIA

HUNGARY

AC13

LATVIA

LITHUANIA

TURKEY

ESTONIA

EUROBAROMETER - APPLICANT COUNTRIES

DECEMBER 2001

-70 -60 -50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20

PERCENTAGE POINTS


CANDIDATE COUNTRIES

MAIN POTENTIAL BARRIERS

TO ACHIEVE CRITICAL MASS OF THE IMPLEMENTATION OF THE

EU ACQUIS

POLITICAL STABILITY, STRENGTH AND WILL FOR REACHING

NECESSARY (REALISTIC AND CONSTRUCTIVE) AGREEMENTS

UNREASONABLE ATTENTION TO THE (INTERNAL) PROBLEMS

NOT IMPORTANT AND DECISIVE IN THE EU ACCESSION

PROCESS, WHICH COULD BE EXPLOITED TO INFLUENCE

PUBLIC OPINION

LOW PUBLIC SUPPORT IN CANDIDATE COUNTRIES EXPRESSED

IN NEGATIVE REFERENDUM RESULTS


ENLARGEMENT

PREVIOUS,CURRENT

AND NEXT


ENLARGEMENT:

PREVIOUS AND CURRENT

PRESENT ENLARGEMENT:

28% OF POPULATION,

33% OF AREA,

4% OF EU'S GDP (APPROXIMATELY THAT OF BELGIUM)


ENLARGEMENT:

PREVIOUS AND CURRENT

GDP/PC AT PPP

LITTLE LESS THAN 1/3 OF THE EU AVERAGE

HIGHEST: LOWEST IN EU 1:1.8

HIGHEST: LOWEST IN ASSOCIATED COUNTRIES 1:3.2


ENLARGEMENT:

PREVIOUS AND CURRENT

... AND NEXT

NEXT WAVE OF ENLARGEMENT

HOW MANY WAVES OF ENLARGEMENT OR WHERE ARE THE LIMITS

OF EUROPEAN UNION

FROM "POST SECOND WORLD WAR STABILITY PACT" TO THE

"ELITE CLUB" OF THE ECONOMICALLY MOST DEVELOPMENT

NATIONS AND BACK?


TRANSITION

ACCESSION


EUROPEAN UNION:

MEANS OR AN END?

THE MAIN GOAL: DEMOCRATISATION AND

DEVELOPMENT OF THE WESTERN-EUROPEAN

TYPE OF MARKET ECONOMY

MEMBERSHIP WOULD BE A PROOF THAT OUR

OWN GOALS HAVE ACTUALLY BEEN FULFILLED


1995

1996

THE STRATEGY FOR ECONOMIC

DEVELOPMENT (I): APPROACHING EUROPE -

GROWTH, COMPETITIVENES AND INTEGRATION

STRATEGY OF INTERNATIONAL

ECONOMIC RELATIONS: FROM

FROM ASSOCIATED TO

FULL-FLEDGED MEMBERSHIP IN THE EUROPEAN UNION

1998

2002

STRATEGY OF THE RS FOR ACCESSION

TO THE EUROPEAN UNION: ECONOMIC AND

SOCIAL PART

THE STRATEGY FOR ECONOMIC

DEVELOPMENT (II): SUSTAINABILITY,

COMPETITIVENESS, MEMBERSHIP IN HE EU


THE STRATEGY FOR ECONOMIC

DEVELOPMENT (I):

VALUES AND GOALS:

MARKET ECONOMY, BASED ON PRIVATE OWNERSHIP

PRIVATE OWNERSHIP

FASTER ECONOMIC GROWTH AND CATCHING-UP WITH

DEVELOPED EUROPEAN COUNTRIES

HIGHER COMPETITIVENESS OF SLOVENE ECONOMY

INCLUSION INTO EUROPEAN INTEGRATIONS

PERMANENT SUSTAINEMENT OF ECONOMIC GROWTH

FROM THE ECOLOGICAL, SOCIAL AND ETHNICAL

STANDPOINT


STRATEGY OF INTERNATIONAL

ECONOMIC RELATIONS:

KEY GOALS:

FASTER ECONOMIC GROWTH AND CATCHING UP WITH

THE DEVELOPED EUROPEAN COUNTRIES

INTERNATIOANLIZATION OF THE ECONOMY AS A WHOLE

IN LINE WITH A NEW CONCEPT OF COMPETITIVENESS

RISING SHARE OF FOREIGN TRADE IN GOODS AND

SERVICES IN GDP, TOGETHER WITH THE MAINTENANCE

OF THE EXTERNAL EQUILIBRIUM AS A FACTOR OF

ECONOMIC STABILITY

FULL MEMBERSHIP IN THE EU


STRATEGY OF THE RS FOR ACCESSION

TO THE EUROPEAN UNION:

MAIN COMPONENTS OF MAIN REFORMS'

TIME SCHEDULE

ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL POLICY MEASURES:

DESCRIPTION AND SEQUENCING

EXPECTED MACROECONOMIC EFFECTS OF

INTEGRATION INTO THE EUROPEAN UNION

NATIONAL PROGRAM FOR THE ADOPTION OF

THE ACQUIS COMMUNITAIRE


THE STRATEGY FOR ECONOMIC

DEVELOPMENT (II):

NEW DEVELOPMENT

PARADIGM:

SUSTAINABILITY IS THE LEADING

PRINCIPLE IN SEDS ADOPTED IN 2001

THE THREE COMPONENTS OF WELFARE -

ECONOMIC, SOCIAL AND ENVIRONMENTAL -

CORRESPOND WITH ECONOMIC, SOCIAL AND

ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS OF DEVELOPMENT


CURRENT ROLE OF

ACCESSION

ROLE OF

SPEEDING UP THE FULFILMENT OF OUR OWN GOALS

IMPROVING AND IN SOME CASES EVEN ESTABLISHING ORDER

AND STABILITY OF THE ECONOMY AND SOCIETY AS A WHOLE

OVERCOMING THE EXISTING AND POTENTIAL BARRIERS TO

THE NECESSARY CHANGES (POLITICAL POWER, ECONOMIC

MONOPOLIES)

ADDITIONAL PRESSURE FOR THE NECESSARY IMPROVEMENT

IN COMPETITIVENESS OF ALL ECONOMIC ACTORS


FINAL ROLE OF

ACCESSION

FINAL

TO CHANGE CURRENT STATE OF MIND BY A REFRESHED

OPEN SOCIETY WIND AND INCREASE SELF-CONFIDENCE

ESTABLISHMENT OF COMMON EUROPEAN RULES RESULTING

IN INCREASED TRANSPARENCY, STABILITY AND

PREDICTABILITY OF THE ECONOMY

BECOMING A PART OF EUROPEAN AREA OF STABILITY,

SECURITY AND PROSPERITY BASED ON POSITIVE INTERNAL

SOLUTION SEEKING INSTITUTIONAL FRAMEWORK


WE ARE IN THE MOST DELICATE PHASE OF

NEGOTIATIONS...

...WHICH REQUIRES A GREAT DEAL OF

RATIONALITY AND MUTUAL TRUST

AND (OF COURSE)...

...A LITTLE BIT OF LUCK...

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